Confessions of a first-time card-counter

Confessions of a first-time card-counter, with thanks to Romes & Once Dear for their encouragement:

Quote: Romes

"Playing correctly means you've already won!"

Did you

Quote: OnceDear

Embrace the Variance?

Part 1 of 2 parts

Edit: I did not yet have courage to take pictures at the table, so I hope the layout I recreated at home was faithful to my story.

Apologies to the experienced BJ players - my confession is probably just a "walk in the park" for most of them. For me, it's a first-time treasured experience that I prepared for 6 months ago (my 1st BJ experience at a table!). I wanted to describe a detailed scenario, my thoughts and emotions, and other conditions to create the experiences I had. I wanted to write a short story I could refer back to months later, because my 3rd trip probably won't be till end of 2017 or early 2018! I want to elicit constructive comments now from the more experienced folk. This lengthy description is my way of letting the more experienced folk know that I think I did some good homework and planning. It would not do to leave any stone uncovered before I took this 6-hour flight from Honolulu to Las Vegas! Lastly, I also want to reach out to newbies with less experience and finesse (like me!) - I hope it will help you take YOUR first steps on your BJ journey!

My personality leans towards introvert, so I am not real comfortable in a socially interactive environment -- this explains why I've only played VP in previous visits. I'm short on words and long on concentrated thought - maybe too serious, like the academic in my soul. I hope to invert these ratios after more BJ play time, as many WoV posters say a little social interaction (even just passing "How's the weather?" conversation) goes a long way towards enjoying blackjack.

Gambling is not legal in Hawaii, so I paid a lot of attention to my preparation to visit our "9th island" (Las Vegas): reading and posting on the WoV forum, gathering tips and suggestions, card-counting down a single deck of cards (best time of 40 secs is "slow", but I've been able to count down perfectly 3 times in a row), and playing BJ & card-counting apps on my iPhone and iPad for 6 months straight!

In time, maybe after I've played a couple of hundred BJ sessions, I may then imagine: "Hah! This 2nd trip to the BJ tables and first-time card-counting? That was just a walk in the park!"

On this 2nd trip, I avoided the stronger smoke-filled rooms of the Cal, and tried the high-ceilinged (2 stories high?) BJ tables at MSS, featuring a row of 4 (6?) HDTVs with the latest sports channels on low volume.



The 6-seat BJ tables are comfortable, face the HDTVs without being too much of a distraction, cocktail waitresses make their rounds every 3-5 min, there's good cross-ventilation, restrooms are not too far away, and the pitch BJ table was equipped with an automatic shuffler. My comfort seats are middle seats #3 or #4, directly facing the dealer; I don't like sitting in 1st or 3rd base, but I've sat in position #2 or #5 a few times.

I found out something new (to me) - while you can't re-split Aces, you can re-split all other pairs you want up to 4 times. I had very, very bad vibes with my seat mates, rowdy and physically bumping me every deal. I was in Seat #3, and though the player to my right was on 1st base, his girth spread over Seat #2 into MY territory! He must have broken the scales at 300+ lbs! Every second word out of his mouth after a "bad" hit was: "Un-effing believable!", followed by several variations of "What an effing deal you give us". After I added in side comments from my wife and other players, my blood pressure hit the ceiling and I could feel my veins throbbing! Time to remove myself from the disaster zone. As luck would have it, he bet erratically and his $200 disappeared in less than 10 minutes and he just rudely and abruptly stood up without a word. I was able to card-count TWICE, on each of the two new shuffles, but only the first few deals, then lost count. My strategy was not to panic, so I just flat betted $5 with basic strategy. The remaining deck was full, so TC=RC after 6-8 cards. On this third shuffle, after 5 or 6 rounds to three players, the TC was up to +3 after the first deal. That's my signal! I realized that TC+3 didn't guarantee a win, but just a really darn good chance of winning. This was going to be the last deal of the shuffle. After dealing out to the 3 remaining players, here's what the table looked like:



1st base stood with the 4 (probably had count of 12-16?). 3rd base could not take action yet with the 10.

I was dealt an 8 four times in sequence! I now had $80 on the felt!!!

The TC is now at +8, greatly favoring a lot of high cards to come out to (hopefully) bust the dealer. I stood on all 4 of my hands (12, 13, 14, & 13).











All the players murmured their sympathies for me, agreeing that the dealer SHOULD have busted with high cards (but obviously didn't!). It was not meant to be a joyous moment for me this round!

But it was perfect timing to leave the table and my spouse (she was up several chips and happy to stay) after this last deal, and let my wounds heal silently at a VP machine with a double shot of Bailey's and black coffee.

Part 2 of 2 parts

After the Tue close-out loss ($80! aaaargh!) on 4 double-downs , I took a break Wed and did some shopping and dining with my spouse. The day was pleasant enough to let me resolve that loss experience and absorb it into my knowledge base. I rebuilt my enthusiasm, contained my excitement for a return "bout", and brought new courage to go head-to-head early Thu.

In his Romes's 3 articles,

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/

he suggests that a BJ player should come to the table with these questions answered -- otherwise I wouldn't be ready to gamble! I would feel slightly defeated if the experienced BJ players out there said: "Hey, LW! Nice try, but you forgot to . . . "

What is . . .

1. . . . the house edge? 0.60. Using BS & card-counting, I had a 1% edge

2. . . . your bet spread?
< TC +2 $5
TC +2 $10
TC +3 $20
TC >3 $25

3. . . . your session bankroll? $100 (plus emergency $50 only for double-down). This included a $50 loss stop, a $40 win stop or wong out after TC=-3 or the first bet of my maximum $25 spread, whichever came first.

4. . . . your hourly EV (expected value) of the game you’re going to play? With help from the WoV forum, I calculated my EV around $2.50/hr. This is quite low, and I knew my BR session was under-funded, but under all the conditions already described, I was ready to accept the results in exchange for having my first card-counting experience.

5. . . . the PEN? Don't play if < 60%, because you'll rarely get a TC to merit raising your bet. PEN at MSS was 55-65%, borderline. I took a chance!

I got down to the BJ tables at 8:35a, but all 6 seats were already taken. The PB said I was welcome to select a seat at the adjoining table which would open around 9:00a. I verified with the PB to make sure these were the table rules by showing him a 3x5 card I had prepared, and he personally reviewed each element with me.

DD 3:2 | $5 min to $1,000 | dealer hits on S17, no SURR, no DAS, no RSA

Source:
https://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blackjack-survey/

The WoV Jan 2016 survey showed a HE of 0.60 for this MSS game, but a good card counter should have at least a 1.0% edge on the house, right?

Admins - will there be a 2017 update to the WoV 18 Jan 2016 survey?

The PB added that players can split non-Ace pairs a maximum of 4 times only (new information for me!). He gave me a warm smile and wished me luck, saying I'll be ok, not to be nervous (he could tell I was either nervous or just excited to be there!), and to make sure I had a good time!

I observed the full BJ table to see the dealer's PEN was about 55-65% after every shuffle. Some WoV posters recommend avoiding 2DD games if the PEN is less than 60% (especially if you're counting at 2DD games). But at this point, I was satisfied with the conditions and mentally prepared to accept less than spectacular results with my under-funded bankroll. After all, my primary purpose this trip was to have my first card-counting experience without attracting attention.

