D Day in Vegas

Quote: ontariodealer

Casino's don't have to cheat, they just have to open the doors everyday.

I don't believe it's happening, but I don't like that argument either. There have been cases where the gaming industry was caught cheating. I would have to believe there have been many times where they have not been caught.

If the casinos were caught with short decks they would just blame the card manufacturers and toss someone under the bus. They would come up with some BS claiming this is something that only recently started happening(perhaps they would claim someone new at the factory just started who made this mistake). They would simply tell everyone they were going to use a different card manufacturer and they have come up with new procedures to ensure this would never happen again. I am 100% certain no casino would lose their license. They might get a fine, one that is small in comparison to the money they had already made.

Quote: ZenKinG

BOOM. Just like that im FINALLY in the GREEN

+175 / 104 hrs

I think you mean finally in the BLACK? =D Good to hear that all you had to do was GET MORE DAMN HANDS and the math would start to work itself out.

Quote: ZenKinG

...Rumor has it, japanese cards have been in circulation for the past 2 weeks after Gaming cracked down on them. Thanks to this thread.

This is your slippery slope. Just because you saw an EXPECTED turn in your bankroll is NOT some form of confirmation that casinos were cheating you, in any way, shape, or form. The only confirmation you could have is to play 50k-70k hands and still be outside 3SD. Since you did not do that, you have zero proof... Please don't use this as a reason of "I knew I was getting cheated" not for name sake, but for your mentality towards AP. You must have the proper mentality in understanding and trusting the math.

All in all, congrats that things are swinging (as expected) towards the profits =).

What's the over/under on when the next 10k downswing is?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

What's the over/under on when the next 10k downswing is?

Honestly, I'll bet you that if he keeps playing the same and plugging hands in regularly, that he won't see the red again after he gets up $5k-$10k...

Quote: Romes

Honestly, I'll bet you that if he keeps playing the same and plugging hands in regularly, that he won't see the red again after he gets up $5k-$10k...

I'm not saying he'll end up back in the hole, I'm just talking about a 10k downswing. Like going from +27k to +17k.

This thread is no fun unless there's complaining. 🤣

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'm not saying he'll end up back in the hole, I'm just talking about a 10k downswing. Like going from +27k to +17k.

This thread is no fun unless there's complaining. 🤣

Ah, well just for kicks and giggles I'd guess between hours 300-400.

Quote: ZenKinG

BOOM. Just like that im FINALLY in the GREEN

+175 / 104 hrs

Rumor has it, japanese cards have been in circulation for the past 2 weeks after Gaming cracked down on them. Thanks to this thread.

Congratulations on making $1.6826923077 an hour. 😁

Quote: Romes

I think you mean finally in the BLACK? =D Good to hear that all you had to do was GET MORE DAMN HANDS and the math would start to work itself out.

This is your slippery slope. Just because you saw an EXPECTED turn in your bankroll is NOT some form of confirmation that casinos were cheating you, in any way, shape, or form. The only confirmation you could have is to play 50k-70k hands and still be outside 3SD. Since you did not do that, you have zero proof... Please don't use this as a reason of "I knew I was getting cheated" not for name sake, but for your mentality towards AP. You must have the proper mentality in understanding and trusting the math.

All in all, congrats that things are swinging (as expected) towards the profits =).

Thanks again man. By the way, I was being sarcastic about the japanese cards, i just made that up to have some fun lol. Like i said before ive been through a downswing like this before in PA(twice actually) and came out of it both times, but what really bothered me like ive said many times before was the 'timing' of this losing streak. To get to a new city and living on my own for the first time, ive been pretty stressed out. Just was hoping for a bit of an easier transition to a new city.

Lets see what happens from here going forward. Hopefully i can get to +5k soon for my mental sake. Ive been sick of being in the negative.

Quote: ZenKinG

...Lets see what happens from here going forward. Hopefully i can get to +5k soon for my mental sake. Ive been sick of being in the negative.

Well since you're right on the borderline be prepared to jump both ways and maybe hop back and forth a bit more before you take off in the right direction. As mentioned above though, if you keep your head on your shoulders and keep getting hands I believe you'll win.

How much EV have you generated? What about +/-1 SD?

Obviously you figured out a way to cheat the cheaters.

*golf clap*

Quote: RS

How much EV have you generated? What about +/-1 SD?

Around 5k, I would say and a SD of around -0.5. Hard to put an exact number on either of them due to me mixing up playing strategies and then eventually having to lower my bet size after the losing streak. Played a lot of heads up early on, but more recently went back to my pure backcounting approach that I used in PA and ive done really well.

