billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 24th, 2020 at 9:21:16 AM permalink
2020 was a wasted year for many of us. My revenues may end up down 90% from last year, but I'm better off than some 250,000 of my Countrymen. F.I.D.O.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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September 24th, 2020 at 10:15:52 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

2020 was a wasted year for many of us. My revenues may end up down 90% from last year, but I'm better off than some 250,000 of my Countrymen. F.I.D.O.




I think you left off 3 zeroes
the population of the U.S. is about 328,000,000


if you were only better off than some 250,000 of your Countrymen you would be living in poverty.............(-:\



*
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 24th, 2020 at 11:10:00 AM permalink
Seriously?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 24th, 2020 at 11:20:44 AM permalink
Quote: camz1969

KewlJ, do you ever ‘cycle’ your bet spread/risk/EV based on whether you are up for the year?


No I don't. My spread and max bet is more a function of what I have decided is better tolerated for the places I play. That means the same game at a strip property on a sat night will be very different than a local property on a weekday afternoon.

The upping my stakes this year had more to do with quickly wanting to accumulate more EV. I thought pit folks would be distracted by circumstances and have new responsibilities that would allow me to play higher stakes with no increased heat and that happened for a while. But things eventually settle down somewhat closer to "normal".

I have no regrets for taking advantage of the circumstances even though it didn't quite work out because I was on the down side of variance.

Now just back to my normal limits which I believe allow for longevity, which is my top priority.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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September 24th, 2020 at 3:52:32 PM permalink
Kewlj I have little knowledge of statistics. But how far off are you from a normal amount of variance? (If there is such a thing as a normal amount of variance.)
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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September 24th, 2020 at 4:30:08 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Kewlj I have little knowledge of statistics. But how far off are you from a normal amount of variance? (If there is such a thing as a normal amount of variance.)



There is Alan. It is called standard deviations. It goes something like this. A player should be within 1 standard deviation, I forget the number, like 70% of the time, be within 2 standard deviations like 95% of the time and within 3 standard deviations, 99%. (I forget the first number....that 70% is just a guess).

This works great for a player who plays one similar game all the time, using the same or similar bet spread and max bet. But when you start mixing and matching those things as I do, those standard deviations get all screwed up. So I don't even bother to look and see how far off I am at any given time. I suspect my current results are pretty far off. Probably close to that 3 standard deviations, but that is just a guess.
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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September 25th, 2020 at 4:44:10 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

No I don't. My spread and max bet is more a function of what I have decided is better tolerated for the places I play. That means the same game at a strip property on a sat night will be very different than a local property on a weekday afternoon.

The upping my stakes this year had more to do with quickly wanting to accumulate more EV. I thought pit folks would be distracted by circumstances and have new responsibilities that would allow me to play higher stakes with no increased heat and that happened for a while. But things eventually settle down somewhat closer to "normal".

I have no regrets for taking advantage of the circumstances even though it didn't quite work out because I was on the down side of variance.

Now just back to my normal limits which I believe allow for longevity, which is my top priority.



Thanks for sharing your experiences with us Kewlj, I'm sorry that this was a bad year for you. I strongly believe that accumulated EV is a very important thing to remember, as hard as I can imagine it must be right now I am sure with your experience level and determination you will bounce back strong! The next few years could be extremely lucrative for you, all can do is trust your playing and simulation, know your game, play it right, and it will all work out in the end eventually. Please keep us updated!
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
Joined: Jul 13, 2012
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September 25th, 2020 at 10:33:53 PM permalink
Makes me wonder if the casinos have an arsenal to control the odds. That they have never deployed til probably now.

To my surprise, I got a $1200 stimilus check a couple weeks ago.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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October 16th, 2020 at 12:52:20 PM permalink
Quote: theOmega623

Thanks for sharing your experiences with us Kewlj, I'm sorry that this was a bad year for you. I strongly believe that accumulated EV is a very important thing to remember,



I think I will take this opportunity to update this most frustrating of years. I have moved into the black (for the moment} for the year, but am basically just straddling near the in the black / in the red line. And while slightly in the black at the moment, I am some 70k below expectation or what I have come to call "accumulated EV".

It just seems every time I have a couple winning sessions and think maybe it is the start of something, I almost immediately fall back in the next day or so. It is a real stuck in the mud, spinning your wheels kind of feeling. :(

This year has almost nothing to do with Covid-19 or any change in conditions due to covid-19. I say "almost" because I did up my stakes after the casino shutdown for a few months, to quickly recover some EV, and it just so happens variance was not kind to me, while I was playing those higher stakes. So that has contributed, but is not the cause of this far below EV year I am in.

I have had this kind of year before, without checking records, I am going to say 2013 where I ended with 27k blackjack win vs expectation (or accumulated EV) of 87k. Some 60 grand below expectation. Odd thing was the following year was the best year of my career about 50 grand above expectation. I believe this is part of the game and things work out in the long run. I trust the long run. BUT, it doesn't make it any less frustrating going through it. But this too shall pass.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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October 31st, 2020 at 1:06:37 AM permalink
Reading the bottom line in this demo BJ game I'm playing this week. (5's turn into 6's automagically)
2590 bets: 45.02% won, 46.72% lost, 8.26% tied; $496,675 bet, $13,653 won, 2.75% win rate.

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