Optimal betting ramp
TC bet
<=1. $10
2. $50
>=3. $160
I have replenishable BR of 8k. Am I betting optimally here? Please advice.
I'd say TC 0 or less $10
TC 1 $20
TC 2 $40
TC 3 $50
TC 4 $70
TC 5+ $80
use only red chips for betting.
If you can easily replenish your bankroll because you have a substantial income from employment with plenty of disposable income, I could get behind a max bet of $130 or so.
Please note if you are playing two hands then you must bet less.
bet spread $10 to $320+?!Quote: TomGThat looks pretty aggressive, but if you’re looking to be truly optimal, you’ll have to be more aggressive than most others would be willing. You’ll also have to bet even more at +4
what casino wont throw you out for doing that?!
Finally, for a S17 game, especially one with PA rules you mentioned (S17 LS) you do indeed have a decent advantage at TC +1. While for "rounding" math it's easy to consider each TC worth .5, TC +1 is actually worth a bit more, around .75 actually. Thus, if you're playing a .36% game, at TC +1 you'll have over a quarter of a percent advantage. Not the best, but definitely worth upping your bet.
I'd recommend the following:
TC < -1 = $0 (sit out)
TC < +1 = $10
TC = +1 = $30
TC = +2 = $60
TC = +3 = $120
TC = +4 = $160
Another 'tid bit' is that TC +3, due to it's advantage and frequency, is kind of the most 'bang for your buck' true count, which is why I recommend having the largest jump in your spread at TC +3.
Do be aware that this is a decently aggressive spread and that after some exposure it might get some attention. Heat will depend on each individual casino, but I don't know that you could camp out for hours and hours with this spread (if your intention is to camp out).
It depends on your options and how you're going to play. If you have a lot of casinos around, you should have a higher spread and then bounce from place to place as to not wear out your welcome. If you have only 1 place, you'd need to get a feel for their sweat levels at your level of play (red chip). If they don't care about red chips, then you can camp out and spread 1-16... but I'd say more than not 1-16 won't be tolerated day in day out for camping out purposes. If you're a weekend warrior, perhaps, or perhaps for at least a little while.Quote: blickThanks everyone for the replies. If you guys think 1-16 spread is aggressive, what about 1-12 spread? is that better and get less heat/no heat usually? is anything less than 1-12 spread with $10 as min bet, worth it? Appreciate all your inputs.
While I agree with everything TomG said, I think something important to keep in mind is that at the red chip level you're not making much EV. So downing max to 1% would probably bring his hourly EV down to something like $6/hour, less than minimum wage. At this level a lot of times people will trade a bit more RoR for EV, but again, it's up to each individual person. You could 'run well' and never even need 20 max bets on your run to N0. When I first started I used a replenishment bankroll and was lucky enough to run well enough not to need to replenish. So when I hit my first big downswing it was most of the profits I'd already won and not even dipping in to my original bankroll. I had a "unique and lucky" experience, but it is the 'other side of the curve' and does happen. So long as he's willing to replenish to 100 max bets (which I'm betting if he SIM'd it with PA rules you'd need less than 100 max bets) then he should be fine to run the 1-16 and get the "decent" hourly EV for the red chips (~$25/hour). This is without a good side bet ;-).Quote: TomGA 1-12 spread would be worse than 1-16; 1-20 would be better. The problem you have to deal with isn't how much you spread, it's betting up to 2% of your bankroll. Instead of replenishing your bankroll if you lose, you could just plenish it from the start, so that your max bet is closer to 1%
How do you bet $80 with only red chips? A stack of 16 chips? Doesn't the pit boss know that a teetering stack of red chips is the same as three greens and one red?
I'm going to Mesquite NV next week.
But using 16 chips is not ideal either because the dealer might not grab enough chips and then have to bring everything back to the tray or knock something over. You want to use fewer chips whenever possible, and you want to bet in only one colour.
1 - Whether this ramp is aggressive or not depends on your experience and heat. Personally, I have spent a lot of time with a 100 max bet practicing and also cultivating an erratic gambler's persona and making friends with everybody. So I didn't get any heat later even camping with incredible spreads. That being said you have to be aggressive to make it even remotely worthwhile.
