blackjack coupon paying 2-1 on all suited blackjacks even on pushes

i have this coupon but its good up to $100, so i didnt use it last night on a $10 bet, and because of not using it i got paid $5 less. i dont know how often ill play because ive been trying to avoid anything but poker to protect my roll. at least til it gets over 25k. so most of my bets were a lot less than $100, though a very few got that high. should i find someone else in reno who can use it? and will offer me a part of the extra money he makes? i sure arent going to flat bet $100 throughout high negative counts or even counts waiting for a chance to use it, i could lose a ton that way even if plus ev. i just play my normal bj game.

at least i won a few hundred just playing small, raising the bets at times on decent counts, etc.

i also havent been back to the place where they paid me 3-2 and the others at the table only 6-5 because i figured they might not do it again, nor have i been in the area and didnt want to waste money on uber and because im trying to stick to poker to avoid big variance. but i am still shocked no one else at my table bitched about it even noticed or cared. this was on a shoe 6 deck game and they recently got rid of shoes paying 3-2 but remembered me from the past and i insisted on a 3-2 shoe. but ive been luckier lately not playing shoes so i havent asked since.

im still so used to shoes i keep forgetting i cant double after split on single and double decks im used to doubling any 2, splitting and doubling anything because i played 6 decks in other cities not reno most of my life

If the shift key is broken on the device you're using, how are you entering the $ and ? characters?

Quote: sabre

If the shift key is broken on the device you're using, how are you entering the $ and ? characters?

that was an old laptop many years ago before i got this one

be nice if someone would tell me what this coupon might be worth to a much higher stakes BJ player than me here in reno. instead of just this one troll responding. i was told it could also be used on bets bigger than $100 for the first $100 of the bet. as far as i know reno has no good card counters ive never seen one when i try to watch others play.

Not trying to sound rude, but there are tons and tons of BJ threads about coupons, and I think a link to a few different articles on a few different sites explaining the different types of coupons and how to maximize their EV. Heck, I think even the Wizard has answered these in the FAQ's or Ask the Wizard or something. So again, not trying to be rude, but the answers are out there if you put in a bit of effort with the site's search functionality.

Quote: sevencard2003

be nice if someone would tell me what this coupon might be worth to a much higher stakes BJ player than me here in reno. instead of just this one troll responding. i was told it could also be used on bets bigger than $100 for the first $100 of the bet. as far as i know reno has no good card counters ive never seen one when i try to watch others play.

And your OP doesn’t really explain what the coupon is. One time use? Good for whole session? What’s time limit?

I calculate that 2:1 on suited BJ adds .6% to the base game. Suited BJ versus dealer BJ is so uncommon that 2:1 versus push doesn't change the rounded figure.

Assuming it's one time use the actual value depends on the player. If it has no expiration and the player was going to flat bet $100 BJ for a very extended period of time anyway I guess you could say it's worth over $50.

If someone's playing just to use the coupon it's worth .6% - the house edge over an average span of 84 hands.

Apologies if I miscalculated.

[Edit: I did.]

Very quick calculation (i.e. rough estimate only)
Pr (BJ) = P(A) then P(X) or P(X) then P(A) = (1/13 * 4/13)+(4/13 * 1/13) = 8/169 = 4.73% (it's slightrly higher for finite decks)
Pr dealer BJ is about the same, so Pr winning = 4.73 * (1-4.73%) = 4.51% (it's slightly higher as once you've got a BJ, then dealer's chance is less)
Pr suited win is 1/4 of this = 1.13% (so actual value is slightly bigger than this)
You win an extra 1/2 unit so effect of HE = 1.13%/2 = 0.56%
Thus say it was .6% then I guess for some games this might overcome the base game HE.

Assuming it can be played until you hit, it's worth close to $200 - $150 - the house edge. Or about $50 minus the house edge. Should take about 80 hands to hit 1/(0.25 x 0.05). And once every 400 hands it would be worth $200. Expect it to take over an hour to hit, so I would only pay about $10 for it.

well i just wondering if anyone in reno could use it. i had some bad luck tonight, and of course never got a chance to use the coupon. im kind of regretting not using it to get $5 more the other day, but i figured eventually id get it on a bigger bet. but now that im down to 17,500 on a $20k roll, maybe i better double down on not playing anything else but poker, and a few vultureable machines. slots, not vp. i lost about $900 tonight during some good counts with a little bit bigger bets out.

i just wanted to know how much id likely lose if i just flat bet for 100 hands, figuring id hit it once by the time i got dealt 100 hands. but is this really a wise decision? i wonder how much i might lose waiting and if someone did do this, should they be constantly moving table to table anytime the running count hits minus 2? that would get annoying. the coupon is good til dec 2019 and doesnt have to be produced until u get a winner.

Jumping from a $10 bet to a $100 bet to take advantage of a one time coupon is foolish.
Play on your terms.