After running the sims, it gives me a rough estimate around the 5k mark if i plug in every style and bet size i have used and around -0.5 SD. All in all, things could be worse, im pleased for now with the rebound.

Congratulations on turning it around. Please, no more whining about how terrible your life is.

Quote: ZenKinG

...Played a lot of heads up early on, but more recently went back to my pure backcounting approach that I used in PA and ive done really well...

Hmm, I'll be intrigued to see if you keep pure wonging and how that affects your heat levels. I'd imagine this would get spotted a slight bit more than your average counter, but I'm not really sure pending how crowded of places you go to/etc.

Do you flat bet or change your spread at all when you're backcounting?

Quote: ZenKinG

im pleased for now with the rebound.

So are your parents. They are probably terrified at the thought of you returning home to live with them again (-;

Quote: AxelWolf

So are your parents. They are probably terrified at the thought of you returning home to live with them again (-;

Aren't they all ;-)

Quote: Romes

Aren't they all ;-)

Some parents fear it more than others.

I was just thinking....There is not enough tinfoil in the world to go around for Zenking and Maxpen.

Quote: AxelWolf

I was just thinking....There is not enough tinfoil in the world to go around for Zenking and Maxpen.

But ironically enough, I think instead of tinfoiling together, they both think the others tinfoil comments are silly. Hi, have we met? I'm Irony... =)

This is truly laughable. So heres the story. I take a week off after i get in the green. I then proceed to keep winnimg until +800 for the whole trip, which puts me exactly at my all time high. I kid you noy as soon as i touch my all time i then proceed to lose around 1500 in two shoes. God forbid i crosd my all time high. This is the exact shit i tell you guys. Its the srupidest small things that make me go absolutely insane. Its like god literally just trolls me in my life. Seriously, i mean what are the chances you touch your all time high literally by the exact dollar and not win one exact bet to go over the hump? Its just truly disgusting. This is why i say im cursed and also why i say im the best. Just look at that garbage. My life is just one big troll.

I know we are at our all time only 2% of the time, but seriously, i cant win just one more bet to get over the hump. Its completely laughable. I really dont know what to say. If theres somebody out there more cursed than me at AP, i would love to meet them.

-737.50 / 107.5 hours

Wow.
Nuff Said.

Oy vay ZK, just oy vay.

At it again.😳🙄

Thin edges are sharp.😜

You guys can say whatever you want and with your sarcasm as well, but no one can sit here and tell me how sickening that is. God forbid i crossed my all time high. How the hell do you literally hit your all-time high nearly exact and then right then and there have your worst shoe that you havent had since you were down -9300. I mean that's the definition of sick. Prior to this -1500 shoe I didnt have one -1k+ shoe let alone a -300+ shoe, but as soon as I touch my all time, god forbid I go over it, i then have my worst shoe in recent time. Sickening, disgusting, ridiculous. I dont care what anyone says, but there's seriously some witchcraft going on in my life. Then again this happens only to the best players. Just look at Phil Helmuth, he has the most bracelets, and he gets the most ridiculous beats time and time again. Then again, me and Phil are almost identical in how serious we take it with the same outbursts.

Once again it's not the losing, just the most idiotic simple things that really irk me. Like seriously, what are the chances that happens. Touching an all time high basically on the dollar, and not being able to win one more bet and then to have your worst shoe right after in recent time. LOL. Im done, rant over. This is just too sick. God bless me.

Phil Hellmuth did the right thing, for himself, and married a psychologist. Might be something to think about.🤓

Quote: ZenKinG

You guys can say whatever you want and with your sarcasm as well, but no one can sit here and tell me how sickening that is. God forbid i crossed my all time high. How the hell do you literally hit your all-time high nearly exact and then right then and there have your worst shoe that you havent had since you were down -9300. I mean that's the definition of sick. Prior to this -1500 shoe I didnt have one -1k+ shoe let alone a -300+ shoe, but as soon as I touch my all time, god forbid I go over it, i then have my worst shoe in recent time. Sickening, disgusting, ridiculous. I dont care what anyone says, but there's seriously some witchcraft going on in my life. Then again this happens only to the best players. Just look at Phil Helmuth, he has the most bracelets, and he gets the most ridiculous beats time and time again. Then again, me and Phil are almost identical in how serious we take it with the same outbursts.

Once again it's not the losing, just the most idiotic simple things that really irk me. Like seriously, what are the chances that happens. Touching an all time high basically on the dollar, and not being able to win one more bet and then to have your worst shoe right after in recent time. LOL. Im done, rant over. This is just too sick. God bless me.

Who or what do you think is causing your "troll life"? If there is an effect (your life being trolled) there must be a cause.

Aliens?

