Pct of Skilled BJ players
ps - I'm not looking for "opinions" - I've got plenty of those :)
Thank you
To answer your question: none that I could find in a simple web search.
So - loosen it up for idiots who have no idea how to play and lose their bankroll quick and get off the game? And, tighten it up for a more knowledgable player who will theoretically lose more as with the knowledge will play longer sessions.
Sounds like a great idea. Keep up the good work!
Quote: Jmarch79Another bean counter trying to tighten up the comps.
To answer your question: none that I could find in a simple web search.
Hey, Jmarch, that was about as rude a greeting as anyone has ever gotten here. Warning. A variety of people use this site and are regulars, including many gaming executives and employees. Just because there are also a large percentage of skilled players using it, you do not have the right to disparage them. Show some class.
Little Joe,
Welcome to the forum! My apologies for the first response you got.
There are several people who might have some information for you, though I'm personally not aware of any studies or surveys specific to that. I attended a gaming protection seminar at G2E in 2013, and (I think I'm recalling the discussion, looking at old notes) Henry Tamborlin's figure in costing out protection measures was less than 1% of gamblers are Advantage Players, and about 3% used or played consistent basic strategy.
Of those, the vast majority concentrated on Blackjack due to the availability of systems published and the media attention. I don't have an estimate of that majority, just the characterization.
Eliot Jacobson disagreed slightly, saying AP was closer to but not likely over 2% of players, and strategy players were likely under but close to 5%. There was general agreement on the panel, which Mike Shackleford moderated, that those numbers were probably accurate.
There was also acknowledgement that a fair number of those attempting to be Advantage Players, perhaps 80 to 90%, didn't have well-enough developed skills to make consistent money at it, and so were actually a profit-center to the casinos rather than a drain.
Shackleford added, in his Gambling 102 book, that "the late Peter Griffin...concluded that strategy mistakes result in the average player losing an extra 1.4% beyond the House Edge for basic strategy." Edited to add: this was after live one-way observation of 11,000 hands.
I would suggest you look at work by Dr. Eliot Jacobson (apheat), Stephen How (discount gaming), and of course Mike Shackleford (Wizard of odds and here) for more information. You might also Private Message Wizard here, and ask if he has some sources he can share.
I realize this is, in essence, more opinion, but these are industry leaders in gaming math and protection talking, so I hope it is of some value.
Edit. I've asked Wizard to take a look at my report to see if anything needs to be corrected, or can be added.
Quote: beachbumbabsHey, Jmarch, that was about as rude a greeting as anyone has ever gotten here. Warning. A variety of people use this site and are regulars, including many gaming executives and employees. Just because there are also a large percentage of skilled players using it, you do not have the right to disparage them. Show some class.
Didn't mean to come across so harsh. My apologies LittleJoe.
In my defense, my assumption was correct. It was for the purpose of tightening comps for skilled players (in LittleJoe's words).
LittleJoe
IMO, Eliot Jacobsen and Stephen Howe are not the right people to answer questions about what fraction of BJ people are ploppies. I don't have the impression that either of them have played lots of Blackjack at a wide range of casinos over the past, say, 5 years. Maybe they will be aware of a study (which is what the OP asked about) but that is a long shot. Eliot, in particular, made a living by insincerely trying to enflame the gaming industry against Advantage Players -but OP isn't asking about APs, he is asking about what fraction of BJ players play according to basic strategy. Babs, this is NOT about APs.
Who would have the motivation to do such a study? Certainly not APs or gaming mathematicians. It would be the people who operate casinos for a living - both gaming executives, and game security as well as pit bosses and the the people that pit bosses report to. A study would require:
- a methodology for characterizing which players are skilled vs unskilled
- a way of tracking and recording how many hours are spent playing blackjack by players who are skilled and unskilled (and presumably) how much they are wagering.
The people who would have those resources would also be the casino industry themselves - and analysis of financial information combined maybe with security information (and analysis of data from player ID cards) would be the way to do that.
So, if Babs wants to be the alpha stud of the forum and speak for everyone, she should refer the OP to those people in the forum who are casino employees - presumably above the level of dealers - to see whether any casinos have done any studies about what fraction of BJ players play basic strategy and what fraction are ploppies.
That doesn’t take any skill at all in my opinion. It takes a decent memory and a few hours of repetition. I mainly play at $25 minimum tables , sometimes higher , and in my estimation 90% of the people playing at my tables play basic strategy and play it for the most part correctly. Maybe a random error here or there on playing a soft hand or double/split plays. I never considered any of these people to be skilled just because they memorized a little grid.
Quote: gordonm888Another way to phrase the question is : What fraction of players are unskilled? (probably weighted for hours spent at table and bet size.)
