theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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August 8th, 2020 at 6:49:29 AM permalink
For those of you who are professional or semi-professional AP's, how do you manage your own bankroll? Do you use a fixed strategy or proportional? If proportional, how often do you resize your bets?
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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August 8th, 2020 at 8:06:01 AM permalink
Quote: theOmega623

Yes I was planning to wait until my bankroll had reached $50k to resize up to a $50-$500 spread, but now thinking of resizing in between. Would doing this logically make sense? I am thinking it would, but it cant hurt to get some input from the forum..

Thanks for the input Chump Change!



you need to pay someone to do simulations, theres no way any of our generalizations will equate to exact answers when it comes to the money you are risking. Im sure you can find so many papers on things like this on google scholar.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 8th, 2020 at 8:30:28 AM permalink
Heatmap is correct, you need simulations. They will answer most of your questions. But rather than pay someone to run sim, you should invest in software to run them yourself. Anyone serious about blackjack through card counter and playing at your level of play, it is an investment well worth the price. I recommend Qfit software products. not only do the sims answer all your questions, but you learn things you wouldn't expect, just playing around with the software.

As for re-sizing, while my understanding is frequent re-sizing is optimal, in both directions, I personally am not a big fan of 'frequent' resizing. It can be extremely frustrating to lose a significant portion of BR at one max bet size and then have to resize and try to win it back playing half the max bet. For this reason, when I was growing BR, I didn't re-size often. I would rather play conservatively for the bankroll I have and only have to resize, should I hit a massive downtown.

I remember back not that many years ago, I began a year on a 4 month, downturn. I was playing to a 100k, bankroll, and lost 32 grand I believe or just about a third. I should have resized at that point. Probably "should have" at about 25k loss. But I hated the idea of trying to win that money back playing a lower max bet. So I talked myself into continuing at the same spread, ramp and max bet and promised I would resize at 40k loss.

As it turned out, things turned right there. I actually went on a massive upturn, winning winning over 115k over 5 weeks, which was an extraordinary amount for the levels I was playing. I just couldn't lose, everyday, every casino, every max bet, every double down seemed to win. I was winning so fast, I felt my play was drawing attention at my regular stores and ended up taking a break for a few weeks, just to let things cool down. That year which started out so bad, ended up being my best year (still to date)and I have never had a run of weeks or months like that 5 week run since. Had I reduced max bet, as I should have, that run would have been considerably less.
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 286
August 8th, 2020 at 8:56:48 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Heatmap is correct, you need simulations. They will answer most of your questions. But rather than pay someone to run sim, you should invest in software to run them yourself. Anyone serious about blackjack through card counter and playing at your level of play, it is an investment well worth the price. I recommend Qfit software products. not only do the sims answer all your questions, but you learn things you wouldn't expect, just playing around with the software.

As for re-sizing, while my understanding is frequent re-sizing is optimal, in both directions, I personally am not a big fan of 'frequent' resizing. It can be extremely frustrating to lose a significant portion of BR at one max bet size and then have to resize and try to win it back playing half the max bet. For this reason, when I was growing BR, I didn't re-size often. I would rather play conservatively for the bankroll I have and only have to resize, should I hit a massive downtown.

I remember back not that many years ago, I began a year on a 4 month, downturn. I was playing to a 100k, bankroll, and lost 32 grand I believe or just about a third. I should have resized at that point. Probably "should have" at about 25k loss. But I hated the idea of trying to win that money back playing a lower max bet. So I talked myself into continuing at the same spread, ramp and max bet and promised I would resize at 40k loss.

As it turned out, things turned right there. I actually went on a massive upturn, winning winning over 115k over 5 weeks, which was an extraordinary amount for the levels I was playing. I just couldn't lose, everyday, every casino, every max bet, every double down seemed to win. I was winning so fast, I felt my play was drawing attention at my regular stores and ended up taking a break for a few weeks, just to let things cool down. That year which started out so bad, ended up being my best year (still to date)and I have never had a run of weeks or months like that 5 week run since. Had I reduced max bet, as I should have, that run would have been considerably less.



Thanks for telling that story Kewlj, that's pretty incredible!

After doing some research on this for the past couple hours, I understand that frequent resizing is always optimal at half-Kelly value, both upsizing and downsizing. For example, with a starting bankroll of $25k using Omega 2 ($250 top bet) my risk is around 1%, obviously as I win or lose money that risk changes. By frequently resizing, I keep risk at 1% but I must downsize as well after a loss to stay at that risk level. So resizing in the real world is just personal preference based on acceptable risk and expected value. Makes sense, I'm not exactly sure why I didnt already figure that one out lol. Found several good articles and videos on fixed betting vs proportional betting online though, interesting stuff.
RachelBuckland
RachelBuckland
Joined: Aug 7, 2020
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August 10th, 2020 at 3:19:34 PM permalink
Poker is a really good option
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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August 10th, 2020 at 4:01:20 PM permalink
Quote: RachelBuckland

Poker is a really good option



Only 18 more posts to go. I canít wait!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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August 10th, 2020 at 4:27:28 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Only 18 more posts to go. I canít wait!


Whaddy think, Nathan?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 10th, 2020 at 9:34:54 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj


A guy that goes by the handle "bigplayer" on some of the blackjack forums, long time member of one of the top and well known teams and member of the BJHoF, one said, for increased longevity, identify the best game in each casino and play the second best. :) (being that the best is the one closely watched).



I posted this earlier in this thread. Turns out I was mistaken about "bigplayer" being a member of the BJHoF. Oddly someone read my quote here and ran to another forum (that I am not on) to discuss it, rather than discuss it directly with me. But that's ok, that is the way these forums are now.

So "bigplayer" is a longterm member of one of the top long running BJ teams. I learned a great deal from him over the years and often quote him as I did above. The fact that i mistakenly thought he was in the BJHoF doesn't change anything for me. He is at the top of players I hold in high regard. I apologize for the mistake.
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 11th, 2020 at 9:37:10 AM permalink
I was a little confused by that, and thought about PMing you about it but decided it wasn't that important.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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