What am I missing? - Bust Side Bet

July 6th, 2017 at 3:42:57
I noticed that in several Casinos throughout Europe they have a simple side bet "Bust" that pays 2.5-1 if the Dealer has a point value over 21.

I was kind of intrigued by that because the payout seemed kinda high, I know that the dealer busts around 30% of the time, so a 2-1 payout seemed more reasonable...

And my calculations confirmed my suspicion, according to appendix 2a on WOO, the dealer busts 29.6% of the time in a 6D Stand S17 game....

Outcome Probabilty Payout Return

Bust 0,295977 2.5 - 1 0,7399425
17-BJ 0,704023 -1-1 -0,704023
Total 0,0359195

Player Advantage 3.6%

What is my mistake here? The side bet is offered in multiple casinos, I can't believe they make such a big mistake... The payout is absolutely on a to one basis.
The only thing I'm not sure about is the busting rate of 0.167033 when the dealer gets an ace. In Europe they dont check for an Blackjack because they don't thave a hole card.

Any thoughts on this?

Do you lose the bet if your hand busts first?

Another question: if all the players' hands are resolved before the dealer acts (that is, if every hand is either a BJ or a bust), does the dealer still play out her hand?

Dog Hand

Hi Flynn,

You are looking at the wrong table. You should look at blackjack appendix 2B, not appendix 2A.

Appendix 2B (The tables assume the dealer did not yet peek for blackjack.): Click on Link http://buff.ly/2sKS652

(The following tables show the probability of the dealer forming any given final hand given according to the dealer's up-card. The tables assume the dealer did not yet peek for blackjack. There are 16 total tables, for 1 to 8 decks and whether or not the dealer stands or hits on soft 17. For dealer probabilities after the dealer checks for blackjack please see my blackjack appendix 2A.)

Thanks, this is it! The dealer busts arround 28%. The house edge on that bet is approx 2%. Not bad for a side bet but its not an player advantage unfortunately... Thanks for your help!

Quote: Flynn

Thanks, this is it! The dealer busts arround 28%. The house edge on that bet is approx 2%. Not bad for a side bet but its not an player advantage unfortunately... Thanks for your help!

I beg to differ. Double check your math to see if it's actually 2% HE. Because on higher counts dealer busts a lot easier.

Anyway here's a source that says HE is around 15% and break even is at TC +5

(sorry new members can't post links, look it up on google)

Quote: Confessor

(sorry new members can't post links, look it up on google)

be sure to put in "per count" or "per true count" or something like that because if you just google "dealer bust rate" you'll get pictures of some African-American tattooed fellas...

2% is a rough estimate.... Its a CSM game, so no busting there...