IMO, Eliot Jacobsen and Stephen Howe are not the right people to answer questions about what fraction of BJ people are ploppies. I don't have the impression that either of them have played lots of Blackjack at a wide range of casinos over the past, say, 5 years. Maybe they will be aware of a study (which is what the OP asked about) but that is a long shot. Eliot, in particular, made a living by insincerely trying to enflame the gaming industry against Advantage Players -but OP isn't asking about APs, he is asking about what fraction of BJ players play according to basic strategy. Babs, this is NOT about APs.
Who would have the motivation to do such a study? Certainly not APs or gaming mathematicians. It would be the people who operate casinos for a living - both gaming executives, and game security as well as pit bosses and the the people that pit bosses report to. A study would require:
- a methodology for characterizing which players are skilled vs unskilled
- a way of tracking and recording how many hours are spent playing blackjack by players who are skilled and unskilled (and presumably) how much they are wagering.
The people who would have those resources would also be the casino industry themselves - and analysis of financial information combined maybe with security information (and analysis of data from player ID cards) would be the way to do that.
So, if Babs wants to be the alpha stud of the forum and speak for everyone, she should refer the OP to those people in the forum who are casino employees - presumably above the level of dealers - to see whether any casinos have done any studies about what fraction of BJ players play basic strategy and what fraction are ploppies.
I'm sure those folks would be a great resource. They have endless hours of video, where it would become apparent pretty quickly who knew OS and who didn't. So maybe some studies are out there from those records. Or maybe the OP has access to those records and can create his own study. Good thought on your part for him to check there.
I'm also sure I wasn't speaking for everyone as the alpha male. I was present for a Q&A among gaming experts primarily about BJ players and took notes, 5 years ago. I had a name from Wizard's book of an acknowledged BJ top expert, who made a BJ study on basic strategy and wrote a book about it. And acknowledged my info might be of limited use, although all those guys have written about it at some length. What in the world is your last paragraph on about?
Basic strategy is the cornerstone of good play. Knowing it is a starting point. Rigorously applying it seems beyond the ability of most players. I see other player’s urge to gamble trump applied basic strategy on a regular basis. In particular, I rarely see another player surrender a hand.
Poor bankroll management, applying betting “systems,” and flat out gambling are other characteristics that would remove a player from the “skilled” category. You can usually spot a player with one or more of these characteristics after watching them play only a few hands.
This is an -EV game. If I am betting more than table minimum I have a damn good reason to do so. If I see another player betting 5x minimum on the first hand of a new shoe, he could be providing cover for AP play or he could be your average ploppie. I play red chip tables. It is always the later.
So, to the OP, if a player only occasionally strays from betting table minimum and surrenders hands, that would probably put them in that “skilled” category you wish to identify. I have no data, but my opinion of what percentage of players are in that category is in line with other posts in this thread: a single-digit percentage, and a low number at that.
Quote: michael99000So “Skilled” means playing basic strategy ?
That doesn’t take any skill at all in my opinion. It takes a decent memory and a few hours of repetition. I mainly play at $25 minimum tables , sometimes higher , and in my estimation 90% of the people playing at my tables play basic strategy and play it for the most part correctly. Maybe a random error here or there on playing a soft hand or double/split plays. I never considered any of these people to be skilled just because they memorized a little grid.
'Most of the time' doesnt classiify as basic strategy.
Regarding the percentage for skilled basic strategy players, id say maybe 5% of blackjack players know 95% of basc strategy and 1% actually know full basic strategy. Regarding advantage play blackjack such as card counting, hole card play, and other techniques,, there are maybe 100 people in the world who can actually make money from the casinos through these techniques. Out of those 100 people, maybe 10 are actual threats to the casinos bottom line, but that doesnt mean theyll get away with it for long.
The reason it's so low is not because things like card counting are so difficult to do, but rather people lack the discpline and the bankroll to make it through the swings of this game along with the dedication and perseverance to go at it for long. Also many people just dont see blackjack as a lucrative opportunity with all the heat surrounding it and not having a high enough edge to make their time worth it so they go attack other profitable plays. This is the reason why I laugh at all these droned out casinos who waste millions upon millions trying to mitigate the blackjack AP problem whereas if they ran the game properly, they not only would not need to worry about these pesky blackjack APs, but they would double their profit.
I heard, but don't know for sure, there used to be a theory about fruit machines that the higher the payback the more money the casino made. Obviously this assumes the payback is less than 100%. I guess that is because they perceive better value (time vs money lost) and play more often. With tighter machines, people eventually get fed up losing and find something else to do.
I'm not sure how you can tell someone's skill level but a relatively simple test to see whether someone has knowledge of basic strategy and is whether they hit soft 18 vs 9. The problem with using things like hitting 12s vs 2 is some people do it because they also hit 12s vs 6.
