D Day in Vegas
Careful with this mentality and a small sampling size.Quote: ZenKinGAll i know is as soon as i went back to my pure wong PA approach, im up like 15k in 30 hrs lol betting only 2x250 max bet...
Say your EV is +$80k for the year. Well, say on that journey your BR line goes up and down and up and down... You know, regular variance and blackjack. Well, say you're on a down swing and you say "man, I'm gonna try some new count, or just wong, etc, etc, etc" then you have a NATURAL upswing in your BR along that graph... You might attribute it to your new technique, but it could have literally absolutely nothing to do with it. Do not attribute your short term success to this new style/technique until it's proven itself over hundreds and hundreds of hours.
Quote: RomesCareful with this mentality and a small sampling size.
Say your EV is +$80k for the year. Well, say on that journey your BR line goes up and down and up and down... You know, regular variance and blackjack. Well, say you're on a down swing and you say "man, I'm gonna try some new count, or just wong, etc, etc, etc" then you have a NATURAL upswing in your BR along that graph... You might attribute it to your new technique, but it could have literally absolutely nothing to do with it. Do not attribute your short term success to this new style/technique until it's proven itself over hundreds and hundreds of hours.
Yeah I'm aware of that, but even back home, my pure wong was the main reason I could grow my roll. My biggest losses always came when I played heads up and spread to 2 hands heads up and almost makes me think 2 hands heads up is -ev, because it's been that bad, but of course logic tells me that's nonsense. Of course it's still a small sampling size, but my biggest losses were always heads up WITH 2 hands and I'm talking huge losses. When I pure wong I almost never have a huge loss, just weird, or maybe some selective memory as well has kicked in. Maybe I should do as the books say and just play 1 hand heads up. Problem with 1 hand is I just dont feel that comfortable betting $350 or $400 on one spot, i feel a lot more comfortable with 2x250 and if done right goes a lot more unnoticed than a big stack of $400 green in the circle. 2 hands also reduces variance to some degree even though it has the co-variance aspect to it, it's a much smoother line up the graph than just playing one hand.
I have noticed though, that pure wonging in vegas is not very well tolerated and has resulted in much more heat than in PA, but because my bankroll was falling like an avalanche in the beginning, I had no choice, but to only play positive counts from then on. The heat in vegas from this approach seems to be because of the less number of tables and so it just looks awkward someone hovering around tables LOL.
The key point here is I was doing the exact same thing.
Eh? Vegas is quantity, not quality... You should be able to massive spread your play around enough not to get in too much trouble. Dozens and Dozens of casinos, 3 separate shifts per casino, different days of the week, etc, etc...Quote: ZenKinG...he heat in vegas from this approach seems to be because of the less number of tables and so it just looks awkward someone hovering around tables LOL.
Quote: RomesEh? Vegas is quantity, not quality... You should be able to massive spread your play around enough not to get in too much trouble. Dozens and Dozens of casinos, 3 separate shifts per casino, different days of the week, etc, etc...
I don't spend more than a half hour at each place and yet i got picked off twice already. 2nd time I didn't even place a bet but as soon as I jumped in they referred to me by my name and said sorry (insert name) you cannot play, sorry. I think they zoomed in on my phone and got my name, which would be an invasion of privacy and I can sue. Unless my first back off last month they re-winded the tape and saw me give ID to the dealer and took a photo? I dont know how casinos would know my name since I never provided ID other than to dealers for age verification.
Quote: ZenKinGI don't spend more than a half hour at each place and yet i got picked off twice.
Wonging in is easily picked off. Especially doing it solo.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWonging in is easily picked off. Especially doing it solo.
Not if there are many pits, which many casinos don't seem to have at least not 3/2 pits, so it does look a bit awkward at times. I guess I was spoiled back home when I played in PA.
Quote: ZenKinGNot if there are many pits, which many casinos don't seem to have at least not 3/2 pits, so it does look a bit awkward at times. I guess I was spoiled back home when I played in PA.
Definitely easier with many pits. But it doesn't take long to figure someone out when they just watch shoe after shoe then sporadically jump in with big bets in only a few of them.
