Blasphemous Blackjack

Am I now to be an Apostate now in the Church of the Wizard?


I've considered this for a long time and now I'm going to do it. My next planned opportunity at BJ will be an 8 deck, dealer hits on all 17s game. In the past a $5 game has been available, but I think that has changed to $10. 


For -EV play, which is pretty much what I'm about , it's seemed to me for a long time that it is a reasonable thing to trade increasing the HE in return for greater variance, an un-Wizardly approach it must be admitted. In fact advocating this may actually horrify the Wizard. Yet I submit* for the negative expectation player, Variance can be more valuable than lower house edge, especially when it involves modest surrender of edge. In a game that is too low in variance like Blackjack [flat-betting], I think it may be the way to go, along with some precautions and some caveats. 


Previously I was happy with the idea that my BJ play and my Craps play, all I ever do anymore in table games, were about on the same level, i.e., against something around 0.5% HE. But I have really found that I enjoy the Craps play while the BJ? ... not so much. The difference I feel is pretty much around the difference in the Variance, high [because of free odds] in Craps and low [flat-betting] in BJ. 


To fix this in BJ, there are plenty of folks who have said to apply card counting techniques, and certainly doing that would be the end of flat-betting and low Variance. I have considered this and have gotten far enough long to have learned BS - but that's it, and not to the level of reflex either. The fact of the matter is that I don't put the time in at the casino like I'd have to, this for a number of reasons, including that I just don't live close enough to one. Yeah, there are ways to learn it outside a casino, but I'm going to say that won't work unless you combine it with casino time - it wouldn't work for me for sure. 


Randomly varying bet size on hunches or whatever would increase Variance too, but who is going to advocate that? Nope, not going down that road, even though I wonder if it makes more sense than flat-betting. 


I currently believe the way to increase the Variance is to increase doubling and splitting, though it is said that double, double means toil and trouble. Take those 'precautions' ? The cost in HE should be reasonably low. 


I used Wizard's table, see link, which views it from player's edge. I saved the number-crunching in a blog post titled 'Blasphemy'


I am changing BS in the following manner, indicating the cost on a $10 bet per each decision. 


*soft 13, doubling vs dealer 4, cost of 36 cents


*soft 14, doubling vs 4, cost of 15 cents, it's on!


*soft 19, doubling vs 5,  29 cents, a good qualifier


*doubling with 10 vs 10, 33 cents, likewise


*doubling with 9 vs 2,   9 cents,  yes indeed!! 


*doubling with 8 vs 6 ,  25 cents, qualifies


*splitting, das allowed, 4,4 vs 4, 40 cents 


*splitting, das allowed, 6,6 vs 7,  37 cents


So that is where I'm at for the moment and for the next anticipated circumstance. It gives me eight additional opportunities to increase my bet and thus the variance; I wish there were more but I do have to mind the cost. 


Further caveat has to be to limit amount of total action. Negative expectation betting just turns from 'no big deal' into foolishness. I am thinking I will do one shoe per day, and I hope it means increased enjoyment . I'll go so far with my blasphemy as to say I think every negative expectation player out there should double 9 against a dealer 2. I wish I could calculate EV/SD on this but I don't know what the change in Variance actually is. I'd really be impressed if someone knows. 


Your thoughts?


*I'm curious as to whether anyone has seen a bonafide gambling writer cover this topic


https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/expected-values/

Quote: odiousgambit

Am I now to be an Apostate now in the Church of the Wizard?

Your thoughts?


*I'm curious as to whether anyone has seen a bonafide gambling writer cover this topic


https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/expected-values/

You need in to throw in some Martingale and hit and run strategies and then to REALLY crown it, come back here and post a picture of your winnings and Rolex.
$;o)

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: odiousgambit

Am I now to be an Apostate now in the Church of the Wizard?

Your thoughts?


*I'm curious as to whether anyone has seen a bonafide gambling writer cover this topic


https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/expected-values/

You need in to throw in some Martingale and hit and run strategies and then to REALLY crown it, come back here and post a picture of your winnings and Rolex.
$;o)

I do wonder if *any* kind of deviation from flat-betting BJ makes more sense than flat-betting.