Quote: sodawater

Who or what do you think is causing your "troll life"? If there is an effect (your life being trolled) there must be a cause.

Aliens?

Haven't you bean following? He's cursed by
G-d lol.

Yes you should just be able to keep winning all the time.....unless you are cursed!!


When you gained all the money back that you were down the curse must have been lifted or else the spirits were just messing with ya. Those bastards!

Quote: MaxPen

Phil Hellmuth did the right thing, for himself, and married a psychologist. Might be something to think about.🤓

Reminds me of a poem...

There's a breathless hush in the Close to-night -
Ten to make and the match to win -
A bumping pitch and a blinding light,
An hour to play and the last man in.
And it's not for the sake of a ribboned coat,
Or the selfish hope of a season's fame,
But his Captain's hand on his shoulder smote
"Play up! play up! and play the game!"

The sand of the desert is sodden red, -
Red with the wreck of a square that broke; -
The Gatling's jammed and the colonel dead,
And the regiment blind with dust and smoke.
The river of death has brimmed his banks,
And England's far, and Honour a name,
But the voice of schoolboy rallies the ranks,
"Play up! play up! and play the game!"

This is the word that year by year
While in her place the School is set
Every one of her sons must hear,
And none that hears it dare forget.
This they all with a joyful mind
Bear through life like a torch in flame,
And falling fling to the host behind -
"Play up! play up! and play the game!"

Quote: ZenKinG

You guys can say whatever you want and with your sarcasm as well, but no one can sit here and tell me how sickening that is...

Yeah, actually we've been telling you over and over and over and over again just how wild the swings in BJ are. From max up one day to mass down another to max up again another day. It's the roller-coaster of BJ that we've mentioned time and time again and you have to have the stomach to ride it, otherwise it's gonna make you vomit.

You can always tell ZenKing, but you can;t tell him much.

*my apologies to any Elis*

Quote: Romes

Yeah, actually we've been telling you over and over and over and over again just how wild the swings in BJ are. From max up one day to mass down another to max up again another day. It's the roller-coaster of BJ that we've mentioned time and time again and you have to have the stomach to ride it, otherwise it's gonna make you vomit.

Romes, i already said its not the loss. The whole rant is regarding not beimg able to cross the all time high. How sickening and unlucky is it to touch the all time exactly near the dollar and not be able to cross it? What are the chances. This isnt about losing or winning yesterday, its the fact of how unlucky i am when it comes to these little things. I really couldnt just win one more bet as soon as i touched the all time high?

This might be trying to split hairs and findimg something to complain about, but its sickening. I can care less about the -1500 loss, i just rallied off +10k in 8 hours, losing is part of it, but its like i knew already as soon as i touched all time high, it wouldnt let me cross it just as a troll. God forbid i win one.more bet to cross it. The liftle things man, drive me insane

Yes, I never said it was the loss. You're still pointing out exactly what I said. It's the roller coaster that's going to have you ping ponging over the line repeatedly which can give you the feeling of never being able to make a certain point... HOWEVER you biggest fault there is marginalizing a specific point in your bankroll. The fact that you care to be at that point is already a poor sign. Sure it can be fun to celebrate small victories (50k threshold, 75k threshold, 100k threshold, etc, etc) but you must realize and have the understanding that these "thresholds" mean literally nothing. You're playing a mathematically proven game. You will cross every threshold in front of you, IN TIME, with ENOUGH HANDS, and a large enough sampling size to realize enough of your edge. You are NOT UNLUCKY because you can't 'keep it up' at a certain point (pun intended). You are literally TELLING yourself you're unlucky while going through the exceedingly natural and commonalities of the game. This is why others roll their eyes... because you're making a big deal out of basically absolutely nothing.

Why stop at "I really couldn't just win one more bet..?" Why couldn't you win 5 more bets? Why couldn't you win 100 more bets? Why couldn't you win the casino? This train of thought is just a completely erroneous waste of time.

Every single one of us, that have card counted at one time or another, have had the exact same thing happen. And if they say they haven't, they're a $%#@&*^ lying piece of $%#@.

Which leads to the question: why does anyone really care about ZK's little drama / hissy fits?

Variance happens.

I guess we can't resist rubbernecking a fiery roadside distraction.

I was going to say what Romes just said.

Earnings = Hours played * win rate
It's super simple math. The left side is influenced by the right side. Increase one or both of the numbers on the right side and the left side increases - it's built into mathematical equations.

That formula doesn't give a shit about -$10,000 or +$20,000 or +$45,000. Your all time high will continue to go up as long as you put in hours in good games and have ROR protection. In six months you're not going to care about today's "all time high" that you seem to be trying to break through. That silly number shouldn't be stress point in your life.

