Bovada Bonus Beatable?

Hi Guys,

This is my first thread. I was reading The Wizard's analysis of quarterly bonuses that different online casinos have to offer. One of the casinos was Bovada. I have been a regular on Bovada for a couple of years now. Right now they are promoting a 100% bonus matchable up to $1,000 with a 25x rollover, with some games contributing less.

After reading The Wizard's analysis on the 98% return slots, I've decided to do an analysis on their new offering of Single-Deck Blackjack. It is BJ3:2, HS17, DAS, Split once, no surrender, double on any 2. Using The Wizard's Blackjack house edge calculator, the house edge is 0.03748%. However, Single-Deck Blackjack only contribute 5% of the wager to the rollover. Here is my analysis:

Total Wagers = $2,000 x 25 rollover x 20 (5% contribution) = $1,000,000
Multiply $1,000,000 by house edge (0.03748/100) = $374.80
$2,000-$374.80 = $1,625.20

According to this, playing Single-Deck and finishing the rollover, the player can expect to make $625.20. Is my analysis correct? If it is correct, how practical is this in achieving a way to make some money? Making $1,000,000 in bets seems like a very long task and I believe the wagers cannot be too high because the starting amount is only $2,000.

Hey gospeedgo, and welcome to the forums.

Looks like you kinda have the right idea. I didn't double check your math, but food for thought. Assuming your math is correct, that would mean you need $1,000,000 in blackjack wagers. With only a $2k bankroll I'd assume you'd want to play min (which usually on their good games is $25). Plus, if you bet less than $25 it would amplify my next point...

At $25 per hand, it would take you 40,000 hands of blackjack to meet the wagering requirement. Let's pretend you play at a good online pace of 200 hands per hour... that would still take you 200 hours to complete. Again *assuming* your math is correct, that means you'd be making $3.13/hour, for 200 hours. To each their own though if you're going to play online "for fun" anyways, might as well make some small profits.

Next is variance... I hope you understand variance in blackjack. Variance means while the house has a small edge on any small enough sampling size (such as 1 night) anything can happen. This is why if you go to a casino on any 1 given night (even as a card counter) you can lose, or you can win... but overtime variance is smoothed out and you hit a lot closer to expectation. This is why the house always wins against non card counters, and why good card counters always win over the house. Again though, the point is on any 1 given night (or 1 given week, etc) you might win or you might lose just due to the variance of the game. Your $2k bankroll is not enough to withstand the variance of playing $25/hand, and if you play less (like $5 per hand) you'll need 200k hands of blackjack and it'll take you 1,000 hours and then you'll be looking to make about $0.63/hour...

AvgBet = 25
OriginalSD = 1.15*25 = $28.75

EV(x hands) = (x*AvgBet)*(HE)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x)*OriginalSD

EV(1,000 hands) = (1,000*25)*(-.00038) = -$9.5
SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1,000)*28.75 = $909.15... 2SD = $1808.30

EV(5,000 hands) = (5,000*25)*(-.00038) = -$47.50
SD(5,000 hands) = Sqrt(5,000)*28.75 = $2032.93... 2SD = $4065.86

EV(10,000 hands) = (10,000*25)*(-.00038) = -$95
SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(10,000)*28.75 = $2875... 2SD = $5750

EV(10,000 hands) = (20,000*25)*(-.00038) = -$190
SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(20,000)*28.75 = $4065.86... 2SD = $8131.73

Point being, with simple variance (bad luck) in the short term, you could lose your $2k bankroll quite easily. At almost every step of the way you could be down $2k with only minor bad luck (not even running 'real bad'). That being said even if your math is correct it's just really not worth it. You could take those 200 hours and put them to more practical use, like learning to count cards and doing that in a real casino for an exponentially greater return than this =P.

Hi Romes,

Thank you for the analysis. I am still getting the hang of learning about variance, standard deviations, etc. I do like math, which is probably why I like studying gambling and the house edges. Your analysis is helpful.

The minimum is actually $1 for their Blackjack. Betting this small though is not going to be practical though as you pointed out in the analysis. Just to point out that I am a low-stakes gambler that is doing $3 hands on their website and am doing it for recreation. In a real casino I would be seen making the minimum bets at the tables haha!

I am actually practicing doing the high-low counting. One problem I run into is I live in a terrible place to be when it comes to casinos. Where i live in California, I am 30 minutes from card rooms that charge a $1 hand fee on every Blackjack hand played, and 15 minutes away from a no-hand-collection 6-5 Blackjack room. The closest Indian casinos with the low edge are 3 hours away.

My advice is to make max bets in slots. There may be a max bet rule, I don't know. Try to get your balance to $8,000 or so, in which case grind out the play requirement.

For some reason, I cant get on BV anymore from LV, it says my area is restricted last time I checked.

I don't know how people in LV are making sports bets still?

Is the OP or someone claiming BV has 98% payback on slots ???? If so, ROTFLMAO.

Quote: Wizard

My advice is to make max bets in slots. There may be a max bet rule, I don't know. Try to get your balance to $8,000 or so, in which case grind out the play requirement.

Are you still on make-up if you don't finish the WR's?

AxelWolf, according to the Help section on the slots game by Rival Games "Rock On", the expected payback is 98.00%. The Wizard pointed this out on his post on his main website in the quarterly bonuses section.

Quote: gospeedgo11

AxelWolf, according to the Help section on the slots game by Rival Games "Rock On", the expected payback is 98.00%. The Wizard pointed this out on his post on his main website in the quarterly bonuses section.

Betsoft was supposed to have fair games as well, but they didn't. At the time they had some kind of certified payback, blah blah blah. Bovada had been using Betsoft for years. Didn't Bovada notice their hold on the slots was significantly higher than it should have been? Either they didn't notice because there's no real way to tell and they don't really know if they are 98%. Or, they knew and went along with the scam anyway.

I'm not saying you it's not an advantage and you can't beat them( I beat them silly for years, including the slots) I'm just saying, I wouldn't trust their word that any slot they have is really 98%.

When calculating your edge online make sure it's a significant one before you invest your money if you're thinking it's an advantage play.

Can you tell me if you are still on makeup? And by that I mean if you lose your money before you finish your WR's it gets added the next time you play.

I am not familiar with the term makeup, and I'm also not sure what WR is. Sorry, I'm a newbie when it comes to these things.

Quote: gospeedgo11

I am not familiar with the term makeup, and I'm also not sure what WR is. Sorry, I'm a newbie when it comes to these things.

WR= Wagering requirement. A few years back Bovada changed their Bonuses and the terms
and conditions, one of the conditions was if you took a bonus and lost your deposit &
matching funds any future deposit would be subject to the remaining rollover (ridiculous).
I recently read (skimmed) the T&C's and could no longer find such language.

Quote: rainman

WR= Wagering requirement. A few years back Bovada changed their Bonuses and the terms
and conditions, one of the conditions was if you took a bonus and lost your deposit &
matching funds any future deposit would be subject to the remaining rollover (ridiculous).
I recently read (skimmed) the T&C's and could no longer find such language.

If anyone knows or can find out, I would really like to know if you are on makeup if you lose before you finish all your WR's.

Quote: AxelWolf

For some reason, I cant get on BV anymore from LV, it says my area is restricted last time I checked.

I don't know how people in LV are making sports bets still?

When it says that it'll also say "If you're already a member click here" then it'll ask you to login and when you do it'll just forward you like normal to the main bovada page after you've logged in.