I was even ready to deploy I18, if the opportunity showed. No, I haven't memorized all 18 deviations, but I can easily remember three right now:

1. at TC+3, take insurance against dealer's Ace

12 usually hits against dealer's 2 or 3 in BS, but for I18:
2. at TC+3, STAND on 12 vs 2
3. at TC+2, STAND on 12 vs 3

I leisurely began my mental and physical preparations: cleared my mind from Tuesday's big loss (I didn't feel revengeful, just glad to have a comeback round!), did a quick mental review of my Basic Strategy, reviewed my spread strategy, got a bottled water into my BJ table cup, Chapstick for my lips, made sure my BS card was readily available in my shirt pocket, breathed in and out as slowly as possible (I have SOB or shortness of breath, coupled with asthma), made sure my legs could stretch and wouldn't cramp . . . I was R-E-A-D-Y!

The other day I was able to card-count, but only for the first few deals! When I lost track of the count, I just played BS, flat bet, and played my best. Maybe today I would be able to card-count at least through one entire deal of pitch BJ. The dealer came in precisely at 8:55a, bright and cheery, and extremely sociable, friendly, and inviting without any overkill - all subdued natural charms. I openly announced that I was a newbie, and if the dealer would please be patient if I took a tad longer than usual to count my hand and decide my strategy. She said no problem, and besides, I had the entire table just for me! Then she added: "Don't worry, I'll help you count your hand if you get lost. If you brought your BS card, you can put it out near you so you have a reference. I'm here to help you!" With an introduction like that, who wouldn't feel more relaxed? I was! The PEN was about 55%!

On the 1st shuffle, I was able to keep count of the TC for a complete deal, using the cancellation principle. I did not count until each spot had two cards; then I scanned the entire table cancelling, adding and subtracting as hands were played. The first two shuffles were head-to-head.

On the 2nd shuffle, I did not have to buy-in, as I was up $25. I continued tracking the TC, which never went below +1 or higher than +2. While I didn't have to "ride the wave" of negative counts, I didn't get any "big" opportunities to increase my bets! Regardless, what a relief and contrast to the distractions just the other day: much less noise, much smaller crowds, no 300 lb gorilla bumping my legs or shoulders with his every breath, none of his foul-mouthed cussing, no spouse or other seat mates providing unwanted side comments. I was relaxed and in BJ nirvana. Ah! But I recognized and accepted that I must fully enjoy this brief moment now, as it is not the usual condition (unless you always play at 6:00a!). The dealer complimented my newbie manners and table etiquette, and was pleased she didn't have to call my attention to any mistakes . . . yet . . .

I continued holding my concentration and counted like a hawk. Although 55% PEN wasn't the greatest, it also meant that after about 6-8 cards, my RC was actually my TC! That is, no fractions or decimal places to estimate to TC from RC divided by the estimated remaining deck. During this 2nd shuffle, however, on my first double-down of the morning, I committed a no-no and got a light (pleasant) reprimand from the dealer. I peaked at the card under my chips!

Dealer: "Oh no, hon! Can't do that! No peeking! If you want, I can show you the card so only you see it, not me. But you just can't bend the card to peak at the value, ok? You gotta wait!"

LW: Totally innocent impish grin. "OMG! I didn't know that!" <I must have had brain-freeze, but at that moment in time, I honestly forgot!>

Aaaaargh! I was embarrassed, but she couldn't see my face turn red, as I was still sunburned from my daily swims in Hawaii, just before the trip! It may have been the excitement of the moment, even if the double down was only a total of 2 red chips (Wow! $10!) Lady Luck was on my side, and I won my double down.

On the 3rd shuffle some excitement blessed the table as 2 elegant (mature?) ladies joined me on 1st base and 3rd base. They were both greeted by first name with small banter like "How was your breakfast? . . . How come you came so late? . . . " The dealer intervened on my behalf and gently told the ladies: "We have a newbie here, girls, so please help him out if you see him struggling. Looks like he's got a good hold of Basic Strategy, and he's up a handful of chips. He's well-mannered, has good etiquette, and needs to relax! Help him out, ok?" And they sure did! Peeking over my hand when I looked perplexed.

And then it happened.

After five (six?) rounds of play, I'm down about $20, but the count is now TC+3. We're on the last deal for the shuffle. I could hear the alarm bells going off in my head, held my excitement, and pulled my chips from the betting square (so I could take my time to relax before continuing). My bet spread said to ramp up to $20 at TC+3. 1st base had 1 red chip, as did 3rd base. I took my time, and even waited for the dealer to ask me for my bet. As nonchalantly as I could manage, I placed 4 red chips in my betting box.

Dealer: "Oh ladies, we have a gambling man, here!" Good luck, sir!

Ladies: "You can do it, man, go for it!" "Now we'll see some action!" (phrases to that effect)

LW: "Just trying to go with the flow, ladies! Thanks for your support!"

1st base got a 2, I was dealt A-A, and doubled down. 3rd base got a K, and dealer had a 6. 1st base asked for a card and got a 6 and stood (probably had an A for a 19). TC was still +3.
My double-down was as ordinary as I could muster and slowly but deliberately pushed 4 more chips towards my other A; dealer arranged the cards and the bet.
Was I going to win (43% of the time)? Maybe lose again like Tue (48% of the time)? Or was this a push (9% of the time)?





Here's to trip #3, learning the rest of I18, and memorizing the FabFour!!!! Thank you to all the WoV posters who've showered me with their tips, tricks, and encouragement!

Sounds like you had a good time. Congrats. You might want to edit your post to state that you split the aces.

Quote: MaxPen

Sounds like you had a good time. Congrats. You might want to edit your post to state that you split the aces.

Thanks, Max. Yes, it was the highlight of my BJ journey (just my 2nd trip!). Since I don't really know all the BJ terminology and writing styles, may I check in with you?

I thought that "I was dealt A-A and doubled-down . . . " meant that I split my A-A. Or is stating "I split my A-A" preferred when writing about the specific action I took? Thanks for your help, LW.

Good story and good practice. Be as introverted as possible at the table. You're not obligated to chat with the dealer or acknowledge the other players -- and the dealer may even find it refreshing as now she can focus more on her job and not bother with the small talk. $2.50 per hour does not sound like much at all, but it is definitely better than negative $4.00 per hour.

Quote: TomG

Good story and good practice. Be as introverted as possible at the table. You're not obligated to chat with the dealer or acknowledge the other players -- and the dealer may even find it refreshing as now she can focus more on her job and not bother with the small talk. $2.50 per hour does not sound like much at all, but it is definitely better than negative $4.00 per hour.

Thanks for your comments and suggestions, Tom. I only mentioned I should try to be more extrovert based on what I read on the WoV forum - I guess being an extrovert adds a touch of "disguise" for when you really want your card-counting to be NOT noticed!

Quote: LostWages

Thanks for your comments and suggestions, Tom. I only mentioned I should try to be more extrovert based on what I read on the WoV forum - I guess being an extrovert adds a touch of "disguise" for when you really want your card-counting to be NOT noticed!

