A Humble Hello

Hello,

I am new to this forum, and more-so, am new to forums in general really. I have some questions I'd like to ask to everyone here who has some experience as an AP. I post in the Blackjack forum, because that it the only experience I have as an AP (but after perusing these forums I may be interested in other forms of AP such as VP) and I am certainly a novice AP. I'm sure I will jump in on other threads at some point, but feel it is most appropriate to introduce myself in my own thread.

If I haven't already lost you, I want to say I think everyone here has valuable knowledge/ opinions, and I am happy to hear from anyone who'd be willing to chime in. I've got so many questions, and know no APs in real life, so I'm going to just spew a bunch of questions here. With that said, I'll get to the questions I'd like to ask, and humbly thank you for your time; I appreciate it.

Just a few months ago, I stumbled upon some card counting articles online, and became intrigued. The articles made card counting sound interesting/challenging, and could reasonably become a career with as little as a $10,000 bankroll. I am intrigued by math, and would like to take money from the casinos that I consider to be greedy/ immoral, and proceeded to research card counting before buying into it. I've read books by Thorp, Wattenberger, Snyder, and Schessinger, and still find blackjack play to be quite intriguing, and am curious what the forum's opinion is on whether I would enjoy a life as an AP, or if I should just play BJ as a hobby.

I work a 40 hr/wk job, making about 35k/yr, have great benefits, and enjoy my job at about a 5/10. There are opportunities for small income increases, and changes in title that I believe I would enjoy at about a 8/10 that are definitely obtainable in the next year or so.

In the past 2 months, I've spent about 100 hours at the casinos in CO (which I saw no forum threads on) and overall am up about $600. I am interested in more advanced counting methods, but am currently using the hi/lo approach, and plan use it for the foreseeable future. The thing about Colorado casinos is that the maximum bet is $100 statewide, and most places have a $10 minimum for bj, so a 1-10 bet approach is the largest reasonable spread. Thus, I've been playing double deck primarily, and using a 1-10 spread as follows: <1 = $10, 1 = $25, 2 = $50, 3 = $75, 4+ = 100.

I've encountered other "counters" who would openly discuss their counting and their skills with the dealers an pit boss listening at a casino. The counter stated that everyone knows he counts, but the casino will not ban him from play until they "get their money back from him." This sounds like a load of crap to me, but admittedly his betting followed the count and he wonged very aggressively, sitting out the remainder of the shoe when the count was <-1.

1a. Do you think since the stakes are so low that the casino truly wouldn't care about counters? I've had pit bosses stare at my gameplay for what felt like an hour, but the tables are so bare that sometimes I'm the only one playing in the pit for them to watch.

1b. Are they watching out of boredom, or should I consider that "heat" and avoid playing alone in a pit?

2. Do casinos really spread info on card counters with other casinos? E.G. If I get caught counting in CO for these tiny stakes, would I possibly be recognized more quickly if I were to make a career of counting, and decide to move to Vegas or something?


I've got so many more questions, but to keep this post somewhat concise, I'll stop here and hope I've kept the attention of at least a few readers. I sincerely appreciate any and all feedback, and I've got thick skin so if I've said something that deserves criticism, please go right on ahead an tell me. I'm looking forward to joining this community.

-Bari

Quote: Baritonium

Hello,

I am new to this forum, and more-so, am new to forums in general really.

Hiya B and sincerest welcome to the forum.

Quote:

I have some questions I'd like to ask[
I've encountered other "counters" who would openly discuss their counting and their skills with the dealers an pit boss listening at a casino. The counter stated that everyone knows he counts, but the casino will not ban him from play until they "get their money back from him." This sounds like a load of crap to me, but admittedly his betting followed the count and he wonged very aggressively, sitting out the remainder of the shoe when the count was <-1.

1a. Do you think since the stakes are so low that the casino truly wouldn't care about counters? I've had pit bosses stare at my gameplay for what felt like an hour, but the tables are so bare that sometimes I'm the only one playing in the pit for them to watch.

1b. Are they watching out of boredom, or should I consider that "heat" and avoid playing alone in a pit?

