I played a BJ promotion and this is what happened
now that it is ended the results are as follows:
I earned 12 match plays ($100 each)
of the 12 match plays, I won 3 and lost 9 :(
In addition to that, I lost $1800 playing 2x$25 over about 1000ish hand. (I think expected loss was someplace around 200 due to my wonging)
so I walked away down $2400 in total (almost my entire bankroll)
I'm only posting this because I know a lot of people think BJ card counting and promotions are a near sure-fire-way to win, and I just wanted to leave a record of my short story that the swings are intense and new people should be ready for the real possibility that things don't always go your way.
Perhaps use different counting system or just don't count at all.
Play: -1800
MP: Win 3, lose 9. That's +600 and -900 = -300.
Overall: -2100 or -2400?
Unless you got splits and doubles and could only do $100 on those, in which case you'd have had to have gotten 3 of them within those 9.
Quote: Bondy3I'm only posting this because I know a lot of people think BJ card counting and promotions are a near sure-fire-way to win, and I just wanted to leave a record of my short story that the swings are intense and new people should be ready for the real possibility that things don't always go your way.
Betting $50 per hand, you lost an average of $150 per hour. Most would call that mild, not intense
You should send this post to Zen King through Private message.Quote: Bondy3I was very excited to find a BJ promotion that I thought was profitable! The casino had a shoe game with a HE of about 0.5% and they said that if I play for at least an hour for at least 2x$25 or 1x$50, I will earn a $100 match play, (this casino is about 5 minutes from a place I go regularly so it's not out of my way at all) I set aside a bankroll of $2500 for this promotion, counted cards, flat-betted but stayed out when the running count was -5 or worse, I played vanilla basic strategy for the entire promotion.
now that it is ended the results are as follows:
I earned 12 match plays ($100 each)
of the 12 match plays, I won 3 and lost 9 :(
In addition to that, I lost $1800 playing 2x$25 over about 1000ish hand. (I think expected loss was someplace around 200 due to my wonging)
so I walked away down $2400 in total (almost my entire bankroll)
I'm only posting this because I know a lot of people think BJ card counting and promotions are a near sure-fire-way to win, and I just wanted to leave a record of my short story that the swings are intense and new people should be ready for the real possibility that things don't always go your way.
You’re talking about the general public. The people here understand variance.Quote: Bondy3I'm only posting this because I know a lot of people think BJ card counting and promotions are a near sure-fire-way to win...
Sorry for your bad luck. But I gotta wonder if your flat betting helped or hurt.
Quote: RSYour math ain't adding up.
Play: -1800
MP: Win 3, lose 9. That's +600 and -900 = -300.
Overall: -2100 or -2400?
Unless you got splits and doubles and could only do $100 on those, in which case you'd have had to have gotten 3 of them within those 9.
very good point,
I had one match play where I was delt 8-8 against a 6, I split and got 10 and 11, I doubled both and lost, thats where the extra 300 comes from. I should have put that in my post last night but I was really tired
Quote: DJTeddyBearYou’re talking about the general public. The people here understand variance.
Sorry for your bad luck. But I gotta wonder if your flat betting helped or hurt.
I think flat betting helped keep the variance low, if I was spreading 2x25 to 2x100 or something like that, I would have attracted attention (I like playing here, and they already half-shoed me at their other casino location, I don't want that to happen here) I think flat betting and then wonging is better for lowering exposure than spreading.
Quote: TomGBetting $50 per hand, you lost an average of $150 per hour. Most would call that mild, not intense
I no longer have the stomach for pro-gambling, when I was in my twenties I took my 5k savings and spread 25 - 2x300 at my local casino, wonging in at TC=1, I turned 5k into 10k in the span of a couple sessions then upped my max bet to 2x$500 because I had a larger bankroll, then I lost the entire 10k over the next few sessions. I felt fine with a 60% RoR because I thought "it wont happen to me" I learned about variance the hard way.
