Million Dollar Update
So I have recently just hit 2,000 shoes played through for the year (or roughly 200ish hours). I am currently up just over $9K and by my calculations, playing a mix of 2D and 6D (Hi-Lo when playing 6D and AO2 when playing 2D), I should be up in the ballpark of around $20K. Though after only 2,000 shoes of play, I'm not too worried about the results. The travel has honestly been exhausting but I intend to ramp it up as my goal is to hit 10,000 shoes by the end of the year. It's a big goal but if I can get even close to that I'll be happy. Well, only about $990K to go!
Just thought I would give you guys an update, cheers!
- Omega
Quote: theOmega623Greetings everyone!
So I have recently just hit 2,000 shoes played through for the year (or roughly 200ish hours). I am currently up just over $9K and by my calculations, playing a mix of 2D and 6D (Hi-Lo when playing 6D and AO2 when playing 2D), I should be up in the ballpark of around $20K. Though after only 2,000 shoes of play, I'm not too worried about the results. The travel has honestly been exhausting but I intend to ramp it up as my goal is to hit 10,000 shoes by the end of the year. It's a big goal but if I can get even close to that I'll be happy. Well, only about $990K to go!
Just thought I would give you guys an update, cheers!
- Omega
When you say 'up $9k', are you including any free play, other offers, etc? Are you including costs of travel, etc? I think you are just talking purely about the BJ results. $45 an hour doesn't sound bad to me.... You expect your EV to be $100 an hour?
Quote: SOOPOOWhen you say 'up $9k', are you including any free play, other offers, etc? Are you including costs of travel, etc? I think you are just talking purely about the BJ results. $45 an hour doesn't sound bad to me.... You expect your EV to be $100 an hour?
I am talking just purely BJ results, I do expect my EV to be in the ballpark of $100/hr overall but I could be wrong, I am playing different games using different systems. When I am playing 2D using AO2 (ace side count) spreading $25 - $250 my EV is pretty high, on the flip side playing 6D using Hi-Lo with the same spread is much less per hour and of course the number of other players at the table and dealer speed makes a difference. Sometimes I can get a fast dealer playing heads up and it seems like I'm playing 150 - 200 hands per hour. It's hard to figure but either way, the results are what they are and all I can do is just keep playing, and I agree that $45/hr isn't bad at all. Expenses havent been too bad, I'm always learning new ways of cutting down on that. That in itself is an art LOL. I also jump on any opportunity to double someone else's bet, that helps get the EV up. It's a learning experience for sure!
- Omega
Quote: theOmega623I also jump on any opportunity to double someone else's bet, that helps get the EV up.
- Omega
I don't understand. If someone is not doubling they are reserving the right to take another card when they hit. Who would allow you to double on their hand?
Quote: SOOPOOI don't understand. If someone is not doubling they are reserving the right to take another card when they hit. Who would allow you to double on their hand?
Ploppies will, but it's a sad move. I will gladly fill in the difference if someone is doubling for less but to hoodwink a person into giving up value is bad medicine.
Taking advantage of unwitting victims is just the sort of thing that upsets the sacred flow of the cards. Karma never sleeps.
Quote: billryanPloppies will, but it's a sad move. I will gladly fill in the difference if someone is doubling for less but to hoodwink a person into giving up value is bad medicine.
Taking advantage of unwitting victims is just the sort of thing that upsets the sacred flow of the cards. Karma never sleeps.
Even though it is "frowned upon" by the dealer/casino (since it slows the play down and can cause arguments etc) I will sometimes ask can I take your double*** (if it is clear they don't want to double / are playing their last chip)
***: I only ask them in the following situations (Player 10 or 11 vs 4-6)
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I can't remember if I have already mentioned this in another thread, but I was betting $25 (table minimum) recently and someone was spreading between 200 and 600 behind me in the same box. I wanted to double an 11 vs 9 and he didn't (he said something like "the trend of the cards are currently low cards at the moment", or something similar). So, he then offered to pay me $25 if I hit instead of doubled (if our hand won).
I asked him, "are you sure", and he said "yes".
So, we won the hand, and he paid me the $25.
It's just not worth it as it will annoy the dealer and possibly alert the pit.
I always explain to the player that the correct BS move is to double, to give them a 2nd chance to take it for themselves.
Note: I don't do it all the time, only if the table is "not busy" and/or "slow".
I generally agree with you that it is not worth it, but when I do it someone could be betting up to $500, as I notice there are plenty of people that go to a casino and bet "their entire betting budget on one bet" .
Quote: billryanYou are intentionally taking EV away from a player who doesn't know any better to gain a few cents for yourself.
It's just not worth it as it will annoy the dealer and possibly alert the pit.
It's not a play I go out of my way to make by any means, the few times I've done this both the pit and player were completely fine with it. The first time it happened, a player walked up to my table mid-shoe and just placed a $25 bet, received a 10 v 5 and then asked me if I would like to double it, so I did. We both lost, the guy looked at me and said 'well we tried!' and then left. I never push the play on anybody, that's not in my character, but every now and then at a 'fun table' a player will have a hand they either cant or dont want to double, others at the table will be telling them to double it. So typically I will offer to risk the chip for them and they will gladly accept, and we ride the hand together. If we win we high five, it's actually pretty fun.
