Help with Card Counting

So for a couple months now me and a friend of mine have been studying the art of card counting and trying to formulate the spreads, bankroll etc. that we will need to realistically give us a shot at winning in the long term. We are long time basic strategy players with roughly 700 hours each logged on our players cards at one casino as BS players and we are tired of relying on pure luck and playing an overall losing game. What we have decided to do is try and pool our money together to create a bankroll for us to play as a two man team where each of us plays at seperate tables. We plan to use a hi-lo system in casinos that traditionally offer 6 deck games, 3:2 BJ, H17, DAS, no surrender, and split up to 4 hands. Using the wizard of odds calculator we have found ourselves to be at about a 0.64% disadvantage playing BS under the given set of rules. What I am wondering is what type of bet spread we will need to employ to make playing worth our time. We will have a $5000 bank roll by the time we start and were hoping to use a spread that plays as such:

0, <0 $5
+1 $10
+2 $20
+3 $30
+4 $40 (2 hands if possible)
+5 $50 (2-3 hands if possible)

We are wondering if we combine all of this with BS and the I18 what we can generally expect as an outcome and what changes, given our bankroll, will improve our odds of beating the casino. We are fortunate enough to live in a town with about 2 smaller casinos and 10 bars that carry 2-4 BJ tables and have minimal security all within a short walk of each other, so we don't believe we will have too many issues with overstaying our welcome or trying to keep a low profile. Thank you all for your help and I can't wait to read what you have to say on the matter

With a $5000 bankroll that evidently can't be easily replenished, betting $150 at +5 might be overbetting. Spreading 1-10 in small casinos will not allow a low profile. Beating the house but getting banned isn't positive value.
I'd go slow, with a $10-30 spread and play patient. Pay almost as much attention to the pit as to the cards, so as to not wear out your weekend.

Hey Mitch, welcome to the forums. Great first post... You gave a lot of information and asked some great questions... There's a few things we can go over:

1) Click on these later, but you'll want to review my A to Z articles published on the WoV site here in the Articles Section. These will go over most everything I'm about to share with you, as well as give you the information and tools necessary to calculate your own EV for ANY game of blackjack you could play! Again, I'd check these out after seeing the other answers.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

2) Why are you upping your bet at TC +1?

Each True Count is worth ~.5% to the player. If the HE is .64% then at TC +1 the HE is still .14%, and by upping your bet here all you're doing is losing more money. In my articles I have spreadsheets (linked on Google Docs for your download) that I encourage you to plug in your spread and play with. Basically it takes the TC Frequency (how often per 100 hands you'll see all the TC's) then multiplies it by your advantage at that TC and then your bet. This is how your "gain per hand" is calculated, which is the value you can expect from that situation in the long run.

I understand that was a mouthful, but basically look at this:

TC +1, .14% HE, $5 bet = -0.0805 gain per hand... So every time you're in this situation you'll lose 8 cents in the long run.
TC +1, .14% HE, $10 bet = -0.161 gain per hand... So every time you're in this situation you'll lose 16 cents in the long run.

Given you see TC +1 ~11.5 times per 100 hands, this means by betting $10 as opposed to your minimum (while the house still has the advantage) you're losing $1.84 per hour instead of $0.92 per hour. Thus with this decision you're losing almost $1 per hour from your EV. Sounds small, but mistakes like this add up!

You only want to up your bet at TC +1 if you're playing a game that has a base HE < .5%, because then at TC +1 you'll have an advantage (albeit small).

3) Bankroll / Max Bet

The majority of the time people can only get a certain amount of bankroll. This is what will then determine their max bet due to Risk of Ruin (RoR) considerations. If you guys are going to be part time players, then you should shoot for an RoR < 5%, but any level of seriousness with the game should really be around 1% or under. The amount of risk you're willing to take is of course up to you guys, and I would be lying if I didn't say my RoR was wayyyyyy higher than that when I started out (unbeknownst to me) =).

One way to get your max bet is to purchase simulation software and plug in different spreads with the game rules and it will literally tell you. Another way is to sort of reverse engineer it based off of your EV +/- SD. I go in to a lot more detail on this in the Q/A section in the 3rd article so I don't really want to rehash it all here... but basically pick a spread, from that you'll have your average bet, then you plug that in to the EV and SD formulas to find out what's the "worst" you could do at any given point and thus you know that's how much money you could potentially need.

