So I've seen tons and tons of articles and discussions on how to count cards, how to calculate your EV, ROR and everything else, but never really seen much on how to actually make a living from it. So I thought it might be fun to break things down, both mathematically and practically. So here it is..How to make a million dollars playing Blackjack!
So you've bought a couple books on Blackjack, learned to count cards and done a lot of chatting on the forums..that's great but how do you actually make a living playing Blackjack?? Its extremely difficult, so I thought I would try to break it down. Let's assume for argument sake you have learned to count perfectly, can keep the running count easily and can calculate true count accurately. Let's also assume you have learned and can implement the I'll 18 indices, and you've decided to become a professional blackjack player. Well, first you're going to need some money..so let's say you saved up a little. You will need both a Bankroll and some money to live.
If you're going to quit your job and commit all your time to Blackjack for a year, you need to have either estimated the amount of money you need to live for a year, plus travel expenses, or have someone that will help you pick up the slack financially. I strongly suggest preparing the numbers accurately for yourself and/or whoever you choose to walk through life with, and with the understanding that the final outcome will be worth it. So let's talk about your playing!
Let's assume a common spread of 1-10 using I'll 18 indices (Hi-Lo) playing 2D H17 or 6D S17. Good enough to beat six deck and aggressive for double deck. So we're going to start with a spread of $5 - $50..our big bet coming out at TC+5 and leaving the table at TC-2, and only playing games with a deck penetration of at least 65% (85% for 6D). These games are out there if you try hard to find them, I live in the middle of nowhere and there is a 6D S17 LS game within a few hours away that deals down to less than a deck. Playing this way will bring a win rate of around $17 an hour (or around $2 per shoe) on a 2D game, slightly less per hour on a good 6D game. Let's talk about Bankroll!
I strongly suggest keeping your Bankroll separate from everything else, so how much money do you need? I would suggest around 100 max bets, or around $5,000. Assuming perfect play, this will give you about a 99% success rate! Meaning you will have a 99% chance of doubling that money and only 1% chance of losing it all. But what if you dont have that much? Well let's check the numbers for what you do have..
Bankroll:
$5,000 (1% risk of ruin)
$2,500 (10% risk of ruin)
$1,000 (40% risk of ruin)
So while you may not absolutely need 100 max bets, having less is a bit risky. But you can always roll the dice and see what happens!
So you take your money and hit the tables for a few months, you travel around, you get a few back offs but you dont let it stop you! You have some good days, bad days, fun times, and lonely times but after a few months of grinding it out you make some money and double your Bankroll!
That's awesome, so what now?
So at $17 an hour (or $2 per shoe) theoretically, with perfect play you should double a $5,000 Bank after about 2,500 shoes played. Now, this could happen after only 1,000 shoes or take much longer, but let's say it happened!
You now have over $10k as your Blackjack Bankroll, well I would certainly suggest a resize! It's now safe to up your bets, I would suggest to start spreading $10 - $100 (or try $5 - $100 if you think you can get away with it), this will double your hourly win rate! Again, it should take you (theoretically) another 2,500 shoes played to double that up, or around 3,000 to bring your bank from $10k up to $25k. And now your risk of ruin with a $10,000 Bankroll spreading $10 - $100 is again 1%. But what happens if after a resize you experience a big loss? All that hard work and months of winnings being lost, that sucks! Well that's why we keep our Bankroll separate, because there is a way to protect it. With a $10k Bankroll, by resizing up you have a 90% chance of doubling it up again and only a 10% chance of losing back what you have won (just your winnings, not your entire Bankroll). If you unfortunately get knocked back down to $5k, you should go back to spreading $5 - $50 and start over, doing this resets your risk back to 1%, if you continue spreading $10 - $100 with only $5k then your risk will be around 10%. If you choose to resize everytime your Bankroll is either doubled or cut in half, you can expect in the long run to double your bankroll 9 times and only have to downsize once. So it wouldn't be out of the ordinary for after a solid year of full-time play to double your Bankroll 3 or 4 times! So as an example, this is what it would look like..
