Understanding why counting doesn't work

Bank roll issues you will run out of funds before you see your long term Edge
your blackjacks splits and dd will not be successful im the short term
the high cards favor you as much as the dealer (your opponent)
waiting for a positive return on a high count is almost the same as a royal flush in 9/6 JoB
And finally collecting all the information from various websites on counting forums dating back now and 10 years ago it seems there is no hope for the average joe like me or you to double there Roll as they call it in todays tables minium and getting backed off is most likely to happen

but for all you Kool jasons out there and Zen kings carry on!

If it doesn't work, why are people getting backed off???

i think its a perfect world if you have unlimited funds followed by unlimited time and not caring if you do get backed off
google and read how people lose lose and lose some more on HIGH counts
theres atleast 6 or more creditable websites like this one where i can read over and over how people lost they're roll in card counting
you will always have the Sh!t end of the stick and always have 1/3 of your Roll missing in gambling but more so in card counting

just waiting for that high count where you do not fail your splts/dd/surrenders and bjs/ i am not saying it cant be done but i am saying the above is true
unlimited funds followed by unlimited time and not caring if you do get backed off and a 1-20 spread would be in order to clear any negative variance you may encounter

Simulations do not lie and neither do most people who post their results when losing

in order to be successful in card counting there are things that need to be done

unlimited money
unlimited time
not caring if you get backed off or not(camo all you want)
accepting only 1% of positive shoes will aid you (meaning out of 100 you may be lucky to recoup your losses and gain some profits)
if this sounds like you then go for it gambling w/ the casino's money is always fun but its more of a fictional dream if it were that easy everyone would be doing it
and have a smile on there faces

Quote: sidthesquid

i think its a perfect world if you have unlimited funds followed by unlimited time and not caring if you do get backed off
google and read how people lose lose and lose some more on HIGH counts
theres atleast 6 or more creditable websites like this one where i can read over and over how people lost they're roll in card counting
you will always have the Sh!t end of the stick and always have 1/3 of your Roll missing in gambling but more so in card counting

just waiting for that high count where you do not fail your splts/dd/surrenders and bjs/ i am not saying it cant be done but i am saying the above is true
unlimited funds followed by unlimited time and not caring if you do get backed off and a 1-20 spread would be in order to clear any negative variance you may encounter

Simulations do not lie and neither do most people who post their results when losing

You have no idea what you are talking about. My career is tracking, protecting and training Table Games. There is no question at all that high level card counting and the corresponding correct betting method gives the player the edge and they can and do win in the long term. Simulations back that up as well.

You do not need unlimited funds when you have the statistical advantage over the house. Sure, things can start out bad, but in the long run it will turn around, just like when a player gets lucky when first playing a game and then continues to play and eventually losing over time.


ZCore13

THEN WHY ARE ALL THE COUNTERS REPORTING BACK NEGATIVE RESULTS?? WHY is 21 gun salute down 3900? why is Sagefrog and Aslan taking a break from counting? why is Billythebjkid quit after 15 trips to the house and down some serious $$$? why am i losing my bank account/bankroll to counting? im not making this up this is real as you and me the simulations is just that , but what happens at the tables just be ready to have 10kgrand 20k grand or as Flash1234 likes to call it feeling confident 30k grand!!

cmon Zenking and Stabworld didnt take off what chance do you got!??

in my humble opining your just another Micheal morg gangster on youtube with a different name and face and ready to sell your system or reinforce your delusional belief at the tables

no one said counting is not impossible but after everything thats mentioned above its not worth the headache believing is one thing and know whats true is another


but believe all you wish at real life tables, i loved watching at sands pa table w/ 3 people at it, these 2 asian girls playing her friend watching how she lost 25$ chips left and right non stop shaking her head while this drunk w/ a bud light in his band buys in for 50$ and triples it go ahead play out the 500k hands in the long run see what happens

you will blow through 3900$ F"""ing easy before your 4th day LOL

Quote: sidthesquid

just be ready to have 10kgrand 20k grand or as Flash1234 likes to call it feeling confident 30k grand!!

I mean, isn't that Card Counting 101? I always thought it was common knowledge you needed tens of thousands of dollars just to even START counting cards. Didn't the MIT team have a bankroll in the HUNDREDS of thousands, and later in the millions?

