25 percent rebate strategy
May 11th, 2017 at 9:55:15 AM
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I've been offered a very generous 25% blackjack rebate on an online casino, this is a one time offer with no cap on the rebate amount and no other stipulations at all.
The black rules of the site are:
Six decks.
Dealer stands on soft 17.
Dealer always peeks for blackjack.
Double after split allowed.
Late surrender allowed.
No re-spltting.
Seven-card Charlie.
The basic strategy house edge under these rules is 0.39%.
Would anybody be able to recommend an optimal strategy here in terms of the correct quitting points (quitting when an exact amount ahead or behind). I've seen some good analysis of this sort of rebate strategies by Eliot Jacobson but am unsure of how to adapt it to the specific rules of my game.
Assume I have an ulimited bank roll for this (I can get people to part finance me if need be)
Any help would be much appreciated
The black rules of the site are:
Six decks.
Dealer stands on soft 17.
Dealer always peeks for blackjack.
Double after split allowed.
Late surrender allowed.
No re-spltting.
Seven-card Charlie.
The basic strategy house edge under these rules is 0.39%.
Would anybody be able to recommend an optimal strategy here in terms of the correct quitting points (quitting when an exact amount ahead or behind). I've seen some good analysis of this sort of rebate strategies by Eliot Jacobson but am unsure of how to adapt it to the specific rules of my game.
Assume I have an ulimited bank roll for this (I can get people to part finance me if need be)
Any help would be much appreciated
May 11th, 2017 at 10:42:47 AM
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Whats the Max bet? Can you play multiple spots?Quote: asdfgh9I've been offered a very generous 25% blackjack rebate on an online casino, this is a one time offer with no cap on the rebate amount and no other stipulations at all.
The black rules of the site are:
Six decks.
Dealer stands on soft 17.
Dealer always peeks for blackjack.
Double after split allowed.
Late surrender allowed.
No re-spltting.
Seven-card Charlie.
The basic strategy house edge under these rules is 0.39%.
Would anybody be able to recommend an optimal strategy here in terms of the correct quitting points (quitting when an exact amount ahead or behind). I've seen some good analysis of this sort of rebate strategies by Eliot Jacobson but am unsure of how to adapt it to the specific rules of my game.
Assume I have an ulimited bank roll for this (I can get people to part finance me if need be)
Any help would be much appreciated
Is there a 24-hour time limit or anything?
Live dealer or RNG?
I know you didn't ask anything about legitimate online casinos and actually getting paid if you win, Legit RNG's and possible cheating. That's all something I would take into consideration. Did you do your research on this casino? Can you name the casino or are you trying to keep the name of the casino anonymous?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 11th, 2017 at 10:46:44 AM
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Quote: asdfgh9online casino
We will be here for you when you either lose 'a few standard deviations' more than you thought, or 'couldn't cash out my winnings'.
May 11th, 2017 at 10:49:28 AM
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You make a fair point, but the casino is run by one of the biggest betting companies in the world so I'm fairly confident on the integrity of the game
May 11th, 2017 at 10:58:41 AM
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Axel,
Max bet is £5000, you can play multiple spots
The time limit is for all bets until the end of April
I can chose between live dealer or RNG - the rules I quoted were for the RNG game, i'm not certain of the rules for the live dealer version
Max bet is £5000, you can play multiple spots
The time limit is for all bets until the end of April
I can chose between live dealer or RNG - the rules I quoted were for the RNG game, i'm not certain of the rules for the live dealer version
May 11th, 2017 at 11:46:40 AM
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I think I found the catch!Quote: asdfgh9The time limit is for all bets until the end of April
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
May 11th, 2017 at 12:53:47 PM
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I'd prefer not to name the casino, but it's one I do a lot of sport betting through so I'm very comfortable with how they operate. Obviously I can't be 100% certain, but I'm 98% confident there won't be any issues
May 11th, 2017 at 12:54:29 PM
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Haha, that should read end of May 2017!
May 11th, 2017 at 1:51:11 PM
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Doing sports betting is 100% different than table games and slot/vp with an online casino. I've won huge wagers sports betting before on some sites and had a problem, where as I never had a problem with big wins on their table games. Just the opposite on other sites I've won big sports and no one blinked an eye and yet when I won 'moderately' on table games it was all hell to actually get paid. Having played on the site, in another fashion, shouldn't give you "that" much confidence.
