For fellow card counters

I've been counting cards regularly for about 3 months. I moved to Vegas 6 months ago, and play blackjack about 15 hrs a weekend. I've gotten pretty comfortable with keeping the count, but I've noticed that even when the count goes high (KO +4, or even +8), I get bad (stiff) cards quite often. I only play single and double deck games, and there's usually a couple of people at the table. I don't expect to get naturals every time the count jumps up, but I figured I'd get better hands than not. What are your experiences?

It sounds like experiencing the natural variance of the game. The count being higher is not exactly indicative that you're more likely to win your hand. The money in the game comes from 3-2 payoff, splits, doubles, and the dealer busting 'slightly' more often in larger counts.

If you haven't yet had the chance to check out the 3 articles I wrote for this site, I'd encourage you to do so. From beginner to advanced there's usually at least a little something in there for everyone. I've been told by nearly every single person that's messaged me that on each re-read they've picked up something new:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

The game can be pretty frustrating when all you see is positive counts and stiff hands for weeks, or even months on end. My teammate and I were in the red in BJ for 300 hours. That's a lot of stiff hands =). I hope you understand RoR, Kelly, standard deviations, and N0.

On the flip slide, there will be times where the count is moderately negative and you just keep getting dealt two 10's with minimum bets left and right.

When I started I had so many upside down runs, winning min bets on bad counts and losing big bets, resulting in 8 losing trips in a row. So much that one would wonder whether I was inversing the count... anyway I wasn't of course, and like a thousand hours later I am right around my EV.
It's just the huge variance of the game. Power through! godspeed

Quote: VegasSteve

I've been counting cards regularly for about 3 months. I moved to Vegas 6 months ago, and play blackjack about 15 hrs a weekend. I've gotten pretty comfortable with keeping the count, but I've noticed that even when the count goes high (KO +4, or even +8), I get bad (stiff) cards quite often. I only play single and double deck games, and there's usually a couple of people at the table. I don't expect to get naturals every time the count jumps up, but I figured I'd get better hands than not. What are your experiences?

How many hours have you put in total? You're never a favorite to win the next hand in blackjack. Your edge doesn't come from winning more hands than the dealer. It also doesn't come from making the dealer bust at a greater than 50% clip. Regardless of the count, dealer will never bust more than 45-46% of the time. Card counting banks on mostly the 3:2 payout and the ability to wager more money in advantageous hands such as doubling opportunities when you're a huge favorite as well as splitting opportunities.

I've gotten about 150-200 hours in, so far. I live here, so it's no big deal to drive down the street to go play, or to switch tables or even casinos if I'm losing during a session. This info is very useful. I see now where my edge comes from. It's a larger picture than I thought. Still, it makes the game so much more fun.

Quote: VegasSteve

I've gotten about 150-200 hours in, so far. I live here, so it's no big deal to drive down the street to go play, or to switch tables or even casinos if I'm losing during a session. This info is very useful. I see now where my edge comes from. It's a larger picture than I thought. Still, it makes the game so much more fun.

Have you read any books or have software?

Quote: VegasSteve

I've gotten about 150-200 hours in, so far. I live here, so it's no big deal to drive down the street to go play, or to switch tables or even casinos if I'm losing during a session. This info is very useful. I see now where my edge comes from. It's a larger picture than I thought. Still, it makes the game so much more fun.

How have you done? 150-200 hours with vegas double deck games, you have a good chance to be in the positive+, unless you're running badly or playing poorly.

Yes, I've read several books including Beat the dealer, Blackjack Blueprint, Knockout Blackjack, and a couple of others I can't remember.

I'm definitely doing good, and rarely have a losing session, but I'm also quick to switch tables if I'm not doing that well after a few shuffles. I'm very pleased with my results so far, especially with how new I am to this, and am still learning everything I can about blackjack and advantage plays. I just wanted clarification on what others experience when they play.

Quote: VegasSteve

Yes, I've read several books including Beat the dealer, Blackjack Blueprint, Knockout Blackjack, and a couple of others I can't remember.

I'm definitely doing good, and rarely have a losing session, but I'm also quick to switch tables if I'm not doing that well after a few shuffles. I'm very pleased with my results so far, especially with how new I am to this, and am still learning everything I can about blackjack and advantage plays. I just wanted clarification on what others experience when they play.

Switching tables when you're "not doing so well" doesn't change anything, just so you're aware. So long as it's a fresh shoe, doesn't matter what table it's on (assuming similar rules/etc). It's good to bounce around to avoid detection, but that's really the only reason you should bounce around =). I've found DD games where they didn't care if you camped out, and thus win or lose I'd camp it out for HOURS.

Right, switching tables is about getting a different deck composition. When counts go way negative and stay there until a shuffle, a lot of times it doesn't improve much after the shuffle. Several shuffles later, maybe its going positive, maybe not. Switching tables or casinos seems to help me avoid playing in consistently bad shoes. Of course, it's no guarantee that the next table is better.