Great that you had a fun session and even made a few dollars. You certainly got entertainment value out of your adventure, which is 100% what it's all about.
There's a certain sense of mischief isn't there, knowing that you are probably smarter than the dealer thinks and even possibly the most savvy player at the table. Having the dealer tell you not to be shy at having your bs card out is funny. You probably came over as a keen newbie, just the kind of player they cherish.
Even if you can only keep and use the count for a few hands, you just get a bit of extra excitement from the mischief that only you are aware of. Having an 'experienced' lady either side of you is a bonus too. I'd have felt hot under the collar, especially with a female dealer, so well done for keeping your cool.
Making that error would have just confirmed that you are a newbie and no threat to the house, so don't give it another thought. I was amused by how you sounded so excited about ramping up that bet in the good count. Truth is, at that table with those stakes you could have been card counting out loud and wearing your 'I'm a card counter' t-shirt and they would not have given you heat.
It also sounds like you got the social level about right. Getting etiquette right is the essential and will buy you some leeway. We none of us want to be the 300 lb loudmouth, and neither do we want to be at his table. There's one guy at my local place who is an obnoxious sh1t. He swears at the dealers, plays like a twunt and worst of all, he is unclear with his instructions. The casino tolerates him because he's a big loser, but I can't bear to play at a table while he is there. Heads up with a pretty and hopefully inexperienced dealer every time :o)
Yes. With a split, we say 'split', we never refer to splitting as doubling down. Always take care if you have a pair of fives and push your additional stake forward. Some dealers will playfully ask you if you are splitting them, which you must make clear is not what you are doing.
Just one tiny observation: You gave the impression that you thought that you were at a significant advantage on the one occasion where the count was high. You weren't really. No single hand in a high count is at much of an advantage in the grand scheme of things.

Quote: LostWages

Situations like that are staggeringly frequent (maybe something like that in every 5 sessions or so) : Regardless of count, you can often find yourself out at 4 hands, maybe with two or more times your base bet out on each of them after resplitting a few times and DASing. They are shit or bust hands which can wipe out several good sessions of profit or can turn a bad week into a great week. This is why we must hold a few dollars in reserve and why we should not feel too good or too bad at how much we have won or lost this session, this week, or this month. These hands are pure adrenalin and you are totally at the mercy of lady variance, so roll with them and enjoy them win or lose. Surely some you will win and some you will lose.
In one early bricks and mortar session, where I'd just about established myself as the polite newbie low roller, I found myself at the end of my stack of chips and went all in with £20, which split and doubled so much I had to reach to my wallet twice, putting about £100 out there. I lost the lot and let out an expletive 'F*** me rigid' or similar. The dealer and fellow players and I just fell about laughing at my outburst which was so out of character and just so terribly fitting. I apologised of course. Broke the ice: Pity I was out of money by then. The comedy value and the excitement made it all worth while.

Played blackjack for a bit the other night to break the monotony. In those few hours, about 10 different players joined. Not one of them had a clue as to basic strategy. Remember what I said, you just knowing BS you're doing better than 95% of others.

Quote: OnceDear

Just one tiny observation: You gave the impression that you thought that you were at a significant advantage on the one occasion where the count was high. You weren't really. No single hand in a high count is at much of an advantage in the grand scheme of things.

OD - it is great to hear from you again! I can't believe it's 8 months since I first "met" you on the forum. Appreciate all your impressions, too! Yeah, the 2 elegant ladies really poured it on to me, sincerely asking almost every other hand or so if I needed help. I admired how relaxed they seemed to be, like at girls' night out - compared to me, sitting up straight (more for my breathing issue than for posture) wearing a nicely ironed long-sleeved shirt, cleanly shaven, hmmmm. . . Looking back, I guess a little high school mischief did show.

You are really quite adept at capturing all the nuances of social interaction between the lines - how I admire that ability to bring out a bigger picture than what was presented.

I like that phrase "keen newbie". I think it will be an appropriate persona to become, until the casinos start recognizing me (OMG! I'm on OSN!), or when my card-counting shirt shows its colors. . . but that's going to take a while.

So I thought I had a significant advantage on both Tue and Thu with almost identical conditions: 3rd shuffle, after 5 or 6 rounds to 3 players, and likely to be the last deal of the shuffle.

Why wouldn't TC+3 be considered a significant advantage? Because of my low bet spread and ramping? My bet was $20 at TC+3, and a maximum of $25 for TC+4 or higher . . . Maybe I should tone down TC+3 just as a positive event vice a "really significant advantage"? Is that what you meant?

Perhaps there are some other elements I have not yet taken into consideration. Would greatly appreciate additional clarification!

Tue:
On this third shuffle, after 5 or 6 rounds to three players, the TC was up to +3 after the first deal. That's my signal! I realized that TC+3 didn't guarantee a win, but just a really darn good chance of winning.

Thu:
After five (six?) rounds of play, I'm down about $20, but the count is now TC+3. We're on the last deal for the shuffle. I could hear the alarm bells going off in my head, held my excitement, and pulled my chips from the betting square (so I could take my time to relax before continuing). My bet spread said to ramp up to $20 at TC+3.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Played blackjack for a bit the other night to break the monotony. In those few hours, about 10 different players joined. Not one of them had a clue as to basic strategy. Remember what I said, you just knowing BS you're doing better than 95% of others.

IBYA - thanks for your encouragement in my OP, and on several other occasions! I will often read a thread that I don't find appealing if I see your name on it, because you always seems to have something positive to say about the on-going issues, serious or not.

Quote: OnceDear

This is why we must hold a few dollars in reserve and why we should not feel too good.

Yes, OD, that is one of the recommendations you gave me before my last trip in Oct 2016. In fact, I now make the emergency $50 as part of my "order of executions", and don't go to the table without it.

Thanks for helping me remember to embrace the variance, because everytime I get that "darn good chance of winning", it ALSO means that Lady Variance can take me for a trip south. :-)

Quote: LostWages

Why wouldn't TC+3 be considered a significant advantage? Because of my low bet spread and ramping? My bet was $20 at TC+3, and a maximum of $25 for TC+4 or higher . . . Maybe I should tone down TC+3 just as a positive event vice a "really significant advantage"? Is that what you meant?

This is where some who are just introduced to card counting go wildly wrong: Even in the most outrageous of high counts ( rare) your advantage is just a couple or so percent. That advantage could occur over hundreds of hands and still be totally unnoticeable because of normal swings of variance. Just like I could play BJ for three years over literally millions of £s wagered at a .5% disadvantage, I still find myself up by several thousand. Equally, you could find and play a game with a 1% player advantage and lose week in week out.

