When to cut your losses?

Hi all,

Last week I was in Vegas and took a very small bankroll ($300) with me. I sought out a $5 (3:2) BJ table and lost it in about 3 hours. (I am a very solid basic strategy player.) 2 days later I was at a different casino, bought in for $100, but lost that fairly quickly. I bought in for another hundred, got down to my last $25 but eventually clawed my way back to end up +$25 for the session--and that got me thinking. Perhaps the first night if I had had a larger bankroll I could have stuck around and made it back--or would I have been putting at risk that extra money as well?

At what point does one say to oneself, "I'm gettin' my ass kicked and I should quit before I lose my entire session bankroll"? I know that BJ is all about the long-term grind, and I see folks on here talk about going through losings spells. Does one actually take one's entire bankroll withe him/herself when you go out to play, or do you take a session bankroll and say to yourself, "I'm going to leave when 1) I lose my bankroll, or 2) when I increase my bankroll by x units, or 3) after I've played x number of hours?

Tonight I played at my local casino, and it was one of those nights where I couldn't win anything. I only play with a new shoe, but I won only 2 bets the entire first shoe. I only played about 45-50 minutes, but only won one 1 double (out of 5-6) and only had 1 blackjack. Pretty much flat betting $5 a hand, and even with my weak card counting skills, all of the shoes tonight NEVER got much more worse than TC -1 (so I didn't Wong out), or more than +2. Of course, on days like today it seemed that the dealer rarely busted and I busted all my stiff 13-16 hands. I lost my $100 session bankroll and even put in another $25, managed to tread water for another 10 minutes or so, but lost that as well. The tide never turned in my favor at all.

Should I have taken a lot more money with me and "weathered the storm" and continued to play? Or, should I have just stopped when I did, because I ran through my session bankroll? For some reason, having at least 20x the betting unit seems reasonable to me.

Theorie

p.s. after I lost my final bet [a double!], I sat sipping my beer and watched the only other player at the table go through $700. Now, when things go bad, I might shake my head and joke to the dealer about getting killed or catching a break, but this guy was almost slamming down his chips after each hand he lost. I thought to myself, at least I'm not losing $700 in a single evening!

When you are mentally defeated, it's always better to walk away. Casinos will be there tomorrow. A shower and a good nights sleep can work wonders.

Quote: billryan

When you are mentally defeated, it's always better to walk away. Casinos will be there tomorrow. A shower and a good nights sleep can work wonders.

I agree with this, of course.

I also wonder, as it seems that you are keeping up with the count, do you increase your bets when the count is positive (to any substantial degree) or do you just keep the count to wong-out at a worse TC than -1?

It just doesn't seem like losing $100 in 40-45 minutes at Blackjack with a $5 bet comes as any great surprise to me. Two people at the table. Probably saw nearly 100 hands in that time, down twenty base bets. That's certainly not a good run, but nothing that seems shocking to me, especially if you lost 4/5 or 5/6 doubles. 5/6 doubles would be down $40 just on those six hands, so now you're losing something like twelve additional base bets in over ninety hands.

Granted, we're comparing 800 hands per hour to 100, but I've certainly gone down $100 in 40 minutes on Video Poker at $1.25/hand. I'm not even talking TDB, or anything, 98.91% 800-200-25-15-9-4-4-3-2-1 DW. Forty minutes is going to be, like, 530ish hands, so even if we call it 550, that's $687.5 coin-in. About the same in dollars and cents that you would get down on Blackjack hands in that amount of time once you factor in splits and doubles, maybe a little more on VP than BJ.

Granted, there's some more variance on VP than Blackjack, obviously, but I don't know. Dropping $100 in forty minutes just doesn't seem terribly surprising. I've certainly done worse, and I almost never play Blackjack.

Were you playing with those pre shuffled Chinese cards?
If so, that's your problem.

Quote: MaxPen

Were you playing with those pre shuffled Chinese cards?
If so, that's your problem.

One day people will wake up.

Personally, I'm more concerned with not waking up.

Quote: theoriemeister

(I am a very solid basic strategy player.)

Do you count/ramp/wong such that you have an actual advantage? I don't, so I'm playing for recreation. I guess you are too at those levels.

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. . . that got me thinking. Perhaps the first night if I had had a larger bankroll I could have stuck around and made it back--or would I have been putting at risk that extra money as well?

