Bad Shuffling

One of my local casinos mostly has hand shuffling. It seems that there are more 3/4/5 card dealer 21s than would be expected. I’ve watched when a table is opened up, and they don’t spread out the decks and mix the cards, rather they just shuffle the decks as they come out of the box. After a chute they seem to shuffle by flipping “large” groups of cards, rather than 1-2 cards at a time. Would this be the reason behind the inordinate amount of multi card dealer 21s or am I off base?

Quote: technics

One of my local casinos mostly has hand shuffling.

This could be a good thing, or a bad thing depending on WHO is shuffling the cards and how well they know how to do their jobs

Quote: technics

It seems that there are more 3/4/5 card dealer 21s than would be expected. I’ve watched when a table is opened up, and they don’t spread out the decks and mix the cards, rather they just shuffle the decks as they come out of the box. After a chute they seem to shuffle by flipping “large” groups of cards, rather than 1-2 cards at a time. Would this be the reason behind the inordinate amount of multi card dealer 21s or am I off base?

Well you should first be questioning your state, or jurisdictional laws. The shuffling procedure should be defined, but if you find nothing about shuffling then what they are doing is most likely legal although I AM NOT A LAWYER.

Second, how many decks are being used here?

Hand shuffles are, from what I read, just as random if not more random then some shuffling machines. But random is not FUN for the player. I am usually the one who says its the shuffle machine, but you clearly state it is not a shuffle machine being used.

1 deck blackjack is so tight when i play against myself at home there is no winning most of the time.

Quote: heatmap

This could be a good thing, or a bad thing depending on WHO is shuffling the cards and how well they know how to do their jobs



Well you should first be questioning your state, or jurisdictional laws. The shuffling procedure should be defined, but if you find nothing about shuffling then what they are doing is most likely legal although I AM NOT A LAWYER.

Second, how many decks are being used here?

Hand shuffles are, from what I read, just as random if not more random then some shuffling machines. But random is not FUN for the player. I am usually the one who says its the shuffle machine, but you clearly state it is not a shuffle machine being used.

1 deck blackjack is so tight when i play against myself at home there is no winning most of the time.

Hadn’t thought about checking state regulations; their after chute shuffle methods would be difficult to prove I would think. It’s a six deck game. The Wizard says automatic shufflers are better, I believe. The automatic shufflers that this casino does have are continuous shufflers, but since I count cards , I can’t play at those tables.

Quote: technics

Hadn’t thought about checking state regulations; their after chute shuffle methods would be difficult to prove I would think. It’s a six deck game. The Wizard says automatic shufflers are better, I believe. The automatic shufflers that this casino does have are continuous shufflers, but since I count cards , I can’t play at those tables.

So this has to do with the ASM shufflers. IMO there is a side effect that happens when it shuffle the cards but I call it a magic trick because it can go wrong most of the time. Essentially the trick is that when you add or remove a player you get a blackjack somewhere on the table.

I’ll tell you that one day, I sat down with a man playing 5k markers like he made them himself. He kept losing. I was not helping either but before I sat down I said to him, “hey do you mind if I try something?” And I told him exactly what I just told you. I also told him that it probably wouldn’t happen because why would it? It’s random and I can’t guarantee because I’m not shuffling the deck. He agrees. So we play a hand. Personally I don’t think the first hand was a blackjack when I entered but it’s possible. The next hand I proceeded to add a new hand to the felt. Dealer gets blackjack. Remove a hand, dealer gets blackjack. add one, repeat. This happened six time consecutively so basically 3 hands added and removed in a row and six blackjacks for the dealer. I kept playing and kept losing after hat it’s the worst day of my gambling career if I even have one lol

The odds of the dealer getting BJ on those 6 consecutive deals on which you changed the number of "hands" was roughly one in 100 million. If the shuffler was completely random.

The mathaholics here would be able to give you a more scientific answer, but my impression is that changing the number of hands, however you want to define what that is, has absolutely no impact on the likelihood of any SPECIFIC outcome. It certainly would change the RANDOM outcome since with a different sequence of cards being dealt to each player and the dealer, the results would be different, but changing the "number of hands" would not pre-determine the chances of anyone, the dealer or a player, getting a blackjack.

