billryan
billryan 
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smoothgrh
June 19th, 2019 at 10:07:32 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

The other aspect to remember is that hitting on 16 means you will lose less in the long run, not win in the long run.

When you're in a situation of having to hit 16, you will lose most of the time. If you choose to stand on that 16, you will lose even more.



That is true of a two card 16. A three card 16 is the opposite.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Kellynbnf
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smoothgrh
June 19th, 2019 at 11:16:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

That is true of a two card 16. A three card 16 is the opposite.



That multi-card rule applies only against a dealer 10. If the dealer is showing 7, 8, 9, or A, hitting is always better than standing (unless you know the count and the index is high enough to warrant standing).
gordonm888
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smoothgrh
June 19th, 2019 at 2:29:19 PM permalink
However, even when you don't bust a 16 vs 10, you will still lose when you draw an Ace, 2 or 3 if the dealer's downcard is a Ten, giving dealer 20.

You have to carefully work out the math for every scenario and probabilistically weigh the frequency of the scenarios. When you do that, it turns out to be slightly better to hit 16 vs 10, and significantly better to hit 16 vs 7.

Whether you Hit or Stand 16v10 there will be a lot of blood on the floor and most of it will be yours.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
kuroshivo
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June 19th, 2019 at 3:25:49 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

You have to carefully work out the math for every scenario and probabilistically weigh the frequency of the scenarios. When you do that, it turns out to be slightly better to hit 16 vs 10, and significantly better to hit 16 vs 7.



Keep in mind that the decision of hitting or not 16 vs 10 also depends on the composition of the remaining deck.
For infinite cards, it is slightly better to hit. But there might be other scenarios where it is not.

And the adverb "slightly" means that there is really a tiny difference on the expected value. Although by running a large number of statistical runs one can make it bigger than the standard deviation of the ev, for practical purposes it is tiny enough to make the decision of whether to hit or not, "almost" equal.
bobbartop
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June 19th, 2019 at 7:15:30 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I believe you are better off standing on any three card hard 16.



A 6 is a high card. Typical counts will not serve justice to the question of hitting or standing on 16 v T, because they treat 6s as low cards. A better rule for this situation is to stand if there are more 6s remaining than 5s. If no 5s or 6s have been exposed it's probably better to stand, 6s are that strong.

In Griffin's Theory of Blackjack, page 74, "effects of removal", he assigns 6s positive 1.65 whereas 9s are +.55 and Tens are +1.12. All other cards are "low" cards, including the 7 and 8.

I'd have to think about it a bit but I'm guessing there are a few 3-card hard 16s that should be hit against a Dealer Ten. 664, for example. Not only are there 5s remaining but two 6s are gone also.

In the hand of 78A, a close stand is called for and ALL the 5s and 6s are still out. Another example of how strong the 6 is.

If someone is not familiar with Sklansky's "Key Card Concept", I'll try to do it justice, briefly.

He says to figure a specific card is NEXT off the deck. Ask yourself what the play would be. Then, figure that same card is the Dealer's hole card, and again ask yourself what the play would be. If the answer is the same in both situations, it is a "Key Card".

In 16 v. Ten, there is only one key card, a 6, not a 4 or a 5, only a 6.

Another key card example, and there are many, would be in 15 v 9. Only the 7 fits the bill. In the same Griffin tables I mentioned, a 7 is ranked +1.92, whereas a Ten is only +1.03. Most counts ignore or downgrade 7s, but for the situation of 15 v 9, the 7 is the most important card in the deck, by far.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
bobbartop
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June 19th, 2019 at 7:22:38 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

However, even when you don't bust a 16 vs 10, you will still lose when you draw an Ace, 2 or 3 if the dealer's downcard is a Ten, giving dealer 20.

You have to carefully work out the math for every scenario and probabilistically weigh the frequency of the scenarios. When you do that, it turns out to be slightly better to hit 16 vs 10, and significantly better to hit 16 vs 7.

