Can CSM be beaten in blackjack?
April 15th, 2018 at 8:48:31 PM
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I met several players in Manila’ casinos who are trying to beat CSM blackjack by using Stephen How method of card counting. ( discount gaming .net). I asked them how they are dong so far. They said they are doing ok.
They sit in the table watching( counting) ,Wong in and Wong out , casino doesn’t care. They beat minimumon one hand, then when the count is good they beat every hand with maximum.
The rule here are pretty good for player: CSM 6 deck, early surrender, no peak, double any 2 cards,split any pair up to 3 times. Split ace once .lose original bet only when banker has BJ.Banker stand on soft 17. Double after split ( except Ace)
So , any comment?
They sit in the table watching( counting) ,Wong in and Wong out , casino doesn’t care. They beat minimumon one hand, then when the count is good they beat every hand with maximum.
The rule here are pretty good for player: CSM 6 deck, early surrender, no peak, double any 2 cards,split any pair up to 3 times. Split ace once .lose original bet only when banker has BJ.Banker stand on soft 17. Double after split ( except Ace)
So , any comment?
April 15th, 2018 at 11:58:38 PM
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Counting CSM Blackjack (+EV) is the article about the method, posted almost six years ago. Some replies to the article claim success using the method.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
April 16th, 2018 at 7:49:38 AM
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One thing to note either way... one hand of min to max hands at max is going to lead to some hideous variance. Thus, you could be playing this for tens of thousands of hands and be up when really you're -EV, or you could be way down when you're +EV. Going to take hundreds of thousands of hands to prove out the advantage...
I think it's beatable, only if you have a seriously ridiculously large bankroll. Think of it as being a regular shoe game and casinos cutting off 3/4 decks. Thus you only get 1 deck worth of information at a time before each shuffle. Your frequencies will be way less and thus when you do get the good counts you need to STUFF the betting driving your variance through the roof (as well as your bankroll requirements).
I think it's beatable, only if you have a seriously ridiculously large bankroll. Think of it as being a regular shoe game and casinos cutting off 3/4 decks. Thus you only get 1 deck worth of information at a time before each shuffle. Your frequencies will be way less and thus when you do get the good counts you need to STUFF the betting driving your variance through the roof (as well as your bankroll requirements).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
April 16th, 2018 at 4:21:31 PM
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I have the machine and have spent huge amount of time but still haven't figure out a solid strategy to beat it. I will share what i have found so far.
1. there are 38 slots and each contains 6 to 12 cards before it extracts the card. but on the latest version (one2six OTS), the max no. of card is 10 instead of 12.
2. when a certain number of cards are pulled (usually 10 cards, but sometimes less), one of the slot passes the cards into chute. in this case, the wheel doesn't move, and will use the closest slot to the chute.
3. there are always about 16 to 20 cards in the exit waiting to be played.
4. there are about 30 - 40 cards that cannot come out because they are less than 6 cards in a slot. it seems like those slots are usually crowded all together but they can be anywhere.
5. if you dont put the card back in the machine and keep taking out the cards, the slot wont move around and extracts the closest slot, so that the empty slots are all together.
6. if you keep taking out the card and when it needs to extract while its shuffling, the wheel stops at random point and extract the card and then start shuffling again.
7. i pull out 10 cards and put them back in one by one while the cover is opened and write down which slot the machine picks to fill the chute and which slot the cards go back in. the result was quite interesting.
it picks 2 areas for in and out. for example, machine picks slot #9 to fill the chute and then slot #23. when it picks those 2 areas, it will keep using the close areas to fill the chute. next was like #6, #20, #7, #21, #5, #19 and so on. the number only went downward and rarely use the same slot again. (maybe once the slot is used, it is emptied and takes awhile to get enough cards to extract.) same pattern applies to the slots that the cards go in.
this means some slots stay out of play for a prolonged time and the cards that will appear in the next round is very limited.
1. there are 38 slots and each contains 6 to 12 cards before it extracts the card. but on the latest version (one2six OTS), the max no. of card is 10 instead of 12.
2. when a certain number of cards are pulled (usually 10 cards, but sometimes less), one of the slot passes the cards into chute. in this case, the wheel doesn't move, and will use the closest slot to the chute.
3. there are always about 16 to 20 cards in the exit waiting to be played.
4. there are about 30 - 40 cards that cannot come out because they are less than 6 cards in a slot. it seems like those slots are usually crowded all together but they can be anywhere.
5. if you dont put the card back in the machine and keep taking out the cards, the slot wont move around and extracts the closest slot, so that the empty slots are all together.
6. if you keep taking out the card and when it needs to extract while its shuffling, the wheel stops at random point and extract the card and then start shuffling again.