$5 - $50 ($5,000)
$10 - $100 ($10,000)
$25 - $250 ($25,000)
$50 - $500 ($50,000)
$100 - $1,000 ($100,000)
So let's say after a year of full-time play you have logged around 10,000 shoes (or well over 1,000 hours), you could mathematically expect to have doubled your Bankroll 4 times, taking it from just $5,000 - to nearly $100,000! And the best part is now, every year, you can continue to play full-time and expect to make this much, if not more, every single year! You can now begin to put away a percentage of your winnings (let's say 25%) to live off of while continuing to build your Bankroll and keeping your risk astronomically low. Mathematically if you were to run a spread of $100 - $1,000, with a Bankroll of over $100,000 you would expect to rack up $1M of EV at about 25,000 shoes played. That is only a few years of full-time play!
Now I know what you're thinking by now, this is just a bunch of bullshit! Before then you will just be trespassed by every Casino in the Country and probably end up broke..but try telling that to guys like Tommy Hyland who have been doing this for decades! Guys like KC, Ryemo, Yoshi and myself who are doing this now, or Colin Jones who made millions by not only trusting the math, but inspiring others to do the same! My purpose of this post, if nothing else, is to provide an interesting read and hopefully inspire someone the way I have been inspired. Hope to hear some feedback from you guys!
- Omega
A: Avoid card counting.Quote: theOmega623How to make a million dollars playing Blackjack!
AND THEN DOUBLE THAT AMOUNT. People never seem to calculate life getting in the way. IE. your car breaks down, you get sick, you meet some chick has cost you a lot of money, you get robbed, eating Top Ramen daily to save money doesn't fare well and all the other little things that end up nickeling and diming you to death.Quote: theOmega623If you're going to quit your job and commit all your time to Blackjack for a year, you need to have either estimated the amount of money you need to live for a year, plus travel expenses
That's the ticket. Especially if you find yourself a sugar daddy or mama in poor health.Quote: theOmega623or have someone that will help you pick up the slack financially.
Quote: theOmega623I highly recommend 21st Century Card Counter by Colin Jones. He and his wife were substitute teachers, he also waited tables and started with only a $2k BR. Even myself, my wife is a 1st grade teacher and we just had our first child..took some savings and started back playing this year. Far cry away from a million, but it sure beats making excuses on forums..
Making excuses and exaggerating ones income are about the same to me.
ZCore13
I'm gonna stop typing now.
how many $ millions have you made so far?
I'm thinking you've probably made at least $15 million - is that about right?
Quote: ChumpChangeThere's gotta be an easier way without getting kicked out of the casino.
I'm gonna stop typing now.
Sometimes the easiest way to double your money
Is fold it in half and stuff it back into your wallet
(Quote by Alfred E. Neumann, Mad magazine)
The reason there is little talk about BJ is twofold...... It's all been said already, and there are just WAY more lucrative opportunities in a casino. Loss rebates, free play opportunities, vulturing, must hits, scarabs, bubbles, multiplier days, etc....
No one doubts that you can beat the house at BJ counting..... It's the "millions" part that has some ears pinned back.
Welcome to the forum!
Quote: theOmega623How to make a million dollars playing Blackjack!
- Omega
Take $2 million.
Quote: theOmega623I can see already that posting on this particular forum is a waste of time, I think I will network elsewhere. Good luck guys
That's probably a good choice. If you think $17 an hour for your time is worth working for with no health insurance, no paid time off, no retirement and a dead end future, you should go somewhere where that will be appreciated. Maybe a fast food workers forum? This forum has a good amount of professional AP's and casino management. Many have been here over 10 years. You have to do better than that to teach us something.
ZCore13
Quote: theOmega623Hope to hear some feedback from you guys!
- Omega
Quote: theOmega623I can see already that posting on this particular forum is a waste of time, I think I will network elsewhere. Good luck guys
Your choice. You asked for feedback. You got it.
If the mob accepts an objective benchmark and if subsequently an avowed advantage player asserts having surpassed it, then we should let him speak his piece and offer his proofs without mob catcalls. Doing otherwise is figuratively moving the goalposts. For example, average dollars gained per unit of time is not a useful metric: poker player Chris Ferguson tested his skills risking pennies online while using a bankroll of $100 before winning his WSOP bracelets. Total career winnings need not be a fanciful figure such as $15 million in order to establish professional legitimacy.