To be honest, with $5,000 at the $5 tables, and both playing separate tables to get to the long run quicker, you can probably up your bet a bit more (but make sure first the casino won't give you heat for spreading ($5-$75)... but your Bankroll should be able to handle that.

4) Bet Spread

For the HE above (.64%) and your spread above, also assuming you play down into TC -1, that your hourly EV is approximately $4.09/hour.

...Not good, but there's a couple reasons for that. First was already mentioned that you're losing almost $1/hour just by betting $10 on TC +1, so that's gotta change. Next, let's face it without even knowing the penetration you're playing a not so good game. Next you're getting your max bet out entirely too late. Especially if heat is not a concern for you at the $5 tables then you should be getting that max bet out at TC +4 or even TC +3. Personally I used to spread $5-$50 on the $5 tables when starting out and got ZERO heat to the point where I eventually had my spread $5 - 2x$80... but again, that was after some testing and knowing my place wasn't going to give me any heat. As was pointed out if you get kicked out, then your EV there will be 0 =/... So let's make a profitable but safe spread for now, but with the understanding that as your bankroll grows and awareness of heat that potentially your spread could either grow or change (get max bet out at TC +3 instead of +4, etc).

Lastly, something else in the articles but I want to hit on is TC +3 is actually he most profitable true count for the player. This has to do with how much of an advantage you have combined with how frequently you'll see this situation (TC Frequencies). Sure TC +7 is approximately a 3% edge, but guess what you see that once every 200 hands! TC +3 has a solid ~1% edge AND you see that ~4 times per 100 hands.

So with that in mind, here's the spread I'll recommend for you guys:

-1 = $5
0 = $5
+1 = $5
+2 = $15
+3 = $40
+4 >= $60

With this spread your hourly EV is approximately $6/hour. Now I realize this isn't much, but you're also playing a pretty poor game =/. It's $6/hour for EACH you and your partner, and you're just starting out. PENETRATION is going to be pretty important for you guys in this game. If the PEN is <75% then I would NOT recommend you guys play that game. It will just be too hard for you to beat on a short spread/bankroll with limited TC Frequencies (the more penetration the more opportunities you get to bet bigger - also explained in the articles).

The thing that hurts you most is there's not a lot of tables/games near you so table hopping (Wong'ing out) in negative counts is going to be difficult for you. IF you learn you can get away with it... You need to get your max bet out by TC +3... so basically:

-1 = $5
0 = $5
+1 = $5
+2 = $30
+3 >= $60

(that would get you approximately $8/hour each)

5) Future Considerations

As your bankroll grows your spreads are going to grow. Eventually you'll need to have a base bet of $15 or $25 so that you can spread to bigger maxes such as $150 or $250... I've only come across a couple places in a decade that would "probably" have let me spread $5-$250 lol... but more than likely yours will NOT! So at that time you'll need to revamp your spread and re-run your EV's/etc. If you come across more opportunities, take road trips to casinos with more tables, etc, then you could be picky on when you Wong out, how aggressive you are, etc.

Quote: billryan

With a $5000 bankroll that evidently can't be easily replenished, betting $150 at +5 might be overbetting. Spreading 1-10 in small casinos will not allow a low profile. Beating the house but getting banned isn't positive value.
I'd go slow, with a $10-30 spread and play patient. Pay almost as much attention to the pit as to the cards, so as to not wear out your weekend.

I would unfortunately not recommend a $10-$30 spread unless you were just using it to learn to count. $10-$30 will not be profitable... Even if you have your big bet out at TC +2 (first player advantage) so you either bet $10 or $30 the hourly EV comes out to be approximately $0.40/hour, and that doesn't account for mistakes (which yes we all make)!

Whatever you do, do not learn by watching these new vlogs popping up on YouTube. These guys are atrocious.

p.s. After reading through those articles (a couple times) feel free to post any questions back in this thread or PM me.

I very much appreciate your post and after the work day has settled I will sit down and read them... But what's the opinion now on spreading out to 2-3 hands when the count is highly favorable (+3 or more)? I know this would draw a little more attention from the pits, but we are not afraid to be aggressive at the small time joints we plan to frequent a lot of the time. Is this something we need to feel out a bit at first and then determine based on location what we probably can or cannot get away with? Also, what simulation software would you recommend?