Although I will post that picture for you should I get lucky ... I won't lose track of the fact that increased Variance can cut both ways, sir.

I'd buy-in for $200 at a $5 table (and $400 at a $10 table, and $600 at a $15 table, and $1000 at a $25 table) using my special strategies that don't involve flat betting unless I'm stuck at the bottom of a losing streak. There's an equal chance of going bust, and an equal chance I'll double or quadruple my money. Maybe quitting for the day after 4 hours and up a couple bets to pay for the gas is where it's at though.

Quote: ChumpChange

special strategies that don't involve flat betting ...

do tell!

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, I'm pondering just what kind of response I really expected. I'm examining the possibilities

1] I've scandalized absolutely everyone with the blasphemy, not just the Wizard [if he saw it], and all are nearly speechless

2]actually nobody knows what the hell I'm trying to say. I think this may be a stronger possibility

3] it's not about reversing the HE to player advantage [edit], but anybody reading it who tries to find the place in the post where -EV is supposed to change to +EV, can't find it, and gives up

4] readers 'get it' but nobody cares. Another strong possibility

Quote: me

I'll go so far with my blasphemy as to say I think every negative expectation player out there should double 9 against a dealer 2

I really would like to know what the argument is against this. I will grant you that maybe I should say 'most' not 'every' because it does depend on whether or not you agree that the Variance flat-betting BJ with an unmodified BS is too low to begin with. Other than that I am ready to go to the mat on this.

Quote: odiousgambit

do tell!

I really would like to know what the argument is against this. I will grant you that maybe I should say 'most' not 'every' because it does depend on whether or not you agree that the Variance flat-betting BJ with an unmodified BS is too low to begin with. Other than that I am ready to go to the mat on this.

No argument from me.

I'm firmly with you on this. There's nothing more boring and relentless than flat, min betting at Blackjack. Mixing it up with just a 5,10,15,15, 15 progressive, or doubling some borderline hands will have negligible effects on house edge and will multiply the fun value significantly. Weirdly, it will also increase your probability of increasing your bankroll significantly, while, of course increasing your probability of going bust quickly... all the while at the silly cost of reducing your probability of a boringly long break even session.
Go for it!

Oh hell, if you crave variance go play Mississippi Stud. Or Criss Cross. Those’ll vary you. Lose 15 hands in a row, then a pair of kings gets you even.

9 vs 2, 8 decks, H17

4-5 vs 2 Double = +6.573%; Hit = + 7.491%
2-7 vs 2 Double = +6.559%; Hit = + 7.350%

I noted that he didn't say hit soft 17. He said hit all 17s. Instead of standing, as virtually every BJ ga me requires. I guess in his dream deal, he gets to set the rules, and I would think that one would change the EV just a skosh. Was waiting for a correction on that sentence, doesn't seem to be coming, so perhaps that's the hook.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I noted that he didn't say hit soft 17. He said hit all 17s. Instead of standing, as virtually every BJ ga me requires. I guess in his dream deal, he gets to set the rules, and I would think that one would change the EV just a skosh. Was waiting for a correction on that sentence, doesn't seem to be coming, so perhaps that's the hook.

I see blasphemers are to be addressed in the third person LOL.

No hook, you are correct, for some reason I was thinking 'hit all 17s' was another way to say 'hit soft 17s' which makes no sense at all. Why do I think I saw a sign like that once? I can change it in the blog post but not the thread I think. The Wizard's data has the correct scenario, not some imaginary thing, not to worry... sorry.

As for changing the EV, yes, it changes the EV for the worst... and the HE, that's not what I mean, changed that in my last thread post.

I will respond to Gordon too, need some time to catch up.

Thanks for the input.