Wrong quote. In your case you end up with 3 million.Quote: LovecompsStart with 2 million.
Quote: theOmega623I am currently spreading green chips making what I consider a good amount, certainly have not made any millions but have logged about 120 hours this year already and up a good amount. The $17 per hr amount was just an example to show that you can make at least minimum wage playing blackjack even with a small starting bankroll with the opportunity to make much more in the long run, I thought that point would have been obvious. I can see already that posting on this particular forum is a waste of time, I think I will network elsewhere. Good luck guys
Please don't be so thin skinned. No successful counter has less trouble than you would on these forums. Please continue to post and let us know your experiences.
Quote: theOmega623I assure you I am not thin skinned, nothing to do with hurt feelings, just dont see the point in taking time to post on a forum if it will not be met with any intellectual response or at least some quality conversation on the topics. I respect you asking me to continue posting and I will consider doing so, we all know that for most being an AP is a somewhat lonely experience, most people that you know in your every day life either don't understand what you do or take little interest in it. If some members of this forum would like to challenge parts of my post as incorrect, by all means do so. Saving money and slowly building a bankroll playing low stakes is neither stupid or anything to be ashamed of, in fact that is exactly how many players on the pro level started out, including myself. However, making condescending responses in an obvious attempt to make the posting member feel like an idiot not only brings down the quality of the forum and shows immaturity in the community, but it discourages newcomers from posting their thoughts and ideas. And it doesnt matter how long you have been here, being a jackass for 10 years doesn't impress anyone. I understand that the claim of making a million dollars playing Blackjack is a bold statement, hence the part in the beginning when I first described it as extremely difficult, but acting as if it's impossible to do so is simply not true as it has been done. I apologize for the lengthy response, I come here hoping to build relationships with other professionals and I look forward to hearing your experiences as well!
Your initial post on this thread reminds me a bit of the A to Z Card Counting article. I think that article is something really helpful to people looking to get a start at AP and learn more about it. Nothing shameful or wrong with your post; you're just being teased since many of the forum members here are pretty skilled APs with a diverse skill set or they're casino personnel who've heard it all before. Your post wasn't bad, it's just been said before.
Quote: theOmega623How to make a million dollars playing Blackjack!
Now I know what you're thinking by now, this is just a bunch of bullshit! Before then you will just be trespassed by every Casino in the Country and probably end up broke..but try telling that to guys like Tommy Hyland who have been doing this for decades! Guys like KC, Ryemo, Yoshi and myself who are doing this now, or Colin Jones who made millions by not only trusting the math, but inspiring others to do the same! My purpose of this post, if nothing else, is to provide an interesting read and hopefully inspire someone the way I have been inspired. Hope to hear some feedback from you guys!
- Omega
wikipedia:
"In 2011, The Church Team disbanded when it became “less fun and less profitable.” Eventually many casinos caught on, and banned members from playing their tables."
I don't think that it will be as easy to play under the radar at the level you are suggesting for long. Surveillance watches pink action carefully.
If you want to fly under the radar, half or more of your profit goes to travel expenses. I think a tech job or franchisee would make more ROI. You'd probably have to enjoy the process of card counting as much as or more than the money. I saw a youtube title making $500 /day mowing lawns.
Quote: theOmega623I am currently spreading green chips making what I consider a good amount, certainly have not made any millions but have logged about 120 hours this year already and up a good amount. The $17 per hr amount was just an example to show that you can make at least minimum wage playing blackjack even with a small starting bankroll with the opportunity to make much more in the long run, I thought that point would have been obvious. I can see already that posting on this particular forum is a waste of time, I think I will network elsewhere. Good luck guys
How many hours the average for someone to learn this skill? I'm just wondering, not really interested and don't think I have the mental sharpness needed.
It seems to imply that you've already made a million but then you post about being fairly new.
