Blackjack Question
October 6th, 2010 at 12:10:08 AM
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I did a thread on this a couple years ago and got some damn interesting replies. I thought of this again because it came up at the roulette table from a fellow gambler.
Lets say you are playing blackjack and you are the third player, last to be dealt to. The other two guys are not hitting when they should or taking a hit when they should not. How will this affect you, the smart player? Does it make any difference to YOU in regards to your overall profit or loses? Ken
Lets say you are playing blackjack and you are the third player, last to be dealt to. The other two guys are not hitting when they should or taking a hit when they should not. How will this affect you, the smart player? Does it make any difference to YOU in regards to your overall profit or loses? Ken
October 6th, 2010 at 12:40:06 AM
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Short term - Yes
Overall - no.
Overall - no.
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October 6th, 2010 at 12:49:48 AM
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edit.
October 6th, 2010 at 12:56:15 AM
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I didnt mean to sit on the fence overall, I just missed off part of my post. I meant to say short term yes and no, and say no, overall it doesnt make a difference. For all the times bad play will hurt you it will help you almost as much. Its just part of the human psyche to remember the bad over the good.
The short term I was referring to covers a single hand.
The short term I was referring to covers a single hand.
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October 6th, 2010 at 1:23:08 AM
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Quote: mrjjjDoes it make any difference to YOU in regards to your overall profit or loses? Ken
No.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 6th, 2010 at 4:15:05 AM
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I've seen some games wherein a guy is playing 300.00 a hand and is at the middle of the table with no other players. Its clear that the floor will be discouraging other players even if that sign "300.00 Minimum" doesn't discourage them. (Perhaps attempting to intrude would be a guaranteed food comp from that floor?)
Sometimes people just want to be alone and sometimes other persons playing can be a distraction even if there is absolutely perfect play. I feel however that most of these solitary players are interested in getting "their" cards and not having someone's misplay causing them to be deprived of the card that destiny has assigned as being properly for them.
No roll of the dice "uses up" a five and deprives the next shooter of some of his fives. Yet at Blackjack there is a certain existing sequence to the cards and players seem to think that whatever misplay they perceive in others is costing the player his destiny.
I suppose its a rather harmless belief. I rather doubt that such players as believe they have been robbed of their destiny ever thank the Misplaying player when "being robbed of one's destiny" means getting 21 rather than 22.
Sometimes people just want to be alone and sometimes other persons playing can be a distraction even if there is absolutely perfect play. I feel however that most of these solitary players are interested in getting "their" cards and not having someone's misplay causing them to be deprived of the card that destiny has assigned as being properly for them.
No roll of the dice "uses up" a five and deprives the next shooter of some of his fives. Yet at Blackjack there is a certain existing sequence to the cards and players seem to think that whatever misplay they perceive in others is costing the player his destiny.
I suppose its a rather harmless belief. I rather doubt that such players as believe they have been robbed of their destiny ever thank the Misplaying player when "being robbed of one's destiny" means getting 21 rather than 22.
October 6th, 2010 at 1:08:48 PM
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The decisions of other players do not bother me or affect my overall profit or loss in any way. What's funny though, is that these people are the first ones to complain when I make a basic strategy play that's not to their liking.
My response to them is either buy my hand or accurately tell me the next card to be dealt. I've had a few takers on the former when showing 12 vs the dealer's 3 for example, but never on the latter.
A guy went nuts just this morning because I split 4's against a five. He insisted that you never split anything that starts with the letter F. I had an F word for him, but I am way too polite.
My response to them is either buy my hand or accurately tell me the next card to be dealt. I've had a few takers on the former when showing 12 vs the dealer's 3 for example, but never on the latter.
A guy went nuts just this morning because I split 4's against a five. He insisted that you never split anything that starts with the letter F. I had an F word for him, but I am way too polite.
October 6th, 2010 at 1:31:00 PM
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Quote: CroupierI didnt mean to sit on the fence overall, I just missed off part of my post. I meant to say short term yes and no, and say no, overall it doesnt make a difference. For all the times bad play will hurt you it will help you almost as much. Its just part of the human psyche to remember the bad over the good.
The short term I was referring to covers a single hand.
It doesn't even matter in the short term. I hit, and I get a randomly chosen card. It doesn't matter if this is the first, second, or for that matter, 90th card in the deck. That guy who acts before me is just another randomizing element; he is just as likely to help me as to hurt me. We tend to focus on when someone "takes our card", but I've seen that happen to my benefit just as much as to my detriment.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
October 7th, 2010 at 5:08:31 AM
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Quote: benbakdoff
He insisted that you never split anything that starts with the letter F.
