Expected Value vs Expected Return

When the Wizard discusses games like video poker, he compares games using Expected Return. For example, a video poker game may have a return of 98.98%

When the Wizard says a player's expected value for certain Blackjack rules is -0.51%, does the equate to a return of 99.49%?

Expected return = 1 + Expected value.

Usually you refer to expected return in machine games, and expected value in table games. It seems silly, but I'm just trying to be consistent with the way everybody else does it.

Quote: Wizard

Expected return = 1 + Expected value.

Usually you refer to expected return in machine games, and expected value in table games. It seems silly, but I'm just trying to be consistent with the way everybody else does it.

Not presuming I know more than the Wizard about calculating odds, but I'm used to a different definition of "return," more in the classic business sense, like in "investment return," "rate of return," etc.

In that sense, wouldn't return be (Q1 - Q0) / Q0? E.g., I invested in MGM at $3 in Spring 09, cashed out at $8 that summer, a return of (8 - 3) / 3 = 167% (forgetting about annualization, time value, etc.).

Or, if you walk in with $100 and walk out with $95, your "return" is (95 - 100) / 100 = minus-5%.

I guess statistical returns are a different animal than a financial return or something?

Quote: Wizard

Expected return = 1 + Expected value.

Usually you refer to expected return in machine games, and expected value in table games. It seems silly, but I'm just trying to be consistent with the way everybody else does it.

It has to do with the "N-to-1" vs. "N-for-1" issue. Slot games payouts are universally N-for-1 - the lowest award on any paytable is 0, which is a loss, so 1 represents a push (e.g. Jacks or Better). The "expected return" of a game, a.k.a. the payback percentage or the return-to-player (RTP) percentage, is the paytable times the probability distribution. That's going to be a number shy of 1.0, but can never be negative (since none of the pay values are negative).

Contrast with table game payouts. Those are usually N-to-1, so the lowest award on any paytable is -1 (a loss). When you take a table game paytable (even if it's just +1 and -1 for an even-money game like the passline) and multiply by the probability distribution, you get a number just shy of 0.0. So because the payout values are stated as -1 from how they'd be stated in slot games, so is the overall return percentage.

I thought EV was just something to measure your session by. If a game has an EV of, oh, minus-1% and you return minus-2%, then your "luck" was a little worse than expected. However EV is measured - whether it's N-to1 or N-for-1 - didn't really make a difference?

Thanks for the clarification!