Certainly the more you play, the more you put at risk

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At what point does one say to oneself, "I'm gettin' my ass kicked and I should quit before I lose my entire session bankroll"?

Session bankroll should be fully expendible, with joy and resignation. When the fun stops, stop

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. . . or do you take a session bankroll and say to yourself, "I'm going to leave when 1) I lose my bankroll, or 2) when I increase my bankroll by x units, or 3) after I've played x number of hours?

As a recreational player, that's my way. I have the objective of maybe an hour's amusement in which to lose, break even, or maybe double or treble session br. Spotting the odd beneficial dealer error or getting a hand that keeps redoubling or splitting adds to the fun.

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. . . it was one of those nights where I couldn't win anything.

LOL @ those nights when the money's gone before the first free drink has arrived.

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I only play with a new shoe,

!!!! So, you always start playing when at a disadvantage. Makes me again think you are doing it for recreation.

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. . . Pretty much flat betting $5 a hand, and even with my weak card counting skills. . .

Assess your game. Use Rome's workbooks to see if you are overbetting your lifetime BR.

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Should I have taken a lot more money with me and "weathered the storm" and continued to play? Or, should I have just stopped when I did, because I ran through my session bankroll? For some reason, having at least 20x the betting unit seems reasonable to me.

No. Have a few hundred set aside in case there is a massively exploitable dealer error, but unless you are playing for profit, don't chase losses at all. If you are playing for profit, you already worked out your hourly EV and know damned well that some sessions or weeks or months would see you down thousands if not tens of thousands, and you would be chilled with that. Just like ZenKing isn't.

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. . after I lost my final bet [a double!]

ALWAYS have enough in reserve to accomodate a hand that keeps doubling or splitting. You'd kick yourself if not enough to cover splitting and resplitting a pair of aces against a 5

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but this guy was almost slamming down his chips after each hand he lost. I thought to myself, at least I'm not losing $700 in a single evening!

Don't want to be that guy, do you?

ps. Gotta laugh at the comments about chinese cards, at which ZK took the bait.

I play until my session length is over (60-120 minutes) or I lose my entire buy-in. So basically, I decide how long I want to play and buy in for about that much. The amount I buy in for comes from experience. I know how much I have to buy in for my sessions to last over an hour most of the time.

Stay within your gambling limits, everything else is psychological. Do you want to have a daily limit? A session limit? You're not counting, this is entertainment. It's all the same. Everything is one big session. Buying in for $300 at one time is the same as three separate $100 buy ins. Do what brings you the most joy.

Blackjack is high variance, it's hard to guarantee long sessions. Hope you find a comfortable level of play. If you're flat betting, https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/

I quit when either:

1) I've lost my bankroll for the trip. That's what it's there for; before I leave the house I mentally prepare myself to lose all of it, so I don't get upset if it happens. Sometimes I break it down by day or session, sometimes I don't.

2) The trip is over and I go home.

Quote: theoriemeister

At what point does one say to oneself, "I'm gettin' my ass kicked and I should quit before I lose my entire session bankroll"?

I would consider OnceDear's multi-comments about playing for recreation vs other reasons. I don't have the experience to match yours, or any of the other posters to your OP, so just take my comments as food for thought. I play with a TRIP bankroll of under $1,000 - my session BR is $100, and I always keep an emergency $50 for that last double down. I understand that APs dislike the idea of , but my play is quite conservative, and I like my TRIP BR to last at least 4-5 days of play. If you've not read Romes's 3 articles, now's a good time!

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-3/

Romes asks 5 questions you need to answer before you play. What is . . .

1. . . . the house edge? (< 0.60 or lower)
2. . . . your bet spread?
3. . . . your session bankroll?
4. . . . your hourly EV (expected value) of the game you’re going to play? and
5. . . . the PEN? Don't play if < 60%, because you'll rarely get a TC high enough (>=2) to merit raising your bet.

There are so many conditions that will affect your choice and style of play. The more experienced posters will surely share more comments.

I appreciate everyone's comments. Yes, first and foremost I am a recreational player, and my session bankroll is $100, which, of course, really limits my spread ($5 - $15). According to WoO, the HE = .57.

