Card Counting Odds

I would love to have a
*****Black Jack Strategy Odds Chart for each COUNT****** (+2, +3, +4, +5...)

For instance, if the
Count: +5
your hand: 13
dealer shown: 8

With the probability of higher cards being dealt,

You will most likely bust.

So would you stay on that hand when the count is high?

Thanks

Quote: austinmanderson

I would love to have a
*****Black Jack Strategy Odds Chart for each COUNT****** (+2, +3, +4, +5...)

In the heat of battle, it's hard enough to know how to ramp your bet and DECIDE WHAT to bet on the next hand of cards as yet unseen. After that, Index plays are themselves pretty tough to remember and keep a handle on. Unless you are a robot, Indexes are your equivalent tool.

Quote:

For instance, if the Count: +5
your hand: 13
dealer shown: 8

So would you stay on that hand when the count is high?

Thanks

No. You've probably lost to the likely 8-10 anyway. I intuitively reckon hit is the correct play and that's without me knowing indexes.

Hi austinmanderson, and welcome to the forums.

What you're referring to are called Index Plays. In card counting, you may have heard of the "Illustrious 18" which is really just the top 18 most profitable index plays. The most obvious, and worth HALF the entire I18 is Insurance. When the True Count (TC) is +3 or greater (Hi/Low count) the player SHOULD take insurance against a dealer's Ace as there are enough bigger cards vs little cards in the deck to make this a good bet.

1) Be careful between the Running Count (RC) and the True Count (TC).
2) Index plays can be made in to charts for each one, but it's way easier to just memorize the individual index plays (in my opinion) as the majority of the cells will stay the same. This way you only have 30 flash cards to remember... The other way you have 500+ cells to remember whilst 80%+ of them remain the same from chart to chart.

Lastly, in your example you would HIT the 13v8. While your thought is on the right path that indeed there are more high cards, there aren't "enough" high cards left to warrant standing 13v8. I honestly don't know the exact index play, but I do know you're not standing 13v8 unless you're at like a TC +15 (which you'll probably see maybe a couple times in your lifetime).

I actually wrote 3 articles on "A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack" that explains these deviations and SO MUCH MORE if you'd like to give them a read (and re-read). The first article is a bit number cumbersome, but the others are less math intensive. And when I say math intensive, I mean more/less basic math (no calculus/etc =P). If you have any follow up questions/comments feel free to reply here, leave them on the articles, post in the A-Z Card Counting thread in the blackjack section, or private message me on the site.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

thank you Romes,

I read your article and may I ask one more question about card counting. What is the ideal amount of people at the table for card counting? If it is just you, your count is limited of what you can count. But if there are 7 people at a table, (you are at first base) the count may have gone completely down before you have received your next card.

Thanks again, Austin

Quote: austinmanderson

thank you Romes,

I read your article and may I ask one more question about card counting. What is the ideal amount of people at the table for card counting? If it is just you, your count is limited of what you can count. But if there are 7 people at a table, (you are at first base) the count may have gone completely down before you have received your next card.

Thanks again, Austin

Hey austin, glad you got to peek at the first article. Do note that there's 3, and I'd highly recommend re-reading each of them as there's a LOT of information to absorb in them.

As far as your question, there's a logical and practical answer.

Logical - 0 other people. When no one else is at the table you'll get more hands per hour. More hands per hour leads to higher Expected Value (EV) and more money to be made in the long run.

Practical - A few other players. Most players on average usually have at least a couple other players at the table with them. This is of course highly variable to what time you go to play. If you go at 5am, well I'm sure you can find an emtpy table. However if you go at 10pm on a Saturday night, you might not be able to get a seat!

The problem with 0 other players is when the count tanks, you can't just sit out to avoid the negative shoe. You have to either eat it by playing through it (highly not recommended) or you have to switch tables. This is why it's not too bad to play with a few other players. It all comes down to the player and dealer. You can be at a full table that plays FASTER than a half full table due to a slow dealer and/or slow players.

While there's reasons to play many different game types/speeds, it comes down to EV... but on "AVERAGE" I'd say it's a good idea to shoot for 70+ hands per hour. If you're going to take the game more seriously and potentially be part/full time then you're going to want around 90+ hands per hour (usually a bit emptier tables).

