AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 19th, 2017 at 6:22:09 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Well, Quantum Theory includes corollaries that you can affect past events (delayed-choice) and cause actions at a great distance (quantum entanglement). Problem is, only been shown with particles. Canít seem to get a Roulette ball to behave.:)

Well that's your problem, you're trying to convince the ball to behave when you should be sending positive energy vibes to the wheel.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
Romes
April 19th, 2017 at 6:25:13 AM permalink
Just avoid the new EITS positive vibe detectors. (patent pending)
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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April 19th, 2017 at 6:31:03 AM permalink
My understanding of the long run as it applies to gambling is that the only acceptable definition is infinity.

If a person says that in a negative expectancy game such as baccarat you are certain to lose in the long run.

Then for example you might calculate that after 10,000 hours of flat betting in baccarat there is a one in one hundred trillion chance of being ahead. (this is just a raw example, not a mathematically accurate one.) So if that is true then you cannot say that a person got into the long run after 10,000 hours of play. Because there is still some chance, however slight that he could be ahead. And the long run is a phrase that reflects certainty as far as gambling is concerned.

So, to me, the long run has always meant infinity.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
QFIT
QFIT
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April 19th, 2017 at 6:38:53 AM permalink
Good luck getting there.:) ďLong runĒ is really a macroeconomic term. It has no definitive mathematic definition, and outside of economics is a relative term. In the AP world, it is generally considered the point where you have a pretty good chance of being reasonably near your EV. The most popular point among APs is 1SD. But, thatís just because itís how Brett Harris defined N0.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
LostWages
April 19th, 2017 at 6:50:11 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Good luck getting there.:) ďLong runĒ is really a macroeconomic term. It has no definitive mathematic definition, and outside of economics is a relative term. In the AP world, it is generally considered the point where you have a pretty good chance of being reasonably near your EV. The most popular point among APs is 1SD. But, thatís just because itís how Brett Harris defined N0.

Boom! Thread goes full circle and the OP's question is answered =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
QFIT
QFIT
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April 19th, 2017 at 6:52:24 AM permalink
Well, I can walk a block to the grocery store. Or, proceed in the opposite direction and experience the world on the way. And life is about experience.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
Romes
Romes
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April 19th, 2017 at 6:54:18 AM permalink
Quote: QFIT

Well, I can walk a block to the grocery store. Or, proceed in the opposite direction and experience the world on the way. And life is about experience.

Couldn't agree more. Experience from which we lean knowledge. Knowledge that builds and builds and with reflection on our knowledge, from our experiences, it becomes the foundation of wisdom.

Experience->Knowledge->Wisdom has been my mantra for some time. People need to get out an experience the world!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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April 19th, 2017 at 7:05:37 AM permalink
Yeah, but you can skip the kimchi, criadillas and pidan. You can obtain wisdom without turning your stomach. (Don't mean to insult Koreans, Chileans, or Chinese.) But, I'm not a gastronome.
Last edited by: QFIT on Apr 19, 2017
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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April 19th, 2017 at 7:30:17 AM permalink
Incidentally, by a strange coincidence (or not), Brett Harris, formulator of N0, earned his PhD in Quantum Gravity.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
RS
RS
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April 19th, 2017 at 8:05:18 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

C) When a situation or game appears where you WILL NOT be able to reach the "long run" before the game disappears (e.g. a one-time one-day promotion at a new casino, or a slot machine appears which disappears three months later.

Sometimes, the edge is so high (e.g. BJ 2x-3x blackjacks) that professionals come out of the woodwork to hammer the one-day promotion.

But other times it is only a small edge.
"+EV" long-term analysis, may not be as useful as short-term playing tactics, which may include money management - actively looking at real-time win/loss to decide on strategy. I have not found much useful information on-line or in any books discussing "+EV" situations where you may only have 1-10% of the "long-run" time.


This subject alone could be analyzed to death forever, and for good reason. There's a lot relating to this subject. I'm in a bit of a time crunch, so here are a few of my quick thoughts on it:

N0 and variance go hand in hand. Variance is additive (not co-variance*). If you graphed your EV and +/- 1, 2, and 3 SD's for all of your play, you'll be able to see if you've covered the long run or 1 N0 (or 4xN0 or 9xN0 etc) by looking at where the negative SD curves cross the X (flat) axis.

You also have the tax issue, assuming you pay taxes. You don't want to play a game for such few rounds so that at the end of the year you'd be a net -EV loser given the reverse loss rebate that is taxes. You want a sufficient amount of rounds played (N0) such that you are very likely enough to be ahead such that your taxes doesn't make it -EV. Of course some games have a small down side and a huge upside, where you don't need a high win rate to be +EV, even including taxes.


Some people are in the small bankroll and building process. For them, IMO, it's essential to have a high probability of winning on a given play or at least a sum of their play in general, for a short period of time.


Some people wouldn't play something where they can only get to 10% of N0, and rightfully so. But if you can find 10 games with similar variance where you can get to 10% of N0 on each, that's like getting to 1 N0 on one game (okay, a tad different, but you get the point).


Ultimately what it comes down to is personal preference. And that's gonna be different for everyone. Anyone can figure out the EV of a play. But I think it's important we understand the math or at least have the ability to figure out if something is worthwhile for us or something we want to pass on, not looking at it simply from a ROR, SCORE, EV, etc. perspective, but more in depth. Knowledge is power, or something like that.
"should of played 'Go Fish' today ya peasant" -typoontrav

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