tomchina123
tomchina123
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 282
July 4th, 2019 at 11:13:19 PM permalink
hope my english is ok to present my confusion.
the scene is like this:
i tracked a clump: 1 deck from a 6-decks game. it is counted as -8===8 more high cards in this deck, i cannot remember how many 10s or Aces to make this -8..
first hand: i got 10,2,4, dealer's 7. now count in this deck needs to -7. or we need to say the count is +7. (the tracking is different from counting, don't criticize my english, if you don't understand it, it is that you don't understand the difference between tracking and counting).
it is a big bet, shall i hit or stand?
i have my answers. but it is too mind-twisted.
anytime, i met this kind of hand, 14,15, 16...dealer's 7--A, i got my headache.
any writers or books will cover this kind of thing in depth? except Snyder, Michael R. Hall, the theory of blackjack(book name).
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 99
  • Posts: 14231
July 5th, 2019 at 7:36:26 AM permalink
Just me, no expertise.

I think you absolutely must stand on this type hand.

Even though the down card may be more likely than usual (because you're tracking a clump) to be a 10-A, there are still more values in the deck (8 out of 13) that will force the dealer to hit.

5 of those (5-9) will cause the dealer to bust on a 10-card, which is ALSO more likely than usual, due to the clumping. The other 3 values will also beat you (2-4) when hit with a 10-card, but they are less likely than usual right now, too.

You must also consider that dealer will not necessarily have a 17 or above hand after 3 cards, either. 2 smalls will MAKE them take a 4th card, where you have the option NOT to take a more likely than not bust card, and with the clump, if things get that far, they're even MORE likely to bust on a 4th card than usual.
Last edited by: beachbumbabs on Jul 5, 2019
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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