Do not get me wrong, i prefer to play a game where the deck is Rich in 10s and aces and neither you or your opponent has control over the cards however that comes with a price Variance and bankrolling you will run out of stamina (i e money) before casino ever does and thats why i am saying you practically need unlimiteds to try the system out successfully not everyone has access to 30kgrand 40k or 80k the swings in BJ are huge you will beat up the dealer and the dealer will beat up you but in the end if you do not have the stamina to outlast him or her you are finished as many as the posts ive read from others results no i am not making this up either

Quote: sidthesquid

the high cards favor you as much as the dealer (your opponent)

incorrect

the high cards favor the player much more than the dealer for 3 reasons

1. you have a greater chance of drawing a BJ. so does the dealer. but you get paid a bonus for your BJ. the dealer only wins his hand.

2. you will win your double downs more often by drawing a 10 or an Ace to your hand of 9, 10 or 11. the dealer cannot double down.

3. the dealer will bust more often. by the rules the dealer must take a hit when he has a total of 13, 14, 15 or 16. the player does not have to take a hit.




I played blackjack as an AP for 6 years. I played every week one day each week for about 14 hours straight breaking only to throw down some food.

I won 67% of my sessions.

The average size of my wins was much greater than the average size of my losses.

I quit because I had different fish to fry.

If you choose not to believe this it's okay. I don't really care.

deleted repeat

Quote: lilredrooster

incorrect

the high cards favor the player much more than the dealer for 3 reasons

1. you have a greater chance of drawing a BJ. so does the dealer. but you get paid a bonus for your BJ. the dealer only wins his hand.

2. you will win your double downs more often by drawing a 10 or an ace to your hand of 9, 10 or 11. the dealer cannot double down.

3. the dealer will bust more often. by the rules the dealer must take a hit when he has a total of 13, 14, 15 or 16. the player does not have to take a hit.




I played blackjack as an AP for 6 years. I played every week one day each week for about 14 hours straight breaking only to throw down some food.

I won 67% of my sessions.

The average size of my wins was much greater than the average size of my losses.

I quit because I had different fish to fry.

If you choose not to believe this it's okay. I don't really care.

There are actually 6 reasons.

4. Pair splitting

5. Insurance

6. Surrender

Quote: sidthesquid

not everyone has access to 30kgrand 40k or 80k

Then maybe those people shouldn't be counting cards....???

And 30k-40k is hardly an "unlimited" amount of money.

Quote: sidthesquid

THEN WHY ARE ALL THE COUNTERS REPORTING BACK NEGATIVE RESULTS?? WHY is 21 gun salute down 3900? why is Sagefrog and Aslan taking a break from counting? why is Billythebjkid quit after 15 trips to the house and down some serious $$$? why am i losing my bank account/bankroll to counting? im not making this up this is real as you and me the simulations is just that , but what happens at the tables just be ready to have 10kgrand 20k grand or as Flash1234 likes to call it feeling confident 30k grand!!

cmon Zenking and Stabworld didnt take off what chance do you got!??

Very simple. You're not good at it.


ZCore13

dealer shows face card, you hold 16

story always ends the same and casinos continue offering "these beatable games"

if you are like me and has to work for everything i have and you value your money and dont hate your money then do not play blackjack

if you are some playboy mansion guy then this might be right up your alley and go for it

im just trying to save some people some time. money and energy, take your 1k$, take your 10k$ take your 100k$ at the tables see what happens to your life savings if it grows or shrinks

you will blow through 5grand easy easy on a $10 minium table you will be lucky to suffer a 4grand loss on your 4th day for all those new counters gamble smart with your money and income all those liars id rather believe the people telling the truth how they lost and followed by my own sim i run at the kitchen table

go ahead only 1 guy out of 100 are successful and only 5 guys out of 100 have the cash flow to continue to play blackjack at those levels so 1 out of 5 is a gamble

tell me what happen to Zen king and why he stopped counting all you NAY sayers??

