Bankroll requirement??

Hi all!

I've recently started counting BJ occasionally ( weekends), not professionally but I still got a comfortable edge thanks to good rules. (Where I play the 10$ min 6deck shoe has an initial edge of -0.36) and it seems like nobody cares about spreads!

The only thing I don't get/disagree with is bankroll requirement, I've read things such as "without a bankroll you would be just gambling", and "you need to increase your bankroll to reduce your ROR because your ROR is too high..."

It seems to me that advising counters to first prepare a large bankroll is a huge waste of resources, and saying a lower bankroll increases your ROR might cause misconceptions. Of course, a 2K$ bankroll will have a much higher ROR than a 20K$ one, but ruin in the first one means only losing 2K and ruin in the second example is losing 20k! you are just as likely to win/lose any given amount of money with any bankroll, provided of course the loss is smaller than your bankroll. (sorry for stating the obvious but I also got misled as I started as well).

Also if you look at this from a return on investment perspective, then about half the time, when a player remains mostly up, his bankroll isn't used, which is inefficient. The optimal way it seems to me to optimize the return on investment is to start with a small bankroll and increase it in case of losses (or stop).

To be honest I have never even thought of what my bankroll is, I guess I stayed well within the SD and never had to ask myself. Am I missing something? is the bankroll a figure in your mind or does it have to be money you are actually able to put in the game? why would having that money bring you any advantage (such as lower risk of losing)?

Lemme know what you all think :)

Guy who taught me to play said start with a $3,000 BR and play $5 games until you double it, spreading 1-4. He said doing that would teach me discipline. With $6,000 play $10 1-4 until you double it. That's as far as I got, because I ever felt comfortable wagering $25-$100 on a hand. I play a $10-$50 game, or less.
I think his way works. Might not be for everybody, but what is?

Quote: tyler498

Hi all!

I've recently started counting BJ occasionally ( weekends), not professionally but I still got a comfortable edge thanks to good rules. (Where I play the 10$ min 6deck shoe has an initial edge of -0.36) and it seems like nobody cares about spreads!

The only thing I don't get/disagree with is bankroll requirement, I've read things such as "without a bankroll you would be just gambling", and "you need to increase your bankroll to reduce your ROR because your ROR is too high..."

It seems to me that advising counters to first prepare a large bankroll is a huge waste of resources, and saying a lower bankroll increases your ROR might cause misconceptions. Of course, a 2K$ bankroll will have a much higher ROR than a 20K$ one, but ruin in the first one means only losing 2K and ruin in the second example is losing 20k! you are just as likely to win/lose any given amount of money with any bankroll, provided of course the loss is smaller than your bankroll. (sorry for stating the obvious but I also got misled as I started as well).

Also if you look at this from a return on investment perspective, then about half the time, when a player remains mostly up, his bankroll isn't used, which is inefficient. The optimal way it seems to me to optimize the return on investment is to start with a small bankroll and increase it in case of losses (or stop).

To be honest I have never even thought of what my bankroll is, I guess I stayed well within the SD and never had to ask myself. Am I missing something? is the bankroll a figure in your mind or does it have to be money you are actually able to put in the game? why would having that money bring you any advantage (such as lower risk of losing)?

Lemme know what you all think :)

Risk Of Ruin is better applied or understood from a professional's point of view. If a professional card counter runs out of bankroll, he's broke and needs to find another way to make money. This is why a professional card counter wants to have a large bankroll so he can endure the large swings that come with card counting blackjack.

On the other hand, for a recreational-type card counter who plays mostly only on the weekends, the needs of a bankroll are much different. If you have a regular job where you have an income that is greater than your expenses, then you can use the extra income as a way to have a replenishable bankroll.

All you really need is enough money for a session bankroll (or more) whenever you go out. If/when it goes below that amount, replenish your roll with your other income. If it never goes below that amount (extremely rare), then you're not wasting any time or resources.

Essentially, you do have that extra money and it can be considered part of your bankroll. Instead of having that money in the bank or in a shoe box in the closet, it's just money that you haven't yet been paid from your job.


I don't want my post to be interpreted the wrong way, so I'll include this:

- Remember, you can get fired from your job at any second. Even though there is money from your job that you will get paid, that only counts if you still have that job. Don't borrow money or play on credit just because you'll get paid next week or whatever.
- Don't play outside of your means. Only use money you actually have that is not necessary for anything else (house/car/insurance payments, rent/food/kids/etc.).