What a cool rule! :)
(It's also a correct one, I believe, for a no DAS game).
How much did you ask for your 12 vs. 3 hand?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
October 7th, 2010 at 7:07:21 AM
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Quote: benbakdoffA guy went nuts just this morning because I split 4's against a five. He insisted that you never split anything that starts with the letter F. I had an F word for him, but I am way too polite.
Should you run into that rule again, just tell them you use Spanish numbers. No cards start with F that way.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 7th, 2010 at 9:42:02 AM
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"He insisted that you never split anything that starts with the letter F" >>> So is the opposite rule correct? Every number NOT starting with an F, split those? Ken
October 7th, 2010 at 10:05:43 AM
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No, to this and your original question. Go to Wizard of Odds and print the strategies.
October 7th, 2010 at 10:54:48 AM
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I will if I feel like it, thank you. Ken
October 7th, 2010 at 11:28:25 AM
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Quote: weaselmanWhat a cool rule! :)
(It's also a correct one, I believe, for a no DAS game).
How much did you ask for your 12 vs. 3 hand?
You are correct about the no DAS game.
I asked for 1.5 times my bet up front. The buyer now owns the money in the circle and I comply with his wishes on playing out the hand. Essentially I'm being paid to stay on the 12.
It's even better if the true count goes to +2 or higher. Now I'm getting paid on a hand that I was going to stay on anyway.
This doesn't happen very often and I couldn't care less if it ever happens again.
This is just my way of saying put up or shut up.
October 7th, 2010 at 3:16:21 PM
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Quote: NareedShould you run into that rule again, just tell them you use Spanish numbers. No cards start with F that way.
Yeah, but then the F word becomes the C word.
No, not that one..... Callate!
October 7th, 2010 at 3:43:42 PM
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Quote: benbakdoffYeah, but then the F word becomes the C word.
No, not that one..... Callate!
Well, that would be rude, but it completely wastes Spanish's ability to load vituperation into an insult. I'd post an example here, but I make it a policiy not to tease parental filters. Besides, these days if you try a Spanish insult in the US all too many people are likely to understand it.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 7th, 2010 at 6:59:10 PM
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What if you're a professional card counter. Would it make a difference then? Let's say the players draw too many cards when the count is high and causes the cut card to come out prematurely. What if the same players over-draw, which allows you to see more cards than you might otherwise see? ...which is then offset by fewer hands per shoe?
Hmnnn.
Hmnnn.
October 8th, 2010 at 3:36:38 AM
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These things happen all the time and are accepted as part of the game. Yes, they will eat your good cards in high counts but they will also eat the dealer's good cards in low counts.
A counter doesn't waste time worrying about what other players are doing.
A high count is a high count and he or she will use all of their skills to exploit it.
To get a bigger piece of the action in a favorable shoe, the counter simply spreads to multiple hands.
A counter doesn't waste time worrying about what other players are doing.
A high count is a high count and he or she will use all of their skills to exploit it.
To get a bigger piece of the action in a favorable shoe, the counter simply spreads to multiple hands.
October 8th, 2010 at 6:47:13 AM
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Quote: mkl314159It doesn't even matter in the short term. I hit, and I get a randomly chosen card. It doesn't matter if this is the first, second, or for that matter, 90th card in the deck. That guy who acts before me is just another randomizing element; he is just as likely to help me as to hurt me. We tend to focus on when someone "takes our card", but I've seen that happen to my benefit just as much as to my detriment.
The card is not randomly chosen. It's either the card that the player did not take or should have taken. That is, if your next door neighbor has a 12 against a 2 and stands and you double down on your 11 and get his 5, and the dealer has a 12 and pulls a 9 for 21 (and the next card is a 10) his actions definitely had an effect.
But absolutely correct otherwise, it neither helps or hinders. I've seen dumbass moves at third base help just as much. You just have to be analytical at the table and realize that the math shows no difference and your memory plays tricks on you. At the same time, I don't like playing at tables with dumbasses (unless they are hot women wearing low cut shirts) because they get mad when they lose (more often) which brings the attitude at the entire table down).
Actually, slightly off topic, does remembering the bad plays over the good reflect on your general attitude towards gaming.
For example, if you actually believe, in craps in a "stick change 7", (when the crew changes, you seven out on the next roll), does that mean that you generally have a negative attitude toward gaming?
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
October 8th, 2010 at 9:20:26 AM
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Quote: boymimboThe card is not randomly chosen. It's either the card that the player did not take or should have taken. That is, if your next door neighbor has a 12 against a 2 and stands and you double down on your 11 and get his 5, and the dealer has a 12 and pulls a 9 for 21 (and the next card is a 10) his actions definitely had an effect.