Quote: gordonm888

9 vs 2, 8 decks, H17

4-5 vs 2 Double = +6.573%; Hit = + 7.491%
2-7 vs 2 Double = +6.559%; Hit = + 7.350%

OK, I get the same thing, double-checking, on player 4,5 so I will assume we get the same thing on 2,7

Now, you do know I am not saying the HE shifts in a favorable way, though I did have to go back and edit a post to make that clear.

Seeing it as a percentage makes it a more shocking apostasy yet, doesn't it?

Yet it still is a matter of giving up an additional 8 or 9 cents on a $10 bet. To be sure, if you can play BJ and do it with player advantage, why give up the 9 cents? You do not want increased variance if you have the advantage. If you simply play a lot of BJ, you probably don't want to give up the 9 cents either - though I wouldn't know why you'd still be flat-betting.

One other thing to realize is that it's not an EV change on every bet; even with 8 additonal places to double versus normal BS, I think the opportunities are only going to be maybe 2, 3, or 4 times on average per shoe, though I don't know how to figure that out. The HE of the shoe isn't going to increase by nearly one percent.

This post is in response to the OP, see link below https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/34025-blasphemous-blackjack/#post749278

---
I assumed the game was as follows:
8 deck (stated), H17 (stated), DAS (implied from "strategy deviations"), Double any 2 cards (implied...)
Assumptions: BJ pays 3/2, no surrender, and split 2 times to make 3 hands (used this option, because my pc is slow, and there is "not much difference" between "making 3 and making 4 hands").
Edit/update (about 140 pm): I also assumed it was an "OBO" / "dealer peeks for BJ" game.

" *soft 13, doubling vs dealer 4, cost of 36 cents
*soft 14, doubling vs 4, cost of 15 cents, it's on!
*soft 19, doubling vs 5, 29 cents, a good qualifier
*doubling with 10 vs 10, 33 cents, likewise
*doubling with 9 vs 2, 9 cents, yes indeed!!
*doubling with 8 vs 6 , 25 cents, qualifies
*splitting, das allowed, 4,4 vs 4, 40 cents
*splitting, das allowed, 6,6 vs 7, 37 cents "

With the above BS changes obtained from your OP, I think the overall initial bet EV*** only moves from about -0.654% (total dependent) to about -0.712% ("your strategy")

***: If you played: 1 spot per game, 100 hands an hour, 5 hours a week, and played every week for 50 years, it would cost you about $7,474^^^ in EV, when betting $10 per bet.

^^^: That figure looks like a lot, but it is only about $150 per year or ~ $2.87 per week, if you played 500 hands per week , at $10 per bet.

Note: I haven't played much BJ in live/ "brick and mortar" casinos, so I don't know how many hands are played per hour in general (but this was just a "hypothetical" any way).

---
Thoughts:
I am probably 'regurgitating' what at least one other forum member likes to say, but if the 'extra enjoyment' from doing these plays 'outweighs the cost' of doing so, then you should do it / keep doing it.

I personally would try your strategy out a few times if I was the only one at the table^*^.

^*^: I like to keep the 'flow' as smooth as possible when other people are at the table by playing as close to BS as I can, even though I know it wouldn't change the long-term EV of the other players' hands, it will stop some potential arguments with 'other players', like "you took the dealer's bust card", but at the same time the "table" will "forget" the hands that you "gave the dealer a bust card" by doing these BS deviations.

Note: Even when you are playing correct BS, it still doesn't guarantee that someone will not take their "anger out on you", but I can handle that when I know I am playing the "correct way".

Also Note: I used to be like those 'other players', when i saw really stupid moves,
Example of a "stupid move" I have seen at least a few times: I used to yell out "you got a free hit" when someone would stand on a soft 16 against a 2 (in these situations, even the dealer would often say "are you sure ?" or something similar).

Quote: ksdjdj

This post is in response to the OP, see link below https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/34025-blasphemous-blackjack/#post749278

---
I assumed the game was as follows:
8 deck (stated), H17 (stated), DAS (implied from "strategy deviations"), Double any 2 cards (implied...)
Assumptions: BJ pays 3/2, no surrender, and split 2 times to make 3 hands (used this option, because my pc is slow, and there is "not much difference" between "making 3 and making 4 hands").

