GMan
GMan
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
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August 3rd, 2020 at 4:37:03 PM permalink
Quote: theOmega623

Greetings everyone!
So as I've mentioned before, I've been reevaluating my AP plans for next year and I figured I would share my plans with you guys. Assuming this virus is not still a big problem and Las Vegas is somewhat back to normal, it seems to me what makes the most sense is to focus solely on 2D games. On average, it costs me around $750 - $1k to make the trip to Vegas and other places that offer good 2D games (this includes travel, room, food, everything etc.). I can find descent 6D games closer to me but after running the numbers it just makes logical sense not to waste time on them. By only playing 2D games with at least 60-65% pen using AO2 full indices, I can keep my hourly win rate at around $100/hr (around $12 per shoe in the long run). This will pretty much be picking up where I left off, with the goal being 500 shoes per month, at least 2-3 trips per month. I calculate that as long as I keep my expenses per trip at $1k or less, which should be easy, I expect my EV for the year to be around $50k (after subtracting expenses). This is staying at a $25 unit, as much as I would really like to use a $50 or $100 unit and go for $100 - $200k EV, I just dont see it financially possible. I've considered taking a loan if needed or playing with higher risk, its incredibly tempting but overall not a very smart idea. Anyways, just figured I would run my thoughts by you guys as I'm sitting near the coast waiting on Hurricane Isaias!
Hope all is well guys!
- Omega



I will not comment on your DD game choice. This is up to you.
I am most concerned with your $1000 expenses per trip.
I have a rule of thumb for years: my trip expenses should never be more than 25% of total EV or 50% of CE.
You say you have a $100/hour EV on the games you play. Good. What's the CE and how many hours per trip are you playing to cover these $1000 in expenses?
G Man
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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August 3rd, 2020 at 6:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Hey if playing DD is working for you, god bless. Maybe you have a real good act. ?? One thing you have going is $250 max bet is an amount that is tolerated pretty well. If you get up to closer to $500 it starts to become a bigger problem.

Ok, when I moved to Vegas in late 2009, my top priority was longevity. Having worn out my welcome in Atlantic City, I wanted to come up with a plan, style of play and limits that would allow me to play for 10 years (a period that has come and gone and now I would like another 5-10 lol).

So I had ideas about short sessions (perfect for Las Vegas with it's many games) and what limits I wanted to play that I THOUGHT would be better tolerated, but it really took some trial and error to get that down pat. And part of that trial and error involves back offs. My first few years, I would be backed off 6-8 times a year. Maybe 10 times my worst year. As time went on that, number went down to now 3-4. Part of that is you just know they are coming before they do and can avoid them. You just learn to read when your play is making pit uncomfortable.

One tip about backoffs. They are temporary. Best way to survive is to just exit as quickly and quietly as possible, with as little commotion. The least memorable you make yourself and the backoff incident, the better. You aren't going to talk your way out of a backoff (and if you did it would buy you almost nothing), so anything you do or say other than quietly exiting only serves to make you more memorable. Just exit. Stay away from that casino for a month and that shift and pit person for 4-5 months. That usually does it.



Thanks for sharing your experience Kewlj, I certainly do at least try to put on a good act. I always try to have a brief conversation with the pit boss about the casino, restaurants, my work (mostly made-up crap) and be over friendly. I've found the more talkative the better particularly in between shoes and pretending to drink. I ask the dealer what I should do all the time, then do what I know is correct and act on the results, just stuff like that. Any advice and recommendations I get from other professionals I really take to heart and try to implement it and I share the same attitude with being backed off. The one and only time it happened to me I just said 'Okay, no problem' and went right across the street and kept playing. I remember thinking I would immediately get flagged again, but I played for hours and no problem. Ever since then I just go in with the attitude that if they want to back me off that's fine, no big deal. If it becomes a constant problem once I get back to playing, then I may have to reevaluate things once again. But I'll keep you guys updated and hopefully it wont become a problem.
GMan
GMan
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
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August 4th, 2020 at 6:49:53 AM permalink
TheOmega623,

It looks like you chose to ignore my best... (?)
I'm not going to cry over this but you'll be warn... If you don't take special attention to your expenses AND THEIR RATIO TO EV (or CE), you will in the long run get wiped out by them or at best you'll play with a much more higher RoR than you'd think.

Best of luck!
G Man
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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August 4th, 2020 at 7:47:10 AM permalink
Quote: GMan

TheOmega623,

It looks like you chose to ignore my best... (?)
I'm not going to cry over this but you'll be warn... If you don't take special attention to your expenses AND THEIR RATIO TO EV (or CE), you will in the long run get wiped out by them or at best you'll play with a much more higher RoR than you'd think.

Best of luck!



My apologies Gman, I meant to respond to you in my last post. It was a bit difficult to focus with a screaming infant and a raging hurricane outside lol. I appreciate your advice, as far as CE goes I currently operate with both savings put away to be used solely as a blackjack bankroll and a replenishing amount that is added every month. The replenishing amount more than covers the expenses, so I consistently consider my bankroll to be my savings and I keep risk less than 1%. In fact playing only 2D games using A02 increases both EV and CE and decreases risk. If I were to play solely 6D games close by, I would be spending less to travel but also making much less EV and the ratio of expenses to EV would remain about the same just on a smaller scale, but the risk would be higher. Therefore I come to the conclusion that focusing my time and money on 2D games is the most logical option.
racquet
racquet
Joined: Dec 31, 2014
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August 4th, 2020 at 8:08:52 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj


Kewlj,

One tip about backoffs. They are temporary... Stay away from that casino for a month and that shift and pit person for 4-5 months. That usually does it.



