odds with rakeback

Hi, I've got an opportunity to play blackjack with 10% cashback if I lose over $500, however the maximum bet is $200 with a maximum of 7 boxes. It seems logical for the best way to approach this to be to put 7 boxes with the table maximum and leave the table if I'm up or as soon as I reached the $500 minus.

I wanted to ask anybody for the odds on this, what are the odds of ending up minus more than 500$ if I play correct basic strategy and house edge being 0.7% with their rules ? What should be the average expected gain from this ?

Thank you for any comments.

Welcome to the forum.
That sounds a great opportunity, especially if it applies multiple times. Worth at least 5% depending on what limits apply.
Loss rebates are among the best bonuses available but are so counter intuitive that casinos underestimate the cost and some players underestimate the value. See my blog post here where I touch on how to exploit them, and a few links out.
Beware that some casinos screw you over if you take their money. Caveat emptor.

Quote: stuungar96

Hi, I've got an opportunity to play blackjack with 10% cashback if I lose over $500, however the maximum bet is $200 with a maximum of 7 boxes. It seems logical for the best way to approach this to be to put 7 boxes with the table maximum and leave the table if I'm up or as soon as I reached the $500 minus.

I wanted to ask anybody for the odds on this, what are the odds of ending up minus more than 500$ if I play correct basic strategy and house edge being 0.7% with their rules ? What should be the average expected gain from this ?

Thank you for any comments.

Kind of like what what OnceDear said.....

Is this an on line casino or brick and mortar?
Is this a casino you will return to regardless of the result?
Are you an advantage player, or just came across this one opportunity and it piqued your interest?
Will you be accumulating 'comps' during this play, and if so, at what rate?
If you play today and win $500, can you start fresh again tomorrow, or do they remember your $500 win?

My guess is your +EV doing it once is around $35.

Quote: SOOPOO

Kind of like what what OnceDear said.....
...
My guess is your +EV doing it once is around $35.

It depends on the start and end thresholds.
If its for losses up to 500, then the EV is just shy of 50... Call it 35.
But if its for 10% of any loss beyond 500, then it's potentially HUGE.
Repeatability is what you need though to fade the massive variance.
Aspire to get your action in as big bets, as few as possible, so that you are not repeatedly cycling the same money through the house edge.

Quote: stuungar96

Hi, I've got an opportunity to play blackjack with 10% cashback if I lose over $500, however the maximum bet is $200 with a maximum of 7 boxes. It seems logical for the best way to approach this to be to put 7 boxes with the table maximum and leave the table if I'm up or as soon as I reached the $500 minus.

I wanted to ask anybody for the odds on this, what are the odds of ending up minus more than 500$ if I play correct basic strategy and house edge being 0.7% with their rules ? What should be the average expected gain from this ?

More details are needed to calculate it.

Must we understand that you play until one of two results appears: either you are up (by how much?) or you are down 500, and you want the probability of the second?

Furthermore, the rules (3-2 bj? How many decks? Splits? Surrenders?etc.) affect the probability