2 - Wong out on negative counts. Wonging is definitely good for your bottom line, and also if done properly will not draw heat. Just take a quick call or go to the restroom or grab a drink. It might be less heat than someone who only bets 10$ for a while then jumps. If you wong out a lot, the hands that you do play won't be like 80% minimum bet but more spread out and again, make you seem like a gambler who needs a lot of breaks.
3 - Floating Advantage effect: The value of a count differs depending on where you are in the shoe! The later you are in the shoe the bigger your advantage. The value of a +2 count towards the end of the shoe can be more than that of +3 towards the beginning. To reduce the risk you can have a conservative spread early then in the last couple of decks be much more aggressive. Link:
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects2.htm
4 - Speed and pen is everything: I used to often play a min 25$ instead of min 10$ table with the same max bet (more aggressive ramp) just because that table is empty, the dealer is fast and gives good pen. The nice thing about PA rules is the low initial HE makes it so that if you use index plays and wonging (except heads up), you will not lose much on your minimum bets. Although the variance that comes with it is huge, it might be worth it to play faster.
TC<=+1 one red chip $5
TC = 2,two red chips $10
TC = 3 one green chip $25
TC>=4 two green chips $50
buy-in $300, $150 in $5's and $150 in $25's
TC<+1=$5
TC 2= $20
TC 3= $50
TC> 4= $75
That is for a 5 dollar table when I play 10 dollar table same thing just have to change low bet to 10, This has worked decent for me
Quote: blickThanks all for the inputs. Anyone here had success in using hi-lo for Spanish 21? Wizard of odds BS for Spanish 21 says the HE is around 0.4% for s17 game, but cant find much card counting articles in WOO.
Not my area of expertise, but those I respect have HIGHLY recommended this book by Katarina Walker . Very advanced, apparently, but it appears you're looking for advanced guidance, so if you don't already have it, maybe it's worth the investment.
Edit: only 1 left, now. I've been putting off ordering it myself for years. Broke down, though there are used copies available.
Be sure to read the review by D. Schlesinger, himself one of the most authoritative CC authors, if you doubt the value.
Quote: Don S.
By Donald E. Schlesinger on June 3, 2008
Once in a great long while, we are dazzled by the brilliance of an utter newcomer onto the scene of blackjack literature -- an author whose name is completely unknown to aficionados of the game, but whose qualifications, expertise, and scholarship are nonetheless impressive. Katarina Walker is just such an individual.
Since their creation, many years ago, Spanish 21 and its Australian equivalent, Pontoon, have rarely been taken seriously by blackjack pros. It was widely believed that these carnival-like bastardizations of the "real game" were nothing more than frivolous diversions for the uninitiated and fodder for the fools who would deign to play them. Until now! Imagine our surprise when along comes Ms. Walker to inform us of how wrong these beliefs are, as she presents her stunning "Pro's Guide" to these hitherto misunderstood games.
Walker has been playing Pontoon in her native Australia since the game was first introduced, and has won considerable sums of money traveling around the globe in search of the most exploitable Spanish 21 games to attack. This book is the result of over three years of research, computer programming, simulation, and calculations, and represents the distilled wisdom of, unquestionably, the foremost authority on these two games in the world today. To me, what is equally impressive are Katarina's innovative presentations of some of the material in a manner that is fresh, original, and has never before been seen in any blackjack text, be it on Spanish 21 or the classic version of the game.
This work is destined to become a classic in gaming circles, for it instantly qualifies as the most complete and magnificent tome ever written on Spanish 21. Make no mistake about it: a book of this scope and importance can be dangerous for the practitioners of the game. When the "enemy" reads this book -- and rest assured, he will -- there will undoubtedly be instant repercussions and unavoidable changes in the way Spanish 21 players are regarded by casino personnel. When it becomes widely known that Spanish 21 and Pontoon are every bit as beatable as their traditional blackjack counterpart and, in some cases, even more so, inevitable countermeasures are likely to be instituted. Such is progress!
So, read quickly: the days of pit bosses' turning their heads on the "dolts" who sit down at a Spanish 21 table may fast be coming to an end. Katarina Walker's work is going to put the game on the map forever, and it is also going to establish her as one of the brightest stars in the blackjack firmament -- an authority with impeccable credentials, whose future works will, I predict, be seriously sought after in the years to come. Join me in welcoming Ms. Walker to the blackjack community, and enjoy one of the most impressive and well-researched works on the game ever written.