On that subject, I got backed off recently - first time. I did not make a scene and quietly cashed in and left. Two suits tapped me on the shoulder and told me I was being flat-bet at table minimum. See you later, sez I.

Without being specific as to the casino, would you say that I could go back? I was foolishly playing almost every day, same time, same pit, since I have been playing for years, low limit, making a little money and living off the points, complimentary shows and eating for free with never a whimper of suspicion.

Since that happened I have stayed away, more due to the pandemic than anything else, other than the worry about getting a stronger warning if I got another tap on the shoulder.

What happens the second time, and with whatever they do nowadays being more automated, can I really expect NOT to be spotted?

Oh - and something else I've always wondered - how is "kewlj" pronounced? "Cool-Jay?" "Cule-J?" "Kwell-gh?"
GMan
GMan
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
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August 4th, 2020 at 11:27:30 AM permalink
Quote: theOmega623

My apologies Gman, I meant to respond to you in my last post. It was a bit difficult to focus with a screaming infant and a raging hurricane outside lol. I appreciate your advice, as far as CE goes I currently operate with both savings put away to be used solely as a blackjack bankroll and a replenishing amount that is added every month. The replenishing amount more than covers the expenses, so I consistently consider my bankroll to be my savings and I keep risk less than 1%. In fact playing only 2D games using A02 increases both EV and CE and decreases risk. If I were to play solely 6D games close by, I would be spending less to travel but also making much less EV and the ratio of expenses to EV would remain about the same just on a smaller scale, but the risk would be higher. Therefore I come to the conclusion that focusing my time and money on 2D games is the most logical option.


If the added amount every month covers your expenses, then it's fine.
I hope the hurricane didn't do too much damages...
G Man
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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August 4th, 2020 at 11:42:32 AM permalink
Quote: GMan

If the added amount every month covers your expenses, then it's fine.
I hope the hurricane didn't do too much damages...



Thanks man, wasn't too bad for us here just some limbs down, we were very fortunate!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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August 4th, 2020 at 3:27:24 PM permalink
Mr Omega.... I think you are starting this venture in the right frame of mind, and are doing some due diligence. It appears to me that you are doing this (at least starting out) more as a 'side gig' than an actual attempt at doing it full time? If so, the risk to you of being banned from a place is lower than a local who will be there much more frequently than you will be.

I wish you luck! Keep us updated!
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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August 4th, 2020 at 3:40:00 PM permalink
Quote: racquet

On that subject, I got backed off recently - first time. I did not make a scene and quietly cashed in and left. Two suits tapped me on the shoulder and told me I was being flat-bet at table minimum. See you later, sez I.

Without being specific as to the casino, would you say that I could go back? I was foolishly playing almost every day, same time, same pit, since I have been playing for years, low limit, making a little money and living off the points, complimentary shows and eating for free with never a whimper of suspicion.

Since that happened I have stayed away, more due to the pandemic than anything else, other than the worry about getting a stronger warning if I got another tap on the shoulder.

What happens the second time, and with whatever they do nowadays being more automated, can I really expect NOT to be spotted?

Oh - and something else I've always wondered - how is "kewlj" pronounced? "Cool-Jay?" "Cule-J?" "Kwell-gh?"



Yes, Kewl is pronounced "cool". It made more sense when I used to use my first name in my handle. When I shortened it to J, looks awkward, but whatever.

Yeah, your situation is not a good one. If you have "overplayed" a casino to the point that you are well known, it becomes harder to get them to forget about you. I had some of that going on towards the end of my Atlantic City run. That is why I moved on to a bigger rotation.

I still would try to avoid the shift and the pit personnel involved for a while. Go back at a different time than you normally play with different pit and dealers. Maybe they let you play, maybe they don't. If they do, I would stay away from the personnel involved for 6 months.

I read that pit critters have great memories. I haven't found that to be universally true. Like everything else some do, some don't. Plus they see and deal with a lot of people. You could go back in 6 months and the same Pit guy will be like "hey, haven't see you for a while". He remembers you but not the incident. That is why it is best to just leave quickly and quietly, not making that incident into something bigger that will be remembered. Or you may go back in 6 months, he takes one look at you and say, "yeah, you are flat bet".

Good luck. :)
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
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August 5th, 2020 at 6:56:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Mr Omega.... I think you are starting this venture in the right frame of mind, and are doing some due diligence. It appears to me that you are doing this (at least starting out) more as a 'side gig' than an actual attempt at doing it full time? If so, the risk to you of being banned from a place is lower than a local who will be there much more frequently than you will be.

I wish you luck! Keep us updated!



Thanks SOOPOO, and I agree with you. While I plan to play the majority of my time in Vegas, I will also be venturing to other places that have good 2D games. I'll keep you guys updated on that as well, like game conditions, heat, etc..

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