My local casino is really just a card room; there are no slots, craps, or roulette. One room is devoted entirely to poker, and the other room is the table games: (ONE! BJ table, three(!) Spanish 21 tables (it's really popular here in the Pacific NW), one Pai Gow table, two tables of other games. That's it. Like I said, really small! But on the plus side, it's a very friendly place; the waitresses know who I am and what I drink, that sort of thing. I enjoy the atmosphere of the place.

Since there's only a single BJ table, waiting until the count is +2 is impractical, because I might have to wait a long time to jump in, if at all. Wouldn't that make me conspicuous? Plus, on a busy night there are sometimes no seats at the table. I do Wong out when the count gets -2, so I suppose that helps a little. (At this place I can sit at the table and "check my messages" while play continues. While in Vegas last week, I was told not to use my phone at the table.) The dealers rotate every 15 minutes, but all of them give at least a 75% PEN (6 decks).

I have read Romes's excellent articles, but should probably re-read them.

And to OnceDear: my last hand was 5-5 v. dealer 6. I double and am dealt a 5. Dealer turns over a 4 and then draws a 9. It was that kind of night! :)

Quote: theoriemeister

I appreciate everyone's comments. . . . .

And to OnceDear: my last hand was 5-5 v. dealer 6. I double and am dealt a 5. Dealer turns over a 4 and then draws a 9. It was that kind of night! :)

Yes it happens. I've had a few sessions where my last hand has been a sh1t or bust situation splitting to 4 hands and doubling some of those.

Enjoy.
ps. read my posts about missing the odd game to take a glug of my drink. Has led to some funny and exploitable dealer errors.

Quote: theoriemeister

my last hand was 5-5 v. dealer 6. I double and am dealt a 5. Dealer turns over a 4 and then draws a 9. It was that kind of night! :)

Hmm,
brings up a simple question.

How often will you win with 5,5 against a Dealer 6?
double down of course (top of shoe)

80%
90%
more??
less??? (casino cheats you?)

I hear my Mom yelling when she plays BJ
(she lives over 1000 miles away)
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

Hmm,
brings up a simple question.

How often will you win with 5,5 against a Dealer 6?
double down of course (top of shoe)

80%
90%
more??
less??? (casino cheats you?)

Show Spoiler

I say 61% of the time you win
32% you lose. ugly it sure is. lol
others will have a different answer

100% loss rate if the decks are made in a Chinese prison.

Wonder if Lucky Dragon uses cheap American made cards??

Hello Theorie

Even when one plays them perfectly, randomized trials such as gambling games can exhibit extremely unbalanced ratios of outcomes. Imagine a normal "bell curve" probability distribution with the mean at approximately zero, which signifies only a small deviation in Expected Value. Although one may reasonably expect to experience a sample distribution near the mean, on very rare occasions one will experience an outlier. There is nothing to be done.

Assuming one follows optimal theoretical play, the only discretion which one really possesses is that of bet sizing. When the outcomes are outrageously imbalanced negatively, one should keep one's bets small. Doing so is counterintuitive and inhuman, of course, because impatience and anger tend to accumulate and interject themselves into the behavior of ordinary humans. Popular terminology includes "chasing" and "taking the steam."

Positive imbalances are of course also possible, and a different betting strategy should be selected at such times.

Quote: theoriemeister

Last week I was in Vegas and took a very small bankroll ($300) with me. I sought out a $5 (3:2) BJ table and lost it in about 3 hours. (I am a very solid basic strategy player.) 2 days later I was at a different casino, bought in for $100, but lost that fairly quickly. I bought in for another hundred, got down to my last $25 but eventually clawed my way back to end up +$25 for the session--and that got me thinking.

At a $5-25 spread (haven't tried $5-15), it is unusual to be +/- $100 in an hour.

Sometimes I tried to make $100 before leaving a table, but it turned out to be much easier to make $75.

One tactic I tried was "leave if 1st three hands are losses" (-$15).

I also tried starting with $20 (best I did was +$1,100, leaving table at +$950).
...with $10 (best leaving table was about $250).
...and with $5 (best about $110).

Small bankroll ('short stack") BJ is very different from long-term edge BJ.
$5-25 needs about $2K-4K bankroll to play through losing streaks.

I've seen people place 1-3 $100 bets to start. If they win, they stop working for the day & leave.
If they lose, they settle down to grinding reds.

Have fun trying different ideas...