Quote: theOmega623@jjjoooggg You know to my surprise, I really havent experienced much heat so far in my career. A lot of times Casino personnel seem uninterested in my play, and typically if the $25 tables are empty and the $10 tables aren't very packed (as I typically play early in the morning), I will play with others just to be social and blend in. I've had conversations laughing with pit bosses as I am placing maximum bets, but this definitely varies greatly from place to place and this may be very different when playing at the black chip level. I recently spoke with Colin and he said he still plays from time to time, also watched an interview he did with Tommy Hyland and he said he still gets in around 300 hours a year even after all the years he has been playing. I think you just have to play and if they throw you out, so be it.
I have a friend who is a financial advisor and a high roller. I took him on a junket to one of my favorite casinos a couple years ago, among a group of friends and the woman he was dating. He made some pre-arrangements before he arrived, but the pertinent part to this thread was that he was allowed to spread his BJ play from one hand at $100 to 3 hands at $5000 each while playing a 6 deck shoe.
So it's not just spread that gets people 86'd. And I don't know who set the table min/max, but might have been the casino rather than him. I know he played for 25k/hand (and sometimes spread) at MGM Grand the previous month, so I don't think he set it.
This was not in LV, but they offered the best they had.
This was the first time he'd been to this casino, though it's part of a chain, and he had a system host who set things up. Perhaps part of that was the host vouching for him not being an AP - I wasn't part of that negotiation.
Some of the details:
They kept a reserved table for him open and staffed, 24/7 for 4 days straight. Not just a dealer, but a floor, and a security guard.
No one else was allowed to play there. There was a scuffle while I was hanging with him when a German-speaking high-roller tried to sit down and was rebuffed, got angry and loud and had to be moved out by security and the pit boss (both of whom were assigned to the table). I really doubt they wanted to piss off this other guy, but he got 100% stiff-armed without apology anyway.
There was a constantly replenished table of food and drink behind us. Nice for grazing.
They had a fully stocked 2 br suite with full bar and snacks, open movie channels, all the perks.
We were all comped to anything we wanted in the spa, and golf course if we wanted to play.
We had dinner on the casino at the best restaurant in town on them, including about 1k in wine, and their limo transport over there. Limos suck, btw, unless you sit right at the door. You have to crawl on hands and knees to your seat. Funny how it's a status symbol.
Not sure how he came out. I didn't see him do markers, but he started with 2-100k racks of yellows, so I think he had front money at the cage and just did his stuff there rather than at the table. If he had a rebate or other discount set, he didn't say (and I didn't ask). I would guess he might have played 20 hours over the 4 days.
Quote: theOmega623Wow that's insane, I cant imagine what it would feel like to have that amount of money riding on a hand..makes you wonder if it was some kind of advantage play. That's a lot of playing time with that kind of action. I've heard some pretty incredible stories on podcasts on some of the things players have done to get away with their plays and insane comps. I've never actually been inside a limo, but nice to know they are overrated lol
He's a financial planner working with people's fortunes and one of his own, and reportedly objectively good at it. So I would have to think his math skills are right up there. If he counts, they don't seem to care. He's not got a huge ego so i guess he doesn't feel the need to discuss his wins, losses, or methods. (No shot at anyone intended - just that he discourages any discussion of his play.)
My brother hung hard with him in Vegas twice that previous month, and best he could tell, he took them for 265K the first weekend, then dropped 160k the next time. They stayed in the Sky Suites both times. The guy thought my brother was a good luck charm and had him cutting all his shoes.
BTW- next time you are in a limo, sit in the first seat by the door and simply scoot down a few inches at a time. Much more dignified and it's actually easier.
Quote: theOmega623You never can tell how some places will react to your play though, years ago I was playing in the high limit room at Monte Carlo playing the 2D S17 game, I was spreading $50 - $250 and just decided I was going to play until they backed me off. Me and my then fiance were staying in the hotel. I played all night for about 5-6 hours straight and was down about $1,800 and a nice lady came up to me during the shuffle, introduced herself and said she was comping our 3 night stay. I was like thank you so much, and kept playing lol
I sat at that game probably 5 years ago, played a few shuffles and the pit crew was going nuts, on the phone, etc. I was pretty green at the time so I just left. Who knows what they were actually doing, could have been calling a host LOL.
TBH I am still pretty green, I haven't played seriously since that trip. In the intervening years, listening to GWAE and reading here, I have determined that I was far too cautious. Especially for a tourist who wasn't going to set foot in the town again for who knows how long.