7. i pull out 10 cards and put them back in one by one while the cover is opened and write down which slot the machine picks to fill the chute and which slot the cards go back in. the result was quite interesting.
it picks 2 areas for in and out. for example, machine picks slot #9 to fill the chute and then slot #23. when it picks those 2 areas, it will keep using the close areas to fill the chute. next was like #6, #20, #7, #21, #5, #19 and so on. the number only went downward and rarely use the same slot again. (maybe once the slot is used, it is emptied and takes awhile to get enough cards to extract.) same pattern applies to the slots that the cards go in.
this means some slots stay out of play for a prolonged time and the cards that will appear in the next round is very limited.
April 17th, 2018 at 8:12:58 PM
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Quote: deviruI have the machine and have spent huge amount of time but still haven't figure out a solid strategy to beat it. I will share what i have found so far.
are you in vegas? i will be in town for WSOP, and can bring the gear needed to non-destructively dump the ROM on this thing any which way we need to. wanna find out how these work for once and for all? :)
(seriously, PM me. i want to check out the code on these things as a matter of curiousity, regardless.)
April 18th, 2018 at 9:47:16 PM
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Quote: loldongsare you in vegas? i will be in town for WSOP, and can bring the gear needed to non-destructively dump the ROM on this thing any which way we need to. wanna find out how these work for once and for all? :)
(seriously, PM me. i want to check out the code on these things as a matter of curiousity, regardless.)
i would like to, but im not in vegas. you can pm and ask me anything.
April 19th, 2018 at 7:54:54 AM
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Quote: loldongsare you in vegas? i will be in town for WSOP, and can bring the gear needed to non-destructively dump the ROM on this thing any which way we need to. wanna find out how these work for once and for all? :)
(seriously, PM me. i want to check out the code on these things as a matter of curiousity, regardless.)
email me ... bj7up@yahoo.com
April 19th, 2018 at 8:22:14 PM
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deviru,
Did you ever manage to update the software?
Did you ever manage to update the software?
April 20th, 2018 at 12:59:39 AM
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Quote: acwdeviru,
Did you ever manage to update the software?
i updated it to 2.03.i but im not sure if this is the latest version.
April 20th, 2018 at 3:30:17 PM
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I did see some casinos use that version. On which website did you find the update?
April 20th, 2018 at 3:39:24 PM
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Have any of you seen these newer CSM machines yet? Greektown has a mix of these, One2Six, and regular shoe games.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
April 20th, 2018 at 8:29:45 PM
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Quote: acwI did see some casinos use that version. On which website did you find the update?
i called a local casino equipment store that have this machine for sale and a guy came out to do it for me.
April 24th, 2018 at 2:55:19 AM
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It sounds like this game in Manila is EV+ off the top, so any opportunity to count the cards (even with the limited penetration of a CSM) can be used to boost the EV even further.
I've not seen this Stephenhow article before, it makes for very interesting reading. I'm sceptical as to whether card counting a CSM (with the CSM operating as he has stated they do) is enough to gain a useful edge by itself. As Romes said, if it works then the variance (and therefore risk of ruin) will be huge.
What it could be useful for is making up part of an arsenal of edges to beat CSM's. Living in a country where 99%+ of casinos use CSM's for all Blackjack games, any exploration of ways to get an edge over them is something I'm always willing to consider. I haven't run sims or developed spread sheets to test all of the below, but I'm fairly confident CSM's can be beaten if you find the right games with the right players and use all of the techniques below which are possible at the time:
1) Keep a running count based on Stephenhows analysis of which cards definitely won't be dealt in the next hand. The count you use needs to be the most accurate one possible, which as far as I know (could be wrong) is Wong Halves.
2) Learn every index number which will realistically ever be applicable given how low the counts will be. Apply them when you play.
3) On the occasions the count becomes at all positive, bet as big as your bankroll and the casino will tolerate.
4) When the house edge becomes bigger than the average for that table, sit out that hand. The extent to which you can apply this depends on the tolerance of the casino staff at that particular casino, at that time of day. Some places won't care if you only play 1 in every 3 hands, others you will have to play a lot more of the hands while you're at the table. Against a CSM the casino staff may be more concerned about you taking up a seat and not betting when it's busy than they are about you card counting.
5) Count sidebets when there is an obvious opportunity. Learn in advance what you are looking for an abundance of to get a good count, i.e. if most of the cards are the same suit then you will be close to getting an edge in a sidebet that pays for a flush or hand of same colour. These opportunities will be very rare with the limited penetration, but they will occur at times if you play enough. When they come along bet as much as you can on as many boxes as you can.
6) Make sure you play carded. Get whatever comps, cashback and free bets you can.