2. Do casinos really spread info on card counters with other casinos? E.G. If I get caught counting in CO for these tiny stakes, would I possibly be recognized more quickly if I were to make a career of counting, and decide to move to Vegas or something?


I've got so many more questions, but to keep this post somewhat concise, I'll stop here and hope I've kept the attention of at least a few readers. I sincerely appreciate any and all feedback, and I've got thick skin so if I've said something that deserves criticism, please go right on ahead an tell me. I'm looking forward to joining this community.

-Bari

Well. making decent money Counting in Blackjack is an horrendously tough endeavour. Research here the posts by Stabworld and ZenKing. At best you will get an occasional edge of a percent or two, but to be confident of not being wiped out by variance will require many tens of thousands of bankroll and balls of steel. I understand that there are far more lucrative AP opportunities, which you will find if you check out posts by those guys and Romes and Axlewolf.
.
Just from experience here in the UK and what i read here, you will attract little heat till your wagers generally ramp up through $50. Maybe worse in Indian Casinoes
1. They do indeed often watch to pass the time away. If they see you building a pile of chips, they may start thinking.
The pit bosses here i the UK, (in my opinion) just realise they have a good player and think no more about it. though I seldom take more than a few hundred away from the table, so they don't care.
2: In the US, yes, Casinoes operate in chains and alert other members of the chain first. Prolific counters have teir Ids spread far and wide, pretty soon in their career unless they are clever. I play mostly on line and still managed to get banned from two casinoes when they realised my counting prowess.
Really. Enjoy counting, but it is a shit career.

Agree with the above. If you enjoy Blackjack and would play it anyway, then count, otherwise, I don't think it's a worthwhile endeavor, and that's for one reason: variance.
Now about your game,1-10 on DD isn't bad, it depends on the initial HE and also if you can spread to 2 hands of 100$ each, then you might have a pretty decent setting.
Don't worry about a better count than hi-lo for now, although I would recommend memorizing the index plays (starting with illustrious 18- fab 4 if you can surrender)
There are indeed far more lucrative AP opportunities, but info on those will be much harder to find, you will find many mentions of those online but no explanation. So it will require either networking or innovative thinking, in addition to a lot of scouting.
Keep in mind that gambling with an edge is still gambling. You improve your odds but you still might lose. As long as expectations are managed correctly it is a lot of fun.

Quote: OnceDear

Hiya B and sincerest welcome to the forum.

Thanks! Your 34 win streak is actually one of the threads I read before deciding to join these forums. I appreciate that you took the time to respond.

Quote: OnceDear

Well. making decent money Counting in Blackjack is an horrendously tough endeavour. Research here the posts by Stabworld and ZenKing.

Actually, I read both of their threads too, ironically. All 144 pages (and counting) of ZK's thread.. I have many thoughts on his thread and may post over there, but would prefer not to have any of the discussion from that thread brought over here.

Quote: OnceDear

But I'm afraid At best you will get an occasional edge of a percent or two, but to be confident of not being wiped out by variance will require many tens of thousands of bankroll and balls of steel. I understand that there are far more lucrative AP opportunities, which you will find if you check out posts by those guys and Romes and Axlewolf.

I will certainly look for those posts. Both of those guys appear to be very supportive, patient and empathetic.

Quote: OnceDear

Just from experience here in the UK and what i read here, you will attract little heat till your wagers generally ramp up through $50. Maybe worse in Indian Casinoes
1. They do indeed often watch to pass the time away. If they see you building a pile of chips, they may start thinking.
The pit bosses here i the UK, (in my opinion) just realise they have a good player and think no more about it. though I seldom take more than a few hundred away from the table, so they don't care.
2: In the US, yes, Casinoes operate in chains and alert other members of the chain first. Prolific counters have teir Ids spread far and wide, pretty soon in their career unless they are clever. I play mostly on line and still managed to get banned from two casinoes when they realised my counting prowess.
Really. Enjoy counting, but it is a shit career.