But absolutely correct otherwise, it neither helps or hinders. I've seen dumbass moves at third base help just as much. You just have to be analytical at the table and realize that the math shows no difference and your memory plays tricks on you. At the same time, I don't like playing at tables with dumbasses (unless they are hot women wearing low cut shirts) because they get mad when they lose (more often) which brings the attitude at the entire table down).
But what I'm trying to get across is that the player before you choosing to hit or not to hit is in itself a randomizing element. Sometime he will, and you'll get the second (or the third) card in the deck when you hit; sometimes he won't, and you'll get the first card. Whether he hits or not is determined by the random hand he was dealt, as well as the random nature of his decision process.
What is confusing your thinking, I believe, is shown by your saying "his actions definitely had an effect". That isn't actually true. If all his actions did was further randomize the outcome, then his actions, in reality, had no effect whatsoever. If you get the analogy, it's like making an additional odds bet in craps.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
October 8th, 2010 at 2:27:02 PM
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The correct answer is that it absolutely does make a difference. The card you see is absolutely going to be a different card than otherwise
Just because the difference is just as likely to be profitable as it is to be a loss doesn't mean their isn't a difference
Just because the difference is just as likely to be profitable as it is to be a loss doesn't mean their isn't a difference
October 8th, 2010 at 3:31:23 PM
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Quote: TomGThe correct answer is that it absolutely does make a difference. The card you see is absolutely going to be a different card than otherwise
Just because the difference is just as likely to be profitable as it is to be a loss doesn't mean their isn't a difference
No. There is no difference. This is a concept that escapes many people. One random outcome with the same set of possibilities is the same as another. You can take the first card or the second card or the 25th card. In each case it will be a randomly chosen card. All equivalent random choices are equal.
What you are failing to see is that the "difference" you are referring to is AFTER THE OUTCOME IS KNOWN. Before the outcome is known, there is no difference between choosing one random outcome and another.
Here's an example. I draw a ticket out of a drum, but before I look at it, I throw it back it the drum and choose another. Now, did my decision to draw a different ticket affect any single ticket's chances of being drawn? Of course not. (And if you don't see why, I give up.)
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
October 8th, 2010 at 4:17:15 PM
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Not trying to stir the pot but this is WHY I ask on other boards. The MORE views being posted, the better insight. Ken
October 8th, 2010 at 4:28:13 PM
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Of course you're trying to stir the pot... why else would you ask?
Why don't you let everyone know your view? Please, tell us what you think about the question? That way no one will think you're stirring the pot. Once you've posted your opinion then you'll be much less likely to straddle the fence.
The fact is that for one hand it is possibly going to change the outcome of your hand. If you only play one hand of blackjack then yes, it can make a difference. If you play any amount of blackjack beyond one hand then the more hands you play the less effect it will have as a "bad" play will sometimes hurt you and sometimes be of benefit. Once you play into the hundreds and then thousands (and tens of thousands) of hands it will have a negligible effect on your bankroll.
That is what is meant by the long term. Anyone can point to one hand or one streak of cards (or spins or rolls) and looking back, point out what could have been done to make a positive difference for the player. No one can take that information and show how it will have any effect on future outcomes apart from a diligent card counter who then still only has a slight mathematical advantage and this still does not preclude the possiblilty of having a losing session.
Why don't you let everyone know your view? Please, tell us what you think about the question? That way no one will think you're stirring the pot. Once you've posted your opinion then you'll be much less likely to straddle the fence.
The fact is that for one hand it is possibly going to change the outcome of your hand. If you only play one hand of blackjack then yes, it can make a difference. If you play any amount of blackjack beyond one hand then the more hands you play the less effect it will have as a "bad" play will sometimes hurt you and sometimes be of benefit. Once you play into the hundreds and then thousands (and tens of thousands) of hands it will have a negligible effect on your bankroll.
That is what is meant by the long term. Anyone can point to one hand or one streak of cards (or spins or rolls) and looking back, point out what could have been done to make a positive difference for the player. No one can take that information and show how it will have any effect on future outcomes apart from a diligent card counter who then still only has a slight mathematical advantage and this still does not preclude the possiblilty of having a losing session.
