Bust side bet

At casinos in Spain, Liechtenstein, and Austria I noticed a side bet on the dealer busting. It simply pays 5 to 2 if the dealer goes over 21. According to the rule booklet of Swiss Casinos Zurich, the title of the bet is simply "Bust."

Please check out my new page on the Bust bet. As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections. At a 1.3% house edge, assuming dealer stands on soft 17 and six decks, it is one of the best values I've ever seen in a side bet. Off hand, I can't think of a better one.

Strangely, on the same felt at the casino in Liechtenstein, they had another side bet (colored dealer blackjack pays 19 to 1) at a 52.5% house edge. Quite a range.

The question for the poll is would you bet the bust?

Quote: The Wiz

At a 1.3% house edge, assuming dealer stands on soft 17 and six decks, it is one of the best values I've ever seen in a side bet. Off hand, I can't think of a better one.

I can't find it on your side bet page, but isn't Press your Luck (Tie bet) a little less?


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I can't find it on your side bet page,

It is listed under Bust. However, here is a direct link -- Bust.

Quote:

but isn't Press your Luck (Tie bet) a little less?

Yes! I forgot about that one.

Both tables have the same heading. I’m sure you intended the second to say EV or something similar.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Both tables have the same heading. I’m sure you intended the second to say EV or something similar.

Thanks. Frequently made error.

Do they let you bet the sidebet after the dealers card is shown? Cromwell has a similar bet, but they let you bet it 'after' the dealer flips over their card. Problem is, it pays even money so it's not countable. Your OP mentions it pays 5-2 which changes everything, but do they let you bet it after the dealers card is shown or do you have to bet it before the round begins?

I can't find any stats on this side bet online. Just to make sure we're talking about the same thing, it's called EZ Bust and after the dealer's up card is dealt, if it's a 2 thru 6 then, you can choose to side bet up to your original bet if you think the dealer will bust. It pays 1:1 if the dealer ends up busting.

Quote: ZenKinG

Cromwell has a similar bet, but they let you bet it 'after' the dealer flips over their card. Problem is, it pays even money so it's not countable.

I'm not sure why the even money payout would make it non-countable. Seems like it would just change when it is appropriate to make the bet.

In a normal 2-deck, H17, game I believe the odds of the dealer busting with a 6 showing are just less than 44%. What I don't know is this: what are the odds of the dealer busting with a 6 showing AND a true count of +6?

Is there a matrix that shows the odds of a dealer bust for every possible dealer up card and every positive true count value (using hi lo)? Seems like when those are > 50% you should make this side bet (or is that too much of a card counter identification play to the eye)?

Thanks!

Quote: greyzone

I can't find any stats on this side bet online. Just to make sure we're talking about the same thing, it's called EZ Bust and after the dealer's up card is dealt, if it's a 2 thru 6 then, you can choose to side bet up to your original bet if you think the dealer will bust. It pays 1:1 if the dealer ends up busting.


I'm not sure why the even money payout would make it non-countable. Seems like it would just change when it is appropriate to make the bet.

In a normal 2-deck, H17, game I believe the odds of the dealer busting with a 6 showing are just less than 44%. What I don't know is this: what are the odds of the dealer busting with a 6 showing AND a true count of +6?

Is there a matrix that shows the odds of a dealer bust for every possible dealer up card and every positive true count value (using hi lo)? Seems like when those are > 50% you should make this side bet (or is that too much of a card counter identification play to the eye)?

Thanks!

It's not much of an increase as you think. Dealer bust rates based on a high TC adds about 3-5% extra on average. Without counting, the dealer is going to bust against a 2-6 at around a 35-42% clip with the dealer upcard of 5 being your best chance at a for a dealer bust at close to a 43% clip edging out the dealer upcard 6 bust rate of a 42% bust rate.

With counting, the bust rates do increase for the 2-6 dealer upcards, but it is still not above 50% like you thought. Even at a TC of +5, dealer upcards of 2-6 will only bust at around a 37-47% bust rate with once again the 5 being your best chance at a dealer bust at 47%, which edges out the dealer upcard of 6 of around 46%. Maybe if the TC were to get up to 10+, the side bet might slightly be beatable, but with way too much variance and because of the lack of bet frequency where you'll be making the bet, it therefore makes it not a good bet in my opinion.

If the Wizard can comment on this bet in these countries on whether or not you can make the bet 'after' you see the upcard, then this could be a highly vulnerable side bet to counting alone. With that being said, if you cant make the bet after the fact, the dealer will bust less at high TCs because of a higher frequency of having a 10 upcard and pat hands such as a 19 or 20, etc, but should still be highly vulnerable, at least from the top of my head without running the numbers.

Regarding the Cromwell bet, the sidebet is pure genius. There's a huge misconception about the dealer bust rates among basic strategy players and even the average counters out there. Players not only dont understand the bust rate percentages, but then dont realize the even money payout is a killer.

Once again, Cromwell management shows why they're in my opinion the smartest crew on the strip. They offer the most 3:2 tables on the strip out of any property (other than Pl. Hollywood, but hollywood offers a poor cut) that also includes surrender and a decent cut; not the best cut, but playable and dealer dependent. They also don't sweat the games for moderate stakes, and know how to entice the average players to these -ev side bets that are based on misconceptions about the game from the lack of understanding of the math of the game, but rather on hunches and confirmation subjective bias.

Quote: ZenKinG

Do they let you bet the sidebet after the dealers card is shown? Cromwell has a similar bet, but they let you bet it 'after' the dealer flips over their card. Problem is, it pays even money so it's not countable.

But it would be a good bet for other AP's

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

But it would be a good bet for other AP's

Goodluck hole carding the shoe game if thats what ur getting at. Thats more fantasy than anything. Im not sure if their DD has that sidebet, havent checked

Quote: ZenKinG

Goodluck hole carding the shoe game if thats what ur getting at. Thats more fantasy than anything. Im not sure if their DD has that sidebet, havent checked

You've got much to learn young padowan.