Very rough and ready maths:-
with TC=0 edge is 0.6% to the house. Each +1 of TC swings the edge about 0.5 towards you (I think a bit less)
So TC+3 might mean you have an edge of 0.9% just for that hand. That's really, REALLY tiny relative to the potential swings of variance. If you popped $1,000 on that, it would be worth either -$1,000, 0, or +$1,500 to you but on average $9. Actually it could indeed be one of those hands that was destined to split to four hands and maybe cost you $4,000. Or scaling it to the $20 level, it was going to potentially cost you $80 or win you $80 but on average, expect $20*0.9%=18c

And remember that a positive count generally means you have a better chance of tasty BlackJacks with their 3:2 payout. You chance of actually winning the hand barely changes, just the potential for profit.
Those occasional big swing hands will occur often, probably more often than TC+3 situations. They can thrill, they can boost your bankroll or they can tear your wallet apart. Personally I enjoy them regardless.

I wonder if those ladies were flirting with you?

Maybe append your post to your blog here?

Oh and Kudos for asking for the comp.

I once had a running count of +38 in an 8 deck shoe (H17, DOA, DAS, split to 4 hands, RSA to 4 hands, no surrender) with only one deck remaining. What was my advantage?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I once had a running count of +38 in an 8 deck shoe (H17, DOA, DAS, split to 4 hands, RSA to 4 hands, no surrender) with only one deck remaining. What was my advantage?

Kinnell!!!! Great penetration. Awesome count. You should have been minted. But I bet you were slaughtered.

Quote: OnceDear

Kinnell!!!! Great penetration. Awesome count. You should have been minted. But I bet you were slaughtered.

Yes, yes, yes, no. $200 bet, dealt 10, 10 vs what must've been the last 6 in the shoe. Split to four hands as 10's kept spilling out. Would've doubled had I caught an ace!! Didn't catch any though. Dealer flipped over a 9 and busted.

Pen was great at this location. They dealt 7 of 8 decks.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Yes, yes, yes, no. $200 bet, dealt 10, 10 vs what must've been the last 6 in the shoe. Split to four hands as 10's kept spilling out. Would've doubled had I caught an ace!! Didn't catch any though. Dealer flipped over a 9 and busted.

Pen was great at this location. They dealt 7 of 8 decks.

Indicating quite nicely that these are the shit or bust hands that we remember. These are the ones that stop it being a chore. I bet you would have exploded if the dealer stumbled up to 21 instead.

Quote: OnceDear

Indicating quite nicely that these are the shit or bust hands that we remember. These are the ones that stop it being a chore. I bet you would have exploded if the dealer stumbled up to 21 instead.

There's always that chance.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I once had a running count of +38 in an 8 deck shoe (H17, DOA, DAS, split to 4 hands, RSA to 4 hands, no surrender) with only one deck remaining. What was my advantage?

For my future 3rd trip to play on a BJ table, I'm considering at least one buy-in to try a shoe game vice always playing pitch BJ. I've only played pitch BJ this April and my first time last Oct 2016. How else will I know if pitch BJ is really "my" game?

For a 6D game, I've always wanted to ask these questions:

1. What is the maximum TC+ possible? Is it really TC= +120?

Hi/lo value of (2,3,4,5,6) or 5 X 4suits X 6 decks = 120

2. Does a shuffle on the 6D last about 40-50 min? (I understand it will depend on number of players, the cards being dealt, and how fast the dealer deals, etc.). On my pitch BJ games, during their 20-min shifts, the dealer will make at least 3 shuffles.

3. In a 6D game, are the TC fluctuations more gradual and bet changes less frequent than in a pitch game?

If I've never played a shoe game before, what else should I know about? (I think I remember seeing that the cards are all dealt face up, and you don't touch your cards at all, unlike pitch BJ).

6-deck/8-deck shoe games are dealt face-up rather than face down(usually but not always) and this is the first game that a Casino dealer learns as their first game to deal. My point? It's fast! If it's your first time. Stand behind the table and count to see if you get the hang of it first. Know a general bet ramp relevant to your bankroll and for the number of decks and rules of the game. Is Last Surrender offered on the shoe game and not the pitch game? More to know and employ. The advantage may take a long time or many shoes to swing over to the player's side. Some nights I may never really get to place a meaningful +EV bet.

Quote: LostWages

For my future 3rd trip to play on a BJ table, I'm considering at least one buy-in to try a shoe game vice always playing pitch BJ. I've only played pitch BJ this April and my first time last Oct 2016. How else will I know if pitch BJ is really "my" game?

For a 6D game, I've always wanted to ask these questions:

1. What is the maximum TC+ possible? Is it really TC= +120?

Hi/lo value of (2,3,4,5,6) or 5 X 4suits X 6 decks = 120

2. Does a shuffle on the 6D last about 40-50 min? (I understand it will depend on number of players, the cards being dealt, and how fast the dealer deals, etc.). On my pitch BJ games, during their 20-min shifts, the dealer will make at least 3 shuffles.

3. In a 6D game, are the TC fluctuations more gradual and bet changes less frequent than in a pitch game?

If I've never played a shoe game before, what else should I know about? (I think I remember seeing that the cards are all dealt face up, and you don't touch your cards at all, unlike pitch BJ).

1) assuming hi-lo...(someone correct me if I'm wrong) +52. That would be nothing but 10's/A's.
2) a 6 deck shoe last about 15 minutes barring slow play. Penetration may vary this time.
3) yes.

Quote: Wino

6-deck/8-deck shoe games are dealt face-up rather than face down(usually but not always) and this is the first game that a Casino dealer learns as their first game to deal. My point? It's fast! If it's your first time. Stand behind the table and count to see if you get the hang of it first. Know a general bet ramp relevant to your bankroll and for the number of decks and rules of the game. Is Last Surrender offered on the shoe game and not the pitch game? More to know and employ. The advantage may take a long time or many shoes to swing over to the player's side. Some nights I may never really get to place a meaningful +EV bet.

Thanks for helping me get introduced to 6/8-deck shoe games. The more I'm reading, the less I'm inclined to try, but my inner self says to try it AT LEAST once! I will start compiling little tips about shoe games, starting with yours. Thanks for the share,

LW

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

1) assuming hi-lo...(someone correct me if I'm wrong) +52. That would be nothing but 10's/A's.
2) a 6 deck shoe last about 15 minutes barring slow play. Penetration may vary this time.
3) yes.

1) I thought for Hi/lo you assign 1 pt each for 2, 3, 4, or 5; don't the 10's/A's get negative 1's? I'm a little confused. However, it's not a really big deal, just curious.

2) 15 min is faster than the 3 shuffles at the pitch games I played, which lasted just under 20 min. Wow! That's really fast to deal out 3 times as many cards! My mind is whirring now. As Wino suggested in his reply, I should stand and observe first to see if I get the hang of it.

3) OK, so if I played 6/8 deck games, I would expect TC fluctuations to be more gradual and bet changes less frequent than in a pitch game. Thanks for your help!

To #1. Let's say you have a 6 deck game with exactly one deck left (52 cards) and you have a RC of +52. +52/1 deck left is a TC +52. Now let's use 1 deck. One card remains and you know it's a 10. Your RC would be +1. +1/0.01923077 deck left is also +52. Make sense?

I need to point out that this is for hi-lo. Other counts with varying tag values will be different.

Quote: OnceDear

This is where some who are just introduced to card counting go wildly wrong: Even in the most outrageous of high counts (rare) your advantage is just a couple or so percent.

It's really comforting to get more insights from you, OD, and you bring to light several more points which I didn't know about.