Happiness is underrated
October 8th, 2010 at 4:35:22 PM
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My view and whether I'm correct or not could be two different things. I THINK, it really makes no difference if the player next to me is taking hits when he should not. Am I right? I dont know. Like I said in the post. I was talking to ANOTHER fellow gambler and the subject came up. You have missed my point. I could ask on 8 different roulette boards....is the world round? I PROMISE you, not everyone will agree with each other. Your logic is goofy. So if a person ASKS a legit question....they are stirring the pot? lol Ken
October 9th, 2010 at 3:55:53 AM
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Quote: mrjjjMy view and whether I'm correct or not could be two different things. I THINK, it really makes no difference if the player next to me is taking hits when he should not. Am I right? I dont know. Like I said in the post. I was talking to ANOTHER fellow gambler and the subject came up. You have missed my point. I could ask on 8 different roulette boards....is the world round? I PROMISE you, not everyone will agree with each other. Your logic is goofy. So if a person ASKS a legit question....they are stirring the pot? lol Ken
Yes Ken, you are definitely right. Are you thinking of playing blackjack? You might be good at it.
October 9th, 2010 at 4:06:15 AM
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....No, I might play four times a year. I read many years ago, pick ONE casino game. Study every damn thing about it. Commit ONLY to that game, master it (open to definition). I picked roulette years ago and am glad I did. KenQuote: benbakdoffYes Ken, you are definitely right. Are you thinking of playing blackjack? You might be good at it.
October 9th, 2010 at 9:46:01 AM
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Quote: mrjjjI could ask on 8 different roulette boards....is the world round? I PROMISE you, not everyone will agree with each other.
Hmmm...Yep. And that's about all you need to know about serious Roulette players right there:-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 9th, 2010 at 10:42:32 AM
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Quote: rdw4potusHmmm...Yep. And that's about all you need to know about serious Roulette players right there:-)
Great answer!!!!!!!
October 9th, 2010 at 12:02:55 PM
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....No prob, I can rephrase. You could go to ANY of 8 boards of ANY subject and ask that question. Guess what? Most likely not everyone would agree. I love how inconsistent some (not all) people are. lol Some ask, why post the SAME question on other boards? Well, I get many DIFFERENT answers, soooo, doesn't that kind of explain the 'why' of it? How boring to pick ONE board to ask a question when YOU KNOW ALREADY, the SAME goofs handing out the SAME 'ole one sided bias answer. lol The MORE opinions, the BETTER, no doubt. KenQuote: SOOPOOGreat answer!!!!!!!
October 10th, 2010 at 8:27:48 AM
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Quote: mkl654321Here's an example. I draw a ticket out of a drum, but before I look at it, I throw it back it the drum and choose another. Now, did my decision to draw a different ticket affect any single ticket's chances of being drawn? Of course not. (And if you don't see why, I give up.)
No, but that was not the original question. By picking a different ticket, you have picked a different number
Whether the difference comes before or after the outcome is known is immaterial
Imagine I have a hand of 13 and am allowed to choose between two cards that are face down, one of the cards is an eight, the other is a nine. There absolutely will be a difference in profit based on which one I see
Just because it is as likely to be good as bad ... just because over enough hours it will all balance out ... it does not mean there is no difference
October 10th, 2010 at 10:25:06 AM
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Im sure I said something like that in the first couple of posts. This seems like another one of those threads that is just going to keep going round and round in circles.
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October 10th, 2010 at 10:41:56 AM
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Quote: TomGNo, but that was not the original question. By picking a different ticket, you have picked a different number
Whether the difference comes before or after the outcome is known is immaterial
Imagine I have a hand of 13 and am allowed to choose between two cards that are face down, one of the cards is an eight, the other is a nine. There absolutely will be a difference in profit based on which one I see
Just because it is as likely to be good as bad ... just because over enough hours it will all balance out ... it does not mean there is no difference
Yes. You absolutely do not understand. You are focusing on the difference in RESULTS over a single trial. The randomness of CHOICE--i.e., before the result is known--means that all such choices are EQUIVALENT. When all your choices are equivalent, there is no FUNCTIONAL difference between one choice or the other.
In your example, picking the nine does NOT make a "difference", because the eight was never picked, therefore there is nothing for the nine (and the outcome it generates) to be different FROM. It is meaningless to differentiate between "actually happened" and "would have happened", if in the long run, all such outcomes sum to an equivalence.