Sadly, with online and the amount of money you're talking about, you need to make sure you have a backup plan for if they steal your money, give you the shaft, or if you just get unlucky and lose a ton.
Without giving it all away, anytime you have a rebate variance is your friend. You want to take the "free shot" you have at hitting a good win, knowing if you lose you get a chunk of it back.
Sadly, with online and the amount of money you're talking about, you need to make sure you have a backup plan for if they steal your money, give you the shaft, or if you just get unlucky and lose a ton.
Without giving it all away, anytime you have a rebate variance is your friend. You want to take the "free shot" you have at hitting a good win, knowing if you lose you get a chunk of it back.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
May 11th, 2017 at 5:50:02 PM
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Try searching for 'match play strategy,' there is some good stuff out there. I've seen UNLV math department answer questions almost exactly like this. A few minutes of 'guess-and-check' work and I think these are pretty close:
Conservative estimate: quit when up or down 20 max bets. Little less than 50% chance at a 400,000 win and little more than 50% chance of 300,000 loss. Edge of nearly 50,000
Aggressive estimate: quitting point is closer to being up or down 30 max bets. Player advantage of 75,000 minus 0.0039 x 5000 x expected number of hands to reach this point (which should be a few hundred). Past this, the house edge starts to eat away at the advantage too much
I know this isn't exact, but should be close. Or is anyone getting something substantially different?
Conservative estimate: quit when up or down 20 max bets. Little less than 50% chance at a 400,000 win and little more than 50% chance of 300,000 loss. Edge of nearly 50,000
Aggressive estimate: quitting point is closer to being up or down 30 max bets. Player advantage of 75,000 minus 0.0039 x 5000 x expected number of hands to reach this point (which should be a few hundred). Past this, the house edge starts to eat away at the advantage too much
I know this isn't exact, but should be close. Or is anyone getting something substantially different?
May 11th, 2017 at 6:19:28 PM
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I would try to multiply your starting balance by about 5 or go bust trying. Make big bets. I'd suggest 1/3 of your balance each time, to leave room for doubles and splits. If I were running the casino and you did this, it would set off all kinds of red flags with me. If you care about your longevity at this casino, I wouldn't be so aggressive. Perhaps bet 20% of your balance each hand until you triple or go bust.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 11th, 2017 at 6:45:30 PM
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I know you said this was a personal offer. However, there is another way one can get himself similar offers online. If that's what you are attempting, then you know what I'm talking about. If it is that, then I would be careful because they kinda watch for that.Quote: asdfgh9I'd prefer not to name the casino, but it's one I do a lot of sport betting through so I'm very comfortable with how they operate. Obviously I can't be 100% certain, but I'm 98% confident there won't be any issues
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 12th, 2017 at 5:17:04 AM
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Thank you for all the answers,
I was coming to an answer of quitting when 20-30 bets ahead or behind as well. I can't post the link but if you google blackjack loss rebate theorem spreadsheet the top link seems pretty good to me, I think working of that gets me close enough
Axel, I've just happened upon this offer, so not expecting to get it again, but just want to maximize my EV here and assume it's a one time thing
I was coming to an answer of quitting when 20-30 bets ahead or behind as well. I can't post the link but if you google blackjack loss rebate theorem spreadsheet the top link seems pretty good to me, I think working of that gets me close enough
Axel, I've just happened upon this offer, so not expecting to get it again, but just want to maximize my EV here and assume it's a one time thing
May 12th, 2017 at 6:34:57 AM
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How much do you have to lose for the rebate to kick in?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 12th, 2017 at 6:58:01 AM
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There's no minimum
May 12th, 2017 at 8:29:14 AM
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Quote: asdfgh9You make a fair point, but the casino is run by one of the biggest betting companies in the world so I'm fairly confident on the integrity of the game
I'm not.
May 12th, 2017 at 1:36:31 PM
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Quote: asdfgh9There's no minimum
OK, correct me if I'm wrong, but from my understanding of this, it's too good to be true. If you lose a single quid, you only actually lose 75% of one. But every time you win, you win the full amount. And there is only a small edge.