Specifically, though, I know why your signature is "Embrace the variance". It's because you've probably been there, done that, and are STILL wearing the T-shirt! So yes, I think I get it, and my mindset is resolved to think and act accordingly to Lady Variance - respect her when she visits, and have a blast when she's absent! How's that for an approach?

I use Romes's signature a lot too: Playing it correctly means you've already won.

I never realized at TC +3 my edge was only about .9%. How small, but at least it is POSITIVE, right? After you put my scenario in another perspective, I see now how the 4 sequential splits could just as easily have decimated me (like it did on Tue).

The ladies flirting? There was a possibility. The one on my right was very pleasing to the eyes, but I dared not stare too much in case she was connected to a Yakuza - no, that wouldn't do at all. Then I might have no fingers left with which to hold my cards on my return visit.

Yeah, I love the kudos AND the comps, no matter how small.

"Maybe append your post to your blog here?" -- Do you mean I might add the link to my Oct 2016 trip to my OP about "Confessions of a first-time card-counter?" Pls confirm, as I think it's a great idea!

Hope you have a great week ahead at the Grosvenor!

LW

Quote:

For a 6D game, I've always wanted to ask these questions:

1. What is the maximum TC+ possible? Is it really TC= +120?

I'll have to work it out: I doubt it. Practically tc+5 is quite rare.

Quote:

2. Does a shuffle on the 6D last about 40-50 min?

No. It's pretty fast from a shoe, face up. 10-20 minutes or so.

Quote:

3. In a 6D game, are the TC fluctuations more gradual

Very much so. TC will take a while to go up, but then it will tend to take a while to go back down too.

Quote:

f I've never played a shoe game before, what else should I know about? (I think I remember seeing that the cards are all dealt face up, and you don't touch your cards at all, unlike pitch BJ).

I've never played a pich face down game. With 6deck, only the dealer touches the cards. I figure easier to count the face up game but you maybe have to think faster.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

To #1. Let's say you have a 6 deck game with exactly one deck left (52 cards) and you have a RC of +52. +52/1 deck left is a TC +52. Now let's use 1 deck. One card remains and you know it's a 10. Your RC would be +1. +1/0.01923077 deck left is also +52. Make sense?

I need to point out that this is for hi-lo. Other counts with varying tag values will be different.

Maybe I'm still in BJ nirvana "overload" from such a wonderful recent trip. Not yet 100% understanding maximum possible TC+, but I'll let your explanation sit in for a few days and just relax. Thanks for getting back to me!

Quote: LostWages

3. . . . your session bankroll? $100 (plus emergency $50 only for double-down). This included a $50 loss stop, a $40 win stop or wong out after TC=-3 or the first bet of my maximum $25 spread, whichever came first.

4. . . . your hourly EV (expected value)

I am concerned about this statement and that fact that there were no comments about it.

First, stop losses and stop wins are really anti-AP concepts for the most part. Now yes with implementation of a 'session bankroll', you are kind of building in a stop loss limit, where as if you lose your session bankroll you will be forced to stop. Other than that, you are better off to think of all your play as one big session, because that's what it really is.

Stop triggers should be based on conditions deteriorating and time, so as not to show to much, but not really about wins or losses. The exception would be if a winning session takes you to a point that draws additional scrutiny. That is not applicable at this level.

Secondly, I don't understand the wong out after "the first bet of my max bet spread". I hope it is just funny wording and you mean leave AT THE SHUFFLE after showing your max bet. If you are leaving mid game after showing your max bet, and leaving while the count is still significantly positive, you are flat out giving away rare strong EV opportunities. Again, hopefully just bad wording.

And finally, a session bankroll of $100, or even $150 with reserve, is far too small for a $25 max bet. That means your session BR is 4-6 max bets. This means you will run out of money, maybe not being able to optimally complete the round and frequently be forced to exit during positive EV opportunities. Again, these opportunities are rare. You play through all the neutral and negative rounds to get to these rare circumstances. The LAST thing you want to do is be forced to exit prematurely.

If you do exit these positive EV opportunities or are forced to not play optimally, maybe not make a split of double down because you don't have the funds, you are reducing your overall EV. This will reduce that estimated $2.50/hr.

So you might want to reconsider stop win/loss limits and the amount of your session bankroll to allow you to play more optimally.

Okay, okay, I've finally read through not only the OP (a couple times) but the entire thread too =P.

One thing I'll say is I absolutely admire your passion for the game and counting. The people whom are most successful in life are passionate people who find a way to profit from what they're passionate about. If you so chose to make good money in blackjack, I have no doubt that with some more time and practice you absolutely could.

You're doing so many things right, it's fantastic to see at the early stage of your career. Knowing your EV, your spread, your bankroll... Dropping to min bet, conquering basic, adding in the most important deviation from the I18, asking for the comp, and practicing a TON (putting in the effort is such a huge part to success with counting). You really have come a long way since your first message and I want to congratulate you on that because you've put in a ton of work.

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I was just going to PM you with some commentary and practice thoughts, but I thought any others also early in their BJ career would also like to read this information so I'll keep it in the thread for now. I just hope no one else thinks I'm being rude or a debbie downer to your trip. Others probably don't realize we've been discussing the game for quite some time now so I just want to make sure your training always continues =).

When you lose the count you can also just simply leave the table and await the next shuffle (bathroom break, gonna "check" on the wife excuse, etc, etc), or even just hop to another place/table. Downtown is riddled with the same H17 nDAS DD that you were playing so you could just hop place to place. Wonging out entirely can quite literally make you money.

As OnceDear also pointed out your split to 4 hands is actually not all that uncommon... PLUS you were against a dealer 4, so a bunch of cards you got after that would call for a double down (though I believe the specific game you were playing was nDAS). You can quickly go from betting $5, to having $100+ on the table! As was also mentioned though that doesn't up your win% all that much. Your EV goes up with the TC because you're more likely to leverage the 4 reasons we make money in the game (in article 1 at the bottom), but that doesn't make you a super favorite to win the hand by any means.

Next, a couple times you mentioned that after a few cards the RC = TC because there was only 1 deck left. If you're going to specialize in DD I'd suggest getting down to quarter deck estimations, but for now you should definitely still be practicing half deck estimations. When you get to 1 deck remaining the RC = TC yes, but as soon as you go beyond that at all (if you ever find a game with > 50% PEN) the TC is actually a MULTIPLE of the RC. Thus, if you have 2/4 a deck left (75% PEN) the TC = 1.5*RC. So in a RC of +2, the TC is actually +3. Definitely helps the betting to have that extra TC =D. This is a little more advanced but just wanted you to at least have it on your radar for now.

As others have pointed out SP4 (split to 4 hands) and SP3 (split to 3 hands) is a fairly common rule change that you can check out on the Wizards Blackjack House Edge Calculator. Play with the SP4 and SP3 to see the minute difference in HE it makes. It's not a deal breaker rule such as H17/S17 or nDAS/DAS. Of course, penetration is the most important rule not listed, but I'd assume you know that one already!