Quote: ZenKinG

Romes, i already said its not the loss. The whole rant is regarding not beimg able to cross the all time high. How sickening and unlucky is it to touch the all time exactly near the dollar and not be able to cross it? What are the chances. This isnt about losing or winning yesterday, its the fact of how unlucky i am when it comes to these little things. I really couldnt just win one more bet as soon as i touched the all time high?

This might be trying to split hairs and findimg something to complain about, but its sickening. I can care less about the -1500 loss, i just rallied off +10k in 8 hours, losing is part of it, but its like i knew already as soon as i touched all time high, it wouldnt let me cross it just as a troll. God forbid i win re bet to cross it. The liftle things man, drive me insane

Sounds common to me, I've been counting less than a year and there were like 3 times where I start a session with a figure I wanna make, (usually VERY ambitious). Get within one bet of that figure and prepare to color my chips, then somehow leave with nothing... after that I found it better to not even think about ups and downs, I kinda got numb and I became emotionally detached and play like a robot. Every hour I put in is +30$ positive expectation, that's all that matters. I don't really get happy about one hand or sad about another, just hanging out chatting with people at the table and playing in "autopilot" mode. It is still quite enjoyable.
often trying to chat up the cutest lady at the table... but I haven't hit that jackpot yet

Quote: tyler498

often trying to chat up the cutest lady at the table... but I haven't hit that jackpot yet

Let me tell you from experience that it's negative EV, especially in the long run.

I'm no longer going to badmouth ZK. He is just blowing steam. I've got my own family and mental health issues to deal with. He'll figure it out on his own, and if he doesn't he has his family to lean back on. Seems like he is playing his game, and when he gets streams of bad luck he complains that it is an unreasonable force at play, be it god, preshuffled Chinese cards, or witchcraft. In the end if he plays well and manages not to get backed off everywhere he'll be fine.

Wishing you zero variance, ZK! (not bad luck or good luck, just what you expect out of your play over the long run, which is a living).

-2487.50.

Hahabba. How did i know this would happen. How mamy times do i have to go down more than -10k just to come back to even and go back down again to -10k. Did it twice already, is this a 3rd time? Anybody else wouldve jumped off a bridge by now. This is why im the best. No matter the adversity, i cant be broken

Some people might consider crying like a little girl every time you stub your toe to be broken. Your unimaginable courage in carrying on through all the trials and tribulations in your life should be the inspiration for generations to come. Songs will be sung.

Yeah but the songs will be pre-shuffled

Well, you've provided a service, ZK; I'm beginning to understand EvenBob a little better.

scha·den·freu·de

ˈSHädənˌfroidə/

noun

pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune

Can't say I'm taking any pleasure in your posts or situation, but I can see the path to that thinking.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Yeah but the songs will be pre-shuffled

You win the internet today John! I laughed really hard at this one!

Quote: ZenKinG

-2487.50.

Hahabba. How did i know this would happen. How mamy times do i have to go down more than -10k just to come back to even and go back down again to -10k. Did it twice already, is this a 3rd time? Anybody else wouldve jumped off a bridge by now. This is why im the best. No matter the adversity, i cant be broken

Yep, you're the best. Don't ever change.

Quote: MrV

Which leads to the question: why does anyone really care about ZK's little drama / hissy fits?

Variance happens.

I guess we can't resist rubbernecking a fiery roadside distraction.

I just got back from a week's vacation at the beach and instead of reading the paperback I had packed, I ended up binge-reading this thread. This leads me to think that there may be an AP play here (i.e., a way of turning a profit from the otherwise neg EV activity of trying to provide advice and solace to ZK). The folks at both Netflix and Amazon are throwing big $$ at anyone who comes up with a good concept for a new series or movie. I'm thinking this thread has the core of a good show.

The Pitch: young guy living in folks basement makes a few bucks gambling on-line and decides to head to Vegas. Along the way he makes contact with a bunch of quirky but lovable (?) pros who offer to show him the ropes.

Obviously some aspects of the story will need some tweaks. For one, the Zen King character will need to be made much more sympathetic and likable. Otherwise it's a sure hit. Plus it fills a gap in the type of Vegas-themed TV shows made so far. None are from the p.o.v of the gamblers. It always the cops or the casino owners.

I'm thinking its an easy sell and you guys should start thinking about who should play each of you in the show. I haven't met anyone in person which makes it hard to cast but I'm thinking that maybe William Dafoe, Danny DeVito, or Christopher Walken might not be too far off the mark for some of the parts.