" *soft 13, doubling vs dealer 4, cost of 36 cents
*soft 14, doubling vs 4, cost of 15 cents, it's on!
*soft 19, doubling vs 5, 29 cents, a good qualifier
*doubling with 10 vs 10, 33 cents, likewise
*doubling with 9 vs 2, 9 cents, yes indeed!!
*doubling with 8 vs 6 , 25 cents, qualifies
*splitting, das allowed, 4,4 vs 4, 40 cents
*splitting, das allowed, 6,6 vs 7, 37 cents "

With the above BS changes obtained from your OP, I think the overall initial bet EV*** only moves from about -0.654% (total dependent) to about -0.712% ("your strategy")

***: If you played: 1 spot per game, 100 hands an hour, 5 hours a week, and played every week for 50 years, it would cost you about $7,474^^^ in EV, when betting $10 per bet.

^^^: That figure looks like a lot, but it is only about $150 per year or ~ $2.87 per week, if you played 500 hands per week , at $10 per bet.

Note: I haven't played much BJ in live/ "brick and mortar" casinos, so I don't know how many hands are played per hour in general (but this was just a "hypothetical" any way).

---
Thoughts:
I am probably 'regurgitating' what at least one other forum member likes to say, but if the 'extra enjoyment' from doing these plays 'outweighs the cost' of doing so, then you should do it / keep doing it.

I personally would try your strategy out a few times if I was the only one at the table^*^.

^*^: I like to keep the 'flow' as smooth as possible when other people are at the table by playing as close to BS as we as I can, even though I know it wouldn't change the long-term EV of the other players hands it will stop some potential arguments with 'other players', like "you took the dealer's bust card", but at the same time the "table" will "forget" the hands that you "gave the dealer a bust card" by doing these "BS" deviations.

Note: Even when you are playing correct BS, it still doesn't guarantee that someone will not take their "anger out on you", but I can handle that when I know I am playing the "correct way".

Also Note: I used to be like those 'other players', when i saw really stupid moves,
Example of a "stupid move" I have seen at least a few times: I used to yell out "you got a free hit" when someone would stand on a soft 16 against a 2 (in these situations, even the dealer would say "are you sure ?" or something similar).

Thanks for the input, you are calculating some things I wouldn't know how to do.

Yes, I am really counting on it improving my enjoyment, which it certainly will do in the short run due to the mere fact I'm excited about trying it out. In the long run it will depend on whether or not it changes the feel of the game for me. I had quit playing BJ at all for about 2 years, probably more, about the time I realized using BS with flat-betting is just not the ticket for me, somebody else's mileage might vary.

PS: now it's going to be me looking stupid, making moves that in the past I would have seen and shaken my head about the guy who doesn't know BS.

If doubling your bet on plays that you shouldn't somehow makes the game more exciting, why not just double your original bets and play properly?

Quote: billryan

If doubling your bet on plays that you shouldn't somehow makes the game more exciting, why not just double your original bets and play properly?

Being practical isn't fun.

Quote: odiousgambit

Thanks for the input, you are calculating some things I wouldn't know how to do.

Yes, I am really counting on it improving my enjoyment, which it certainly will do in the short run due to the mere fact I'm excited about trying it out. In the long run it will depend on whether or not it changes the feel of the game for me. I had quit playing BJ at all for about 2 years, probably more, about the time I realized using BS with flat-betting is just not the ticket for me, somebody else's mileage might vary.

PS: now it's going to be me looking stupid, making moves that in the past I would have seen and shaken my head about the guy who doesn't know BS.

I just had a quick look, and for a 6-deck*** game, I think the hands you mention would only occur about 2% of the time.
***: I didn't have a spreadsheet set up for 8-deck, but I think it should still be close enough.