Quote: IbeatyouracesDefinitely easier with many pits. But it doesn't take long to figure someone out when they just watch shoe after shoe then sporadically jump in with big bets in only a few of them.
Well i never watch the same shoe after i just finished it, idk if you were alludimg to that or different shoes within the same pit. Back in PA i logged over 150 hrs at each of them before i got picked off. I would just backcount and move quickly to another shoe for 5 hr sessions LOL.
I feel like Vegas is much sharper and so I try to keep sessions much shorter, but it hasnt made a difference lol
Quote: ZenKinGI don't spend more than a half hour at each place and yet i got picked off twice already. 2nd time I didn't even place a bet but as soon as I jumped in they referred to me by my name and said sorry (insert name) you cannot play, sorry. I think they zoomed in on my phone and got my name, which would be an invasion of privacy and I can sue. Unless my first back off last month they re-winded the tape and saw me give ID to the dealer and took a photo? I dont know how casinos would know my name since I never provided ID other than to dealers for age verification.
Zen.... you gave me a real LOL moment!
"Your honor, I am suing MGM casinos because I was addressed by my name at a blackjack table! How did they know my name, you may ask? Well of course they "zoomed in on my phone"!
The judge rules in your favor for $1,000,000....
Quote: SOOPOOZen.... you gave me a real LOL moment!
"Your honor, I am suing MGM casinos because I was addressed by my name at a blackjack table! How did they know my name, you may ask? Well of course they "zoomed in on my phone"!
The judge rules in your favor for $1,000,000....
How did you know it was MGM.. hmmm. Maybe it was you that zoomed in on me or a fellow co-worker and now you're getting nervous? I hope you destroy that tape before I get it.
Im done posting sensitive info about me on here. I honestly trust no one. I feel like my first backoff came because someone from the forums ratted me out after I was arguing and calling people out. It's alright just more adversity for me to overcome like always. Who knows how many connections you people have with the insiders in vegas.
Quote: ZenKinGHow did you know it was MGM.. hmmm. Maybe it was you that zoomed in on me or a fellow co-worker and now you're getting nervous? I hope you destroy that tape before I get it.
Im done posting sensitive info about me on here. I honestly trust no one. I feel like my first backoff came because someone from the forums ratted me out after I was arguing and calling people out. It's alright just more adversity for me to overcome like always. Who knows how many connections you people have with the insiders in vegas.
I seriously doubt anybody here ratted you out. Seriously. I know most of the people you met from here, and they simply wouldn't do that.
If nothing else, you fit a profile. You get your ID checked. You think they can't zoom in on an ID a dealer is holding? That's what you're kidding yourself about.
They see you wonging. They see you putting large bets up. They're going to watch for you after just one exposure like that, especially in a chain; all you have to do at an MGM property is get someone's attention at any of 10 or so places, and you're on their internal wire.
You said you were in OSN from PA, right? That, plus a shot of your ID with your picture, name and birthday to match would do it. Then it's up to how vigilant the floor is, and you're gone.
I'm genuinely offended your first thought is to blame someone here.
Quote: ZenKinGHow did you know it was MGM.. hmmm. Maybe it was you that zoomed in on me or a fellow co-worker and now you're getting nervous? I hope you destroy that tape before I get it.
Im done posting sensitive info about me on here. I honestly trust no one. I feel like my first backoff came because someone from the forums ratted me out after I was arguing and calling people out. It's alright just more adversity for me to overcome like always. Who knows how many connections you people have with the insiders in vegas.
Yikes ZK! I am just a hard working doctor who has in interest in the math of gambling, and the way it works in real life. I can assure you I did not know it was MGM, but was making up a hypothetical. I think you are a funny guy. I will be in Vegas in February. If you trust that I am not working for the dark side, I'll buy you a drink.
SOOPOO, you must have one hell of a zoom feature on your camera! ;)Quote: ZenKinGHow did you know it was MGM.. hmmm. Maybe it was you that zoomed in on me or a fellow co-worker and now you're getting nervous?