The smaller the Bankroll the more aggressive you bet it. Forget all the correct numbers. If the money is replenish-able through your normal work / business life then do not sweat it. If you have a good income and play bj for recreation then I would take the bankroll ( the amount of money you are willing to lose playing blackjack and only blackjack) divide it by 50 units and bet that at a TC of 2 ( shoe game). I would use the old well trusted betting yard stick of : Units bet = True Count -1

Your minimum bet should be as low as possible preferably zero but at worst case no more than the unit divided by 12.
I would not reduce my bet until I lost 30 units. High risk of being broke but maximize potential big win when compared to your BR.

Remember this is a high risk strategy but it has high rewards.

Betting more than full kelly is counter productive for the purpose of bankroll growth and not recommended. It is true that a larger bankroll should be bet more cautiously than a smaller bankroll. Bankroll can be defined either as your net-worth or some amount of wealth that you are willing to devote to blackjack. Proper bankroll management is critical and there is really no intelligent way to size your bets without a good understanding of what your bankroll is. With a 2k bankroll it is difficult to win at a rate that is worth your time even with a good game.

In my opinion risk of ruin is the single most dangerous metric for a new to be counter. The reason i say that is very simple. Many counters focus on the exact number too much amd dont realize exactly what it means and how to extrapolate the data from it. Risk of ruin means losing ALL of your money. What counters dont realize is that your risk of ruin might be 1% or 5%, but what they dont realize is that they might have a 30% or 50% chance to lose 1/3 or more of their bankroll and then what? Many dont understand, you now have to resize your bets or you will be headed potentially for ruin. And what happens when you resize? Youre now making much less.

The second most dangerous metric is NOT understanding N0(N-zero). This is the single most important metric in my opinion that any aspiring counter should know and understand. This metric tells you exactly the chance of you overcoming one standard deviation after a certain amount of rounds played given a fixed betting ramp. If lets say you have a N0 of 17k, you now know you need to play 17,000 rounds of blackjack to have a 68% chance of not being BEHIND and you can now adjust your living expenses and risk accordingly.

Instead of just falling in love with your risk of ruin percentage, knowing how to incorporate both of the things i just mentioned give you a much clearer picture of how to prepare a bankroll accordingly. One of the big culprits is the books that are published. They dont want to mention any of that because that doesnt sell. Yes, granted, most of these books came out before N0 was created, but they still never talk about how tough counting really is. They will use inflated numbers such as 100 rounds per hour just to boost the hourly dollar figure that one can earn to inspire new counters on just how great counting is and so they can SELL their book better. No one wants to read abour how much of a grind it is. No author is gonna sit there and say you have a 50% chance of losing 1/3 of your bankroll and now you will make much less per hour due to resizing. That simply doesnt sell.

" What counters dont realize is that your risk of ruin might be 1% or 5%, but what they dont realize is that they might have a 30% or 50% chance to lose 1/3 or more of their bankroll and then what? Many dont understand, you now have to resize your bets "

The flip side of this is that if you have a plan to resize your bets, as you should, then your effective ROR is much smaller than the simulator says.

I've yet to meet an author of a blackjack book who seemed concerned about selling his book. There is little money in these books.

One could argue bankroll management is only critical if losing it in totality is a life changing moment. Most of the time this never happens. People quit playing until they are able to add to their remaining monies. The idea of winning back their losses by betting 25% of the wager that lost it is all to frightening. There is the theoretical simulated world of blackjack and there is the real blackjack world of unending toil.

Quote: Salthouse

One could argue bankroll management is only critical if losing it in totality is a life changing moment. Most of the time this never happens. People quit playing until they are able to add to their remaining monies. The idea of winning back their losses by betting 25% of the wager that lost it is all to frightening. There is the theoretical simulated world of blackjack and there is the real blackjack world of unending toil.

Wrong. If you can't accept it, you're just 'gambling'. Resizing is all part of the game for a professional. If you think something is 'frightening' you've already left 'professional' and went back into 'recreational' territory. You also resize when your bankroll grows. That will compensate for the time you resized down in a downswing. One should always be resizing up and down for maximum growth unless you're facing severe heat, where then upping your max bet is not recommended.

Quote: Salthouse

One could argue bankroll management is only critical if losing it in totality is a life changing moment. Most of the time this never happens.