-----
If you also like to play online and are looking for a game that "pays you" when you make BS "deviations / mistakes", then you should play the game below:

site: 5dimes
Game: Options Blackjack
Where to find it: click on "Mini Games" >>> "Mini Blackjack" >>> "Options Blackjack"

Note: If you bet $20 + per bet, the game has a slight player edge, of at least 0.078%^^^

^^^: I haven't checked what the best plays are for all the options yet, so that is why the player edge is "at least 0.078%" (when betting a minimum of $20 per bet).

When playing this game, below are some examples of when using your "BS deviations" is also the "best play":
1) doubling with 9 vs 2, the game/casino pays you $0.26 to double your $20 bet.
2) soft 14, doubling vs 4, the game/casino pays you $0.43 to double your $20 bet.
3) doubling with 10 vs 10, the game/casino pays you $0.67 to double your $20 bet.
4) splitting, das allowed, 4,4 vs 4, the game/casino pays you $1.00 to split your $20 bet.

below is the single best BS deviation for this game I have found so far (in terms of increasing the games' overall EV):
. double hard 6 vs 10, the game/casino pays you $21.10 to double your $20 bet.

Important: don't assume that all the "options" are close to "fair", below is one example of an "unfair" compensation:
. hard 20 vs dealer 10 (after checking dealer has BJ). the game offers you an "early payout" of $21.04.
Note: your theoretical RTP for the above hand would be about $31.18 (so you are losing more than $10 in EV, by taking the "early payout" in the above example)

Lastly, I am not trying to "restart" a thread, but this is related to a thread I started a while ago.
Note: because the game doesn't seem to have a big enough advantage for serious APs, I think it is fine to post the name of the game and casino that offers it.

Quote: billryan

If doubling your bet on plays that you shouldn't somehow makes the game more exciting, why not just double your original bets and play properly?

Because that wouldn't affect variance at all, you're still flat-betting, it sounds like. I think you have to be doubling or splitting to affect variance, or maybe somebody can explain how you're right and I'm wrong.

The theory is that doubling and splitting affect variance. I'm picking only 8 additional-to-BS [edit] places where I'm doubling or splitting, if I don't find more. Those places have a low cost, the idea being to trade edge for variance. And low cost spots to do it are hard to find. From my way of thinking about it, finding places to hit instead of stand as BS calls for, for example, are just extra cost with no way it's affecting variance.

ksdjdj, I've decided online play is 'out' for me, for a number of reasons, one of which is that I wouldn't trust myself to keep from going off the deep end.

Quote: odiousgambit

(snip) one of which is that I wouldn't trust myself to keep from going off the deep end.

Me too (at least "past tense") as In the past I was not the best in the world at keeping to my "limits" with all these good games I find, I should have made between 10 to 20 x the money that I had made from gambling during that period, but due to "on tilt***" betting, over betting my bank-roll, and other mistakes I cant think of at the moment, I haven't had as good a run then, as I should have.
***: In other words I gave a lot of my long term "EV" back to the casinos (due to making "stupid decisions when my emotions were controlling me".).

Someone could argue that is one indicator of having a "gambling problem", but for me I think it was more of an "anxiety problem"^^^.
^^^: Since my anxiety problem has been diagnosed and treated, I haven't bet "on-tilt" or "over bet my bank roll".

He* has been testing the OBS** with a free game to practice memorization but also try to get a handle on how it will affect things. He now fears it will have little affect as he has found a player can go through what he would estimate to be a full shoe without one of the BS deviations appearing. He suspects once might be average, three times is a lot. That's good news for the EV but bad news for his experiment, which was to see if he could get an uptick in the variance. 

He'll still going to go through with it as planned, on the lookout for new deviations but still rejecting expensive ones. He's got myself too stoked not to try it after putting some work into it like he has. He thinks it will mean two things need to happen, one is to get more OBS qualifiers than average, and the other is to simply get lucky with them if they do since increased variance is a double edged sword that may cut the wrong way. 


*I have discovered that a blasphemer needs to be referred to in the 3rd person
**OBS = Odious Basic Strategy (literally odious to some)

Not living close to a casino can be an advantage, you have to go a long way to the next one anyway.