Whether you Hit or Stand 16v10 there will be a lot of blood on the floor and most of it will be yours.




Side note, a reason to ALWAYS stand on 16 v Ten, is because ploppies do it. And if you stand on 16 v T in a negative deck/shoe, hopefully your bet will be smaller. Cheap camouflage.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
bobbartop
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June 19th, 2019 at 10:27:51 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop


I'd have to think about it a bit but I'm guessing there are a few 3-card hard 16s that should be hit against a Dealer Ten. 664, for example. Not only are there 5s remaining but two 6s are gone also.




When I first replied to this, I guess I wasn't thinking too clearly. There are four, exactly. 664, 763, 862, 96A. And each has a 6, none have a 5.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
charliepatrick
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June 20th, 2019 at 7:52:35 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

...You have to carefully work out the math for every scenario...

If you're happy to work on infinite deck (and then adjust for finite decks later) then consider when the dealer draws their card immediately after you (i.e. UK rules) then you can create a spreadsheet with all the cards that could be waiting in the shoe.

(7-T) If the next card is 7 8 9 or 10 it doesn't matter what you do - you're destined to lose.
(A) A good decision whatever happens, if you stood you would lose to a BJ.
(6) If you stood you had a good chance to win, but hitting is a loss.
(2-3) It depends (e.g. if the next card is a 7 or 8 then you got it right, if it's a 10 you got it wrong).
(4-5) The time it does matter is if the next two cards were both low, hitting was correct. If it was a low card and a big card (where the dealer busts) then it did't matter, you were destined to win.

If you go through all these then it's just better to hit 16 vs 10. However with US rules you have a slightly better chance of drawing an Ace, since you know the Dealer's card isn't one.
gordonm888
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charliepatrickbobbartop
June 20th, 2019 at 1:21:25 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

A 6 is a high card. Typical counts will not serve justice to the question of hitting or standing on 16 v T, because they treat 6s as low cards. A better rule for this situation is to stand if there are more 6s remaining than 5s. If no 5s or 6s have been exposed it's probably better to stand, 6s are that strong.

In Griffin's Theory of Blackjack, page 74, "effects of removal", he assigns 6s positive 1.65 whereas 9s are +.55 and Tens are +1.12. All other cards are "low" cards, including the 7 and 8.

I'd have to think about it a bit but I'm guessing there are a few 3-card hard 16s that should be hit against a Dealer Ten. 664, for example. Not only are there 5s remaining but two 6s are gone also.

In the hand of 78A, a close stand is called for and ALL the 5s and 6s are still out. Another example of how strong the 6 is.

If someone is not familiar with Sklansky's "Key Card Concept", I'll try to do it justice, briefly.

He says to figure a specific card is NEXT off the deck. Ask yourself what the play would be. Then, figure that same card is the Dealer's hole card, and again ask yourself what the play would be. If the answer is the same in both situations, it is a "Key Card".

In 16 v. Ten, there is only one key card, a 6, not a 4 or a 5, only a 6.

Another key card example, and there are many, would be in 15 v 9. Only the 7 fits the bill. In the same Griffin tables I mentioned, a 7 is ranked +1.92, whereas a Ten is only +1.03. Most counts ignore or downgrade 7s, but for the situation of 15 v 9, the 7 is the most important card in the deck, by far.



Here's an example of what Bobbartop is talking about. These are the EORs for 16vT, 8decks. I had done these original calculations and prepared this image -and many others like it for other close-call BJ hands - for a possible WOO article, but then discovered that Peter Griffin had beat me to the calculations (on single deck blackjack) in his 1988 book.

As you can see, any counting system that lumps in sixes and fives cannot be efficient at providing guidance on when to hit vs stand on 16vT.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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June 20th, 2019 at 3:37:20 PM permalink
Here's an alternative graphical image of the Effect of Removal on the Hit/Stand decision for 16 vs Ten, 8 decks. I'm just playing around, trying for an impactful graphical image.

So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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