Quote: Mitch8017

I very much appreciate your post and after the work day has settled I will sit down and read them... But what's the opinion now on spreading out to 2-3 hands when the count is highly favorable (+3 or more)? I know this would draw a little more attention from the pits, but we are not afraid to be aggressive at the small time joints we plan to frequent a lot of the time. Is this something we need to feel out a bit at first and then determine based on location what we probably can or cannot get away with? Also, what simulation software would you recommend?

I might go to 2 hands but 3 is asking for trouble... It all depends on how the casino will handle it. If they give you no heat, then 3 hands it is. If they give you heat, then you might not even be able to spread to 2. Each shop is different and you can only really know by getting the low down from someone that played there recently or finding out yourself.

You kinda are counter intuitive... You want to be super aggressive with them, but then you plan to play there a lot. Usually if you're super aggressive with a place before long they won't let you play there anymore. You need to be aggressive for now, but mindful of any heat and make your final decisions after some sessions and seeing how the heat is.

CVCX is good simulation software.

The reason I recommend a $10-$30 spread is to keep them playing. Far too many new counters I run into spread too far and too fast and end up not being able to play at all. Better to be the turtle than the hard.

Quote: Romes

Hey Mitch, welcome to the forums. Great first post... You gave a lot of information and asked some great questions... There's a few things we can go over:

1) Click on these later, but you'll want to review my A to Z articles published on the WoV site here in the Articles Section. These will go over most everything I'm about to share with you, as well as give you the information and tools necessary to calculate your own EV for ANY game of blackjack you could play! Again, I'd check these out after seeing the other answers.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

2) Why are you upping your bet at TC +1?

Each True Count is worth ~.5% to the player. If the HE is .64% then at TC +1 the HE is still .14%, and by upping your bet here all you're doing is losing more money. In my articles I have spreadsheets (linked on Google Docs for your download) that I encourage you to plug in your spread and play with. Basically it takes the TC Frequency (how often per 100 hands you'll see all the TC's) then multiplies it by your advantage at that TC and then your bet. This is how your "gain per hand" is calculated, which is the value you can expect from that situation in the long run.

I understand that was a mouthful, but basically look at this:

TC +1, .14% HE, $5 bet = -0.0805 gain per hand... So every time you're in this situation you'll lose 8 cents in the long run.
TC +1, .14% HE, $10 bet = -0.161 gain per hand... So every time you're in this situation you'll lose 16 cents in the long run.

Given you see TC +1 ~11.5 times per 100 hands, this means by betting $10 as opposed to your minimum (while the house still has the advantage) you're losing $1.84 per hour instead of $0.92 per hour. Thus with this decision you're losing almost $1 per hour from your EV. Sounds small, but mistakes like this add up!

You only want to up your bet at TC +1 if you're playing a game that has a base HE < .5%, because then at TC +1 you'll have an advantage (albeit small).

3) Bankroll / Max Bet

The majority of the time people can only get a certain amount of bankroll. This is what will then determine their max bet due to Risk of Ruin (RoR) considerations. If you guys are going to be part time players, then you should shoot for an RoR < 5%, but any level of seriousness with the game should really be around 1% or under. The amount of risk you're willing to take is of course up to you guys, and I would be lying if I didn't say my RoR was wayyyyyy higher than that when I started out (unbeknownst to me) =).

One way to get your max bet is to purchase simulation software and plug in different spreads with the game rules and it will literally tell you. Another way is to sort of reverse engineer it based off of your EV +/- SD. I go in to a lot more detail on this in the Q/A section in the 3rd article so I don't really want to rehash it all here... but basically pick a spread, from that you'll have your average bet, then you plug that in to the EV and SD formulas to find out what's the "worst" you could do at any given point and thus you know that's how much money you could potentially need.

To be honest, with $5,000 at the $5 tables, and both playing separate tables to get to the long run quicker, you can probably up your bet a bit more (but make sure first the casino won't give you heat for spreading ($5-$75)... but your Bankroll should be able to handle that.

4) Bet Spread

For the HE above (.64%) and your spread above, also assuming you play down into TC -1, that your hourly EV is approximately $4.09/hour.