Mr stabby went bank rupt they raped his bank account and laughed all the way to the bank while doing it

a new crop of college kids card counters a new year on these counting sites some wise up others generating gambling addictions

im not good at it? wtf does that even mean? CVBJ 3.0 shows me playing flawlessly and down 5,000 in under 3days

all it takes is a couple nasty shoes to swallow and devour bank rolls or as others like to call it 15-25 max bets destroyed

Quote: sidthesquid

if you are like me and has to work for everything

again, you are badly mistaken if you believe playing blackjack as an AP is not work


your posts might be useful to a person who is not willing to make a serious commitment and a serious effort


I do not recommend that a person take up this activity. but the truth is the truth. and it would be untrue to state that there are not many who have made money at this game.

Quote: sidthesquid

all it takes is a couple nasty shoes to swallow and devour bank rolls or as others like to call it 15-25 max bets destroyed

no proficient AP is going to be knocked out of the game by losing 15-25 max bets. that's just the nature of the beast.

only reason it angers me and yes it does is that you spew lies and so does many card counting authors

they do not give the truth of everything of card counting

ofcourse card counting works, and ofcourse casinos back people off however casinos would lose business if they stopped everything in other words they would lose money if someone like me tries these counting systems cause they know i am more likely to go belly up before i see my advantage , now if they have table minium being low as 2$ or even 5$ maybe just maybe but you not find stand 17 and surrender in that min-max range they want atleast 15$ to 25$ and that calls for 12 max bets and that calls for 40k easy if you do not have access to that type of cash then save your money

only works for those have unlimited money unlimited time and dont care if backed off, if your average american w/ average job you will fail badly at the tables believing you are operating always with a 1 0.5 to 2% house egde stabworld and zenking are proof enough

enjoy the slow downard spiral grind

Quote: sidthesquid

only works for those have unlimited money unlimited time and dont care if backed off, if your average american w/ average job you will fail badly at the tables believing you are operating always with a 1 0.5 to 2% house egde stabworld and zenking are proof enough

Oh boy. So wrong, but for one facet: If a card counter pitches his small bankroll against the massive bankroll of a casino, even if he only wongs in when he has a 5% advantage*, he is mathematically almost certain to be totally wiped out if he over-bets his bankroll. Kelly betting ( or half kelly ) will almost totally mitigate that risk. So, if you consider 200x your max stake to be unlimited bankroll, then yes, you need unlimited bankroll or you are indeed screwed.
* and even with great counting skills and a great game it will be mind-crushingly boring waiting for that positive edge to appear. What are you doing then? Min bet playing and leaking chips slowly into a losing game?

Quote: sidthesquid

enjoy the slow downard spiral grind

Sid,

Do you have spell-check?

Quote: sidthesquid

if your average american w/ average job you will fail badly at the tables

it angers me and yes it does is that you spew lies

I would pretty much agree with the first line. I would consider most people who succeed at this endeavor to be above average.


I might suggest that you be cautious about who you call a liar. Again, I don't really care. But others may.

so bank roll over advantage

40k or 80k and then you get your buckets of cash? and i am already combating a -0.5% house edge when the count is poor

hear that everyone? you need 80 grand to try this and unlimited to or end up on your @ss like zenking/stabworld

Quote: sidthesquid

so bank roll over advantage

40k or 80k and then you get your buckets of cash? and i am already combating a -0.5% house edge when the count is poor

hear that everyone? you need 80 grand to try this and unlimited to or end up on your @ss like zenking/stabworld

Well without doing the maths for your specific game that is indeed about the measure of it. Except, you don't get buckets of cash, you get a few hundred dollars per month and sometimes you get a few thousand and some months you lose a few tens of thousands.

You need a fairly high average bet to make the average hourly profit to be worthwhile. Let's indeed do the maths, very rough and ready...

You want to earn $10 per hour (on average) while spending a 10 hour day in a casino where you can wong in or out.

Immediately you discover that you are wonged out at least 8 hands out of every 10, because decent advantage of say 1% is so rare.

8/10 of your time is spent wonged out or relentlessly losing min bets into the edge. So lets say you sit drinking free coffee while wonged out for that 80% of your working day. Your working day is 20% efficient. So when you are actually playing, you need to make $50 per hour, or 83 cents per minute. or, at two hands a minute, call it 40cents per hand.

