Spread & Variance ?
Quote: camz1969If you have a small bankroll of lets say $5k to risk and the only good rules near you are at $25 tables, which is a lower ROR...a small spread like 1-4 with aggressive wonging out of negative counts or just go for a full 1-8 or 1-12(and also wonging)? I would think the small spread but then potential positive swings with the large spread could quickly get the bankroll up and then you could adjust from there. I know the ideal is to back count and bet minimum in +EV counts until bankroll grows but if it's just one casino near you it's hard to not get noticed just standing there staring for long periods.
I assume you are talking about shoe games since you usually can't wong in a 2D shoe.
25$ shoes require quite a bankroll. If the pen is not great I doubt you'll have much of an edge with a small spread, I would stick to a decent spread unless you are wonging very aggressively.
Also, wonging out does not necessarily mean standing up. You can discretely make a gesture to the dealer to signal that you are not betting, or say "im out, I need a break" after a loss. The pit might not even notice it and you'll continue getting your comps.
Quote: camz1969If you have a small bankroll of lets say $5k to risk and the only good rules near you are at $25 tables, which is a lower ROR...a small spread like 1-4 with aggressive wonging out of negative counts or just go for a full 1-8 or 1-12(and also wonging)? I would think the small spread but then potential positive swings with the large spread could quickly get the bankroll up and then you could adjust from there. I know the ideal is to back count and bet minimum in +EV counts until bankroll grows but if it's just one casino near you it's hard to not get noticed just standing there staring for long periods.
Greetings Camz1969!
If you can tell me the exact rules/penetration of the game, I can try to help you out.
- Omega
Hope this helps!
- Omega
- Omega
I am using the Hi Lo count system with all I18 indexes. I bet one hand of 2 units on a TC 1, 4 units on a TC 2 and 8 on a TC 3 or higher. I bet zero on TC 0 or below.
I have played 8560 hands and am in a losing streak. I am down 9 units. Is this normal after 8560 hands or am I doing something wrong? I always count through the remaining cards to ensure I’ve kept count and I’m perfect. Any suggestions?
Quote: camz1969Yes, but it's difficult with a full time job and I have to weigh the EV versus the cost of traveling. I actually have never really wonged in. I've always wonged out and the pit has never seemed to care. Even wonging out of almost all negative counts though you still say go with like a 1-12 versus a small spread? A 1-6 would have the same/more ROR? The idea is to protect the original little bankroll as much as possible until (hopefully) positive variance. It's not that this will always be my bankroll but I just don't want to risk more right now.
I understand completely! I was in the same situation for a long time, it can take awhile to build the kind of bankroll that is needed to generate a real profit. A 1-6 spread will not beat a 6D H17 game, it would be break even at best. A 1-12 spread will generate an EV of around $20/hr. Unfortunately with a $5K bankroll using a $25 unit, any spread you use will have a ROR over 40%.
- Omega
Quote: NoiseySeagullsI need help. I’m practising at home. 6 decks, 75% pen, S17, DAS, 3:2 BJ, dealer has no hole card.
I am using the Hi Lo count system with all I18 indexes. I bet one hand of 2 units on a TC 1, 4 units on a TC 2 and 8 on a TC 3 or higher. I bet zero on TC 0 or below.
I have played 8560 hands and am in a losing streak. I am down 9 units. Is this normal after 8560 hands or am I doing something wrong? I always count through the remaining cards to ensure I’ve kept count and I’m perfect. Any suggestions?
Greetings NoiseySeagulls!
Yes, it is very possible to still be down after that amount of play.
- Omega
- Omega
Quote: NoiseySeagullsThanks for the answers, they’ve been really helpful. What’s your view on playing two hands? Any advantage to it? So for example at a TC2 you bet 4 units on one hand but instead you bet 2 units on 2 hands
You're very welcome! Playing 2 hands in favorable situations can be good, however to keep the same EV if you would typically place a bet of 4 units at a true 2, it would actually need to be something like 2 hands × 3 units. There's a lot to unpack on this as far the exact math, but I do believe due to card eating issues the amount you bet per hand would need to be a little more. I personally choose not to play multiple hands as I think it can bring some unwanted attention to your play, but that is just personal preference. Hope this helps!