So few people go bust because of bankroll mismanagement. Erm I have to disagree there!

Quote:

People quit playing until they are able to add to their remaining monies.

By begging on the streets, re-mortgaging, or maybe maxing out some cards.
Kelly ( or better half kelly ) demands that you constantly re-assess your ROR. If that means grinding back up with some smaller wagers, then so you must do.

I agree with most of what your last post said if we are talking the theoretical world of blackjack. However the game is played by humans. If the human has a tiny bankroll my approach is the only one where by the player is not wasting their time. I agree they are gambling with more risk. But this fact does not make it a bad strategy for low bankrolls under 10k providing there is other income and cash flow.

Quote: tyler498

is the bankroll a figure in your mind or does it have to be money you are actually able to put in the game? why would having that money bring you any advantage (such as lower risk of losing)?

Tyler, you sound like you have the smarts to read several explanations to all you questions. I believe all your suspicions are correct.

I can't validate all of Romes explanations, but the 50% I've practiced were all right on the button.

Romes asks: What is . . .

1. . . . the house edge? (< 0.60 or lower)
2. . . . your bet spread?
3. . . . your session bankroll?
4. . . . your hourly EV (expected value) of the game you’re going to play? and
5. . . . the PEN? Don't play if < 60%, because you'll rarely get a TC high enough (>=2) to merit raising your bet.

If you cannot answer these 5 questions, then you're NOT ready to gamble!

These are the 3 articles of Romes


https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/A-to-Z-Counting

Quote: ZenKinG

If lets say you have a N0 of 17k, you now know you need to play 17,000 rounds of blackjack to have a 68% chance of not being BEHIND and you can now adjust your living expenses and risk accordingly.

ZenKinG your percentage is off a little. in your example after 17,000 rounds you have 84% chance of not being behind. This is because you are losing only if you are behind more than 1 standard deviation. The 68% you mention is the chance of being within 1 standard dev, but there is also 16% chance that you are more than 1 standard dev up.

Of course your point is still correct. The N0 matters.

Thanks all, you are really helpful. I am getting it better and yes I agree that the amount of money you can put in should impact the way you bet, and the variance you are comfortable with. I just wanted to confirm I didn't need to actually have that bankroll ( it could be replenished over time if needed), also I guess I was looking for a reason not to worry about all those calculations and resizing especially that I ever only play one game.
I also read Romes A-toZ counting cards and WoO's before I started, and to answer your questions LostWages:
I only play 6deck S17 DAS DA2 LS with 75% pen, 10$ min. The house edge according to WoO is -0.36. I use basic strategy and I18+F4.
1 -0.36
2 1-16 (8*2)
3 About 1K$
4 Not sure about that one, according to /games/blackjack/card-counting/high-low/ , in which the example is the same as my play, my PLAYER ADV = 0.834% * 1.9*10$ avg bet *100 handsperhour ==> 15.8$ per hour. But this part in the wizard's sim I do not do so my EV is probably higher:
"To avoid setting off red flags, the simulation increased the bet after a win only, decreased after a loss only, and always stayed the same after a push, except resetting to a minimum bet after a shuffle. The simulation rounded the remaining decks to the nearest half deck, otherwise playing perfectly."
5 - 75%

I have played about 100 hours and I'm up 2.5k$. Let me know if there is anything I can improve, I am working on getting the discipline to do it consistently.
I learned that the hard way when I wanted to split 10s vs 6 on a TC+8, but got pressured by the table not to do so and ended up with a push/loss (2hands), instead of what would've been a +400$ swing...

Definitely have to split the tens vs 6 at +8. Actually I usually wait until +7 or +8 to start splitting, because while you can maximize your expected value by splitting at TC +4 (in the case of TT v 6) it's not really worth the increased variance and risk until slightly higher. You should definitely pay no attention to what other people at the table are saying, but more importantly try to get a heads up game even if it means playing through negative counts.

Also you should stop over betting your bankroll. It's really not that hard to go on a 30 or 40 max bet downswing.

Tyler498

Quote: tyler498

Let me know if there is anything I can improve

Tyler, thanks for continuing the discussion. Actually, my post was to provide info based on the Romes readings I've done. It appears you have most of the conditions in your favor, HE of -0.36, PEN of 75%, and especially no heat ("nobody cares about spreads").

I've calculated my EV for the game I like to play, but have not done a calculation for when a person plays TWO hands at a time - is that what you meant by (8 * 2)?