Quote: Bondy3I was very excited to find a BJ promotion that I thought was profitable! The casino had a shoe game with a HE of about 0.5% and they said that if I play for at least an hour for at least 2x$25 or 1x$50, I will earn a $100 match play, (this casino is about 5 minutes from a place I go regularly so it's not out of my way at all) I set aside a bankroll of $2500 for this promotion, counted cards, flat-betted but stayed out when the running count was -5 or worse, I played vanilla basic strategy for the entire promotion.
now that it is ended the results are as follows:
I earned 12 match plays ($100 each)
of the 12 match plays, I won 3 and lost 9 :(
In addition to that, I lost $1800 playing 2x$25 over about 1000ish hand. (I think expected loss was someplace around 200 due to my wonging)
so I walked away down $2400 in total (almost my entire bankroll)
I'm only posting this because I know a lot of people think BJ card counting and promotions are a near sure-fire-way to win, and I just wanted to leave a record of my short story that the swings are intense and new people should be ready for the real possibility that things don't always go your way.
I don't really understand much of what you're describing because these numbers are coming out kind of strange. I'm going to break down what I can.
Okay, so you said you played about 1,000 hands, but you earned 12 total MP's, so we're looking at 83.33 HPH, which seems pretty reasonable. Although, that was playing two hands at a time, so that would actually be half as many dealer hands, which would be 41.67 HPH. That seems kind of slow, but depending on how many people at the table, and your ability to artificially slow the game down to some extent...
Okay, if you look at a Blackjack game (and knowing the specific rules and not a guesstimate house edge would help) and you're playing 1,000 hands at 2*25, again, I don't know if you mean 1,000 hands or 1,000 rounds. If just 1,000 total hands, then that is still $25,000 in total bets, so an actual loss of 1800/25000 = 0.072 or 7.2% running across 1,000 hands. Now, Blackjack isn't my forte, but if you have splits and doubles not breaking in your favor...it just doesn't seem like an awful result. If you mean rounds, half that, actual loss of 3.6%, which isn't outside of the norm at all...either just inside or outside 2SD, I believe.
In terms of overall results, your Match Plays would have a value of roughly half of the face value, so a little under $50 each. If you want to look at how much you are playing per hour, based on that 41.67 dealer HPH, then you are betting $2,083.5/hour, which * .005 = $10.42 expected loss. In other words, under those parameters, you would have a profit expectation of slightly under $40/hour. Now, if we're talking 83.33 dealer HPH, now your expected loss doubles to $20.84 and you're looking at an hourly expected profit of about $29.
Either way, your expected profit per hour comes out to be less than the total amount you're laying out in an individual round.
I think perhaps even more than wonging out, my advice would be to try to artificially slow the game down as much as possible if this goes by per hour played. Either that or go in with a greater bankroll and bet more during positive counts. Or both. Either way, I think it would be a good idea to maximize the value of potentially +EV hands as well as to play -EV hands more slowly.
So all results aside, I am wondering why you would play this in the first place. If you were flat betting and playing basic strategy (no index plays) I assume you only used counting for the sake of wonging?
At 50$ a hand with that house edge you might have had a +EV overall, but not nearly enough to justify the huge variance. Each match play is worth about 45$ I'd say (roughly) since you can't double it, get even money on BJ and on splits goes only to the first hand. And requires a bet that's effectively about 145$ then, which adds to the variance.
You definitively just had a bad run, and money can be made with this promotion but the risk to reward doesn't seem very interesting to me. Unless you count and vary your bet..etc then the match play is just an extra.
Edit: was writing this at the same time as the above comment, thus the redundancy.
Quote: Mission146Yeah, that's why I want to determine how many HPH he actually played. I would also like to know the specific rules so that we can get an exact HE on the game. I want to figure out his hourly expected loss on the Base Game against the value of his MP's to get not only to an expected profit-per-hour, but also to determine what his actual % Player Advantage is based on the total $$$ exposed to the base game.
the game is very slow, I only play at a table with 3+ other people and most people at this casino like to play all 3 of the side bets, realistically I don't think I'm doing more than 45 rounds per hour (90 hands per hour) Also the dealers are just really slow.