Also, the different positions mean different things. When you sit in first base you're betting on the next cards coming out, so your bet will more accurately reflect the true count. However, if you're sitting in 3rd base the count might have went down if the first 6 people draw 10's, so your bet won't be "as" accurate BUT you will get the added edge of seeing all of the other cards before you make a decision. In general, your seat position doesn't really matter. You should count the same and make the best decisions for the information you have at the time, regardless of seating position.

Is it better to play at a Casino with 8 deck tables where the dealers consistently place the cut card one deck into the shoe, or a Casino that has 6 deck tables where the dealers consistently place the cut card 2+ decks into the shoe?

Quote: technics

Is it better to play at a Casino with 8 deck tables where the dealers consistently place the cut card one deck into the shoe, or a Casino that has 6 deck tables where the dealers consistently place the cut card 2+ decks into the shoe?

All else the same, I'd play the 8 deck game with 1 deck cut off.

Quote: technics

Is it better to play at a Casino with 8 deck tables where the dealers consistently place the cut card one deck into the shoe, or a Casino that has 6 deck tables where the dealers consistently place the cut card 2+ decks into the shoe?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

All else the same, I'd play the 8 deck game with 1 deck cut off.

Agree with IBYA, however, rarely are all other things the same. What's the heat like at both places? What spread can you get away with? If you hit a $100 bet at Casino A do they call checks play while at casino B you can get up to $500 before they call checks play?

7/8 = 88% PEN
4/6 = 67% PEN

Clearly if the other variables in the equation are "about the same" then the 88% PEN is much more preferred. While this directly answers your simple math question, I invite you to think of the other playing conditions that might also play a factor. Then again, most 8D playing conditions are usually better because of silly pits that think 8D's "can't be counted" or that counters will only play 6D games, etc, etc. 8D's can be a good game =).

"All else the same" includes heat, etc. :-)

MGM here, when it was 8 decks, dealt 7-7.5 of 8 decks. Still about 5 of 6 now.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

"All else the same" includes heat, etc. :-)

MGM here, when it was 8 decks, dealt 7-7.5 of 8 decks. Still about 5 of 6 now.

And there's a great 3/2 DD game at MGM in vegas sometimes for $25 that cuts 65% PEN... but if you raise your bet in a positive count you get entered in to a database =P.

I know you knew you were including heat in to that... Just wanted to make sure it was in black and white for the person with the question. I find a TON of newer and even semi-advanced players get hard focused on rules, and forget other conditions such as heat, etc. =)

I played that great DD game alot, but mostly at the even sweatier Mirage. Had no problems. Ask Teddys. :-)

People ramp their bets up to quickly in those games. You have to be more subtle.

Thanks to both of you. That was my thinking too, but I wanted to get the opinion of others.

Thanks to both of you. That was my opinion also, but I wanted the opinion of others. Thanks again.

I've read all 3 articles thank you. When I play 1 on 1 with the dealer, if i am offered insurance, I will count the 3 up cards and make my insurance decision off of that. However if there are more people would it be beneficial to try to count all of their cards (single deck FACE DOWN deals) which is difficult, or is the probability the same?

Also, will I get kicked out if I play your spread strategy? Honestly I will only be playing $5 tables and make $500 on a good day. Is that too much of a threat to a casino that they will bar me?

Quote: austinmanderson

I've read all 3 articles thank you. When I play 1 on 1 with the dealer, if i am offered insurance, I will count the 3 up cards and make my insurance decision off of that. However if there are more people would it be beneficial to try to count all of their cards (single deck FACE DOWN deals) which is difficult, or is the probability the same?

When playing a SD or DD "pitch" game, where the cards are dealt face down, you can't count other peoples cards unless they show them to you or turn them up... So usually it's best to just take what information you can and factor that in to your RC and TC for your current decisions. All other cards should be treated as "unseen" cards though, so if you're for 'some' reason at a full table of 6 and there are 5 other people with 2 cards each unknown, that's almost a quarter of a deck that would go in to your True Count conversion. Not that it's impossible, but I find it a bit difficult to believe you found a decent SD game to count? Either it's 6:5 or you'd get the boot really quick as SD and even DD games are generally watched fairly closely.