Lets say you are at that sweet 1% edge. 40c is that 1%
So average wager must be $40
Max wager will obviously be a few times that. Let's say max wager is $200.
Kelly in its most rudimentary terms suggests Bankroll x advantage = max bet ( old school, ignoring SD of the game of about 1.14)
So, 200=Bankroll x 1%
Bankroll= $200/0.01 = $20.000
More, of course if you want to make more than $100 per day or if you need to lose money in bad counts, just to keep a seat.

And, of course, you will have days, weeks, months where you lose relentlessly thousands a day. Zenking suffered that, I can't recall how stabworld did, but I understand he baulked at the massive swings and bowed out of the lifestyle.

Of course, you might only play when you have a 2% advantage, so maybe a $10,000 bankroll would be ample. but you'd be playing less hands per day etc etc..

You thought it was easy, and now you think it's impossible. Neither is true.

Quote: sidthesquid

im not good at it? wtf does that even mean? CVBJ 3.0 shows me playing flawlessly and down 5,000 in under 3days

all it takes is a couple nasty shoes to swallow and devour bank rolls or as others like to call it 15-25 max bets destroyed

If you didn't have the bankroll to play at the level you did, then You're not good at it. There's more to it than just counting positive and negative shoes.


ZCore13

using the formula for RoR or Risk of Ruin a player can determine exactly the % chance he will go bankrupt after plugging in his total Bankroll, his minimum and maximum bet and his % edge. I'm a little rusty with these calculations. It's been years. I'm sure Romes knows the formula right off the top of his head. of course, this assumes play without error.

interestingly, (to me anyway), at one time I thought Risk of Ruin was the percentage chance that you would go bankrupt before doubling your bankroll. I later found out that is incorrect. Risk of Ruin means the % chance that you will EVER go bankrupt.

Quote: lilredrooster

interestingly, (to me anyway), at one time I thought Risk of Ruin was the percentage chance that you would go bankrupt before doubling your bankroll. I later found out that is incorrect. Risk of Ruin means the % chance that you will EVER go bankrupt.

Actually, I suspect that with Kelly betting, it's the risk that you will ever fall below half your starting bankroll, but I'd love Romes's input on that.

this is what Don Schlesinger author of Blackjack Attack and blackjack Hall of Fame member posted about Risk of Ruin on another forum:

"There are six different ROR formulas in BJA3. Some of them have goals, some don't. Some have time constraints, some don't. ROR comes in more than one flavor."


BJA3 refers to the 3rd edition of Blackjack Attack.

Quote: sidthesquid

Bank roll issues you will run out of funds before you see your long term Edge
your blackjacks splits and dd will not be successful im the short term
the high cards favor you as much as the dealer (your opponent)
waiting for a positive return on a high count is almost the same as a royal flush in 9/6 JoB
And finally collecting all the information from various websites on counting forums dating back now and 10 years ago it seems there is no hope for the average joe like me or you to double there Roll as they call it in todays tables minium and getting backed off is most likely to happen

but for all you Kool jasons out there and Zen kings carry on!

Everything you've said is wrong, and more importantly MATHEMATICALLY WRONG. Stop trolling these forums.

I'm shocked he hasn't accused the shufflers of being rigged.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'm shocked he hasn't accused the shufflers of being rigged.

Here bj is 8decks but after each hand the cards are re shuffled as opposed to 5 years ago when the shuffle was done at the end of the shoe. Is it the same state side Las Vegas? Or do you still get the end of shoe shuffle?
I ve found the continuous shuffle negates the count, oh and by the way there are NO video POKER machines at Sydney casino, not one just for some posters that have posted on video challenges
Kind regards

Quote: Romes

Everything you've said is wrong, and more importantly MATHEMATICALLY WRONG. Stop trolling these forums.

Two things:

1. +1 for Romes.... Clearly we have a troll.
2. Did anyone check for pre-shuffled chinese prison cards? (Best excuse EVER... TY ZK!)

Seriously thought, I'm a hack part time red chip player that knows 2 indecencies, 16 v 10 and insurance. I spread 1/2 the amounts the boards say and wong out at -1 TC...

That plan puts me about even +comps and it kills time. Could it be luck, I don't know...