While I'm not the biggest fan of your stop loss and win goal (because overall the goal of a card counter is to get as many hands as possible to move towards the long run where the profits are mathematically guaranteed) it's definitely quite fine to do early stages in the career while you're still testing the waters and avoiding detection since you might not know what heat feels like just yet. You still might want to change your session BR to about $200 though. If you're playing DD and even with a small $5-$25 spread you could very quickly have $20-$25 bets out there. Lose one or two of those and that's your day right there! It sucks, but it DOES happen and it will happen to you, so especially if you're on a trip you should get to play a bit more so long as it's within your financial means and overall bankroll.

Lastly, with a $5-$25 spread you should DEFINITELY check out and play the El Cortez! A 1 block walk away from where you were playing and you could have played a game 3x better, even allowing you to up your bet at TC +1 =). Simply picking that game over the other games would have multiplied your EV/hour as at $2.50 per hour I'd consider that break even given counting/playing mistakes. Game selection is something else that can quite literally make you money and save you a ton of time too.
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Seriously, overall a great report as it sounds like you got a ton of valuable experience, learned a few new things, and most importantly had a BLAST doing it all... and that's what it's all about =).

Quote: Romes

You still might want to change your session BR to about $200 though.

I'd also add that since you already spent quite a bit in plane fares etc, you might as well come armed for one more opportunity which you have yet to experience: An exploitable dealer error: You will get one one day and the first time it will totally phase you. In my case, the fist one was where I was heads up and got dealt ace-ace but I had not put chips in the betting square ( was glugging coffee ) The UK rule is that cards get backed up and will be replayed in exact same order when someone bets. I COULD have reached into my wallet, bought in big and popped a max bet into the perfect pairs box and murdered the table with a guaranteed win. Or I could have placed max bet into box 1 ,2 and 3 and stared with two hands with at least an ace each. As it was I was stunned and simply played it my usual stake. If you are alert and see an exploitable error, it's nice to have a few hundred in your wallet just for that hand. I don't believe you have the back-up rule in the states, Mistakes do happen and they can be massively in your favour. A similar coffee glug event happened again in a later session and though not as lucrative, I did exploit it.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20800-dealer-error-an-unusual-ap-opportunity-advice-and-comments-please/

I've also played a couple of rounds now where cards came out of the csm shoe face up because the csm was misloaded. so they could be seen one card in advance: a massive ap. in both cases the pb agreed with all at table that we would play out that round as dealt.

Quote: OnceDear

I've also played a couple of rounds now where cards came out of the csm shoe face up because the csm was misloaded. so they could be seen one card in advance: a massive ap. in both cases the pb agreed with all at table that we would play out that round as dealt.

There's have been a lot of instances where I'd be at first base and the dealer would push the cards towards the back of the shoe to see how many are left before the cut card. Many of these times I'd see the first card. A or T, TABLE MAX!!! Any other card, sit out.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

There's have been a lot of instances where I'd be at first base and the dealer would push the cards towards the back of the shoe to see how many are left before the cut card. Many of these times I'd see the first card. A or T, TABLE MAX!!! Any other card, sit out.

I'm trying to visualize how the scenario would work out. The table max at my pitch BJ game at MSS is $1,000. So if I saw an A or T as first card, I would bet $1,000 (if I had it?). And if any other card, don't place a bet.

Aren't we supposed to place bet before the dealer deals?

I think I just don't have a well-rounded variety of experiences to understand; or maybe it's just staring at me in the face?

Quote: LostWages

I'm trying to visualize how the scenario would work out. The table max at my pitch BJ game at MSS is $1,000. So if I saw an A or T as first card, I would bet $1,000 (if I had it?). And if any other card, don't place a bet.

Aren't we supposed to place bet before the dealer deals?

I think I just don't have a well-rounded variety of experiences to understand; or maybe it's just staring at me in the face?

First card accidentally exposed before being dealt.

If it's and ace, hopefully the side bet being offered is "Hi Tie."

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

First card accidentally exposed before being dealt.

If it's and ace, hopefully the side bet being offered is "Hi Tie."

First time I've heard/read about this. OK, something to keep in my pocket for next trip, just in case! Thanks!

Everytime I think I picked up something useful and helpful, along comes another tip. What an endless (but enjoyable) journey this is!

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: LostWages

Situations like that are staggeringly frequent (maybe something like that in every 5 sessions or so) : Regardless of count, you can often find yourself out at 4 hands, maybe with two or more times your base bet out on each of them after resplitting a few times and DASing. They are shit or bust hands which can wipe out several good sessions of profit or can turn a bad week into a great week. This is why we must hold a few dollars in reserve and why we should not feel too good or too bad at how much we have won or lost this session, this week, or this month. These hands are pure adrenalin and you are totally at the mercy of lady variance, so roll with them and enjoy them win or lose. Surely some you will win and some you will lose.
In one early bricks and mortar session, where I'd just about established myself as the polite newbie low roller, I found myself at the end of my stack of chips and went all in with £20, which split and doubled so much I had to reach to my wallet twice, putting about £100 out there. I lost the lot and let out an expletive 'F*** me rigid' or similar. The dealer and fellow players and I just fell about laughing at my outburst which was so out of character and just so terribly fitting. I apologised of course. Broke the ice: Pity I was out of money by then. The comedy value and the excitement made it all worth while.

Just last weekend I had something very similar to OP (also betting $5). I'm dealt 8-8, dealer showing a 5. I split the 8s, get dealt a 3 for the first 8, i double and receive a 9. The dealer gives me a third 8, so I split again. For the second 8 I receive a 5, so I stand. For the third 8 dealer gives me my fourth 8, so I split one final time. Then the dealer gives me a 2 for the third 8, so I double that, and then finally a 6 on my last 8. I have $30 out and am nervous, as I've never split to four hands before. Dealer turns over an 8 (total = 13), and the way things have been going I fully expect the dealer not to bust. However, the dealer draws a 9 and busts and I win! Woo hoo! The guy to my right gives me a fist bump! I tip the dealer $2 and continue playing. I'm up about $65, then the dealers change, a card is burned and I lose 4 consecutive hands to the new dealer. Ah well, such is life.

Quote: OnceDear

I'll have to work it out: I doubt it. Practically tc+5 is quite rare.No. It's pretty fast from a shoe, face up. 10-20 minutes or so.Very much so. TC will take a while to go up, but then it will tend to take a while to go back down too.I've never played a pich face down game. With 6deck, only the dealer touches the cards. I figure easier to count the face up game but you maybe have to think faster.

Oh my, I'll have to get a new notebook pretty soon to fill it up with all these notes. OK, so it looks like I'll have to "ramp up" my card-adding abilities (I'm a tad slow) if I can't touch the cards (security blanket) and they're all face-up on the table.

I'll be patient for a TC that fluctuates more gradually than pitch BJ, and be ready to play "faster" than I do in a pitch BJ game.

All the indicators are urging me to at least try a shoe game ONCE on my next trip.

Now, if I could only satisfy my curiosity about the max TC count in a 6 deck game. If all the 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, and 6s somehow miraculously got dealt out, my bare bones math brain still says that's:

5 pts (1 for each 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) X 4 suits = TC +20 X 6 decks = 120?