Thank you again for the insight. I agree that it might be a shit career to only count cards at blackjack, but I am more curious if the typical AP Career as a whole is also shit, or if it can actually be pretty nice. Based on what I've read in other posts, Axelwolf, Romes, and others in the blackjack section of this forum primarily earn from exploiting other plays which are more advantageous than counting at blackjack tables. It seems that many APs start by counting cards until they find better plays, and eventually don't spend that much time counting cards.

Currently, I am counting cards as a hobby. Like I said, I've got a full time job, and honestly I've got a lot going for me (27 yr with up to 35k bankroll- most of which is tied up in my home, but could sell the home if necessary for a career change). The thing is, this hobby appeals to me so much that I'm trying to determine if I'd rather do it (all forms of AP play, not just card counting) as a career instead of a hobby.

I used to be an avid video game player, and wished that I were skilled enough to become a professional video game player or had the personality to stream video game gameplay for a living, but never was good enough/ put enough effort into making that succeed. I feel a similar 'rush' when playing casino games for real money as I do when playing an intense video game. I'm wondering if anyone relates to that, and if they have experienced that after becoming a professional counter/AP then 'playing' casino games becomes boring/mundane like a normal 9-5 job. Or does it continue to excite?

Quote: tyler498

Agree with the above. If you enjoy Blackjack and would play it anyway, then count, otherwise, I don't think it's a worthwhile endeavor, and that's for one reason: variance.
Now about your game,1-10 on DD isn't bad, it depends on the initial HE and also if you can spread to 2 hands of 100$ each, then you might have a pretty decent setting.

The DD games I've found do not allow mid-shoe entry. They also have a rule that if you play 2 hands, you must bet at least 2x table minimum, and if you play 3 hands you must play 5x table minimum. The rules are S17, DAS, no surrender, no RSA. Oh, and I should mention the penetration is roughly 55-65%, varying greatly based on who is dealing. Because of those rules, I've found that I like to start a new shoe with 2 hands at $25 each, and if the count goes negative I drop to 1 hand at $10 but if the count goes positive I can start betting more on both hands. Playing with a $5000 bankroll, I've attempted to maximize EV, while trying to keep RoR below 20%. If you or anyone else believes I'm off in my betting strategy, or has a more sound approach I would be glad to hear it.

Quote: tyler498

Don't worry about a better count than hi-lo for now, although I would recommend memorizing the index plays (starting with illustrious 18- fab 4 if you can surrender)
There are indeed far more lucrative AP opportunities, but info on those will be much harder to find, you will find many mentions of those online but no explanation. So it will require either networking or innovative thinking, in addition to a lot of scouting.
Keep in mind that gambling with an edge is still gambling. You improve your odds but you still might lose. As long as expectations are managed correctly it is a lot of fun.

I agree that further AP play would require a tremendous amount of networking, because I cannot identify an advantageous play yet. This is another reason why I decided to join this forum, in hopes of building new relationships. The thing that inspired me the most in reading through ZK's thread was that so many people are willing to help him. I'm nowhere near being mentally ready to move to Vegas and start an AP career, but if I someday choose to do so, I figure it would be great to feel like I know a few people before doing so :)

The setting is pretty good, this DD game has an initial HE of -0.25% which is great. It usually thus carries a lot of heat with it in Vegas if you spread aggressively, but considering the 100$ max bet where you play I doubt you'd get a lot of sweat.
Why would you start with 2 hands? are you not allowed to spread to 2 once you start with one? because that alone is like -1.5 to -2$/h to your EV since you'll play a lot of shoes per hour on a DD.
In order to have a good EV counting you'd need to be aggressive, and on a DD that gets pretty obvious. I would ride it as long as it lasts but don't sell the house just yet, you might get backed off at any moment.. or maybe not.
Finding the compromise between longevity and EV is up to each AP. I never cared about longevity, I spread to 1-20, 1-30 even.. split the 10s when I should, do all the index plays without any cover, count the side bets.. and best of all, always play rated so I get tons of comps and match plays which add considerably to my EV. This to me is the only way counting cards is worthwhile. If you take out the match plays, the free food/drinks and other comps, and add some cover plays it's just not worth it anymore, so I've been playing like someone begging to be backed off and interestingly never got any heat ever!!! some people get backed off barely spreading 1 hour in... so it's definitely not a stable situation.
What I'm trying to say is keep your 35k a year 9-to 5 job, especially since you mentioned this might improve soon. And AP on the side. I'd much rather have that than 60K a year in EV with variance, backoffs and stress.
If at some point you find much better AP opportunites then that's another story. Just don't drop everything and jump in APing expecting to fall in the wonderland

