aceK
aceK
Joined: Aug 24, 2016
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August 13th, 2017 at 7:25:18 PM permalink
I have seen videos of people playing blackjack while counting cards and getting backed off tables because of aggressively betting when the cards turn to plus, which brings a lot of attention (unwanted) to themselves.

would it not be smarter to progressively increase your betting when cards go into the plus to avoid drawing the unwanted attention in order to continue playing verses playing aggressive and getting marked as a card counter?

please be gentle, I'm learning :)
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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August 13th, 2017 at 11:08:31 PM permalink
Quote: aceK

please be gentle, I'm learning :)



aceK, <as gently as I can>

I have lots of patience, but when posters have ALREADY provided you with answers or reading suggestions, and you ask the questions like you just did, I'll be the first to say you're looking for shortcuts without paying your dues. Pls remember to add as much info that enables the reader to give an informed reply: how much is the bet? what game? what rules? where are you playing? and as previously suggested, your spread, bankroll, ramp, HE, EV, etc. You see, each condition (and there's many) affects the possible outcomes and suggestions for a winning solution.

So far, I can comfortably say ALL your previous questions have answers in one of the 3 Romes articles - it's quite literally a super A-Z of card counting and Blackjack.

Pls do yourself a favor and invest a couple of hours digesting those articles. Then you can make some references to what you read if your question is still not answered.

Otherwise, you can expect one of more events:

- readers will leave just ignore your post
- you'll annoy previous posters who already made some comments

Happy reading!
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 14th, 2017 at 1:42:46 AM permalink
When you win and the count justifies it, let your bet ride. Where it gets tricky is when you lose but the count calls for a bigger bet.
It's really a matter of experience. You need to learn to gauge what you can spread at every table. That's the heat part of the equation, and one of the few aspects of the game you cannot simulate or read about.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 14th, 2017 at 1:49:17 AM permalink
Quote: LostWages

Quote: aceK

please be gentle, I'm learning :)



aceK, <as gently as I can>

I have lots of patience, but when posters have ALREADY provided you with answers or reading suggestions, and you ask the questions like you just did, I'll be the first to say you're looking for shortcuts without paying your dues. Pls remember to add as much info that enables the reader to give an informed reply: how much is the bet? what game? what rules? where are you playing? and as previously suggested, your spread, bankroll, ramp, HE, EV, etc. You see, each condition (and there's many) affects the possible outcomes and suggestions for a winning solution.

So far, I can comfortably say ALL your previous questions have answers in one of the 3 Romes articles - it's quite literally a super A-Z of card counting and Blackjack.

Pls do yourself a favor and invest a couple of hours digesting those articles. Then you can make some references to what you read if your question is still not answered.

Otherwise, you can expect one of more events:

- readers will leave just ignore your post
- you'll annoy previous posters who already made some comments

Happy reading!



That's pretty harsh , coming from a guy who is pretty new to the game. Some people learn by reading articles, others by asking questions.
If you don't want to help someone, don't respond.
There are no dumb questions.
LostWages
LostWages
Joined: May 6, 2013
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August 14th, 2017 at 9:25:18 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

That's pretty harsh , coming from a guy who is pretty new to the game. Some people learn by reading articles, others by asking questions.

Bill, you are right, especially as I am really also new to the game. I'm a big believer in "There's no dumb questions".

I guess I was annoyed because of the OP's original post:

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/26663-what-is-next/#post549158

Perhaps you're right, and you've always been a downright helpful poster. I do have the choice of just not responding. Thanks for reminding me.

LW
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
tyler498
tyler498
Joined: Jun 24, 2017
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August 14th, 2017 at 10:44:34 AM permalink
Quote: aceK

I have seen videos of people playing blackjack while counting cards and getting backed off tables because of aggressively betting when the cards turn to plus, which brings a lot of attention (unwanted) to themselves.

would it not be smarter to progressively increase your betting when cards go into the plus to avoid drawing the unwanted attention in order to continue playing verses playing aggressive and getting marked as a card counter?

please be gentle, I'm learning :)



Nothing can answer that better than some simulations, but the answer is yes, progressives can be used to mask card counting. For example starting to do the Martingale (doubling after every loss), and occasionally shouting to the dealer "let's take it back" when you are actually doing that because the count is good. Many also only increase their bets after a win ...etc. But this comes at a cost for profitability. The more you stray from Kelly the more the cost to profitability is. There is a lot of reading you can do online about it, but my intuition is that the price you pay is very highly dependent on the HE you start with. If the BS house edge (no counting) is say -0.3 then you can get away with a lot more than if it was -0.6%.
According to your previous post you play a H17 NS game, if this is 6 deck the initial HE is -0.64%, which is already a bit hard to overcome, if you add to that progressive strategies to mask your spread I don't think you'll have a very profitable game (but again sims will answer that exactly).
If that is the case and you will get heat from bet spreads you can look into Wonging or semi-wonging.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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August 14th, 2017 at 11:30:35 AM permalink
Quote: aceK

I have seen videos of people playing blackjack while counting cards and getting backed off tables because of aggressively betting when the cards turn to plus, which brings a lot of attention (unwanted) to themselves.

would it not be smarter to progressively increase your betting when cards go into the plus to avoid drawing the unwanted attention in order to continue playing verses playing aggressive and getting marked as a card counter?

please be gentle, I'm learning :)

aceK, three things:

1) When counters spread, they are 'sort of' progressive betting. As the count gets better and better, the counter bets more and more until they reach their max bet. There is no min to max when the count goes good, it's a ramp based on the True Count (TC) as follows (generic example for S17 game):

TC < -1 = sit out
TC < +1 = $10
TC = +1 = $30
TC = +3 = $60
TC >= +4 = $90

*Note this is a rather conservative spread assuming a shoe game... just a generic example... but notice how the bets progress with the true count rising.

2) If you ever 'progress' your bet and the TC is not positive then you're literally giving money away in the long run. When you bet (at all) and the count isn't in your favor, you're going to lose money, guaranteed, in the long run. We play these -1 and 0 counts though as "cover" to not just jump in only when the shoe is good (wonging) because that's really too obvious sometimes. Thus, these TC -1 and TC 0 counts (TC 0 is what the shoe starts at for Hi/Low as well) are actually just negative EV on your overall hourly EV. To sum up, you NEVER want to raise your bet in a non-favorable count, and a good counter is already raising their bet (as shown above) in good counts as the count progresses.

3) The casino doesn't really care about progression or ramps (too much). They mostly care about what your min bet is and your max bet is and if they differ from each other by a good amount (say min $10 max $200) then the pit boss could call a skills check on you which means someone in surveillance might count the next shoe (or go back and watch the last one) and see if you're betting with the count.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
aceK
aceK
Joined: Aug 24, 2016
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August 14th, 2017 at 5:43:17 PM permalink
thank you for the advice that makes a lot more sense

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