Hypothetically suppose you had a promotion that your first suited Blackjack of the day paid 2 to 1 then for most people you'd still make money while they tried to get one, while for a skilled player you would be losing a bit. However if it brought in more players then it might still be worth doing. (Mathematically as this gives back about 0.57% vs HE 0.48%, a better idea might be your suit matches the dealer's upcard).
Quote: LittleJoeActually, I'm also advocating to loosen up comps for those who don't read this site....
I read the site, but I can stop if the price is right...
How in the world would there be a public study giving you this answer? You are the one who has all the data! Can't you go knock on someone's door down the hall?
Quote: LittleJoeHi - I am an analytics executive with one of the 3 top multi-property gaming companies. I would like to know if anyone is aware of any good statistics/studies on the percent of blackjack players who are "skilled". I know that is a difficult definition to nail down, but I would say it is someone who is able to follow basic strategy most of the time.
ps - I'm not looking for "opinions" - I've got plenty of those :)
Thank you
So many respondents on this thread have done a spectacularly poor job of reading and understanding the question that OP asked.
OP is an analytics executive. He probably has been given a task to evaluate the percent of BJ players who are "skilled," i.e., who are not "ploppies." He doesn't want opinions! Instead, he is looking for previous studies. Why? I presume because he wants to review how previous analysts have conducted those studies -there may be some good practices and good ideas he can learn from as he designs his own study methodology.
OP does not want to survey so-called experts on the WOV forum to learn their opinions about the percentage of skilled players who are sitting at the tables. He is in the field of analytics - he wants to use industry data to develop novel metrics that may provide insight into the business that employs him.
But who among us would have a survey like that?
The most likely place would be his current employer.
Quote: FinsRuleGordon, right.
But who among us would have a survey like that?
The most likely place would be his current employer.
I agree with what Gordon said. LittleJoe asked for studies, no question. I started by saying I had no firsthand knowledge of any. Stop reading there if you like. Same general answer for the rest of the posts.
The point of my giving names of people who HAVE looked at this, as professionals, was that if there was anyone outside his own company resources who knew of such studies (and I had presumed he looked internally before coming here), those are the guys to look at. They were all gaming math guys throwing around numbers. Math guys, in my experience, don't just pull numbers out of thin air when speaking as experts. They have research, sources, publications that back up their statements.
Not my thread, but I found the discussion of what is a skilled player (since the OP has not been able to define it himself) useful food for thought, as well as some of the feedback from skilled BJ players and their observations of their percentages. LJMMV, but it's a perspective he might find informative as well. Those are the guys who are out there "in the trenches", who have the skills to notice other skilled vs. unskilled players of all types.
And since his decisions and thresholds may directly affect a lot of people here in the near future, I would think it beneficial, even self-preserving, to make a case for definitions, and how costs of protection, and punitive labeling of "skilled" players in the field, are an overblown overreaction in the industry. Which several people did, directly or indirectly.
He's been here a couple times now. Why stifle the discussion if he's reading it?
Quote: beachbumbabsI agree with what Gordon said. LittleJoe asked for studies, no question. I started by saying I had no firsthand knowledge of any. Stop reading there if you like. Same general answer for the rest of the posts.
The point of my giving names of people who HAVE looked at this, as professionals, was that if there was anyone outside his own company resources who knew of such studies (and I had presumed he looked internally before coming here), those are the guys to look at. They were all gaming math guys throwing around numbers. Math guys, in my experience, don't just pull numbers out of thin air when speaking as experts. They have research, sources, publications that back up their statements.
Not my thread, but I found the discussion of what is a skilled player (since the OP has not been able to define it himself) useful food for thought, as well as some of the feedback from skilled BJ players and their observations of their percentages. LJMMV, but it's a perspective he might find informative as well. Those are the guys who are out there "in the trenches", who have the skills to notice other skilled vs. unskilled players of all types.
And since his decisions and thresholds may directly affect a lot of people here in the near future, I would think it beneficial, even self-preserving, to make a case for definitions, and how costs of protection, and punitive labeling of "skilled" players in the field, are an overblown overreaction in the industry. Which several people did, directly or indirectly.
He's been here a couple times now. Why stifle the discussion if he's reading it?
I would love a casino saying they spend more money stopping card counters and other APs so lets save money and not agressively pursue then
My experience is they have zero tolerance. If they spent $100 stopping someone from taking a nickel they would feel it was $100 well spent
Quote: LittleJoeActually, I'm also advocating to loosen up comps for those who don't read this site....
And yet you ask for our help 🤔
Quote: beachbumbabsI agree with what Gordon said. LittleJoe asked for studies, no question. I started by saying I had no firsthand knowledge of any. Stop reading there if you like. Same general answer for the rest of the posts.