Maybe I missed the boat on this one . . . I woudn't have a BR big enough to satisfy a TC + 120 anyway . . . :-)

Quote: theoriemeister

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: LostWages

Situations like that are staggeringly frequent (maybe something like that in every 5 sessions or so) : Regardless of count, you can often find yourself out at 4 hands, maybe with two or more times your base bet out on each of them after resplitting a few times and DASing. They are shit or bust hands which can wipe out several good sessions of profit or can turn a bad week into a great week. This is why we must hold a few dollars in reserve and why we should not feel too good or too bad at how much we have won or lost this session, this week, or this month. These hands are pure adrenalin and you are totally at the mercy of lady variance, so roll with them and enjoy them win or lose. Surely some you will win and some you will lose.
In one early bricks and mortar session, where I'd just about established myself as the polite newbie low roller, I found myself at the end of my stack of chips and went all in with £20, which split and doubled so much I had to reach to my wallet twice, putting about £100 out there. I lost the lot and let out an expletive 'F*** me rigid' or similar. The dealer and fellow players and I just fell about laughing at my outburst which was so out of character and just so terribly fitting. I apologised of course. Broke the ice: Pity I was out of money by then. The comedy value and the excitement made it all worth while.

Just last weekend I had something very similar to OP (also betting $5). I'm dealt 8-8, dealer showing a 5. I split the 8s, get dealt a 3 for the first 8, i double and receive a 9. The dealer gives me a third 8, so I split again. For the second 8 I receive a 5, so I stand. For the third 8 dealer gives me my fourth 8, so I split one final time. Then the dealer gives me a 2 for the third 8, so I double that, and then finally a 6 on my last 8. I have $30 out and am nervous, as I've never split to four hands before. Dealer turns over an 8 (total = 13), and the way things have been going I fully expect the dealer not to bust. However, the dealer draws a 9 and busts and I win! Woo hoo! The guy to my right gives me a fist bump! I tip the dealer $2 and continue playing. I'm up about $65, then the dealers change, a card is burned and I lose 4 consecutive hands to the new dealer. Ah well, such is life.

That is a really great story for me to remember. It helps put emphasis on what OnceDear is always saying: "Embrace the Variance". Thanks for your post!

Quote: OnceDear

If you are alert and see an exploitable error, it's nice to have a few hundred in your wallet just for that hand.

Well now, that's a great tip, and I did read the link story too! Right now, I would still consider myself in "sponge" stage - still absorbing all the good pieces and parts of the forum discussions, assigning each tip to a situation that I can call on when the opportunity shows up on the felt. My "notebook" is getting fatter every day, and I've only been back from Las Vegas 7 days!

Since we're on the topic (OnceDear plays in the UK), does anyone know how the situation he describes would be addressed in a Las Vegas casino?

Just getting ready!

Thanks, OD!

Quote: LVkid

So you might want to reconsider stop win/loss limits and the amount of your session bankroll to allow you to play more optimally.

Thanks for all the observations you made on my OP. You've helped me tremendously by pointing out issues I need to re-evaluate and then change or keep, and make room for new strategies or ammunition for me to bring to the table.

I am big on enthusiastically learning from constructive comments, but alas, I'm just short on experience (no gambling in Hawaii), the proper terminology (don't know all the catch-phrases), and the variety of situations (just not enough experience, that's all). But I'm glad I outlined all MY planning thoughts and strategies on this last visit so that the more experienced can help me -- as you are doing -- refine my approach on my next visit. So, thanks in advance!

1. Stop win/stop loss: Yes, I can well imagine these are anti-AP concepts, but since this was only my 2nd time to actually play BJ AND card-count, I had to draw the limits somewhere. Not knowing any better, I followed what I read elsewhere on the forum: "There is no set number here, but a nice general rule is to quit after building your bankroll up by 30%-40%, and stop when you’ve lost 50% of your bankroll . . . Consider playing SHORT sessions: less than 45 min of play or when you have reached your targeted WIN or designated loss, whichever comes first.

2. Wonging out after first bet of my max spread ($25). Again, I may have misinterpreted what I've read on the forum - at the time I took my notes, the wong out moment was intended to avoid attention from dealer, PB, or eye-in-the-sky. I don't have any experienced reason for following this action. No, it never occurred to me to leave MID-GAME. With a TC of +3 or better, I would stay as long as my BR and emergency fund was available. I think my wording is indeed poorly constructed. ". . . leave AT THE SHUFFLE after showing your max bet" (your words) does sound more professional and correct. Thanks again!

3. BR session of $100 + $50 emergency for double-down only. At the introduction of my "confessions", I already understood I was underfunded. I was willing to do this anyway, in exchange for my first opportunity to card-count an entire shuffle, not just the first few hands. In fact, I have notes that state: "Experts suggest having enough money to cover 30 to 50 average bets for a 2-3 hour session. That means a bankroll of $300 to $500 for a $10 average bet or $150 to $250 for a $5 average bet. I would certainly dislike being forced to exit prematurely under any conditions! But, now that I've had my very first (albeit very short) card-counting experience, I've made my goal. On my next trip, I'll evaluate a better funded BR, but I'll need time (and some help) working out a strategy to deploy these funds.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

There's have been a lot of instances where I'd be at first base and the dealer would push the cards towards the back of the shoe to see how many are left before the cut card. Many of these times I'd see the first card. A or T, TABLE MAX!!! Any other card, sit out.

Dealers who fiddle with the cards are worth watching carefully, especially their hands. I've got to know the 'traits and foibles' of a few dealers. A few prematurely take the next card from the shoe and wave it about a bit when I'm playing a bit slow. Some, I toy with and mess with their minds by playfully saying something like 'Hmmm. I'd like to double', when I have tree cards already. By getting the dealer to NEARLY misdeal can unnerve them and either slow them down or put them off their stride enough that they make another mistake. It's a bit naughty, but if they make mistakes and you only alert them when the error favours the casino, you can wrangle a tiny edge. Besides, I think we should penalise a cocky dealer who pre-empts our selection.
I've never bet table max in a bricks and mortar and would be unlikely to ever do so. Mathematically it would be the right thing to do, especially if you pre- see an Ace coming, but it would mean placing a bankroll changing amount at great jeopardy. While low rolling in 5 to 20 bets, the most I'd put at risk on that detected Ace would be half of what was in my wallet (about half of £300). LW staking the value of his holiday budget on one hand would be a sight to behold, especially when he gets excited at ramping to $20.
IBYA. Can I guess that you don't have a wife worrying about your table max wagering? Mine would go nuts if she saw me place a £1000 wager and no amount of explaining about +ev would smooth that over.

$;o)

Quote: LostWages

...Now, if I could only satisfy my curiosity about the max TC count in a 6 deck game. If all the 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, and 6s somehow miraculously got dealt out, my bare bones math brain still says that's:

5 pts (1 for each 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) X 4 suits = TC +20 X 6 decks = 120?