I'd start the series with a forty year old guy working a menial job at CinnaBon and then go into flashback mode. Each episode could have two or three time frames in it.
We'd meet the twenty five year old, the 28year old, the thirty three year old, ect, ect. Maybe a crossover with Preacher as he tries to remove the curse.

Quote: TumblingBones

I'm thinking its an easy sell and you guys should start thinking about who should play each of you in the show. I haven't met anyone in person which makes it hard to cast but I'm thinking that maybe William Dafoe, Danny DeVito, or Christopher Walken might not be too far off the mark for some of the parts.

Can my part be played by Michelle Pfeiffer? We'd need to emphasise in the script that a key part of my character involves being nearly naked. We can gloss over the gender difference. Age is similar and she has better make-up team than I do.

I think the movie goes straight to streaming. Rotten Tomatoes will give it a 20%. Or less.

Giovanni Ribisi plays Mark Frissora, CEO of Caesars Entertainment.
Ken Jeong plays "Guy Lo", the comedic president of the Chinese card making factory.
Steve Buscemi plays "Tony Burducci" the Director of Table Games at Bellagio
ZenKing played of course by Jonah Hill. We'll name is character "Leo" with a nickname of "Lucky"
We'll throw in Hayden Panettiere as Leo's love interest.

Movie starts with a scene in the CEO's office. There is a board meeting where Giovanni is asking his VP of operations why his casino numbers are down. The room points at the numbers, "well, we're getting killed in Blackjack and counters. They are just too good to detect and they are taking away our profits. We've introduced 6:5 blackjack through the strip and that's helped a little bit."

"Can't you detect the counters?"
"No, sir, we can't. They are too hard to detect."
"Dammit with all of this technology and security are you telling me that they are too smart for us?!!"
"Yes sir."
"Well what are we going to do about it?"
"Well sir we could go to even-money blackjack?"
"Even money! That's not even blackjack!!!"
"I know, but no one seems to care about 6:5 except for the counters, who are just killing us. Killing us?"
"Well what are we going to do?"
"Well I have an idea..."

Then there's a scene with counting teams in Blackjack in expensive homes smoking weed and living the highlife with young women in an expensive home. There's a cameo by Phil Ivey and members of the old MIT blackjack team. They're doing accounting and figuring out that they won 7 million off of Caesars this year playing Blackjack. They talk about their methods and how they count which of course gives the audience what how they play. Cut to scenes of them on the casino floor, in disguise, in teams, counting cards, etc, similar to what you would have seen in 21.

Cut to a phone call between the CEO of Caesars and Guy Lo, a card maker in Nanjing, China. He goes out to the floor, writes up an order, and is seen in the next few minutes barking out orders to the manufacturing floor. A young teenager rolls his eyes mysteriously as he opens a deck of cards and looks for something and shuffles the deck before putting it back in to the box (of course I know that's not how it's done. It's a dramatization).

Cut back to the CEO calling the American manufacturer of his cards and says "sorry, we don't require your services any more". Cut to a Tweet of Donald Trump stating "Caesars offshores its playing cards to China. Frissora is no patriot. He will be deported! Sad."

Cut back to the casinos a few weeks later. It shows the dealers at Bellagio, Caesars, Harrahs and the Linq being instructed on new card procedures... "You are not to look at the cards. Just face down, straight into the shufflers".

Meanwhile the counting team arrives at Caesars and are taken aback by their ability not to win anymore. Getting more desparate, they get detected as counters and get trespassed throughout Vegas.

"I can't figure out what happened! We played correctly. How could we have run into this bad luck?"
"Oh well, we'll never know. I guess we better pack up and go back to our day jobs as IT engineers at Lochheed..."

Cut to a quiet day on the east side of the United States. You see Leo in a PA casino, by himself, counting away, enjoy some success as his pile of chips grows from 1,000 to 5,000. He ends his day, gets in his 2009 grey Toyota Corolla, and heads to the local Applebys for a steak dinner with a friend. He talks about his plans during dinner and how superior he is at counting cards, and details him about his boring life in PA. The friend takes out his wallet, but Leo's got it. "Wait," his friend says, "You didn't leave a tip". "Oh", said Leo, "I don't believe in tipping. It's a sham. Employers should pay them more."

---------

That's all I have so far.

I envision a scene where ZK takes out all of the money and puts it in his shoes and drives across America in with the cash in his shoes. He gets pulled over in Texas of course for a "broken taillight" and the police ask to search his car. He refuses and he gets taken to a holding cell where they take his car apart. But they never search his shoes, and he leaves a day later, paranoia intact, with the sweaty money in his shoes.

There has to be a scene where ZK finds a place, buys groceries, and cooks for himself.

It's a start.