If I had a coupon like this, I would bet $100 per hand until it hit. Running count is usually pretty meaningless, have to divide that by the number of decks remaining. I would only count aces -- since the benefit of 20s and dealer busts that come with hi-lo counts don't mean anything with this coupon. I would walk away anytime the true count for aces went below zero by the halfway point. That would mean if there are three decks left and I've already seen 13 aces it's time to leave. The expected loss for 100 hands would be house edge x 100 x $100 or about $50 to $66 depending on rules. There is about a 70% chance of getting a suited blackjack within 100 hands.

and if u were in reno, and was in a game with 1 or 2 decks how would u do it? i would think the house edge on 100 hands would be less?

what im worrying about is ill run bad and maybe lose $1000-2000 waiting to hit it. how likely is that? i suppose its also possible i could win $1000 waiting

The effect of number of decks is very low (the coupon is worth 1 deck .58%, many .56% ) so it's best to look at the HE of the base game. Technically only play if the value of the coupon exceeds the base HE. The counting Aces idea seems practical.

Quote: charliepatrick

The effect of number of decks is very low (the coupon is worth 1 deck .58%, many .56% ) so it's best to look at the HE of the base game. Technically only play if the value of the coupon exceeds the base HE. The counting Aces idea seems practical.

i just cant bring myself to flat bet so much, at least not til i add a few thousand to my roll to get back to what i came to reno with, and the $2800 i spent to move into an apartment for one month and a months deposit. so i played my normal game in the pit once the poker game broke at 3am. $5 minimum single deck, not bad since u cant find this most cities around the country. either they have higher minimums, or they wont pay 3-2 like they do in reno. was betting $5 on negative and neutral counts, and sometimes but not always 2 spots of $10 or so on the first hand of the new shoe. most i even bet was 2 spots of $50 instead of higher like i often do, luckily it didnt lose. but i never got a suited bj except on a $5 bet and i sure wasnt using it then. i might never get to use it. a professional counter who did it as his ONLY income who dont play poker for his living like i do would get in at least 1000 hands per day unlike me, so he would always have opportunities to use it without it taking weeks.

i think im way better off this way than losing money flat betting on neutral or negative counts of $50-100. i could lose $1500, and thats way too much to lose until i get back to $25,000

Make a plan and stick to it. If you are going to be distracted by every promo a casino tosses your way, you will end up chasing your tail.
You are a Tiger. Mangia.

Quote: sevencard2003

<snip>the coupon is good til dec 2019 and doesnt have to be produced until u get a winner.

sevencard2003,

Can you wait to see if the dealer has a BJ as well, THEN produce the coupon and receive a 2:1 payout?

Dog Hand

Quote: billryan

Make a plan and stick to it....{else}...you will end up chasing your tail...

This coupon mathematically gives you a fair Blackjack game (rather than a -ve HE). Playing (say) $10/hand it will evetually earn you $5 extra. If you're lucky It will pay out quickly else you'll just be playing the game (and not getting any Blacjkacks, so probably losing a bit). Thus the best scenario is you win $5 extra and the worst is you have a long streak without Blackjacks.

So from what you said, unless you were going to play the game in any case (i.e. accept there's a House Edge, you were counting, just trying to earn points, etc.) then it seems best to ignore it.

Quote: DogHand

sevencard2003,

Can you wait to see if the dealer has a BJ as well, THEN produce the coupon and receive a 2:1 payout?

Dog Hand

yes. but if u do this, it might take weeks to get a chance to use it when u have a much higher than normal sized bet out there, plus the dealer have a blackjack same time as your suited blackjack. of course a high enough stakes guy who does nothing but play blackjack 50 hours a week wouldnt wait nearly as long.

this is why im surprised others in reno who play regularly here wouldnt be interested.

i dont think ill ever get a chance to use this damned coupon. i finally got another suited BJ, but with a $5 bet. at least i won over $200 tonight at BJ. if i play the game properly and avoid raising my bet until the count is good enough most all of my bets will be $5 or $10 and ill have to go thru about 2500 hands before i finally have a $60-100 hand for my coupon. good news is i got a full year. if someone could somehow get a huge supply of these coupons and played high stakes regularly, i would think theyd make a nice amount of money in the long run using these coupons unless im missing something.

Quote: sevencard2003

i just cant bring myself to flat bet so much, at least not til i add a few thousand to my roll to get back to what i came to reno with, and the $2800 i spent to move into an apartment for one month and a months deposit.

awwwww, i was wondering why i didn't see you scummin' around the MGM detroit 1/2NL anymore... did you get rivered hard several times, in succession?

Quote: loldongs

awwwww, i was wondering why i didn't see you scummin' around the MGM detroit 1/2NL anymore... did you get rivered hard several times, in succession?

Deleted.

NVM. I don't care.