- Omega
There is nothing wrong with being enthusiastic about the game, but be clear about ones level of experience when giving advice to newcomers.
It literally takes years to become an expert. Sadly, with the exception of Rome's, all the people I would look to for advice have left this forum.
Here is the unvarnished truth about blackjack- it takes an incredible amount of work to grind out a fairly meager living. Once people start looking at casinos in the proper perspective, blackjack is well down on the list of opportunities.
I went after the game with blinders on, ignoring so many better options for many years before I realized what I was leaving on the table. In the buffet that is the casino, card counting is the salad bar. Go for the Prime Rib.
Quote: billryanI don't really get this. Omega makes all sorts of proclamations about bj but when pressed says he is a newbie with a small bankroll. Unless I'm mistaken, and if I am I apologize, he is a new player with little real life experience who is is dealing with the theoretical. Not an seasoned veteran who is speaking from experience.
There is nothing wrong with being enthusiastic about the game, but be clear about ones level of experience when giving advice to newcomers.
It literally takes years to become an expert. Sadly, with the exception of Rome's, all the people I would look to for advice have left this forum.
Here is the unvarnished truth about blackjack- it takes an incredible amount of work to grind out a fairly meager living. Once people start looking at casinos in the proper perspective, blackjack is well down on the list of opportunities.
I went after the game with blinders on, ignoring so many better options for many years before I realized what I was leaving on the table. In the buffet that is the casino, card counting is the salad bar. Go for the Prime Rib.
What he just said.
But IF you are just focused on BJ, and it is an important part of your income, I think making sure you are not banned from a geographically convenient casino should be a priority.
Quote: billryanI don't really get this. Omega makes all sorts of proclamations about bj but when pressed says he is a newbie with a small bankroll. Unless I'm mistaken, and if I am I apologize, he is a new player with little real life experience who is is dealing with the theoretical. Not an seasoned veteran who is speaking from experience.
There is nothing wrong with being enthusiastic about the game, but be clear about ones level of experience when giving advice to newcomers.
It literally takes years to become an expert. Sadly, with the exception of Rome's, all the people I would look to for advice have left this forum.
Here is the unvarnished truth about blackjack- it takes an incredible amount of work to grind out a fairly meager living. Once people start looking at casinos in the proper perspective, blackjack is well down on the list of opportunities.
I went after the game with blinders on, ignoring so many better options for many years before I realized what I was leaving on the table. In the buffet that is the casino, card counting is the salad bar. Go for the Prime Rib.
What exactly do you not get? I am more than happy to be very clear about my level of experience, I have been a recreational player for years at the green chip level and well aware of the difficulties of being a full-time AP. I never said I was a newbie or made any reference whatsoever about the size of my bankroll. I know that Blackjack is well down on the list when it comes to advantage play, but this is the "blackjack" forum and my passion for playing is Card Counting. If you disagree or think that any of the advice I have provided to members asking questions is incorrect please feel free to dispute it. Anything else?
- Omega
Quote: NoiseySeagullsThank you. Do you know how many hands it’ll be until I’m guaranteed to be up?
I'm not being a jerk, but what do you mean by guaranteed? Of course there is no amount of BJ hands that will guarantee you a profit.
What the better math members can do, is analyze the game and rules you play, how much you spread, and give you an hourly EV, and a variance. From there you can figure out what the chance is you'd be down after any given number of hands.
The spread I’m currently using is no bet on TC 0 or below. One hand of 70£ on TC1, one hand of 140£ at TC2 and one hand of 280£ on TC3 or higher. I play I18 indexes. Could you work out the EV and variance?
Quote: NoiseySeagullsHi. The rules here are DAS, resplit aces, S17, BJ pays 3:2 and dealer has no hole card. The house edge is 0.55%.
The spread I’m currently using is no bet on TC 0 or below. One hand of 70£ on TC1, one hand of 140£ at TC2 and one hand of 280£ on TC3 or higher. I play I18 indexes. Could you work out the EV and variance?
NoiseySeagulls,
You have to give the penetration as well. For example, if the pen is zero (shuffle after each round), then your EV and Variance will both equal zero, because you'll never Wong in.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Sorry I forgot about the s around 75%