Quote: odiousgambit

He* has been testing the OBS** with a free game to practice memorization but also try to get a handle on how it will affect things. He now fears it will have little affect as he has found a player can go through what he would estimate to be a full shoe without one of the BS deviations appearing. He suspects once might be average, three times is a lot. That's good news for the EV but bad news for his experiment, which was to see if he could get an uptick in the variance. 

He'll still going to go through with it as planned, on the lookout for new deviations but still rejecting expensive ones. He's got myself too stoked not to try it after putting some work into it like he has. He thinks it will mean two things need to happen, one is to get more OBS qualifiers than average, and the other is to simply get lucky with them if they do since increased variance is a double edged sword that may cut the wrong way. 


*I have discovered that a blasphemer needs to be referred to in the 3rd person
**OBS = Odious Basic Strategy (literally odious to some)

Yer Killin me, hon. I didn't read your OP as well as I might have. I thought you were crafting the ideal BJ game, where the house would hit all 17s, and that was the blasphemy so cleverly inserted, just to see if we were awake. Did not mean to give you snot in the form of third person reference.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Yer Killin me, hon. I didn't read your OP as well as I might have. I thought you were crafting the ideal BJ game, where the house would hit all 17s, and that was the blasphemy so cleverly inserted, just to see if we were awake. Did not mean to give you snot in the form of third person reference.

No worries, I got a kick out of it. Took a chance on ribbing you about it. At the same time you may have given some satisfaction to the Wizard, to see a blasphemer get properly slapped around a bit LOL.

I'll be testing OBS* sometime today possibly but certainly by tomorrow. Practice has pretty much convinced me the effect will be limited, many of these deviations just seem to never show up. Player 10 against dealer 10 decision - in which I now double - is the one that shows up the most. 

I have found a few more in addition to up-thread, number crunching preserved in the now edited blog post:


double soft 15 versus dealer 3 
double soft 16 versus dealer 3 
double soft 17 versus dealer 2 
split player pair 2,2 vs dealer 8 
split player pair 3,3 vs dealer 8  
split player pair 7,7 vs dealer 8 

And one last blasphemous assertion: All negative expectation, flat-betting BJ players should double soft 17 versus dealer 2 in addition to the [previously asserted up-thread] 'double player 9 versus dealer 2'. In both cases the expectation difference is small, albeit overall effect small as well. If appearing in any individual shoe, though, should increase the variance .  


*OBS = Odious Basic Strategy, strategy cards not available

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

If one is variance seeking, this idea is not so bad. However, I still say it is not kosher to deviate from basic strategy unless you're counting or using another form of advantage play.

If you want to increase variance you could simply use a betting system or just vary your randomly. I've said before that a good substitute for side bets is to force yourself to an anti-Martingale for so-many bets.

I have to throw in a disclaimer that lest people take this post out of context -- betting systems not only don't decrease the house edge, they don't even dent it. However, they can come in handy if your goal is something other than minimizing loss and variance.

That makes me think, when counting shoe games and the count gets pretty high 2 or 3 decks in, but you have too much heat to spread appropriately (Like, the pit is literally over your head) I've often been tempted to start a martingale to justify the bets. This would mean throwing the proper spreads out of the window, and you might end up putting more money on lower counts like:
TC+3 5 units => lose
TC+2 10 units =>win
TC+ 4 5 units again..
It's not optimal, but might be the only way to get more money out there on positive counts in certain situations.
Now I've never done it but I'm curious if anybody did some research on what it does to EV, VAR, ROR.

Quote: Wizard

If one is variance seeking, this idea is not so bad. However, I still say it is not kosher to deviate from basic strategy unless you're counting or using another form of advantage play.

thanks for replying and I'm glad to hear you don't think it's nuts, though I was having a lot of fun pretending you felt otherwise. Yeah, I see the disclaimer loud and clear.

Quote:

If you want to increase variance you could simply use a betting system or just vary your randomly. I've said before that a good substitute for side bets is to force yourself to an anti-Martingale for so-many bets.