As best I can tell, math works but counting is hard.

i guess the thread should have said "why counting is not worth it" ask zen king and stab world if they have gambling addictions

same math you use on casino the casino use on you and thats why they lost bigger banks bigger advantage they lacked both

First off sidthesquid, i dont know why you said i failed or went bankrupt, maybe you do that to try and add whatever validity to your nonsense that you're spewing. I'm not even in the negative in Vegas, im actually in the black. I stopped playing recently not because I 'lost it all' like you keep saying, but to not risk any more backoffs at other properties due to a possible flyer being generated and then having my face 'remembered' by all these properties. I also stopped posting in the Dday thread because I was backed off and didn't feel like updating that thread anymore and probably won't anymore. The thread ended with me ending in the positive after a roller coaster and should serve a good story for whoever wants to take up counting to know how tough it really is. Also, this is just Vegas, I've played over 800 hours in PA and made over +40k, so even if I was to lose money here in Vegas, im still not a 'failure' as you keep claiming I was after trying to count.

Secondly, you're the prototypical average card counter that casinos love and why books and movies on card counting was the best thing to ever happen to casinos. Casinos offer blackjack because they know how tough it is and how improperly capitalized most people are when they try to come count and beat them. Thus their profits are actually even more due to the surplus number of people trying to come in and beat them. These newly made counters after skimming through a card counting book or googling +1 and -1, end up not understanding the true math behind it all. The unfortunate result of this, is that these average counters come in and think it's a money making machine and quickly lose their $200-$500 in their wallets and go on these forums and cry like a little girl. Casinos also continue to offer blackjack as well because for every person that can beat them, they have the luxury of just kicking them out and trespassing them. For every person that can beat them, there are also hundreds maybe even thousands who cannot.

Not to mention, do you realize an uninformed average card counter like yourself is actually more beneficial to the casino than your average basic strategy player? Why is that? Instead of just flat betting like the average basic player, the average counter who reads a book on counting on the plane ride here will now induce more variance by spreading his bets and most likely lose, which will cause the casino to have a better hold for that day and thus more profits. Also the average counter, even if he/she could beat them, would probably be making around $4 an hour and keeping tables open for more ploppies to join and thus even more profits for the casino. The point is, there are simply too many indirect positive factors for casinos to simply not offer blackjack.

I suggest you stop spamming my name here saying I failed because I haven't. Maybe if you took all the time you waste on crying and actually trying to understand the math behind the game, you would actually succeed. Yes I might sound like a hypocrite because I also complained a lot, but my complaining was completely different to what you're doing. I was actually a winning player, but that the lack of transparency between casinos and players was not there and it bothered me to the point I thought I was getting cheated. I suggest the first thing you start to understand, if you're actually even a real player and not just a troll; is to learn what exactly N-zero(N0) is. That metric alone will answer all of the complaining you constantly do about this game. I bet you haven't even played 100 hours or 6-7k worth of hands at the tables.

Oh, dang, this is getting good....

llllll

so now i have 40k i hit up all the casinos in Pennsylvania i look at the floor workers pit boss/dealers and they look back at me and one day they say i cant deal to you
after losing thousands upon thousands

so now i have to either go to atlantic city fight those 8 deckers hit 17 no surrender and spent my life in vegas blending in like a ploppy finding a s17 and late surrender all id care about

id have to pack it up and go there thats beyond stupid for measly 10-20$ an hour w/ that bankrolling as i read not worth the headache for 10$ an hour

so what i get for 40k? 0% chance of ruin, 10 an hourly job at the bj tables wondering when im gonna be backed off and hoping around in vegas all for that?
card counting doesnt work you need unlimited funds and not care about being backed off and may as well live in vegas

I've never heard it put so succulent. Of course card counting doesn't work. It's a myth, like the lunar landings and female orgasms.
Everyone knows the casinos wrote the book. Many people have no idea Ed Thorpe spent years as Howard Hughes' Head of Player Development ,or that Stanford Wong is an alias Donald Trump used to avoid NJ Gaming Legislation.
It's also not true that every time a dealer gets a blackjack, Sheldon Adelson kills another kitten.
Best not to rock the boat.

go bill go put your 40 thousand to rest in peace im sorry what? you dont want to lose 25000 like a math teacher did playing double decker and 6 decker??????? i read that lil golden nugget on different counting site haha i think he put his other 25000 in a fdic bank smart man

so yea gambling w/ an edge gotta love it

the casinos should be paying ed o thorp for every numb skull thinks hes gonna win by counting haha jokes on him he failed to mention more money than god and unlimited time invested maybe just maybe he may win if not win a back off haha

Quote: sidthesquid

the casinos should be paying ed o thorp for every numb skull thinks hes gonna win by counting haha jokes on him he failed to mention more money than god and unlimited time invested maybe just maybe he may win if not win a back off haha

You do know that 99.9% of the Country doesn't give a rats ads about Ed Thorpe's book or how hard or easy it is to count or what their bankroll should be?