Quote: tyler498

Why would you start with 2 hands? are you not allowed to spread to 2 once you start with one? because that alone is like -1.5 to -2$/h to your EV since you'll play a lot of shoes per hour on a DD.

Correct, they consider spreading to two hands equivalent to a mid shoe entry, so you cannot spread to more hands after the first deal but you can always drop to fewer hands. With that said, do you think it's wise to start with two hands, so I can effectively spread from 10 to 2x100, or do you think it would be better just to spread from 10 to 100 on a single hand? Alternatively, I've commonly seen that DD should be played at a 1-4 spread at most, so possibly just a 25 to 100 spread.

Quote: tyler498

In order to have a good EV counting you'd need to be aggressive, and on a DD that gets pretty obvious. I would ride it as long as it lasts but don't sell the house just yet, you might get backed off at any moment.. or maybe not.

As I've gained more experience I've been spreading bets more aggressively and no longer using cover (i.e. only increasing bets after wins, decreasing bets after losses). I guess it makes sense to make the most of the opportunity i've got and not worry about backoffs, because at the moment it is just a side-gig anyway. If my longevity is suddenly terminated, I suppose I could find another hobby more easily than finding a new career... Certainly not looking to sell my house yet, in fact saying this in a public forum makes me feel like all this should have been easy for me to see, but honestly I was very unsure of what I wanted to do moving forward.

As for playing rated and getting comps, I'm surprised how quickly i've watched my mail offers increase from $5 promo chips per casino (I play at 3 casinos) to $30+ per casino per week. Because I only have access to a few casinos, I've encountered most of the pit bosses already, and several of them know me by name. So it's not a matter of trying not to be recognized, just trying not to get backed off. To give you an idea of how few table players there are, I've won 2 drawings already for a total of an additional $225 promo chips and this is with less than 100 hours logged. I've been pleasantly surprised with how well they comp for blackjack play here. Maybe the comps are typical, but they're certainly more than I was anticipating.

-Bari

For the rules in the game I mentioned (Double Deck, S17, DAS, no insurance, no resplit aces) I've found the basic strategy chart (which is what i've been using) but would like to know the index numbers for the illustrious 18.

I've found index numbers for 6 deck shoes, but I believe the indexes would be different for the double deck game. Can anyone point me toward the correct index numbers? The BS i'm using is The Wizards' Double-Deck Blackjack Strategy, found here: https:// wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/2-decks/

and the indexes I've found are listed at the bottom here (link redacted)

Quote: Baritonium

For the rules in the game I mentioned (Double Deck, S17, DAS, no insurance, no resplit aces) I've found the basic strategy chart (which is what i've been using) but would like to know the index numbers for the illustrious 18.

I've found index numbers for 6 deck shoes, but I believe the indexes would be different for the double deck game. Can anyone point me toward the correct index numbers? The BS i'm using is The Wizards' Double-Deck Blackjack Strategy, found here: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/2-decks/

and the indexes I've found are listed at the bottom of here (link redacted )

I reposted so your WoO link would work. Sorry, no outside links until you've been here a bit longer.

Oh, okay I understand. You acted so quickly I thought I must have violated some rule. Thanks for your assistance.

Welcome!

Counting is a great starter into AP. As time progresses you will learn more and see other opportunities. Less than $100 max bet stakes counting won’t generate too much heat from casinos, but overtime if you are a winning player you will get the boot almost no matter the stakes. Could probably get hundreds of hours in before the casino would become concerned. Casinos do share info on players through a few different networks. It is worth some money to stay out of the ‘book’. It isn’t actually a book anymore and all electronic sharing of liscenses, pictures, and other tidbits.