I think 1000 hands could have actually been a slight over-estimate on how many hands I played.
Actual house advantage of 0.42%, game is played with 6 deck shoe, penetration is to about 50-70 cards, varries by dealer. variance per hand is 1.63
Quote: tyler498Some pretty bad variance indeed. To quote the Wizard: "It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."
So all results aside, I am wondering why you would play this in the first place. If you were flat betting and playing basic strategy (no index plays) I assume you only used counting for the sake of wonging?
At 50$ a hand with that house edge you might have had a +EV overall, but not nearly enough to justify the huge variance. Each match play is worth about 45$ I'd say (roughly) since you can't double it, get even money on BJ and on splits goes only to the first hand. And requires a bet that's effectively about 145$ then, which adds to the variance.
You definitively just had a bad run, and money can be made with this promotion but the risk to reward doesn't seem very interesting to me. Unless you count and vary your bet..etc then the match play is just an extra.
Edit: was writing this at the same time as the above comment, thus the redundancy.
I was only counting for the sake of wonging,
I realize that this isn't really worth the time to play this promotion, but I get mental value out of playing and I like the staff at this casino. Also I find it interesting to watch the people playing baccarat for 3k/hand (3k is the table limit for bac at this casino)
Quote: Bondy3the game is very slow, I only play at a table with 3+ other people and most people at this casino like to play all 3 of the side bets, realistically I don't think I'm doing more than 45 rounds per hour (90 hands per hour) Also the dealers are just really slow.
I think 1000 hands could have actually been a slight over-estimate on how many hands I played.
Actual house advantage of 0.42%, game is played with 6 deck shoe, penetration is to about 50-70 cards, varries by dealer. variance per hand is 1.63
I mean, if you're at a 90 HPH table and ended up with 12 MP at 1 MP per hour, then you're at 1,080 hands. Any idea roughly what percentage of the time you hit TC -5 and Wong out?
Okay, so let's take (1080 * .0042 * 25) = $113.40 total expected base loss.
$9.45 expected base loss per hour.
Now, we look at the value of the Match Play at:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
46.2%, which assumes:
Six decks
Double after split allowed
Resplitting aces allowed
Surrender not allowed
Blackjack pays 3 to 2 on all chips
On a match play, player may double or split only cash portion of wager.
Assuming those are the rules, though it doesn't matter all that much, each MP is worth $46.20.
You have a positive expectation of about $46.20-$9.45 = $36.75/hour
We know that you played about 90 HPH at the house edge, which means you would have exposed roughly $2,250 to the HE since it is based on initial bet. That being the case, you had an expected return of about 2286.75 on that, so 2286.75/2250 = 101.6333%
In other words, you had a 1.6333% advantage. It would be good to know what your precise loss was that we would could add the $554.40 value of the twelve MP's in and then figure out what percentage you ran to the bad with more accuracy.
When you count mail and other things, you may well have had a pretty healthy advantage there. In terms of Blackjack, a 1.6333% advantage is pretty good, anyway. That's assuming you played perfectly, of course, so I don't know what it means when you say, "Vanilla."
In the end, your overall advantage is still only about 1.47 hands (base bets) per hour. Again, that's going to be a pretty nice advantage at 90 HPH, but it's still less than what you are betting in an individual round.
Quote: Mission146I mean, if you're at a 90 HPH table and ended up with 12 MP at 1 MP per hour, then you're at 1,080 hands. Any idea roughly what percentage of the time you hit TC -5 and Wong out?
Okay, so let's take (1080 * .0042 * 25) = $113.40 total expected base loss.
$9.45 expected base loss per hour.
Now, we look at the value of the Match Play at:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
46.2%, which assumes:
Six decks
Double after split allowed
Resplitting aces allowed
Surrender not allowed
Blackjack pays 3 to 2 on all chips
On a match play, player may double or split only cash portion of wager.
