Want some info on my blackjack math please

Hi All. Happy New year to all!! Its my first post here. I am new to card counting. I have played blackjack in casinos before but stopped in 2017 due to travel and other priority works. I have taken time to learn card counting, practicing hi-lo, basic strategy and deviations (illustrious 18). By no means i am going to play blackjack as a profession. I have a full time job, and going to play blackjack for fun and possible as side income. I dont have defined bank roll at this moment but i am going to take around $1000 for my blackjack trip every weekend. I can replenish this trip bankroll. I have a casino 1 hr away and offer good DD and six deck. I am more interested in DD because it has around 60% or more as penetration and more exciting to me. 6 deck has only around 70% and rarely 80% depending on shifts. Rules for DD are S17, double on any 2 cards, bj pays 3:2, resplit to 4 hands, can double after split. House edge comes around 0.25532%. I am playing all the negative counts since it has no mid shoe entry. I am planning for the below 1-8 betting ramp one hand.

TC <= 1      $10
TC = 2        $20
TC=3          $40
TC=4          $60
TC>=5        $80

Planning to play 10 hrs every trip (weekend). Can someone please tell me how to calculate my EV, average bet, standard deviation, win rate, N0 and any other important bj math I am missing here? I read all 3 articles Romes wrote in this WoV forum a few times, but still cant able to do this calculation on my own. I am not big into math in my school days but would like to learn this bj math. I would really appreciate your inputs and help here.

Those seem like good conditions. Long May they last for You! You have 2 main issues, knowing your game, and keeping it.
For those numbers you asked, I usually look at this to get an idea: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/resourcespage.php?do=bjtfcharts
For longevity there are many different tactics. If this casino is the only one close enough to you.. what I would do is play there for a bit with very small spread, and rated. Establish yourself as a regular "gambler" and not an AP. Practice your counting skills, your deviations. Get on a first name basis with pit bosses, some will like you more than others, keep that information. And slowly increase your spread, always within the casino's and that specific pit boss's comfort zone. Keep an eye out for heat. You are much less likely to get backed off afterwards.
Acting as a gambler while counting takes some practice, and you wouldn't want to burn your best opportunity before you get there.
Best of luck

To be accurate you need cvcx software or else you can start true count frequency tables and punch them into an excel spreadsheet. Some books have all the stuff. Blackjack attack by don s has a bunch of tables. Base on the rules and spread I would guess it is about 15 an hour in ev with a n0 of like 20000 hands.

Hi blick, and welcome to the forums.

Given your unique situation, the main thing I'd recommend for now is two fold, one to raise your bet sooner (since you'll have a decent edge at TC +1 in that game), and two to have your max bet out sooner, especially on DD where the RC (and thus TC) will change on a whim. I'd suggest the following:

TC <= 0 = $10
TC +1 = $20
TC +2 = $40
TC +3 = $60
TC >= +4 = $80

If you really wanted to be aggressive you could up your bet to 30, 60, 90 at TC's +1, +2, and +3 respectively... Or even using your spread and maxing at TC +3 above instead of jumping to $60. TC +3 is generally the most important TC for the counter as that's when you get the biggest "bang for your buck." Thus it's generally when you'd like the biggest hike in your spread to be.

Next, just to point out, DD games are often quite sweatier than shoe games... especially one you mention with such good rules and low house edge. If you plan to play 10 hours every weekend (maybe 5 hours per day) it sounds like your plan is to "camp out" meaning you just sit and play for 5 hours. If they only have one DD table then maybe you could get away with this, but in my experience if you're any good at counting and you do this for 10 hours per weekend you're going to get nailed within your first couple trips. If this is just a hobby and you don't mind getting the back-off then oh well and go for it. If you ever plan to get deeper in to counting or AP'ing in general then this could bring you some concern since the place you play might put your name in some databases as a card counter, which would hurt your name at a lot of casinos that use those databases moving forward. So even if you went to another casino for an AP play that wasn't even blackjack related you could have some issues. Just some food for thought on the future.

Finally, as I'm a fan of teaching a man to fish instead of handing him a fish... you have a few options to calculate your hourly EV. One would be to purchase simulation software from QFIT (CVCX/CVData) which is really good and will probably be a bit over your head at first but it gives you the power to sim almost anything blackjack related (shoes, SD, DD, side bets, diff rules, diff PEN, etc, etc). Next, you don't have to do that and can get a good estimate by using some spreadsheets I created and posted publicly for others to use. Once you understand PENETRATION a lot more, so you understand that it changes the True Count frequencies, then you can change the spreadsheets for different PENs too, but in the mean time you can easily play with a bet spread for an "average" PEN and see what your hourly is given any particular game/HE.

Here's a link to my A-Z thread (which I would recommend reading the more IN DEPTH ARTICLES BELOW) where I linked my spreadsheets on Google Docs:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/19491-a-to-z-counting-cards-in-blackjack/5/#post483782

Here's the 3 articles that are available in the "articles" section of this site as well. I'd highly recommend you read these as even if you're a decent counter, there's always something more to learn and pick out from this compilation of information about card counting:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

No mid shoe entry doesn't mean you have to play all hands. If the shoe goes south, head to the bathroom, stand up and smoke, or just get up to stretch your legs. Be creative. You can't avoid all downturns but avoiding even a few an hour is good for long term results.

Thanks so much Romes. I was looking for the spreadsheet like this actually. I will play with it and see. I actually posted same question in other bj forum and someone ran cvcx simulation for me and told the optimal ramp for me will be $25 for Tc 1, $50 for Tc 2 and 3, $80 for Tc >=4. They suggested trip br as $2000 for ror 2%.

Also I am going for 2 deck because penetration not good in 6 deck

Quote: billryan

No mid shoe entry doesn't mean you have to play all hands. If the shoe goes south, head to the bathroom, stand up and smoke, or just get up to stretch your legs. Be creative. You can't avoid all downturns but avoiding even a few an hour is good for long term results.

You are right, but when I have played in my casino casually, and people get mad and frown me when I don't complete the shoe. What you think will be good Wong out count. Think TC -4? Please advice

Quote: blick

You are right, but when I have played in my casino casually, and people get mad and frown me when I don't complete the shoe. What you think will be good Wong out count. Think TC -4? Please advice

TC > -2 for DD. For shoe, usually TC < -1 is the wong out point for non "super aggressive" wongers (since it sounds like you're playing a little bit more of a camp out strategy - which is fine so long as the place isn't sweaty and you understand the risk of camping out a good HE DD game).

sounds like a juicy game, but you will need an 8k bankroll to sustain this sort of max bet.