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moses
moses
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Mission146
July 17th, 2021 at 6:44:53 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Moses, I donít know if you are saying this or if you are quoting someone.
But you need 12 small cards versus 1 big card for a max bet on single deck? That canít be right



HH. Based on a 48 card count. The 8 is silent. You can assign tag value to each side. But you end up with 24 large and 24 small card. If 12 small come out at the beginning of the deck, there are 67% large remaining and 33% small. Firstly, that never happens. A 67%/33% ratio occurs maybe 1.3%. This would warrant a Max bet.

Now, 8 small come out? Also, very very rare. But your ratio is 60%-40%. But this overall ratio will occur about 6%. This is when you push the bet to casino tolerance and where the game is won.

Strong deck compositions usually do not happen until after the 20th card is dealt.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 17, 2021
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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Mission146
July 17th, 2021 at 7:12:34 PM permalink
Quote: moses

HH. Based on a 48 card count. The 8 is silent. You can assign tag value to each side. But you end up with 24 large and 24 small card. If 12 small come out at the beginning of the deck, there are 67% large remaining and 33% small. Firstly, that never happens. A 67%/33% ratio occurs maybe 1.3%. This would warrant a Max bet.

Now, 8 small come out? Also, very very rare. But your ratio is 60%-40%. But this overall ratio will occur about 6%. This is when you push the bet to casino tolerance and where the game is won.

Strong deck compositions usually do not happen until after the 20th card is dealt.


Moses anyone using a regular counting system not your column count would have their max bet out by a true plus 5 or 6 if using hi low as an example.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
moses
moses
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July 17th, 2021 at 7:24:02 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Moses anyone using a regular counting system not your column count would have their max bet out by a true plus 5 or 6 if using hi low as an example.



Hunter my TC at 67%/33% runs betwen 3.7 and 4. That is quarter deck floored with Exact calculation. 1/2 point box checked.

60% to 65% runs 2.25 to 3.6. 59% is 2 to 2.25 and requires a little more strategy.
moses
moses
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July 17th, 2021 at 7:27:42 PM permalink
So how many hands would it take from the beginning of an 8 deck shoe heada up to get a HiLO TC 5?
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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July 17th, 2021 at 7:38:57 PM permalink
Quote: moses

So how many hands would it take from the beginning of an 8 deck shoe heada up to get a HiLO TC 5?

I donít know how many hands it would take but if after one deck had been played you would need a running count of 35 to have a 5 true count.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
moses
moses
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July 17th, 2021 at 7:59:45 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I donít know how many hands it would take but if after one deck had been played you would need a running count of 35 to have a 5 true count.


Okay. One deck is removed. According to Jwoo post 66 hands are played over the remain 5 decks? About 13 rounds per deck.

RC 35 seems extreme after 52 cards. So he lost 44 rounds at $450 max bet to get to -19800. That doesnt account for 9 hands and still assumes he went 0-44. Extremely unlikely. No?

Point is, it's an interesting thread IF you eliminate the vulgarity and chest puffing. He totally ripped the guy. If words were fists he'd be up on assualt charges.

Now Ive played more single deck hands than anyone in the last decade. I ran so many sims they call me Phil. Ive studied thousands of charts in those sims. Ive converted a column count to a conventional count which they said couldnt be done.

...And I dont understand his math either.

But if I go 0-44 on max bets. Maybe, just maybe that is a signal ones game needs some work. No?
Last edited by: moses on Jul 17, 2021
moses
moses
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July 17th, 2021 at 8:55:50 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Is there another side of a conversation that isn't showing up here?



KJ writes:
And finally...there is a learning process involved with heat and backoff. My first few years I would get a backoffed off 7-10 times a year. then it dropped to 4-7 or so and now it is 2-3. You just learn to read people and see when your play has crossed over the comfort level before a backoff happens. Again, this is all about short sessions, playing limits that are well tolerated and accepted and not overplaying any casino, and personnel.



Now this is a biggie IMO. Are casinos really that misinformed and lenient in Vegas? A backoff for me was anywhere from a handshake and goodbye to a "get out, you're done" holler from the pit.

If I did go back it never went well. These folks have the memory of an elephant.

Really, they ask you to leave this often? And you go back without conflict or recourse in a few months?
moses
moses
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July 18th, 2021 at 10:33:04 AM permalink
A backoff is often the most humiliating, demeaning, embarrassing, and confusing moment in a blackjack players career.

The perception of others is that you are just shy of being a criminal. And for what? We used our brain and broke some unwritten rules.

I think it was after my 3rd backoff, that I knew my game had to change. My choices were to play within the confines of casino tolerances or find something else to do and somewhere else to live.

This is when I sought out and found Norm's products. August 2013.

Now KJ was backed off too many times to count. And yet went back and still plays today. I would've been tared and feathered.
moses
moses
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July 18th, 2021 at 10:39:29 AM permalink
The $450 max bet x 44 hands post was by someone other than KJ. Unless that was a puppet.

No my purpose isnt to "hammer" KJ. I only used the numbers provided in that thread. It has nothing to do with what I did in Reno.

It has everything to do with listing my house and moving to Vegas.
moses
moses
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July 18th, 2021 at 10:55:10 AM permalink
KJ writes;
There are other things he says (even yesterday) that are bonkers like winning 60% of his max bets. But I really don't want to get into all that again.

It's really very simple. But one would need to dig deep into CV Data which you clearly have never done. Now, it's possible to win 60% of large bets and have a volatile game not worthwhile.

But no, you will never achieve that or anything close with HILO.

All I know to say is "come on up and you be the house." Ive done my homework.

As for rules. Im not aware of any rules Im breaking at WOV? I havent used profanity. Only ask questions. I thought this was a forum with several blackjack players.

Have I done something worse than MDawg?. Sorry, I didnt read those posts. But KJ was all fired up about it.

There are at least two forums with threads dedicated to WOV concerns. Boy lemme tell ya, they are whoppers. WOV did an extensive interview with KJ back in the day.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 18, 2021

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