7) If you find a player you know plays perfect basic strategy, consider betting behind them. A 0.5% house edge is reduced to around 0.3% for you by doing this, because you have the option to split for less.
8) If you can't bet behind another player, try at every opportunity to get other players to share your defensive splits with you. If you are successful every time then this will have the same impact as betting behind a BS player.
9) SCAVENGE. IMO this is key to beating CSM's. All of the other stuff can go a long way to lowering the house edge, but to get a real edge you need to find games with other players who are betting more than you who you can scavenge/poach EV+ doubles and splits from. This is one area I have found the UK is better than the US, as here it's quite common to have one or two players betting behind you. It doesn't matter how much each player has bet, if it's your box you make all of the decisions. Plenty of players don't want to double hands they should, and I've never had any issue at all from casino staff when I double for others.
If a player is being particularly rude and aggravating the table and the staff, I have no qualms about making plays that benefit me at their expense. For instance doubling my small bet on 8 vs dealer 6 if I know I the player/s betting behind me won't join in and their bets are enough bigger than mine that I gain EV overall by doing this. Also if they are stood behind me betting on my box and they smell bad (this happens more than I'd like) I will do this as much as I can to make money from them and try to get them to move away from me.
It's important to make sure you have all of the expected returns for standing/hitting/doubling/splitting tailored specifically for the rules of the game you are playing, and use them to decide in advance which hands you want to scavenge.
10) Dealer Errors. The dealers make errors, and more often than not they are to your detriment. I make a point of making sure they have counted the cards right, and paid me correctly. If I notice an error that is in my favour, I smile inside and take it. If I notice an error that goes against me, I point it out straight away. I try to learn who are the weaker dealers, and find out when they are coming to the end of a shift so they are tired, or pick a day when they are more likely to be hungover from the night before.
I'm aware some players consider targeting dealer errors to be immoral. They are entitled to their opinions, however it's important to remember that unless you are making a concerted effort to monitor the dealer to make sure they aren't making mistakes, then you are suffering from dealer errors throughout your Blackjack career. The errors you don't notice mean that whatever house edge you think you're playing against, it's actually substantially larger.
I would be very interested to know if anybody has any other techniques (or theories for techniques) that work against CSMs. Also, if anybody has ever done the maths (or has in-field experience) of applying CSM-attacking techniques to weird rules games. I would presume that the impact of these techniques will differ from game to game, so it might be that some bizarre game like Zombie Blackjack or Double Exposure is so much more susceptible that it doesn't matter if they have a larger house edge off the top, they are better CSM games to attack.
I've not seen this Stephenhow article before, it makes for very interesting reading. I'm sceptical as to whether card counting a CSM (with the CSM operating as he has stated they do) is enough to gain a useful edge by itself. As Romes said, if it works then the variance (and therefore risk of ruin) will be huge.
What it could be useful for is making up part of an arsenal of edges to beat CSM's. Living in a country where 99%+ of casinos use CSM's for all Blackjack games, any exploration of ways to get an edge over them is something I'm always willing to consider. I haven't run sims or developed spread sheets to test all of the below, but I'm fairly confident CSM's can be beaten if you find the right games with the right players and use all of the techniques below which are possible at the time:
1) Keep a running count based on Stephenhows analysis of which cards definitely won't be dealt in the next hand. The count you use needs to be the most accurate one possible, which as far as I know (could be wrong) is Wong Halves.
2) Learn every index number which will realistically ever be applicable given how low the counts will be. Apply them when you play.
3) On the occasions the count becomes at all positive, bet as big as your bankroll and the casino will tolerate.
4) When the house edge becomes bigger than the average for that table, sit out that hand. The extent to which you can apply this depends on the tolerance of the casino staff at that particular casino, at that time of day. Some places won't care if you only play 1 in every 3 hands, others you will have to play a lot more of the hands while you're at the table. Against a CSM the casino staff may be more concerned about you taking up a seat and not betting when it's busy than they are about you card counting.
5) Count sidebets when there is an obvious opportunity. Learn in advance what you are looking for an abundance of to get a good count, i.e. if most of the cards are the same suit then you will be close to getting an edge in a sidebet that pays for a flush or hand of same colour. These opportunities will be very rare with the limited penetration, but they will occur at times if you play enough. When they come along bet as much as you can on as many boxes as you can.
6) Make sure you play carded. Get whatever comps, cashback and free bets you can.
7) If you find a player you know plays perfect basic strategy, consider betting behind them. A 0.5% house edge is reduced to around 0.3% for you by doing this, because you have the option to split for less.
8) If you can't bet behind another player, try at every opportunity to get other players to share your defensive splits with you. If you are successful every time then this will have the same impact as betting behind a BS player.