I am guessing you double the EV calculated for one hand, and with your 1-16 spread for 2 hands (8*2) I came up with $21.269 X 2 or $42.538/hr.

If I have incorrectly interpreted your spread and ramping, I'm sure you or a more experienced poster than myself will correct that.

Here is the calculation spreadsheet where you can correct the ramping to match what you actually use to see how yor EV can further improve. Sorry, forgot to enter HE of -0.36 on the spread sheet.

You're in a great forum with many players who can share their input!

Quote: someone

ZenKinG your percentage is off a little. in your example after 17,000 rounds you have 84% chance of not being behind. This is because you are losing only if you are behind more than 1 standard deviation. The 68% you mention is the chance of being within 1 standard dev, but there is also 16% chance that you are more than 1 standard dev up.

Of course your point is still correct. The N0 matters.

Yes i know that you have a 16% chance of being > 1 standard deviation. I was simply pointing out what the single number of N0 means in blackjack and that's having a 68% of overcoming 1 SD AND being WITHIN 1 standard deviation. You make a good point though for other new to be counters reading because you are also right, but i was simply talking about NOT being behind and was not talking about exceeding 1SD. If you look at my last post, I said "of NOT being behind".

All in all, after 1*N0, you have a 16% chance of being in the red, 68% chance of being ahead AND within one standard deviation and a 16% chance of being ahead by more than 1SD. Now, the more important thing, is knowing that 4*N0 would give you a 95% chance of NOT being behind and within 2 SD. If you're still not ahead at least .01 cent after 4*N0, thats when you can start assuming that you're either playing poorly or being cheated.

The reason why I like N0 so much is because if you're like me and you're moving out somewhere and need to adjust for living expenses, instead of just factoring in a full years expenses which for me was around 18k. I now know with a 95% certainty(4*N0) that ill be ahead after lets say 52,000 rounds. I then take those 52,000 rounds and divide by a conservative 60 rounds per hour and it comes out to around 850 hours. With my initial plan of playing 36 hours of week, i now know i will only have to worry about 6 months worth of expenses and instead of subtracting 18k from my bankroll, I now only need to subtract 9k from my bankroll. That's a 50% difference right there and you most likely now will still be able to keep your regular bet sizes and not have to downsize. Had you not understood N0, you would be subtracting 18k from your bankroll and not have your bankroll grow at an optimal rate. Granted, ive played no where near 36 hours a week, mostly due to being shell-shocked right off the bat while still getting situated, but in theory and practicality, it really helps someone manage their bankroll if they're like me and want to move out and play full time.

Quote: LostWages

Tyler498

Quote: tyler498

Let me know if there is anything I can improve

Tyler, thanks for continuing the discussion. Actually, my post was to provide info based on the Romes readings I've done. It appears you have most of the conditions in your favor, HE of -0.36, PEN of 75%, and especially no heat ("nobody cares about spreads").

I've calculated my EV for the game I like to play, but have not done a calculation for when a person plays TWO hands at a time - is that what you meant by (8 * 2)?

I am guessing you double the EV calculated for one hand, and with your 1-16 spread for 2 hands (8*2) I came up with $21.269 X 2 or $42.538/hr.

If I have incorrectly interpreted your spread and ramping, I'm sure you or a more experienced poster than myself will correct that.

Here is the calculation spreadsheet where you can correct the ramping to match what you actually use to see how yor EV can further improve. Sorry, forgot to enter HE of -0.36 on the spread sheet.

You're in a great forum with many players who can share their input!

g]

Thanks so much! you got it correctly, I play 2 hands usually at TC+2 (when spot available next to me). So yeah I figured my EV+ should be over 20$, which works for me at the moment.

Quote: tyler498

Thanks so much! you got it correctly, I play 2 hands usually at TC+2 (when spot available next to me). So yeah I figured my EV+ should be over 20$, which works for me at the moment.

Glad to share what I've slowly picked up in bits and pieces. If you play with the ramping, you'll see how you can easily increase/decrease your EV!

The more experienced players are sure to add a comment or two.

That's cool you can play 2 hands at a time - I'm still working to find a comfort level playing with ONE hand!

Cheers!

Well isn't it more comfortable to play 2 hands, to reduce variance and all? Even at TC+1 I feel better betting 10$*2hands then 20$ on one hand. It is also more fun!