Is A-5 a viable break even strategy under these rules?

I'll be staying at a casino where the lowest house edge BJ has the following rules: 2 decks, H17, DOA, DAS, no surrender. I don't know for sure whether you can RSA, but I suspect not. The HA with basic strategy is ~0.46%. I use basic strategy for all playing decisions. I enjoy playing BJ and psychologically I find it infinitely more fun if I know I'm playing a break even game rather than slowly bleeding away cash. My question is: assuming reasonable penetration, can I get to a break even game using the Wizard's A-5 count? Since it's a double-deck game, I doubt I can get away with more than a 1-8 or maybe 1-10 spread.

I know that, at best, A-5 gives a tiny player advantage under more favorable rules (surrender, S17, etc). That said, all I want is to get to break even.

Note: I have no desire or ability to learn a more complicated count.

Quote: TinMan

I know that, at best, A-5 gives a tiny player advantage under more favorable rules (surrender, S17, etc). That said, all I want is to get to break even.

more info here on the A-5 count
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/17/

I simulated with your given rules (spread: 1-8) and results showed
(for 1000 round sessions and 2 deck)
house edge: -0.08%
sd: 3.13
avg bet(unit): 1.79

(for 1000 round sessions and 4 deck)
house edge: 0.19%
sd: 4.06
avg bet(unit): 2.33

looks like fun
this was done quickly
(not using cvcx software)
Sally

Quote: TinMan

I'll be staying at a casino where the lowest house edge BJ has the following rules: 2 decks, H17, DOA, DAS, no surrender. I don't know for sure whether you can RSA, but I suspect not. The HA with basic strategy is ~0.46%. I use basic strategy for all playing decisions. I enjoy playing BJ and psychologically I find it infinitely more fun if I know I'm playing a break even game rather than slowly bleeding away cash. My question is: assuming reasonable penetration, can I get to a break even game using the Wizard's A-5 count? Since it's a double-deck game, I doubt I can get away with more than a 1-8 or maybe 1-10 spread.

I know that, at best, A-5 gives a tiny player advantage under more favorable rules (surrender, S17, etc). That said, all I want is to get to break even.

Note: I have no desire or ability to learn a more complicated count.

For a day or a weekend, luck is the biggest factor. You can but her basic strategy and still win or play perfect with counting and lose. Way too small of a sample size to make much of a difference.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

For a day or a weekend, luck is the biggest factor. You can but her basic strategy and still win or play perfect with counting and lose. Way too small of a sample size to make much of a difference.


ZCore13

And yet, the rational decision of A-5 play vs BS play (of those are the only two options) is not affected by the fact that this particular session is a short one. EV is still EV and std is std and a comparison can be made.

Quote: mustangsally

more info here on the A-5 count
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/17/

I simulated with your given rules (spread: 1-8) and results showed
(for 1000 round sessions and 2 deck)
house edge: -0.08%
sd: 3.13
avg bet(unit): 1.79

...snip...
Sally

I would guess, with Sally's calculation above, that you can't get much closer to even. So yeah, seems wise to use A-5 if they let you spread that much.

Keep in mind that many people consider most casino DD games to be counter traps, used to identify and toss out counters. No idea if that's true at your particular destination.

Thank you, Mustangsally! This is very helpful and much appreciated.

To echo what one of the other posters said, I know that whether I win or lose over the 3 days I'll be gambling is largely a matter of luck due to the small sample size. But knowing that I'm getting extremely close to a fair bet is worth a lot to me on its own. And adding in any comps I get back make this a no brainer.

TinMan,

A few things:

1) I've posted about the A-5 counts in a lot of other blackjack threads. Please search those for a better explanation.
2) A-5 doesn't teach you anything about Risk of Ruin (RoR) and Bankroll Management.

When I say bankroll management, I don't mean "win goals" and "stop losses." I'm referring to players that play with real advantages and in accordance to the math understand the variance of the game and therefor must have a specific bankroll to get their RoR to a reasonable percent.

If you don't understand RoR then you will never have a winning game, regardless of the count... but also, I would not advise using the A-5 count to actually make any kind of real money. Short term results very, but in the long run, one or two playing mistakes will wipe out any TINY advantage this could would yield you per hour. So if you're going to try to count, learn about RoR and BM, then you're better off just learning a simple counting system like Hi/Low and actually making a bang for your buck.

Short Answer: You won't beat that game with A-5 count. If you want to use it "for fun" and to perhaps lessen the house edge a bit (if done correctly) then by all means have a ball. If you want to make money, you must learn a real counting system and all of the other aspects of counting that go along with it (Perfect Basic Strategy - for all types of rule variations, index plays, bet spreads, bankroll management, risk of ruin, penetration, cover, heat, wonging, scavenger plays, promotions, rat holing, etc, etc, etc). None of these are "tough" on their own, or tough to learn... it's about the beautiful symphony of merging them all together to get a winning blackjack game.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: unJon

... decision of A-5 play vs BS play ...

Just being picky, but A-5 determines your bet. Play is still BS. The decision is to use A-5 with BS.