Quote: billryanThey accept because they don't realize how dumb a move it is. I learned scavenger blackjack from a master. With power comes responsibility. Being able to take advantage of someone doesn't mean you should. There are plenty of ways to make money in casinos. I think taking advantage of people who don't know what you do is poor form. To be successful long term, one needs stay off the casinos radar. Scavenging is a good way to get noticed
I think they accept the play for the same reason they are playing the game in the first place, they dont care that they are playing a losing game they are there to gamble, they dont care about EV. For example, often a player will ask me what they should do with a hand, I will politely tell them the correct play and if they lose they say something like "not gonna ask you again" and laugh. They dont understand I just saved them EV, they only care that they lost the bet.
Couple years ago in Atlantic City I was sitting at a blackjack table with a man, he was playing and I was just counting and chatting. Whenever the count became positive I would play 2 hands, but then only. Technically I was taking EV from him since I played hands on every positive count and let him play through the negatives.
I do understand your point on the subject, but I dont think it's a dirty play if the player is asking for it. For them, its gambling.
Quote: billryanThey accept because they don't realize how dumb a move it is. I learned scavenger blackjack from a master. With power comes responsibility. Being able to take advantage of someone doesn't mean you should. There are plenty of ways to make money in casinos. I think taking advantage of people who don't know what you do is poor form. To be successful long term, one needs stay off the casinos radar. Scavenging is a good way to get noticed
Is it really taking EV from them if they don't intend to do it right? I'll sometimes tell someone "hey, that's a good double, if you don't double it, I will" or some variation of that. Letting them know it's good educates them, gives me the opportunity to double, but also doesn't send a bunch of pressure their way.
Quote: MintyIs it really taking EV from them if they don't intend to do it right? I'll sometimes tell someone "hey, that's a good double, if you don't double it, I will" or some variation of that. Letting them know it's good educates them, gives me the opportunity to double, but also doesn't send a bunch of pressure their way.
Yes, it is. You are limiting them to only one card with absolutely no benefit to them.
Quote: billryanYes, it is. You are limiting them to only one card with absolutely no benefit to them.
There are doubles where this doesn’t matter, so you wouldn’t be taking EV. For example a ten or 11 vs a dealer 4-6.
Quote: unJonThere are doubles where this doesn’t matter, so you wouldn’t be taking EV. For example a ten or 11 vs a dealer 4-6.
In that hand, you are taking EV from the house. Something any competent dealer will pick up on ,as will the pit. Would you trade an occasional quarter for keeping off the pits radar? Someone who wants to make a million dollars playing blackjack needs to be more concerned with laying low than picking up an occasional quarter, in my opinion. If wonging alone doesn't get you noticed,
frequent scavenging just might.
Quote: billryanIn that hand, you are taking EV from the house. Something any competent dealer will pick up on ,as will the pit. Would you trade an occasional quarter for keeping off the pits radar? Someone who wants to make a million dollars playing blackjack needs to be more concerned with laying low than picking up an occasional quarter, in my opinion. If wonging alone doesn't get you noticed,
frequent scavenging just might.
I am actually not worried one bit about being identified as an advantage player, it will always happen sooner or later. My philosophy is to be aggressive and get the EV as that is the advice I have been given by actual professionals and that is the way I play, and I have not had a back off yet this year. At the table I am very polite to the pit, dealers, and other players but I will never use cover that costs me EV. I will wong out and spread aggressively and if they back me off, so be it. If you play differently to avoid having to travel, there's nothing wrong with that but not the way I play it. To me there's always another Casino, on to the next place.
Quote: unJonThere are doubles where this doesn’t matter, so you wouldn’t be taking EV. For example a ten or 11 vs a dealer 4-6.
Here is the math*** of the play, assuming 6-deck and dealer stands on soft 17 (as far as I know all other rules irrelevant for this "doubling play"):
***: Only taking the "non-harmful" doubles (see quote by unjon above)
Average edge for "doubling another persons hand": about 28.95%
Chance of anyone getting the above potential double per hand(game): about 1/49
Chance of "doubling another persons hand": 1/49 x P x ? (where P is the number of other players at the table and ? is unknown but is somewhere between 0 and 1)
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Edit/update (after reading theOmega623 post on March 15th, 2020 at 2:29:23 PM):
I agree with billryan that you may get noticed (or worse) by the casino if you frequently scavenge
Even though billryan has a valid point, it doesn't affect the Op, since he will move "...on to the next place.", if and when that happens.
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Lastly, I think the math is correct or very close to it, but please correct me if I am wrong, thanks.
Quote: billryanIf the OP thinks travel is a pain now, wait until he burns most of the usual suspects. When it comes to BJ and casinos, I favor Robert Duvals approach from Colors.