Now if your goal is to win $1MM lifetime... that isn't so daunting. Are you counting the value of comps at full retail? If you factor that in, as many do, you don't need to "win" it all in cash since the casino rebates some of it in RFB.
If any of my AP friends here are ever playing on the east coast let me know, I stay in the Raleigh area and keep a guest room. Also know of a really great game a couple hours from where I stay, 6D S17 LS with 85% pen. I play it frequently and they never bother me.
Quote: theOmega623I will be making another trip to Harrah's Cherokee this weekend, a friend of mine keeps telling me I should quit playing Indian casinos before I get tomahawked in the head and my chips taken LOL but he's right I should prob stop playing there, I've heard bad stories. Going to be traveling through Pennsylvania hitting a few different places after that then flying to Vegas, any players out in the PA area?
If any of my AP friends here are ever playing on the east coast let me know, I stay in the Raleigh area and keep a guest room. Also know of a really great game a couple hours from where I stay, 6D S17 LS with 85% pen. I play it frequently and they never bother me.
I like Harrah's Cherokee very much. Curious about your stories indicating otherwise.
Lots of heat and they confiscate chippies.Quote: beachbumbabsI like Harrah's Cherokee very much. Curious about your stories indicating otherwise.
Quote: AxelWolfA million isn't that great if it takes 20 years.
It's more than the average American will take home.
Quote: AxelWolfA million isn't that great if it takes 20 years.
That's $50,000 a year, for 20 years. That's nothing to sneeze at. It's more money than I've ever made in a year. One person can live fairly comfortably on $50k a year almost anywhere in the country. In a LCOL area, you could probably even raise a family on that.
Quote: TigerWuThat's $50,000 a year, for 20 years. That's nothing to sneeze at. It's more money than I've ever made in a year. One person can live fairly comfortably on $50k a year almost anywhere in the country. In a LCOL area, you could probably even raise a family on that.
Almost anywhere is correct
Average NYC rent is $2000 now for 2 bedroom apt.
That's $24,000 a year in rent WITHOUT utilities
That leaves $26,000 BEFORE TAXES.
You will probably find yourself living on about $500 a month after all is said and done
Quote: darkozQuote: TigerWuThat's $50,000 a year, for 20 years. That's nothing to sneeze at. It's more money than I've ever made in a year. One person can live fairly comfortably on $50k a year almost anywhere in the country. In a LCOL area, you could probably even raise a family on that.
Almost anywhere is correct
Average NYC rent is $2000 now for 2 bedroom apt.
That's $24,000 a year in rent WITHOUT utilities
That leaves $26,000 BEFORE TAXES.
You will probably find yourself living on about $500 a month after all is said and done
Unless one does something radical, like take in a roommate or have a partner who works. If one can't afford a two bedroom, there is a thing called a studio apartment. There are a couple million New Yorkers managing without making 50K. Most don't have a pension plan or company health insurance.
Quote: billryanQuote: darkozQuote: TigerWuThat's $50,000 a year, for 20 years. That's nothing to sneeze at. It's more money than I've ever made in a year. One person can live fairly comfortably on $50k a year almost anywhere in the country. In a LCOL area, you could probably even raise a family on that.
Almost anywhere is correct
Average NYC rent is $2000 now for 2 bedroom apt.
That's $24,000 a year in rent WITHOUT utilities
That leaves $26,000 BEFORE TAXES.
You will probably find yourself living on about $500 a month after all is said and done
Unless one does something radical, like take in a roommate or have a partner who works. If one can't afford a two bedroom, there is a thing called a studio apartment. There are a couple million New Yorkers managing without making 50K. Most don't have a pension plan or company health insurance.
Even the studios in Austin are high. Rent has increased twice as fast as inflation within the last 30 years. Groceries, I think has gone beyond double.
But 50K is more than what most probably make. Cops and high school teachers make 40k/ year. It is alot more than min wage at 7.50 which equates to 15k / year. I feel like I own slaves with a restaurant. I'm ready to quit the restaurant after my parents die. I will probably continue AC for the rest of my life, part time.