petersoni
petersoni
Joined: May 22, 2017
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May 22nd, 2017 at 10:43:53 PM permalink
I'm going to Panama soon so studying up on Panamanian BJ

I am trying to figure out why I wouldn't double an 11 vs. an Ace in Panama...

If the rule is that I only surrender my initial bet if dealer has a BJ, seems like I would be *more* likely to double in Panama than in Vegas. Wizard's strategy chart says I should double in vegas and hit in Panama.

Vegas rules:
/games/blackjack/strategy/4-decks/

Panama rules:
/games/panama-blackjack/
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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May 23rd, 2017 at 8:39:50 AM permalink
Quote: petersoni

I'm going to Panama soon so studying up on Panamanian BJ

I am trying to figure out why I wouldn't double an 11 vs. an Ace in Panama...

If the rule is that I only surrender my initial bet if dealer has a BJ, seems like I would be *more* likely to double in Panama than in Vegas. Wizard's strategy chart says I should double in vegas and hit in Panama.

Vegas rules:
/games/blackjack/strategy/4-decks/

Panama rules:
/games/panama-blackjack/



Welcome to the forum. I am going to guess here, as I am not an expert, just a moderator.

I think it's a combination of things specific to the Panama rules that add up to hit.

The rule that allows early surrender against an Ace is worth + .39 to the player, but Panama doesn't allow that. Since you can't surrender, and you don't know if dealer has blackjack until after you've acted, it's better for you to hit, and hit again if necessary, than to double down on the Ace and be restricted to 1 card.

Normally, even with early surrender, you will know the dealer doesn't have a blackjack when you decide to double down on the Ace. So you can risk doubling 11 v ace when dealer stands soft 17, as a decisive amount of the time dealer will have a 6 under (1 in 9 hands). If he hits soft 17, that 1 in 9 potentially improves enough to change your double decision to hit.

The dealer (with CSM and NHC) will only blackjack 4/13 hands. You will 21 on 4/13 hands, stand 4 of 13 hands, and want to re-hit 5/13 hands. Even though you only lose your original bet (OBO), it's worth the opportunity to improve a less-than-6 card.

The experts are welcome to correct any misstatements I've made.

Links from the OP:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/4-decks/

https://wizardofodds.com/games/panama-blackjack/
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 23rd, 2017 at 8:59:33 AM permalink
I don't know where in Panama that you will be playing, but I hope you have good luck.

Be advised that if you play tourist and go to the smaller coastal fishing villages you may encounter Panamanian Bingo. Its a sort of mini-bingo played for "knick knack" prizes and conducted by local nuns as a sort of outdoor evening pass time. You can play all evening on five dollars or something trivial like that.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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May 23rd, 2017 at 10:31:58 AM permalink
Quote: petersoni

I am trying to figure out why I wouldn't double an 11 vs. an Ace in Panama...



I am trying to figure out why I said "hit" as well. The surrender and double on three cards rules shouldn't matter. As I wrote, the player loses only the original bet on a dealer blackjack. So I went ahead and changed it to "hit." Somebody tell me if I'm not seeing something here. It would be strange if that alleged error went unreported for years.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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May 25th, 2017 at 2:52:02 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I am trying to figure out why I said "hit" as well. The surrender and double on three cards rules shouldn't matter. As I wrote, the player loses only the original bet on a dealer blackjack. So I went ahead and changed it to "hit." Somebody tell me if I'm not seeing something here. It would be strange if that alleged error went unreported for years.



Changed what to what? Hit to hit? I'm confused.

As to Panama, who that frequents this site goes there to play, and has the knowledge to question the chart? Pretty rare.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
camapl
camapl
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May 25th, 2017 at 2:59:11 AM permalink
The title of this post reminds me of a buddy who got a BJ in Panama ...from a pro while he was stationed there.

He stood behind a hedge that ran along a main thoroughfare and nodded at people as they walked by. He's such a character that I could picture him carrying on conversations with anyone who would partake!
"The future will be better tomorrow."
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
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July 27th, 2017 at 11:37:22 AM permalink
IIRC it is ENHC.
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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July 27th, 2017 at 3:16:08 PM permalink
Assuming I calculated it correctly, this is a close call, but you should double.
Double = -0.2311
Hit = -0.2366

edit: This is for 8,3 v 11. I tried other hand compositions and you should double all of them.
I heart Crystal Math.
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
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July 27th, 2017 at 9:10:32 PM permalink
"Correct" (as in basic strategy or proper index deviations) doubles are always +EV. Keep in mind that doubling is WORSE than hitting in one sense, because you now lose the option to hit again. So for example if you hit with 11 and get a 4, you can at least hit again. But if you double you are just stuck with 15. So if hitting lost at a rate of .236 then doubling would lose at a higher rate than that because of the forced stay on stiffs. But you only ever double in situations where you are winning money.
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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July 28th, 2017 at 6:25:26 AM permalink
Quote: BlackjackGuy123

"Correct" (as in basic strategy or proper index deviations) doubles are always +EV. Keep in mind that doubling is WORSE than hitting in one sense, because you now lose the option to hit again. So for example if you hit with 11 and get a 4, you can at least hit again. But if you double you are just stuck with 15. So if hitting lost at a rate of .236 then doubling would lose at a higher rate than that because of the forced stay on stiffs. But you only ever double in situations where you are winning money.



Yes, it does lose at a higher rate, but the second unit doesn't lose to a blackjack. It doesn't seem right to double when you're still losing, but that happens all the time with splits. You're wagering an extra unit so you can lose less overall.
I heart Crystal Math.

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