I think you truly lack the (something: intellect, education, willingness to consider that your beliefs may be incorrect), so I won't try to explain any further. Randomness is something that our primate brains have a hard time wrapping themselves around. We search for patterns so desperately that we find patterns that aren't there. Randomness is UNSATISFYING to the primate brain--that's why the primate brain rejects the concept.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
October 10th, 2010 at 2:07:33 PM
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mkl, despite my stupidity, lack of education, poor intellectual skills and stubbornness, I was simply answering the original question, not trying to define randomness. And despite a brain of such low quality, the definition of randomness I use is close to to the one you gave. But that is not what the original question was asking. Despite equal EQUIVALENCIES, despite zero FUNCTIONAL differences, the cards you actually see at the table will be different
in my example, picking the nine is a random event. Yet picking the nine still leads to a different amount of profit than picking the other card
You seem to be making the assumption that a single trials cannot be looked upon. That is reading into things that were never stated. For those of us who have low intelligence, we aren't always able to do such things. So I wasn't able to ignore the idea that sometimes a single trial is all we have to go by. For myself, I am a lifetime winner in scratch-off tickets. Had I bought my one ticket from the grocery store rather than the gas station, I would most likely be a lifetime loser. Despite both places being completely random, where I bought the ticket was a big part in me being a lifetime winner instead of a lifetime loser (having only a single trial is the other part. . . ) Despite being completely random, what the player does in first seat does change the card that I will see
If I spend my entire paycheck on scratch tickets I am going to be a lifetime loser. Sit at a blackjack table for many hours and what the other players do isn't going to make a difference on how much money I walk away with. But that isn't what was asked. Perhaps if I had more education I could have known that what the real question was
in my example, picking the nine is a random event. Yet picking the nine still leads to a different amount of profit than picking the other card
You seem to be making the assumption that a single trials cannot be looked upon. That is reading into things that were never stated. For those of us who have low intelligence, we aren't always able to do such things. So I wasn't able to ignore the idea that sometimes a single trial is all we have to go by. For myself, I am a lifetime winner in scratch-off tickets. Had I bought my one ticket from the grocery store rather than the gas station, I would most likely be a lifetime loser. Despite both places being completely random, where I bought the ticket was a big part in me being a lifetime winner instead of a lifetime loser (having only a single trial is the other part. . . ) Despite being completely random, what the player does in first seat does change the card that I will see
If I spend my entire paycheck on scratch tickets I am going to be a lifetime loser. Sit at a blackjack table for many hours and what the other players do isn't going to make a difference on how much money I walk away with. But that isn't what was asked. Perhaps if I had more education I could have known that what the real question was
October 11th, 2010 at 11:00:15 PM
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I got into a nice 2 hour debate(the time it took to drive back to a friends house) on whether this mattered or not. For me it doesn't make a single bit of difference how someone plays, mostly the opposite for my friend. I say mostly because he won't care on one or 2 hands, but if it is 10 in a row he cares. I knew he wasn't going to convince me, and I knew I wasn't going to convince him. These are the debates I like. :)
While I really don't care how someone plays, I do care how someone is reacting on the table. In my experience other players at the table do care. Those people getting pissed off is ruining my entertainment. The topic of conversation shifts from whatever random crap is discussed on vacation to this person just made us lose the last 5 hands. I gamble for the enjoyment. I gamble at live casinos only because I want to gamble with others(or at the very least a live dealer I can chat with). That is at least half my entertainment, the BSing with all the other players.
So while it doesn't affect me, there is good odds it affects other people at the table which in a nice circle affects me.
While I really don't care how someone plays, I do care how someone is reacting on the table. In my experience other players at the table do care. Those people getting pissed off is ruining my entertainment. The topic of conversation shifts from whatever random crap is discussed on vacation to this person just made us lose the last 5 hands. I gamble for the enjoyment. I gamble at live casinos only because I want to gamble with others(or at the very least a live dealer I can chat with). That is at least half my entertainment, the BSing with all the other players.
So while it doesn't affect me, there is good odds it affects other people at the table which in a nice circle affects me.
October 12th, 2010 at 4:13:36 AM
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Does your friend count cards or at least play perfect basic strategy? The fact that the play of others would bother him tells me that he may have a few chinks in his own armor.
It would be rare indeed if none of those ten "mistakes" in a row helped him.
You hit the nail on the head. It's the clueless clods that ruin it for the others. They'll mouth off before the hand is even over.
People play blackjack for different reasons. If someone plays for fun a couple of times a year and doesn't want to learn basic strategy that is their right. Even with mistakes they are better off than some of the other casino games.
No one should be intimidated or made to feel unwelcome at the table.
Unfortunately the blackjack bullies won't be going away anytime soon.
It would be rare indeed if none of those ten "mistakes" in a row helped him.
You hit the nail on the head. It's the clueless clods that ruin it for the others. They'll mouth off before the hand is even over.
People play blackjack for different reasons. If someone plays for fun a couple of times a year and doesn't want to learn basic strategy that is their right. Even with mistakes they are better off than some of the other casino games.
No one should be intimidated or made to feel unwelcome at the table.
Unfortunately the blackjack bullies won't be going away anytime soon.