Assuming those are the rules, though it doesn't matter all that much, each MP is worth $46.20.
You have a positive expectation of about $46.20-$9.45 = $36.75/hour
We know that you played about 90 HPH at the house edge, which means you would have exposed roughly $2,250 to the HE since it is based on initial bet. That being the case, you had an expected return of about 2286.75 on that, so 2286.75/2250 = 101.6333%
In other words, you had a 1.6333% advantage. It would be good to know what your precise loss was that we would could add the $554.40 value of the twelve MP's in and then figure out what percentage you ran to the bad with more accuracy.
When you count mail and other things, you may well have had a pretty healthy advantage there. In terms of Blackjack, a 1.6333% advantage is pretty good, anyway. That's assuming you played perfectly, of course, so I don't know what it means when you say, "Vanilla."
In the end, your overall advantage is still only about 1.47 hands (base bets) per hour. Again, that's going to be a pretty nice advantage at 90 HPH, but it's still less than what you are betting in an individual round.
just looked in my wallet, I lost $2,412.5 (pretty sure this is exactly what I lost)
I wonged out at RC -5 (not TC), I was using standard hi-lo but I don't like converting to TC from RC, I wonged out quite a bit, id say 1/3 of shoes, I would re-enter the shoe if the RC got back to -4
by vanilla I mean I played with perfect basic strategy but no index plays (I have it 100% memorized)
since we are getting into the nitty gritty, there was one point when the RC hit +15 (about 1/3 of the way through the shoe) and everyone else left the table so I was allowed to spread to as many hands as I wanted to, so I spread to 6x$25 because I never get a chance to do that and I was excited to it. I did that for the rest of the shoe and the RC never went back down below 5. that was really fun, It was REALLY REALLY exciting to play 6 hands
Quote: Bondy3just looked in my wallet, I lost $2,412.5 (pretty sure this is exactly what I lost)
I wonged out at RC -5 (not TC), I was using standard hi-lo but I don't like converting to TC from RC, I wonged out quite a bit, id say 1/3 of shoes, I would re-enter the shoe if the RC got back to -4
by vanilla I mean I played with perfect basic strategy but no index plays (I have it 100% memorized)
since we are getting into the nitty gritty, there was one point when the RC hit +15 (about 1/3 of the way through the shoe) and everyone else left the table so I was allowed to spread to as many hands as I wanted to, so I spread to 6x$25 because I never get a chance to do that and I was excited to it. I did that for the rest of the shoe and the RC never went back down below 5. that was really fun, It was REALLY REALLY exciting to play 6 hands
Okay, so you lost $201.04/hour, against an expected win of roughly $36.75/hour. We established that you had an expected win of 1.6333% and you lost roughly 2050/2250 = 91.111% return, so 8.889% loss per hour.
The difference between expectation and result, therefore, is 10.52%.
We're going to say you started with a bankroll of $2,450, which is 98 units. We're going to use this simulator:
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm
I'll set it to NETENT standard Blackjack with a house edge of 0.4% to account for your wonging out partially.
We're going to do this:
Deposit: 98 Units (This is just your bankroll)
Bonus: 12 Units (This is the value of the Match Plays)
Wagering: 1,080 (Total Hands)
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 10,000
It says you would bust out about 0.19% of the time with an average return of +7.94 units, the difference owing partially to the reduced HE being assumed. The SD appears to be +/- 35.3 units, so we end up with: (35.3 * 3) - 7.94 = 3SD -97.96.
So, you ran terribly, but you're still within 3SD of expectation, for what that's worth. Now, the standard deviation obviously goes up a little if I increase the bankroll to 200 units ($5,000) because you never bust out, then.
Anyway, it appears to be within 3SD, even if narrowly when we figure in real world stuff.
I don't know how things went on that six hand spread, but it's obviously pretty highly correlated with how strong the dealer's hand was. Doesn't really matter in House Edge terms, I'm just going to go with your assumptions.