When you consider all BJ tables in Vegas, vs. those owned by MGM, you probably had a 1 in 3 chance of your hypothetical being correct.Quote: SOOPOOI can assure you I did not know it was MGM, but was making up a hypothetical.
Soopoo, it is speedycrap. Will u be at Vegas before Super Bowl? I like to place a bet please. 4 Feb.Quote: SOOPOOYikes ZK! I am just a hard working doctor who has in interest in the math of gambling, and the way it works in real life. I can assure you I did not know it was MGM, but was making up a hypothetical. I think you are a funny guy. I will be in Vegas in February. If you trust that I am not working for the dark side, I'll buy you a drink.
Quote: speedycrapSoopoo, it is speedycrap. Will u be at Vegas before Super Bowl? I like to place a bet please. 4 Feb.
Nope. GF Bday is Feb 10. So then.....
Quote: mcallister3200I did not rat zk out
I did.
I ratted him out by communicating all of his salient details to the casinos via telepathic projection.
Ah, now I can sleep the sleep of the just.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Quote: beachbumbabsI seriously doubt anybody here ratted you out. Seriously. I know most of the people you met from here, and they simply wouldn't do that.
Shortly after our meetup, I was POISONED, and ZK got backed off for the first time.
COINCIDENCE?!
Quote: MrVI did.
I ratted him out by communicating all of his salient details to the casinos via telepathic projection.
Ah, now I can sleep the sleep of the just.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
You were one of the suspects because I think I remember calling you a degenerate and shortly after I got backed off.
Quote: ZenKinGYou were one of the suspects because I think I remember calling you a degenerate and shortly after I got backed off.
You see?
Telepathy rocks.
Quote: ZenKinGI never said i was accusing anyone with who met up with me. I was saying it was maybe someome on this forum who i angered or called out at one point. Im sure it was none of you and i was just once again a bit paranoid. Sorry if my accusations came across condescending or hurtful. Im sure many of you dont even care lol, but beachbum seemed to take an insult to it
Hi ZK.
First, let me assure you that I didn't rat you out. I live in the UK and have no contacts on the dark side.
Also let me congratulate you on having ( if all you say is true) made a decent stab at APing in vegas for proper income. Your posts are at least interesting.
Sometimes, especially recently, you seem to have ascribed lucky winning to skill and before that you ascribed unlucky losing to casino mischief. I reckon that in truth, you know that neither is the case: Just ordinary variance.
I really hope you set aside such paranoia and self praise and continue to have decent returns on your invested energy without too much bad variance.
All that said, your aggressive wonging and $xxx sized bets must, JUST MUST stick out like a sore thumb to the pit and the eye in the sky. Such aggressive backcounting must surely work better in a team setting? Consider partnerships with others in your situation?
Quote: SOOPOONope. GF Bday is Feb 10. So then.....
I plan on being in Vegas on the 10th. Maybe we could meet up. I always enjoying a chance to chat with people in RL from the forums.
Im completely distraught now. Im back in the red. This is freaking laughable. Fuckimg corrupt city and dirty indians.
Quote: ZenKinGdirty indians.
Native Americans is the preferred nomenclature.
Quote: ZenKinGTime to put the 51.5k in the index fund and get a job with my degree.
This is among the smartest thing I've heard you say yet.
If you do that, dollar cost averaging is a total AP move. I do that and, if you get a job next door to a casino or two you can still AP on your lunch hour and in your spare time. That's what I do and my net worth has gone up about 100k / yr for the last 3 years. Don't expect results like this year 1. I'm 20 years into a career.
Also, check out the gambling with an edge podcast a few weeks ago with a guy named Yoshi. You might be in the wrong part of the country. I'm pretty certain I'd be worse off in Las Vegas or on the east coast.
Oh, and remember Babs asked you to clean your room. :-)
Quote: prozemaThis is among the smartest thing I've heard you say yet.
If you do that, dollar cost averaging is a total AP move. I do that and, if you get a job next door to a casino or two you can still AP on your lunch hour and in your spare time. That's what I do and my net worth has gone up about 100k / yr for the last 3 years. Don't expect results like this year 1. I'm 20 years into a career.
