TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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October 10th, 2010 at 8:27:48 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Here's an example. I draw a ticket out of a drum, but before I look at it, I throw it back it the drum and choose another. Now, did my decision to draw a different ticket affect any single ticket's chances of being drawn? Of course not. (And if you don't see why, I give up.)



No, but that was not the original question. By picking a different ticket, you have picked a different number

Whether the difference comes before or after the outcome is known is immaterial

Imagine I have a hand of 13 and am allowed to choose between two cards that are face down, one of the cards is an eight, the other is a nine. There absolutely will be a difference in profit based on which one I see

Just because it is as likely to be good as bad ... just because over enough hours it will all balance out ... it does not mean there is no difference
Croupier
Croupier
Joined: Nov 15, 2009
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October 10th, 2010 at 10:25:06 AM permalink
Im sure I said something like that in the first couple of posts. This seems like another one of those threads that is just going to keep going round and round in circles.
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mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 10th, 2010 at 10:41:56 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

No, but that was not the original question. By picking a different ticket, you have picked a different number

Whether the difference comes before or after the outcome is known is immaterial

Imagine I have a hand of 13 and am allowed to choose between two cards that are face down, one of the cards is an eight, the other is a nine. There absolutely will be a difference in profit based on which one I see

Just because it is as likely to be good as bad ... just because over enough hours it will all balance out ... it does not mean there is no difference



Yes. You absolutely do not understand. You are focusing on the difference in RESULTS over a single trial. The randomness of CHOICE--i.e., before the result is known--means that all such choices are EQUIVALENT. When all your choices are equivalent, there is no FUNCTIONAL difference between one choice or the other.

In your example, picking the nine does NOT make a "difference", because the eight was never picked, therefore there is nothing for the nine (and the outcome it generates) to be different FROM. It is meaningless to differentiate between "actually happened" and "would have happened", if in the long run, all such outcomes sum to an equivalence.

I think you truly lack the (something: intellect, education, willingness to consider that your beliefs may be incorrect), so I won't try to explain any further. Randomness is something that our primate brains have a hard time wrapping themselves around. We search for patterns so desperately that we find patterns that aren't there. Randomness is UNSATISFYING to the primate brain--that's why the primate brain rejects the concept.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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October 10th, 2010 at 2:07:33 PM permalink
mkl, despite my stupidity, lack of education, poor intellectual skills and stubbornness, I was simply answering the original question, not trying to define randomness. And despite a brain of such low quality, the definition of randomness I use is close to to the one you gave. But that is not what the original question was asking. Despite equal EQUIVALENCIES, despite zero FUNCTIONAL differences, the cards you actually see at the table will be different

in my example, picking the nine is a random event. Yet picking the nine still leads to a different amount of profit than picking the other card

You seem to be making the assumption that a single trials cannot be looked upon. That is reading into things that were never stated. For those of us who have low intelligence, we aren't always able to do such things. So I wasn't able to ignore the idea that sometimes a single trial is all we have to go by. For myself, I am a lifetime winner in scratch-off tickets. Had I bought my one ticket from the grocery store rather than the gas station, I would most likely be a lifetime loser. Despite both places being completely random, where I bought the ticket was a big part in me being a lifetime winner instead of a lifetime loser (having only a single trial is the other part. . . ) Despite being completely random, what the player does in first seat does change the card that I will see

If I spend my entire paycheck on scratch tickets I am going to be a lifetime loser. Sit at a blackjack table for many hours and what the other players do isn't going to make a difference on how much money I walk away with. But that isn't what was asked. Perhaps if I had more education I could have known that what the real question was
soulhunt79
soulhunt79
Joined: Oct 8, 2010
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October 11th, 2010 at 11:00:15 PM permalink
I got into a nice 2 hour debate(the time it took to drive back to a friends house) on whether this mattered or not. For me it doesn't make a single bit of difference how someone plays, mostly the opposite for my friend. I say mostly because he won't care on one or 2 hands, but if it is 10 in a row he cares. I knew he wasn't going to convince me, and I knew I wasn't going to convince him. These are the debates I like. :)


While I really don't care how someone plays, I do care how someone is reacting on the table. In my experience other players at the table do care. Those people getting pissed off is ruining my entertainment. The topic of conversation shifts from whatever random crap is discussed on vacation to this person just made us lose the last 5 hands. I gamble for the enjoyment. I gamble at live casinos only because I want to gamble with others(or at the very least a live dealer I can chat with). That is at least half my entertainment, the BSing with all the other players.

So while it doesn't affect me, there is good odds it affects other people at the table which in a nice circle affects me.
benbakdoff
benbakdoff
Joined: Jul 13, 2010
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:13:36 AM permalink
Does your friend count cards or at least play perfect basic strategy? The fact that the play of others would bother him tells me that he may have a few chinks in his own armor.

It would be rare indeed if none of those ten "mistakes" in a row helped him.

You hit the nail on the head. It's the clueless clods that ruin it for the others. They'll mouth off before the hand is even over.

People play blackjack for different reasons. If someone plays for fun a couple of times a year and doesn't want to learn basic strategy that is their right. Even with mistakes they are better off than some of the other casino games.

No one should be intimidated or made to feel unwelcome at the table.

Unfortunately the blackjack bullies won't be going away anytime soon.

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