9) SCAVENGE. IMO this is key to beating CSM's. All of the other stuff can go a long way to lowering the house edge, but to get a real edge you need to find games with other players who are betting more than you who you can scavenge/poach EV+ doubles and splits from. This is one area I have found the UK is better than the US, as here it's quite common to have one or two players betting behind you. It doesn't matter how much each player has bet, if it's your box you make all of the decisions. Plenty of players don't want to double hands they should, and I've never had any issue at all from casino staff when I double for others.
If a player is being particularly rude and aggravating the table and the staff, I have no qualms about making plays that benefit me at their expense. For instance doubling my small bet on 8 vs dealer 6 if I know I the player/s betting behind me won't join in and their bets are enough bigger than mine that I gain EV overall by doing this. Also if they are stood behind me betting on my box and they smell bad (this happens more than I'd like) I will do this as much as I can to make money from them and try to get them to move away from me.
It's important to make sure you have all of the expected returns for standing/hitting/doubling/splitting tailored specifically for the rules of the game you are playing, and use them to decide in advance which hands you want to scavenge.
10) Dealer Errors. The dealers make errors, and more often than not they are to your detriment. I make a point of making sure they have counted the cards right, and paid me correctly. If I notice an error that is in my favour, I smile inside and take it. If I notice an error that goes against me, I point it out straight away. I try to learn who are the weaker dealers, and find out when they are coming to the end of a shift so they are tired, or pick a day when they are more likely to be hungover from the night before.
I'm aware some players consider targeting dealer errors to be immoral. They are entitled to their opinions, however it's important to remember that unless you are making a concerted effort to monitor the dealer to make sure they aren't making mistakes, then you are suffering from dealer errors throughout your Blackjack career. The errors you don't notice mean that whatever house edge you think you're playing against, it's actually substantially larger.
I would be very interested to know if anybody has any other techniques (or theories for techniques) that work against CSMs. Also, if anybody has ever done the maths (or has in-field experience) of applying CSM-attacking techniques to weird rules games. I would presume that the impact of these techniques will differ from game to game, so it might be that some bizarre game like Zombie Blackjack or Double Exposure is so much more susceptible that it doesn't matter if they have a larger house edge off the top, they are better CSM games to attack.
April 26th, 2018 at 11:35:25 AM
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Quote: FranciscoI met several players in Manila’ casinos who are trying to beat CSM blackjack by using Stephen How method of card counting. ( discount gaming .net). I asked them how they are dong so far. They said they are doing ok.
They sit in the table watching( counting) ,Wong in and Wong out , casino doesn’t care. They beat minimumon one hand, then when the count is good they beat every hand with maximum.
The rule here are pretty good for player: CSM 6 deck, early surrender, no peak, double any 2 cards,split any pair up to 3 times. Split ace once .lose original bet only when banker has BJ.Banker stand on soft 17. Double after split ( except Ace)
So , any comment?
‘
early surrender against A also?
if no, it is the same rule as in Macau.
if yes, it is +EV the game itself. because 'no early surrender to A' is about -0.2%-all websites say this as i read,. and early surrender against A is worth 0.39%, as i read.
April 26th, 2018 at 3:44:49 PM
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No early surender against A.
December 13th, 2018 at 1:34:51 AM
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If you interest to beat csm , you can now
December 13th, 2018 at 1:40:29 AM
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"It sounds like this game in Manila is EV+ off the top,"
House edge is in the -.3 range. Decent, but not +EV off the top. That's for H17, which I think is more common, although I could be mistaken.
If the game is indeed S17 then it would be more like -.10%.
There is no ESA in Manila, only ES10.
Cards are swept at the end of the round.
House edge is in the -.3 range. Decent, but not +EV off the top. That's for H17, which I think is more common, although I could be mistaken.
If the game is indeed S17 then it would be more like -.10%.
There is no ESA in Manila, only ES10.
Cards are swept at the end of the round.
December 15th, 2018 at 4:25:46 PM
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Having only CSMs (no shoes at all).. I'm curious:
Does the one2six load cards single by single into the slots, such that a slot with 5 cards might only get 1 card added, or does it add the cards in 'clumps of 3 or more' ?
Does the one2six load cards single by single into the slots, such that a slot with 5 cards might only get 1 card added, or does it add the cards in 'clumps of 3 or more' ?
December 16th, 2018 at 4:42:17 PM
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Quote: loldongsare you in vegas? i will be in town for WSOP, and can bring the gear needed to non-destructively dump the ROM on this thing any which way we need to. wanna find out how these work for once and for all? :)
(seriously, PM me. i want to check out the code on these things as a matter of curiousity, regardless.)
DUMP THE ROM!! DUMP THE ROMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!