Also, check out the gambling with an edge podcast a few weeks ago with a guy named Yoshi. You might be in the wrong part of the country. I'm pretty certain I'd be worse off in Las Vegas or on the east coast.
Oh, and remember Babs asked you to clean your room. :-)
I've just run so badly. You got guys like Yoshi taking 3k and supposedly turning it into 300k? I mean really? Just constant adversity I have to deal with. After 1000 hours I only made 40k and that's not taking into account all the driving and walking ive done. I think it's time to get a job, learn a trade, park the funds in one of the index funds I talked about before and just play blackjack part time. It was one thing counting cards while living at home rent free, but with added expenses its just been too stressful. Im also convinced I've been cheated, that's how bad it's been and I still made 40k. Whatever.
Quote: ZenKinGI've just run so badly. You got guys like Yoshi taking 3k and supposedly turning it into 300k? I mean really? Just constant adversity I have to deal with. After 1000 hours I only made 40k and that's not taking into account all the driving and walking ive done. I think it's time to get a job, learn a trade, park the funds in one of the index funds I talked about before and just play blackjack part time. It was one thing counting cards while living at home rent free, but with added expenses its just been too stressful. Im also convinced I've been cheated, that's how bad it's been and I still made 40k. Whatever.
Look man, it sucks when you are running bad... I get it because I've been there.
I really don't think you are being cheated. You are betting big on an advantage of 1 or 2%. I didn't do the math, but I'm guessing you would need a rolling million plus hands before you are guaranteed $1 of profit. That $50k bank roll is only one hundred $500 bets. On top of that, you need to eat with that money.
Sir, in my opinion you are in extreme danger. You have or will soon have scared money. Moving back in with Mom will feel awful. Make a move while you still have options.
I'm not trying to be a jerk. I'm trying to help you. But I am a jerk, so sometimes I can't help it. :-)
Seriously though... I do get a kick out of you.
Disclaimer:. I am fully aware that there are at least a dozen guys (probably more) on this board that are 100x more talented than I when it comes to casino AP. What I know is that I'm not one of those guys and I play as such. If you are one of those guys, then disregard everything I've said.
One other thing. EV is a bird in the bush. It's half as valuable as a bird in your hand. Think about it. How many times did you hit 16 against a 10 and catch a winner? No one ever gives 1/2 of that win back because of EV.
Quote: ZenKinGJust dropped 3600 in two consecutive shoes at Pl. Hollywood. I definitely got short shoed. Both times the RC shot up to +25 within the first 2 decks and i got completely cleaned out both times. I even made them spread the cards and it ended in +. Problem is its inconclusive because the idiot dealer had already taken a piece of the remaining cards and plugged it into the discard tray.
Im completely distraught now. Im back in the red. This is freaking laughable. Fuckimg corrupt city and dirty indians.
I don't ask much of you. I let you rant. But you've been warned several times. The f-bombs have to stop. 3 days.
Quote: tyler49840K over 1000 is 40$/hour, consistently, tax free. Playing a fun game on the hours you want, using a skill that takes few dozen hours to master, not taking shit from any boss. Man that's a lot of complaining for such a sweet deal....
Word. Good point.
Quote: tyler49840K over 1000 is 40$/hour, consistently, tax free. Playing a fun game on the hours you want, using a skill that takes few dozen hours to master, not taking shit from any boss. Man that's a lot of complaining for such a sweet deal....
Not sure what you mean by "tax free", care to elaborate?
Sure, there are certainly benefits to being an AP. But counting cards, grinding out the hours, isn't necessarily "fun" like gambling is for most people. It's work, just like any other job -- oftentimes, it sucks. Sure we love our job, but that doesn't mean it's always fun.
Also there are plenty of downsides, like the fact you can lose money and you will go through significant periods of time where all you're doing is losing. It takes a long time of play before you're significantly likely to be ahead. On top of that, an AP has bills to pay. It's not like (most) regular jobs where your only risk of not making money is if you get fired from your job.
