When taking insurance is a good bet

I used to count cards but have gotten sick of the constant heat, attitudes, and swings of BJ and have turned to poker.

One thing I found interesting though is basically the worst bet in BJ can become the best bet in the casino when the count is favorable. When else can you get 2:1 when the true odds are say,3:2(nonten to ten ratio of 18:12)
My question is, what count should you use to determine this ratio? The count at the beginning of the deal or the count after cards are visible on the table and the Ace is showing? Granted there is more info after the cards are showing but how accurate is this, because the down card was dealt early in the deal.

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The only count that would be perfectly accurate in this regard would be the Thorp Tens count, where the only two quantities counted are "tens" and "non-tens". Anytime the ratio of non-tens to tens falls below 2:1, you have a profitable insurance bet.

A hi-lo count usally uses Aces and tens as "high" and 2-6 as "low", so the ignoring of 7-9s and the counting of Aces as high distorts the count for insurance purposes; all other things being equal, though, it's still a good idea to insure in a true count of +2 or higher.

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Quote: clarkacal

... the worst bet in BJ can become the best bet in the casino when the count is favorable.

When the count is favorable! Well, its all I can do to count my hand value. Usually that takes so long that the dealer announces if for me. Now I've never had the dealer also announce the current count to me and I doubt I ever will hear a dealer tell me what the count is, so I'm pretty much limited to a very simple rule: Never take insurance!!

On-edit: It does show that for those who are really sharp (ie, can add) there are opportunities. Such opportunities can be in strange places such as occasional bingo progressives or bingo games that are very late on a rainy night or such opportunities can be under unusual circumstances, such as in BJ under favorable counts, but they do exist.

Addition, remaining sober, ... as they say: Blackjack is a game of skill!

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I don't think this is as simple as you guys are making it sound. The whole idea of card counting is to gather info about the remaining cards in the deck and what cards will be coming next. The down card was dealt before many of the up cards on the table you are gathering info from. An analogy would be to shuffle a deck of cards, take the top card off the deck, and count halfway through the remaining deck. Can this count be used for info on that top card when the count was even when it was first taken off the top?

Quote: clarkacal

An analogy would be to shuffle a deck of cards, take the top card off the deck, and count halfway through the remaining deck. Can this count be used for info on that top card when the count was even when it was first taken off the top?

Yes, it can. It does not matter what it was when the card was taken off the deck. There is nothing special about that particular moment.
You can split the deck in halves, and deal the bottom half first, and then turn to the top one - would this also invalidate the count in your view (all the cards in the top half were taken off the deck before you started counting)?

The count reflects the cards you have seen, regardless of where the unseen ones are - on the deck, in the burned pile, in the dealer's sleeve, it does not matter.
All that matters is that if you have seen a lot more low cards than high cards so far, then there are more than usual high cards that you still have not seen, and if there are more unseen high cards, it's more likely than one of them is held by the dealer.

Weaselman I tend to agree with you. But I remember one instance about 10 yrs ago which really made me think. I was counting at the old Harrahs in Tunica at a 2 deck BJ table. The dealer shuffled the cards and put the cut card at a juicy 3/4 to 7/8 back. But then I was shocked to see them burn a clump of about 15 cards from the top. These cards are no longer in play, and there is no chance of you ever seeing them later in the shoe. Since you are starting at a neutral count all your info and betting strategies will range from a little off to waaay off.

Yes, those 15 are gone in the same exact way as the ones behind the cut card, no difference.

Quote: clarkacal

Weaselman I tend to agree with you. But I remember one instance about 10 yrs ago which really made me think. I was counting at the old Harrahs in Tunica at a 2 deck BJ table. The dealer shuffled the cards and put the cut card at a juicy 3/4 to 7/8 back. But then I was shocked to see them burn a clump of about 15 cards from the top. These cards are no longer in play, and there is no chance of you ever seeing them later in the shoe. Since you are starting at a neutral count all your info and betting strategies will range from a little off to waaay off.

What seems to be garbaging up your thinking is your failure to realize that an unseen card is an unseen card. It doesn't matter whether it is a burned card (or cards), a dealt card that is face down, or a card behind the cut card that will never be dealt.

The situation you described simply added 15 cards to the number of cards behind the cut card. You were starting from a neutral count, as you noted--it didn't actually matter how many cards were burned. All that matters, for the purpose of counting, is how many cards are SEEN.

Quote: mkl654321

All that matters, for the purpose of counting, is how many cards are SEEN.

... and how many are UNSEEN :)


clarkacal, look at it this way. Take a card off the top of the deck, and put it aside. Now deal the entire remaining deck, and count it. Suppose, you end up with 1. Now you can tell exactly what the value of the first card is, even though back when it was taken off the deck the count was zero. It does not matter when it is taken off, only when you actually see it.