I like how this thread has evolved to cover several different areas of the game, it's good conversation. I tend to lean more towards Tommy Hylands approach.
I guess every player has their own preferences..
billryan: may I ask, have you had major trouble with back offs in your career?
Quote: theOmega623I like how this thread has evolved to cover several different areas of the game, it's good conversation. I tend to lean more towards Tommy Hylands approach.
I guess every player has their own preferences..
billryan: may I ask, have you had major trouble with back offs in your career?
His favorite movie is Rain Man
Quote: darkozHis favorite movie is Rain Man
Who's favorite movie is Rain Man?
Quote: theOmega623I like how this thread has evolved to cover several different areas of the game, it's good conversation. I tend to lean more towards Tommy Hylands approach.
I guess every player has their own preferences..
billryan: may I ask, have you had major trouble with back offs in your career?
I'm far too weak a player to get backed off, no matter how lucky I am. Ask any pitboss.
I always thought I'd play 20-25 hours a week when I moved to Vegas, but rather quickly met some great people who showed me a better way.
I think there's a healthy middle to playing aggressively vs longevity and certain casinos and sessions may benefit from one style more than the other.
Quote: MintyOmega, you said you don't use cover. I imagine there's still a bit; you don't split 10s or double A9 do you? If you do, you're a braver/more reckless man than I!
I think there's a healthy middle to playing aggressively vs longevity and certain casinos and sessions may benefit from one style more than the other.
Yes I will split 10s and double A9 against 5 or 6, I make any index plays that are the correct play. I will at least try to make some sort of verbal cover, whether it helps or not, but I will make the play.
My goal is to squeeze out every bit of edge possible every session, but I do acknowledge that if your goal is to avoid getting backed off from any one place then you may need to play it differently.
One time I was playing at a table (story alert) with a group that actually knew basic strategy for the most part. I was at third base, as I am most of the time, with a 12 v 4. Since the count was negative I took a hit and the table lost it LOL, that was of course the dealers bust card. After that, 2 of the players just stopped playing (more hands for me) and then proceeded to try and coach me for the next 10-15 minutes, and the dealer was even trying to help. I just totally played into it, it was great.
From the number of hands per hour, to the penetration, to their mistakes per hour. If you think you're getting 100 hph, really keep track for about 10-20 shoes and check it out. Most of the time I've had counters report back "Wow, I'm only actually getting about 65-70 hands per hour!" Well, there's 30% of overestimate on EV right there. Now look at the PEN, rules, and have an honest conversation with yourself about how often you're potentially off one or two on your count, etc.
I'm not saying you have any of these issues, and even if you did you could STILL be coming in under EV just due to variance, but everyone I've ever mentored in the game (including when I was under a few hundred hours in the game) had these issues to work out.
Quote: RomesThanks for sharing. Without getting in to specifics, one thing I'll just mention that I've seen in every single student I've mentored in blackjack (for free never pay a dime for blackjack advice) is that they have ALWAYS overestimated their EV (just like I did when I was new to the game as well).
From the number of hands per hour, to the penetration, to their mistakes per hour. If you think you're getting 100 hph, really keep track for about 10-20 shoes and check it out. Most of the time I've had counters report back "Wow, I'm only actually getting about 65-70 hands per hour!" Well, there's 30% of overestimate on EV right there. Now look at the PEN, rules, and have an honest conversation with yourself about how often you're potentially off one or two on your count, etc.
I'm not saying you have any of these issues, and even if you did you could STILL be coming in under EV just due to variance, but everyone I've ever mentored in the game (including when I was under a few hundred hours in the game) had these issues to work out.
Great post. There are so many things we overestimate while actually believing the number in our minds. (18 yo's in a row?)
Was playing basketball with a kid who had a very poor shot. Fast, strong; but couldn't shoot. If open from the 3 point line he would hurl it up, like a brick. As he was on my team I politely recommended he not shoot from there! Game is over.... I ask him what he thinks he can shoot unguarded from the 3 point line.... He matter of factly says 50%. I told him I'd bet him any amount of money he would not make more than 2 out of 10. I won the $1 after he did make 1 of 10.....
Omega, maybe you have mentioned this, but do you ever tip?
Quote: RomesThanks for sharing. Without getting in to specifics, one thing I'll just mention that I've seen in every single student I've mentored in blackjack (for free never pay a dime for blackjack advice) is that they have ALWAYS overestimated their EV (just like I did when I was new to the game as well).
From the number of hands per hour, to the penetration, to their mistakes per hour. If you think you're getting 100 hph, really keep track for about 10-20 shoes and check it out. Most of the time I've had counters report back "Wow, I'm only actually getting about 65-70 hands per hour!" Well, there's 30% of overestimate on EV right there. Now look at the PEN, rules, and have an honest conversation with yourself about how often you're potentially off one or two on your count, etc.
I'm not saying you have any of these issues, and even if you did you could STILL be coming in under EV just due to variance, but everyone I've ever mentored in the game (including when I was under a few hundred hours in the game) had these issues to work out.
Great point Romes!
SOOPOO: No, never.