You're not living in reality. Full time professional blackjack players in the U.S. might be able to fit into a 3 car garage. Just because you believed you could do it doesn't mean everyone else does. You are probabably not going to find one person in this forum to sympathise with you.


ZCore13

im not looking for sympathy i just want to warn anyone who is interested in card counting telling him or her that losing 50 max bets can be very real and very common,

50 max bets half of 20k is lot of money 50 max bets of 40k still remains alot of money and all for what? 10-20$ hourly? + you are fighting w/ the casino personal and ploppies getting backed off losing for months on end god forbid an year! haha quote from bj attack anywho yea goodluck its a tough road ahead for you adding and subtracting cards is the easy part, accepting the casino just raped 1/2 your bank account followed by a ban is another

i loved how ben looked over to the cam and said i dunno even know what im down pff 47k? oh well they look so poor they had to share a motel room and sleep in same bed haha and spent all that time and energy for what? 7500 after plane ticket and food and housing? yea carry on you card counters

again dont get me wrong no bj book does it say tables mean atm machines, it just means maybe if everything goes right after a year or 2 years you should be right where your suppose to be, which is what your hourly average bet is that may work for some individuals who dont care if they gambled with and edge and lost their bank accounts, some play boy mansion guy who has nothing better to do, but i feel bad for all those who walked in hopes of making that non existing 10$ an hour wage with that non existing floating advantage and lost 3900$ hard cash in under 4 days at the tables swings and variance too much for the average joe in usa but carry on i look down on card counters

its sad to say that 95% of gamblers if not more are poor and they remain poor, just look at the lottery winners mega million and powerball
the rich do not need to gamble with an edge they are already rich from means outside the casino

if anyone is reading this and interested in card counting do yourself a service and buy software that will tell you everything you need to know about the wins and losses that you will and wish to encounter at the tables casino verite v3.0 and masque blackjack seems to stand strong and read everything you can on counting forums
and always judge carefully there are alot of counters that i believe who used strong systems and just became a victim to bad variance and thats how the cards are shuffled and thats how the game ends with a -5,000 Net loser it is not a clean cut game baccarat is more clean cut just bleeds you slowly Bj w/ its spreading and additional plays will result in big wins and big losses however as i mentioned before need more money for more losses to come heh

im almost at that point where i want to call out the professional counters and make a deal with me and all the nay sayers

we put up 4k$ each of us ten of us, if that so called pro losses it he owes us back the money + 1% interested if he wins then he keeps 1/5 of our 4k$

but it has to be a casino where we can back bet, that way if we lose the back bet the pro still pays us, and if we lose the verbal bet we won all the back bets

too good to be true? not confident about your skills? you can take all the time you want hell i will even follow you to the tables and back bet with you

but in a perfect world i have work and bills =/

we put up 4k$ each of us ten of us, if that so called pro losses it he owes us back the money + 1% interested if he wins then he keeps 1/5 of our 4k$


If I am understanding this, you'll put up $4,000. If I lose the $4,000, I repay you $4,040. If I win anything, I only repay you $3200?
When and where?
I'm not sure about the ten of us. I'll do it with you and nine friends, or do ten individual bets with you.
I'm far from a pro counter but know how to shear a sheep with the best of them.
If you truly have $40,000, I'm sure we can get ten people together for ten challenges.

no if he blows up and loses all our money he has to pay us back the 4,000+ 1% retrurn however if he does decide to succeed in doubling the 10x 4k then he owes us 800 and gets to keep the 3200

how is that a losing proposition? if were back betting with him (and fail to) that could prove negative results on our 2nd bankroll maybe back bet only when it looks like when hes winning lol