Hi Baritonium, and welcome to the forums.

So it sounds like you're having a good intriguing start to blackjack. Well, any start that isn't down 1SD-2SD down is a good start I suppose =). My opinion (without knowing you too thoroughly) is that as of now you should stick to your job, go for that title/money promotion, and see how you like that life. That doesn't mean you can't still count part time as a hobby and try to make a little extra cash. A lot of times a significant other will either hinder or expedite your new hobby, so if you have one then the more time you start to put in to blackjack (after working 40 hours per week) the more of a need for a conversation about it you'll have. Then they can decide if it's something they want to be a part of (2 man teams of significant others can be a lot of fun and more profitable than 1 counter).

The $100 max is rough, though with DD 1-10 is plenty of a spread... though with DD usually that comes with more heat. Do you typically play a camp out strategy where you go to the casino, sit at the DD table, and play for a few hours till you leave? Do you wong out at any TC? Do you go on the same day(s) and/or at similar times/shifts?

As far as your questions, I'd throw out the following answers from my experiences:

1a. Some PB's will always care, and some will never, it really depends from casino to casino. If you're in a sweaty casino, like the El Cortez in las vegas, then they will watch their $5 game like hawks and back people off whom aren't even counting but just winning (lol). I've also been to other casinos where I spread $25-$500 with literally ZERO cover and they never even batted an eye. So whether or not the casino cares about counters will differ from casino to casino. Over time you'll notice how much they're paying attention, and for the vastly different reasons (some good some bad) and you'll be able to feel out what a casinos "tolerance" to your counting is.

1b. They'll watch for a lot of reasons... Usually boredom, but again, this is pretty variable. Do they only come over when you have your max bet out? Maybe they're sweating the action? Maybe they think you're a higher better and they want to "schmooze" you? Again, this comes with the "heat detector" skill that you will hone over time. Essentially I'd recommend going on a trip to somewhere you won't frequent too often (even vegas would be good for your level/etc). Play HARD, and get backed off at a place or two. Once you have that experience you'll notice what they did when they started to sweat you. You'll notice the chain of events of PB sweating, the phone calls, staring at you, additional pit bosses, and then the tap. Again, this isn't ALWAYS the case. I got backed off on a random scouting trip a week or so ago and we never had ANYYYYYYYYY heat until we just got the tap and a polite "no more blackjack." So while it "sounds" like they were watching out of boredom in your case, we don't really know. Could have been bored. You could have been camping out (see questions above about session/timing) and they could have been taking a notice to you, etc. One way to know what the heat is like at any casino is to play HARD and not care and see what they do. If you can find a place that doesn't mind you betting your min to max, that place can be great to get a ton of good hours at...

2. Some do, some don't. It again, like the other answers, varies from casino to casino. If you're near a cluster of casinos (like a few casinos within 1 hour of each other) then they might just call each other up, or send a flyer with your picture to each other if one of them backs you off. In my experience I've found most casinos don't do this, and especially won't do this for your level of play (red chipper). HOWEVER, that doesn't mean some particularly sweaty shops won't put you in the databases and pass your information around. In case you didn't know (since you didn't mention) there are databases casinos can subscribe to like SIN, OSN, and formerly Griffin (if you've heard of the MIT story). Casinos that subscribe to these all pass in information (pictures/names/etc) of "undesirables" to casinos. These have cheats, drunks, etc, but also they consider counters as "undesirables." Thus, if you get backed off at a property that uses one of these networks, they may add your name/picture to the network. Then any other casino that uses them as well will automatically have you flagged if you go there and try to get a players card/play. At your level though (red chips) you should have no problem getting away with playing unrated (if you had to - for red chippers I think there's some value to trying to get mailers/food/hotel rooms by playing rated).

Feel free to keep the questions coming, and if you're interested in continued reading about blackjack, the math, and other situations (such as backoffs, etc) feel free to check out my 3 articles hosted here locally on the Wizard of Vegas site:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/