The point of my giving names of people who HAVE looked at this, as professionals, was that if there was anyone outside his own company resources who knew of such studies (and I had presumed he looked internally before coming here), those are the guys to look at. They were all gaming math guys throwing around numbers. Math guys, in my experience, don't just pull numbers out of thin air when speaking as experts. They have research, sources, publications that back up their statements.
Not my thread, but I found the discussion of what is a skilled player (since the OP has not been able to define it himself) useful food for thought, as well as some of the feedback from skilled BJ players and their observations of their percentages. LJMMV, but it's a perspective he might find informative as well. Those are the guys who are out there "in the trenches", who have the skills to notice other skilled vs. unskilled players of all types.
And since his decisions and thresholds may directly affect a lot of people here in the near future, I would think it beneficial, even self-preserving, to make a case for definitions, and how costs of protection, and punitive labeling of "skilled" players in the field, are an overblown overreaction in the industry. Which several people did, directly or indirectly.
He's been here a couple times now. Why stifle the discussion if he's reading it?
Fair enough. And several good points made - it has been an interesting thread, and OP has come back and continued posting. And, technically, surveying experts is actually one option for how to create data ( think Rotten Tomatos) but for most analytics geeks it is too subjective and not preferred.
Wouldn’t a skills analysis have to be done on a case by case basis?
Answer to your question: About 5% of players are able to follow basic strategy "most" of the time. Pending your definition of "most of the time" maybe less. I don't think I even see "good" basic strategy players ever play A-7 correctly on the crappy H17 tables.Quote: LittleJoeHi - I am an analytics executive with one of the 3 top multi-property gaming companies. I would like to know if anyone is aware of any good statistics/studies on the percent of blackjack players who are "skilled". I know that is a difficult definition to nail down, but I would say it is someone who is able to follow basic strategy most of the time.
ps - I'm not looking for "opinions" - I've got plenty of those :)
Thank you
Bonus Knowledge: Less than 1% of the blackjack population actually know basic strategy 100%.
Real Bonus Knowledge: Less than .5% of the blackjack population actually even attempt to or successfully count cards.
You should take this to your company bonus knowledge: Less than .1% of the blackjack population SUCCESSFULLY count cards. You literally shouldn't care unless their top bet is over $300. You should comp everyone to continuously keep traffic and action... You are not a gambling facility to your shareholders; you are a business. All you do is process money transfers back and forth and take a fee. You want as many transactions as humanly possible for the highest profits possible. Taking comps away from ANYONE limits your transactions, hurts your image, and will more amplified reduce your foot traffic than any casino has realized in 20 years.
The little BJ I play these days is at The Long Horn where you have many surprisingly good players grinding out free meals at $5 a hand. To me, that speaks volumes about low stake BJ opportunities in Vegas.
You would probably find a higher percentage in Las Vegas or maybe Atlantic City with a higher density of casinos, but 90% of casinos in the U.S. are not in these areas.
ZCore13
Stand on Hard 17 or higher
Hit 12-16 vs 7-A
Stand on 13-16 vs 2-6
Hit 12 vs 2,3 and Stand 12 vs 4-6
Double 11 vs 2-10
Double 10 vs 2-9
Never stand on Soft 17 (and Double vs 3-6)
Always split 8s and Aces
Never split 5s and 10s
Always split 9-9 pair vs 2-6, Never split 9-9 pair vs 10, A
Always split 7-7 pair vs 2-6, Never split 7-7 pair vs 9- A
Never split 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 or 6-6 vs 8-A
Those rules get you reasonably close. Some players are shaky on the infrequent hands (double A-2 or A-7 vs what? and split 3-3 vs 3?, etc) and also on close-call hands that change when the BJ rules change (H17 vs S17 or double deck vs 8 decks for example). But honestly, making mistakes on those hands is not giving away lots of EV.
OP asked about percent of players who play basic strategy "most of the time" and I wonder whether the above list qualifies.
Someone who stands on 16 vs 10 when they see a few low cards out may be making the wrong decision, but its a close call and I would not disqualify them from the ranks of "playing basic strategy most of the time".
However, someone who hits a 14 vs 6 is not a skilled player, IMO.
Quote: michael99000So “Skilled” means playing basic strategy ?
That doesn’t take any skill at all in my opinion. It takes a decent memory and a few hours of repetition. I mainly play at $25 minimum tables , sometimes higher , and in my estimation 90% of the people playing at my tables play basic strategy and play it for the most part correctly. Maybe a random error here or there on playing a soft hand or double/split plays.
Perhaps it's because you play at the 25$ tables, and I play at the 5$ ones, or maybe you're in Vegas (?) or AC (?). At the local (very small) casino where I play regularly, and have played for over 3 years now, I have not encountered a single player who knows basic strategy for the game they're playing (6D, H17, DAS, NS)--even the ones who are betting 25$ a hand and up. There are some that kind of know it, but there are always those tell-tale plays that reveal they don't know BS cold.