Either I have it all wrong, or this is insane.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 12th, 2017 at 1:48:14 PM
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It's done on net losses so it's not as generous as that, still a very good deal
May 12th, 2017 at 1:49:57 PM
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Out of interest are there any online casinos in the world where you trust the game?
How about any online poker sites?
How about any online poker sites?
May 14th, 2017 at 8:33:04 AM
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Quote: asdfgh9Out of interest are there any online casinos in the world where you trust the game?
I trust none of them and would be infuriated at what goes for normal, even, like having to prove legitimacy with utility bills etc. HOWEVER, the site here says they back up all who advertise here.
Keep us posted if you have decided to go for that rebate.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 14th, 2017 at 10:30:18 AM
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Roughly, the standard deviation is 1.14 (that's close enough), so make the maximum bet allowed at the table and use the stopping points available through the loss rebate calculator.Quote: asdfgh9I've been offered a very generous 25% blackjack rebate on an online casino, this is a one time offer with no cap on the rebate amount and no other stipulations at all.
The black rules of the site are:
Six decks.
Dealer stands on soft 17.
Dealer always peeks for blackjack.
Double after split allowed.
Late surrender allowed.
No re-spltting.
Seven-card Charlie.
The basic strategy house edge under these rules is 0.39%.
Would anybody be able to recommend an optimal strategy here in terms of the correct quitting points (quitting when an exact amount ahead or behind). I've seen some good analysis of this sort of rebate strategies by Eliot Jacobson but am unsure of how to adapt it to the specific rules of my game.
Assume I have an ulimited bank roll for this (I can get people to part finance me if need be)
Any help would be much appreciated
http://advancedadvantageplay.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Loss_Rebate_Theorem.xlsx
With the data you gave, I get a win-quit point of 22.9 units and a loss-quit point of 25.2 units for an expected win of 1.50 units.
Win-quit point 22.8867
Loss-quit point 25.1886
Expected net win 1.4980
Probability of win 48.804%
Effective edge 0.3385%
Expected rounds 442.5
Why do you think this math doesn't apply here?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
May 14th, 2017 at 11:14:47 AM
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Cheers, that looks right to me,
I was using a very slight different spreadsheet he's produced but it gave roughly the same answer
Much appreciated
I was using a very slight different spreadsheet he's produced but it gave roughly the same answer
Much appreciated
May 14th, 2017 at 11:42:38 AM
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He is me. Glad to know you're using the spreadsheets.Quote: asdfgh9Cheers, that looks right to me,
I was using a very slight different spreadsheet he's produced but it gave roughly the same answer
Much appreciated
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
May 15th, 2017 at 11:09:52 AM
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Eliot,
Thank you so much for replying to my message about the rebate strategy, I had no idea you'd be on these forums. The spreadsheets you've produced are incredibly useful as if i'm honest the maths required to calculate these things is a little beyond my capabilities.
If you do have any time to spare, I have a few follow up questions - but if you don't have time or have better things to do I'll understand!
1. You mentioned in one of your 888 casino posts that the spreadsheet numbers come out a little different to when you run things using simulations, do you know what the simulation method would suggest for quitting points for my specific scenario?
2. Why do the casinos offer these rebates, is it just a lack on understanding on their part about just how generous they are? It strikes me as a particularly bad offer from their side since not only can i be 'gamed' using your type of analysis but also even a casual gambler is fairly likely to quit somewhere within the correct quitting points so could accidentally put the game in their favour.
3. The casino I got this offer from uses playtech software do you think I'm right to trust them?
Thank you so much for replying to my message about the rebate strategy, I had no idea you'd be on these forums. The spreadsheets you've produced are incredibly useful as if i'm honest the maths required to calculate these things is a little beyond my capabilities.
If you do have any time to spare, I have a few follow up questions - but if you don't have time or have better things to do I'll understand!
1. You mentioned in one of your 888 casino posts that the spreadsheet numbers come out a little different to when you run things using simulations, do you know what the simulation method would suggest for quitting points for my specific scenario?
2. Why do the casinos offer these rebates, is it just a lack on understanding on their part about just how generous they are? It strikes me as a particularly bad offer from their side since not only can i be 'gamed' using your type of analysis but also even a casual gambler is fairly likely to quit somewhere within the correct quitting points so could accidentally put the game in their favour.
3. The casino I got this offer from uses playtech software do you think I'm right to trust them?