Quote: austinmanderson

Also, will I get kicked out if I play your spread strategy? Honestly I will only be playing $5 tables and make $500 on a good day. Is that too much of a threat to a casino that they will bar me?

Lots to discuss here... First, which spread are you reviewing? If you read the articles (and re-read them) then you'd note that I state DD and SD are much more closely guarded and you often need smaller spreads and cover to play them. 1-8 is the average DD spread, and I'd think SD would be more like 1-5 or 1-6. At the $5 tables if you spread $5-$40, which should definitely get you heat on a SD game, you still wouldn't make anything NEAR $500 in EV for an entire day. IF you found a good SD game (.31%), spread $5-$40 playing down to TC -2 and maxing at TC +3, your hourly would still be something like $10/hour (and that's not even accounting for cover). EVEN IF you camped the game out for 10 hours per day you still wouldn't expect to make more than $100... and p.s. you'd probably get kicked out before 1 hour on 1 day. You'd need a $25-$200 spread on that SD game (which would get you tossed in probably about 15 minutes) to get around $50/hour (again without cover) and you'd STILL need to camp it for 10 hours per day to try to get $500 in EV per day.

I'd definitely suggest re-reading the articles and looking for more tid bits of information and continuing to ask more questions while you have them =).

Your spread from Kelly. ($10 to $160) the one you personally use that is "aggressive".

My apologies, my statistics of getting $500 are based on a 20 pt. spread I use to practice with which will likely get me kicked out. I really don't want to only make $50 a day. I will use your camouflage technique to make more quicker (hopefully)

And Wendover, Nevada has great face down SD in my opinion, black jack pays 3:2 except no surrender is allowed.

thank you for your help; I really appreciate it

Quote: austinmanderson

Your spread from Kelly. ($10 to $160) the one you personally use that is "aggressive".

My apologies, my statistics of getting $500 are based on a 20 pt. spread I use to practice with which will likely get me kicked out. I really don't want to only make $50 a day. I will use your camouflage technique to make more quicker (hopefully)

And Wendover, Nevada has great face down SD in my opinion, black jack pays 3:2 except no surrender is allowed.

Yeah, a 1-20 spread on a SD game will get you kicked out for sure, quite possibly before you even reach 20 units =P. The interesting thing is a LOT of beginners always focus on SD and DD because it's easier for them to convert the True Count... but if you really wanted to make $500 per day, you'd look in to 6 and 8 deck games with decent penetration. Even H17 games with good PEN can make good money (because usually the heat is less and you can spread incredibly harder than SD/DD). I've had 6 and 8 deck games that I could literally bet either $10 or $200 and not bet anything in between and haven't been blinked at. So if you want to make real money, I'd honestly push you away from SD and DD games. Those are generally closely watched too, which if you get picked off enough could result in you getting your name in some databases which will burn you from ever using ID/players cards (without using friends/fakes/etc/etc). I've been counting for over 10 years and to this day I believe I'm still not in any databases/etc.

Quote: austinmanderson

thank you for your help; I really appreciate it

No problem, glad to be able to lend some advice.

Quote: austinmanderson

Honestly I will only be playing $5 tables and make $500 on a good day. Is that too much of a threat to a casino that they will bar me?

Quote: Romes

At the $5 tables if you spread $5-$40, which should definitely get you heat on a SD game, you still wouldn't make anything NEAR $500 in EV for an entire day.

Newbies often talk about their best days, rather than their average days.

When I used to spread $5-25 or $5-50 on SD, my best days were $500-950. (Even though EV might only be $5-10-15/hr for basic counting).
...typically $100-300/day would be good, but also offset by many negative days. Maybe 55-60% positive days, 40-45% negative days.

Never could make $1,000 in a day on a $5 base bet.
Best I did was $20 -> $1,100 -> leave table at $950. +$930.
I tried like crazy to cross the $1,000 threshold for the rest of the day, no luck.

Worst day at $5 BJ was the next day at -$1,200.