Quote: Mission146Okay, so you lost $201.04/hour, against an expected win of roughly $36.75/hour. We established that you had an expected win of 1.6333% and you lost roughly 2050/2250 = 91.111% return, so 8.889% loss per hour.
The difference between expectation and result, therefore, is 10.52%.
We're going to say you started with a bankroll of $2,450, which is 98 units. We're going to use this simulator:
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm
I'll set it to NETENT standard Blackjack with a house edge of 0.4% to account for your wonging out partially.
We're going to do this:
Deposit: 98 Units (This is just your bankroll)
Bonus: 12 Units (This is the value of the Match Plays)
Wagering: 1,080 (Total Hands)
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 10,000
It says you would bust out about 0.19% of the time with an average return of +7.94 units, the difference owing partially to the reduced HE being assumed. The SD appears to be +/- 35.3 units, so we end up with: (35.3 * 3) - 7.94 = 3SD -97.96.
So, you ran terribly, but you're still within 3SD of expectation, for what that's worth. Now, the standard deviation obviously goes up a little if I increase the bankroll to 200 units ($5,000) because you never bust out, then.
Anyway, it appears to be within 3SD, even if narrowly when we figure in real world stuff.
I don't know how things went on that six hand spread, but it's obviously pretty highly correlated with how strong the dealer's hand was. Doesn't really matter in House Edge terms, I'm just going to go with your assumptions.
thanks for running the numbers for me, I'm not sure if I should feel better or worse knowing that I'm 3SD below expected.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThose damned pre-shuffled, rigged, Chinese decks sure do get around!
its a shuffle machine, but I dont think its rigged, I think I just had sh!t luck, but the shuffle machine did malfunction once, and the dealer had to hand shuffle a shoe, she looked like she had almost forgotten how to hand shuffle and took several minutes, was pretty amusing
Quote: Bondy3its a shuffle machine, but I dont think its rigged, I think I just had sh!t luck, but the shuffle machine did malfunction once, and the dealer had to hand shuffle a shoe, she looked like she had almost forgotten how to hand shuffle and took several minutes, was pretty amusing
I'm 100% certain that nothing was rigged. But if you've been reading any of Zenkings blackjack threads, you'll get the joke. 😉
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm 100% certain that nothing was rigged. But if you've been reading any of Zenkings blackjack threads, you'll get the joke. 😉
ooohhh yeah I do get it, I just found that thread this morning and I have been going through it, I think I am about 1/4 of the way through it, its like a book I am enjoying reading it
Played 40 x 2 hands per hour at $25 per hand, 0.5 % HE. Standard deviation 1.35 per hand. Match play value $45.
Expectation (excluding match plays) after 12 hours is 960 x 25 x 0.5% = - $120.
Standard deviation 960 ^ .5 x 1.35 = $1,045.
At - $1800 you are 1.61 deviations to the left of expectations. Personally I consider anything within 2 deviations as normal day-to-day variance. About 5 % of results will fall outside.
Expected advantage with match play $45 / (40 x 2 x 25) - 0.5% = 1.75%. It’s a nice promotion and I would also play it at 2 x $25 all weekend. But 1000 hands is nowhere near enough to overcome the variance and confidently expect a profit.
Quote: Ace2The numbers (slightly rounded) I come with are:
Played 40 x 2 hands per hour at $25 per hand, 0.5 % HE. Standard deviation 1.35 per hand. Match play value $45.
Expectation (excluding match plays) after 12 hours is 960 x 25 x 0.5% = - $120.
Standard deviation 960 ^ .5 x 1.35 = $1,045.
At - $1800 you are 1.61 deviations to the left of expectations. Personally I consider anything within 2 deviations as normal day-to-day variance.
Expected advantage with match play $45 - 40 x 2 x 25 * .5% = 1.75%. It’s a nice promotion and I would also play it at 2 x $25 all weekend. But 1000 hands is nowhere near enough to overcome the variance and confidently expect a profit.
its Fri Sat Sun Mon, that's how I got 12, I did it for the full 3 weeks
its not a promotion thats going to make me rich, but I feel like its a good little boost to EV
I would not play this promotion for more than 500 hands if it's a place I regularly play at.