Maybe I missed the boat on this one . . . I woudn't have a BR big enough to satisfy a TC + 120 anyway . . . :-)

FYI

Max RC in 6 deck (using Hi/Low): 2, 3, 4, 5, 6... 5*4*6 = +120, HOWEVER you must take in to account what the "neutral" cards do to effect the true count. They are worth 0, but they keep the deck diluted with not only "big" cards. THUS, to get the MAXIMUM TC possible you must ALSO remove the 7, 8, and 9. So the RC stays the same (RC +120), but now the number of cards remaining goes down from 192 to 120. With 120 cards remaining that's about 2.3 decks, thus the maximum true count one could possibly reach in a 6D game is 120/2.3 = 52.174. You will literally never see this in your lifetime, and if you do I would be that the deck was gaffed by human error rather than you seeing this "randomly" occur. Either way you should literally bet the table max and watch your 20 push every time and just try to trade blackjacks back and forth with the dealer (because your 3:2 payout will make you win that battle).

Thinking more about this, if there's only aces and 10's left in the deck, the TC division by 2.3 decks seems to be a moot point? Alas, it's all a moot point because this will literally never happen lol.

Quote: Romes

. . . thus the maximum true count one could possibly reach in a 6D game is 120/2.3 = 52.174!

And this brings me back to a strict, British-run grade school in the heart of Djakarta, Indonesia. Wha? Well, I'm immediately reminded of Sister Nurberge (very feisty, 4' 5" French nun, with hands of steel and laser eyes) who taught us arithmetic. "You learn the basics, don't forget to APPLY . . . you APPLY and put into action!!! "

So I learned about TC and RC. I learned about card-counting. I knew that TC = RC/remaining deck estimate.

I did not APPLY . . . forgot to divide RC by the estimated remaining decks, which you have once more eloquently explained.

I can sleep better tonight, knowing I'll never see a TC = +120 (my dreams for the last 2 weeks), but maybe a high 20 . . . that'll work. I'll even DOUBLE my humongous BR session ($100 + $50 emergency for double-down)!!!!

To trip #3!

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

1) assuming hi-lo...(someone correct me if I'm wrong) +52. That would be nothing but 10's/A's.

Indeed, IBYA, you are correct, that the maximum TC is a 6-deck BJ game is 52 for Hi/lo. This assumes Romes's calculations are correct:

Max RC in 6 deck (using Hi/Low): 2, 3, 4, 5, 6... 5*4*6 = +120, HOWEVER you must take in to account what the "neutral" cards do to effect the true count. They are worth 0, but they keep the deck diluted with not only "big" cards. THUS, to get the MAXIMUM TC possible you must ALSO remove the 7, 8, and 9. So the RC stays the same (RC +120), but now the number of cards remaining goes down from 192 to 120. With 120 cards remaining that's about 2.3 decks, thus the maximum true count one could possibly reach in a 6D game is 120/2.3 = 52.174.

With only tens and aces left in the deck, either player or dealer could possibly get A-A as well as 10-10 or A-10.

The player would split his aces, and the dealer would be required to hit his. So you'd be doing more than just trading blackjacks.

A dealer A-A would remove more aces more quickly, and the dealer would need, at a minimum, two more cards (A-A-10-10 = 22 bust) and could possibly draw additional aces, perhaps making a non-busted total (A-A-10-A-A-A-A-A).

So. Assuming six decks with all the cards 2-9 removed, betting "1 unit" each time, what's the minimum and the maximum units that could be won or lost?

One scenario:
Player gets nothing but 10-10, dealer gets nothing other than A-10. Player loses 24 rounds. Then there are no more aces. Last 78 rounds are 10-10 v 10-10.
Player loses 24 units.

Another scenario:
Player gets all the blackjacks, wins 24 hands, pushes the rest. Dealer wins 36 units.

As far as how to get to the point where there are only 10s and Aces left in the shoe? Back counting. Simple as that.

Quote: racquet

With only tens and aces left in the deck, either player or dealer could possibly get A-A as well as 10-10 or A-10.

How interesting! Something to at least give a passing thought of reflection. Your scenarios somewhat match the expected BJ outcomes of 43% win, 48% lose to the dealer, and 9% push, huh?

Thanks for your comment!

Actually, in the scenario where only Aces and 10 valued cards were left, you'd only ever lose (a full bet) in 1 situation... Dealer ace under.

1) Dealer ace showing - you take insurance. Either blackjack or dealer will bust unless he draws 5 more aces.
2) Dealer 10 showing. Either blackjack or then you know the dealer has 20. You can only lose if you split aces and get another ace. Otherwise, split your 10's as much as possible to get aces or other 20's which you know will push.

In this "not real and will never happen scenario" your win rate should be rather huge. Hell, pretty sure you're supposed to be doubling down on your blackjacks here too =). The double, split, and 150% pay for blackjack would be amplified on steroids here. Aka TC +52 the player would absolutely decimate the game, as expected.

Quote: Romes

Aka TC +52 the player would absolutely decimate the game, as expected.

This is now my favorite (and recurring!) dream: TC+ is now in the 50s? What to do . . . ? (Heh! Heh!)

Now that I'm trying to be more math-conscious, I'm remembering the calculations that produced 52.174 as the max TC+ in a 6-deck game.

Just for fun, I applied the concept to "What is the max TC + for an 8-deck game?" and made an interesting discovery.

My calculations (please correct as necessary):

8 decks (416 cards) x 5 (2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s) x 4 suits/deck = 160 RC

416 cards less (8 decks x 3 (7s, 8s, 9s) x 4 suits/deck) 96 = 320 cards left in deck

320/52 = 6.15 decks left

TC = 160/6.15 = 26.016

Huh? For an 8-deck game the max TC+ is LESS than a 6-deck game (52.174)? Almost TWICE as less? Doesn't this signal that -- given a choice -- a 6-deck game is better to play than an 8-deck game? Or am I missing something, like an 8-deck game provides MORE ROUNDS to continue with ramped up bets?

8D....

Take out all the little cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6).. 4 each, 8 decks... 5*4*8 = 160
Take out the middle cards (7, 8, 9)... 4 each, 8 decks... 3*4*8 = 96

Orignal 8D shoe has 416 cards... so 416 - 160 - 96 = 160 card remaining.

160 cards remain, and they're all aces and faces.... RC = +160, 3.0769 decks remaining (160 cards)...

TC = 160/3.0769 = 52.0004.


2D...
104 cards - (little & middle) = 104 - 64 = 40... +40 RC.... and 40 cards remaining (.8077 decks)... TC = 40/.8077 = 49.5233 ...less than 6D and 8D.

Also... What game has a bigger max true count IS A TERRIBLE WAY to decide what game to play. You'll never see TC +25, let alone TC +50. I've been counting for over 10 years and the biggest TC I've ever seen (maybe twice in 10 years) was like +18, if I remember correctly (after TC +10 I'm just max betting and maxing my deviations so they're all the same to me at that point).

Quote: Romes

Also... What game has a bigger max true count IS A TERRIBLE WAY to decide what game to play.

And now I know:

- how to correct my 'rithmetic! 8D TC+ max is just like 6D, 52!

- don't decide on game to play based on max true count!

I think it's high time for me to decompress a week or two, and just practice card-counting.

Counting apps --> here I come!

BTW, BIG Thanks for taking time to explain!

LW