Quote: tyler49840K over 1000 is 40$/hour, consistently, tax free. Playing a fun game on the hours you want, using a skill that takes few dozen hours to master, not taking shit from any boss. Man that's a lot of complaining for such a sweet deal....
A couple problems though. One, it's obviously not fun for him. Two, he's going to end up being arrested with the way things are going.
He's best having a real job with a 401k and benefits.
ZCore13
Quote: MaxPen
More like,
What ,in any of his posts, leads you to think he is having fun?
Quote: billryan$40 an hour is great, if you can do it thirty or four hours a week. I think the op has been playing over a year so you have to divide the money by weeks, not hours.
What ,in any of his posts, leads you to think he is having fun?
Although I have never met ZK I suspect he is like my brother. My brother thrives on drama. It's the same old things over and over. I suspect the if he had nothing to complain about he would be more unhappy. The economic concept of utility (I like to think of utils, the unit of utility, as happy points) works a lot like EV.
Just as a .5% house advantage is better than a 10% house advantage (even though both will lighten your wallet), a person that is less unhappy is better off than a person that is more unhappy.
Quote: tyler49840K over 1000 is 40$/hour, consistently, tax free. Playing a fun game on the hours you want, using a skill that takes few dozen hours to master, not taking shit from any boss. Man that's a lot of complaining for such a sweet deal....
Sweet deal? "Tax free" means you are committing a federal crime...... 1000 hours does not include the dead time when you can't find a good game...... "A fun game"? Is it really fun when you are doing it for a living? I find BJ about the most boring game..... And I can't tell you how much extra you would have to pay me to work EVERY DAY in an environment where half the people are cigarette smokers...... Not to mention the Russian Roulette he is playing by likely not having health insurance....
But, Tyler, in general I agree with you as far as ZK complaining...... He is aware of all MY complaints about the lifestyle.... but chose to pursue it anyway....
Quote: SOOPOOSweet deal? "Tax free" means you are committing a federal crime...... 1000 hours does not include the dead time when you can't find a good game...... "A fun game"? Is it really fun when you are doing it for a living? I find BJ about the most boring game..... And I can't tell you how much extra you would have to pay me to work EVERY DAY in an environment where half the people are cigarette smokers...... Not to mention the Russian Roulette he is playing by likely not having health insurance....
But, Tyler, in general I agree with you as far as ZK complaining...... He is aware of all MY complaints about the lifestyle.... but chose to pursue it anyway....
AND YOU KIDS BETTER GET OFF MY LAWN !!
Quote: MaxPen
Hey. I have that brochure. Great advice!
Quote: prozemaThis is among the smartest thing I've heard you say yet.
If you do that, dollar cost averaging is a total AP move. I do that and, if you get a job next door to a casino or two you can still AP on your lunch hour and in your spare time. That's what I do and my net worth has gone up about 100k / yr for the last 3 years. Don't expect results like this year 1. I'm 20 years into a career.
Also, check out the gambling with an edge podcast a few weeks ago with a guy named Yoshi. You might be in the wrong part of the country. I'm pretty certain I'd be worse off in Las Vegas or on the east coast.
Oh, and remember Babs asked you to clean your room. :-)
Yeah, I think anyone with a University degree is wasting their life attempting to count cards in Vegas unless it is absolutely pleasurable -- I just see that kind of life as a slog, in my opinion. I understand that there are many on this forum who enjoy the lifestyle and have made plays that make their life better than full-time work. But I think most of the people who are APing either fell into it or decided that a conventional job doesn't fit their lifestyles. ZK didn't even give it a chance.
I would venture to say that it is not easy to have a typical life with marriage, kids, etc and carry an AP lifestyle. You would have to have a key partner who understands the swings and a schedule that supports your children.
Quote: Zcore13A couple problems though. One, it's obviously not fun for him. Two, he's going to end up being arrested with the way things are going.
He's best having a real job with a 401k and benefits.
ZCore13
Correct. His threats to get violent the next time he is backed off is disconcerting at best and will end him up completely blacklisted from all casinos.
As for someone on this forum ratting him out, ridiculous.