Quote: horsePlay a promotion with card counting for 1000 hands and you put yourself in the hands of luck.
http://dilbert.com/strip/2017-12-11
Quote: horsePlay a promotion with card counting for 1000 hands and you put yourself in the hands of luck. Play it much more than that and chances go higher that you will be asked to leave.
I would not play this promotion for more than 500 hands if it's a place I regularly play at.
I dont think that they will ask me to leave, especially because I am strictly flat betting, but I think that they might stop allowing me to get the $100 matchplays though... do you think that they have figured me out as an AP?
I think you are asking the wrong person.Quote: Bondy3I dont think that they will ask me to leave, especially because I am strictly flat betting, but I think that they might stop allowing me to get the $100 matchplays though... do you think that they have figured me out as an AP?
Quote: AxelWolfI think you are asking the wrong person.
Such a brilliant response.
Axel wolf, please take this advice: when you don't know something for sure and you still feel you must create some kind of conflict, try backing yourself off of the topic. I'm not your gf or wife.
Bondy3, flat betting where you are a familiar face alone shouldn't get you recognized as an ap. It's the card counting that would, and it's difficult to hide that as a regular.
Quote: horseSuch a brilliant response.
Axel wolf, please take this advice: when you don't know something for sure and you still feel you must create some kind of conflict, try backing yourself off of the topic. I'm not your gf or wife.
Bondy3, flat betting where you are a familiar face alone shouldn't get you recognized as an ap. It's the card counting that would, and it's difficult to hide that as a regular.
how could they know I was counting, other than the fact that I was wonging
Quote: Bondy3how could they know I was counting, other than the fact that I was wonging
I and several others who know what they're doing have been backed off at several casinos for counting. axel and his "bro" might disagree, but do they really play bj?
Straight from the horse's _ _ _.Quote: horseI and several others who know what they're doing have been backed off at several casinos for counting. axel and his "bro" might disagree, but do they really play bj?
who's my "bro"?
Please name anyone on this or any forum that's ever even seen you in a casino.
Or might that give you away?
Quote: AxelWolfStraight from the horse's _ _ _.
who's my "bro"?
Please name anyone on this or any forum that's ever even seen you in a casino.
Or might that give you away?
He might be making reference to me I called you bro
for the heads up about him trolling in the shooting
thread I almost fell for it. He is clearly all violated about
it now.
Quote: AxelWolfStraight from the horse's _ _ _.
who's my "bro"?
Please name anyone on this or any forum that's ever even seen you in a casino.
Or might that give you away?
Like you and most here and on other forums, I prefer to remain anonymous. As such, it is illogical to expect someone to know or name others who have seen me in any of the world's casinos.
One point I've gleaned thus far: you seem to enjoy antagonizing. How's it working for you?
~1000 hands = 1000/12 hph = ~83 hands per hour.
This seems like it should be ~83 ROUNDS per hour, which if you're playing 2 hands would be doubled to 166 hands per hour. Otherwise the game was a slow dogs pace of blistering ~42 rounds per hour.
1) IF you got ~1000 hands "total" your negative EV from the ~.5% HE game is: EV = (1000*25)*(-.005) = -$125
2) I think this is more likely... that your EV = (2000*25)*(-.005) = -$250
Even if we take 'average' SD of 1.15...
AvgBet = $25
OriginalSD = 1.15*25 = 28.75
1) SD(1,000 hands) = Sqrt(1000)*28.75 = $909.15... 2SD = $1818... thus you should expect to lose -$125 +/- $1818... so you could run as bad as -$1943.31, on just the BJ play.
2) SD(2,000 hands) = Sqrt(2000)*28.75 = $1285.74... 2SD = $2571.48... thus you could expect to lose -$250 +/- $2571... so you could run bad as -$2821.48, on just the BJ play.