I would say the most likely reason for your question is confirmation bias. You see something you think may be happening, and then you make note when it does, but.... when it doesn't you just ignore it. If the dealer has 10 consecutive hands with NO 21, you don't even notice. You may not notice if he has 100 such hands. But if there are 3 consecutive drawn 21s, you are all over it.

Just a question for you.... do you know the odds of a dealer getting a drawn 21 with 3, 4, or 5 cards? Since you think it is happening more frequently than it should I am sure you know how frequently it should! (I'll bet you don't know...)

Quote: SOOPOO

I would say the most likely reason for your question is confirmation bias. You see something you think may be happening, and then you make note when it does, but.... when it doesn't you just ignore it. If the dealer has 10 consecutive hands with NO 21, you don't even notice. You may not notice if he has 100 such hands. But if there are 3 consecutive drawn 21s, you are all over it.

Just a question for you.... do you know the odds of a dealer getting a drawn 21 with 3, 4, or 5 cards? Since you think it is happening more frequently than it should I am sure you know how frequently it should! (I'll bet you don't know...)

funny you ask this and i wasnt going to post this but i found this report for a blackjack game

CAUTION PDF!!!

http://www.itechlabs.com.au/certificates/PartyGaming/PartyGaming_Blackjack_card_analysis_report.PDF

Quote: SOOPOO

<snip>Just a question for you.... do you know the odds of a dealer getting a drawn 21 with 3, 4, or 5 cards? Since you think it is happening more frequently than it should I am sure you know how frequently it should! (I'll bet you don't know...)

SOOPOO,

According to an old post by the late, great MathProf over at bj21, for a 6D S17 game, these are the percentage probabilities of the dealer drawing to a 3, 4, or 5 card 21:

3-card 21: 5.165%
4-card 21: 1.778%
5-card 21: 0.3093%

Link: https://bj21.com/boards/green-chip-forums/sub_boards/green-chip-general/topics/odds-of (scroll down to MathProf's post).

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

This post was about poor hand shuffling producing higher HE than automatic shufflers.

Quote: SOOPOO

I would say the most likely reason for your question is confirmation bias. You see something you think may be happening, and then you make note when it does, but.... when it doesn't you just ignore it. If the dealer has 10 consecutive hands with NO 21, you don't even notice. You may not notice if he has 100 such hands. But if there are 3 consecutive drawn 21s, you are all over it.

SOOPOO, I love you, guy, but you didn't read what I posted, which I repeat here:

"The odds of the dealer getting BJ on those 10 consecutive deals on which HeatMap changed the number of "hands" was roughly one in 100 million. If the shuffler was completely random."

So, I maintain that confirmation bias cannot be evoked to explain something that is a 1/100,000,000 occurrence -because he should never see something so rare. He claims that it occurred exactly when he changed the number of spots to be dealt to 10 consecutive times -which, if true, is proof of a non-random deal.

Quote: gordonm888

SOOPOO, I love you, guy, but you didn't read what I posted, which I repeat here:

"The odds of the dealer getting BJ on those 10 consecutive deals on which HeatMap changed the number of "hands" was roughly one in 100 million. If the shuffler was completely random."

So, I maintain that confirmation bias cannot be evoked to explain something that is a 1/100,000,000 occurrence -because he should never see something so rare. He claims that it occurred exactly when he changed the number of spots to be dealt to 10 consecutive times -which, if true, is proof of a non-random deal.

Ive also been really lucky at that casino, i didnt make much money but i started off with an 8 card 20 win i think, followed by 4 blackjacks, the fourth of which was a PUSH

Quote: DogHand

SOOPOO,

According to an old post by the late, great MathProf over at bj21, for a 6D S17 game, these are the percentage probabilities of the dealer drawing to a 3, 4, or 5 card 21:

3-card 21: 5.165%
4-card 21: 1.778%
5-card 21: 0.3093%

Link: /boards/green-chip-forums/sub_boards/green-chip-general/topics/odds-of (scroll down to MathProf's post).

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

So it would take extreme variance for this to occur naturally over many sessions, right Soopoo?