Yeah, somebody needs to come up with side bets that don't have such killer HE and I could go in that direction

Quote:

I have to throw in a disclaimer that lest people take this post out of context -- betting systems not only don't decrease the house edge, they don't even dent it. However, they can come in handy if your goal is something other than minimizing loss and variance.

I like to think what I am doing is trading edge for variance - it is not to decrease the house edge but is the opposite, but just marginally I hope.

the experiment is currently underway. Will hold off posting till have more to go on.

Quote: odiousgambit

I like to think what I am doing is trading edge for variance

.... And you'll probably get more fun out of it. I like using the off plays to throw out some silly comments and strike up banter. Imagine the extra amusement if you get some well meaning ploppie, or even the dealer, trying to put you straight. There's nothing like saying 'I'm not playing to win: I'm playing for fun' to stir up a storm.

So we returned to the Greenbrier in WV for a few days, and this was my chance to try out my OBS [a deviation from BS, see upthread]. 

Casino management seems to have changed. Previously there was an emphasis on having very low minimums, but the table minimums have really increased. During the day there had always been $5 BJ available, now it is at least $25 at all times, not $10 as I had thought.  Well. Certainly for me this was going to mean few sessions and no possibility of tweaking Variance in any other way  - it was going to be flat-betting only. 

I couldn't 'not play' after all this build up, though I thought about it. My first session commences and I find they have decided to change from 8 decks to 4. Since I had come up with my altered BS figuring on 8 deck, I had to hope the change was favorable or neutral. I decided that I'd sit for two shoes. Wouldn't you know it, this session was the kind that makes you hate BJ. The only decisions that I had to make was player 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 against whatever, for all but a few hands. Not once was there any chance to deviate from BS. I never got a BJ , meanwhile the woman at first base keeps getting them - I should have counted them, I'd estimate at least 6. Miraculously I only lost $135 after tip. 

Then it was off to my beloved Craps, where the minimum was now $15, still 3x4x5x. I went full free odds on it and this cost me a similar amount; but the entertainment value made it more worth it. 

The next day I plunked myself down at an empty BJ table for another go. My luck had changed. My first shoe I was getting BJs once in a while and a few chances at OBS, some of which paid off and I was a bit ahead. The second shoe offered a lot of splitting chances. For my final hand I get 8,8 versus dealer 5; I split and get 8,8 again on each and split again, gettin 8,8 at least once more and splitting again, if I remember right*. At least 2 wound up being 14s, one an 18 I think, but one was soft 19, and I doubled that as per OBS. I've now got 8 bets out against dealer 5 and sure enough he turns over a face card and then deals himself another one. Dealer busts and it's +200 on that one hand. I think it was the end of the shoe, but I was excited enough to just color up immediately in any case ... +$440 after tip. 

I played no more BJ and went on to lose pretty heavily at Craps even though I changed to $50 max for free odds; it's a mean table there at the G. I have beat it there only a few times for much less than I have lost. So I didn't head back home with any Greenbrier money overall but was happy to be able to say all the gambling was fun ... including the Blackjack for once!!


* I'm only sure about having 8 bets out there in the end, and the double down bet

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

Quote: odiousgambit

...For my final hand I get 8,8 versus dealer 5; I split and get 8,8 again on each and split again, gettin 8,8 at least once more and splitting again, if I remember right*. At least 2 wound up being 14s, one an 18 I think, but one was soft 19, and I doubled that as per OBS. I've now got 8 bets out against dealer 5 and sure enough he turns over a face card and then deals himself another one. Dealer busts and it's +200 on that one hand. I think it was the end of the shoe, but I was excited enough to just color up immediately in any case ... +$440 after tip. 

These are the s**t or bust hands that I JUST LOVE. Even if they go bad, you get the big adrenaline rush that makes it worthwhile. They sure do tend to be the last hand of a session, one way or another.
That some of your multitude of hands ended up being rubbish hard hands must have added to the suspense.

Interesting that you found losing on Craps more entertaining than more or less breaking even on BJ.

Great trip report.