...Not good, but there's a couple reasons for that. First was already mentioned that you're losing almost $1/hour just by betting $10 on TC +1, so that's gotta change. Next, let's face it without even knowing the penetration you're playing a not so good game. Next you're getting your max bet out entirely too late. Especially if heat is not a concern for you at the $5 tables then you should be getting that max bet out at TC +4 or even TC +3. Personally I used to spread $5-$50 on the $5 tables when starting out and got ZERO heat to the point where I eventually had my spread $5 - 2x$80... but again, that was after some testing and knowing my place wasn't going to give me any heat. As was pointed out if you get kicked out, then your EV there will be 0 =/... So let's make a profitable but safe spread for now, but with the understanding that as your bankroll grows and awareness of heat that potentially your spread could either grow or change (get max bet out at TC +3 instead of +4, etc).

Lastly, something else in the articles but I want to hit on is TC +3 is actually he most profitable true count for the player. This has to do with how much of an advantage you have combined with how frequently you'll see this situation (TC Frequencies). Sure TC +7 is approximately a 3% edge, but guess what you see that once every 200 hands! TC +3 has a solid ~1% edge AND you see that ~4 times per 100 hands.

So with that in mind, here's the spread I'll recommend for you guys:

-1 = $5
0 = $5
+1 = $5
+2 = $15
+3 = $40
+4 >= $60

With this spread your hourly EV is approximately $6/hour. Now I realize this isn't much, but you're also playing a pretty poor game =/. It's $6/hour for EACH you and your partner, and you're just starting out. PENETRATION is going to be pretty important for you guys in this game. If the PEN is <75% then I would NOT recommend you guys play that game. It will just be too hard for you to beat on a short spread/bankroll with limited TC Frequencies (the more penetration the more opportunities you get to bet bigger - also explained in the articles).

The thing that hurts you most is there's not a lot of tables/games near you so table hopping (Wong'ing out) in negative counts is going to be difficult for you. IF you learn you can get away with it... You need to get your max bet out by TC +3... so basically:

-1 = $5
0 = $5
+1 = $5
+2 = $30
+3 >= $60

(that would get you approximately $8/hour each)

5) Future Considerations

As your bankroll grows your spreads are going to grow. Eventually you'll need to have a base bet of $15 or $25 so that you can spread to bigger maxes such as $150 or $250... I've only come across a couple places in a decade that would "probably" have let me spread $5-$250 lol... but more than likely yours will NOT! So at that time you'll need to revamp your spread and re-run your EV's/etc. If you come across more opportunities, take road trips to casinos with more tables, etc, then you could be picky on when you Wong out, how aggressive you are, etc.

I would unfortunately not recommend a $10-$30 spread unless you were just using it to learn to count. $10-$30 will not be profitable... Even if you have your big bet out at TC +2 (first player advantage) so you either bet $10 or $30 the hourly EV comes out to be approximately $0.40/hour, and that doesn't account for mistakes (which yes we all make)!

WRONG. +1 you do have an edge with average to good rules. And each true count is not worth +.5%, thats just an estimate used. A TC of +1 is actually worth about +.75% and after subtracting it from the HE, in almost all case you have the edge. Just look at CVCX and it will tell you you have about a +.30 - .50% edge depending on rules. So yes it's okay to start raising your bet at +1. Not only does it lower N0, but also increases win rate and SCORE. Your ROR barely goes up as well. It's a good trade off

Quote: ZenKinG

WRONG. +1 you do have an edge with average to good rules. And each true count is not worth +.5%, thats just an estimate used. A TC of +1 is actually worth about +.75% and after subtracting it from the HE, in almost all case you have the edge. Just look at CVCX and it will tell you you have about a +.30 - .50% edge depending on rules. So yes it's okay to start raising your bet at +1. Not only does it lower N0, but also increases win rate and SCORE. Your ROR barely goes up as well. It's a good trade off

On AVERAGE the information I gave is absolutely correct. Of course anyone getting serious about counting could/should simulate their own specific game for rules and penetration to see what the exact numbers are. Notice my post above where I stated "CVCX is good simulation software"?? Upping your bet earlier will also increase your variance, and it will barely increase the SCORE of the game by pennies in the cases where you're correct that the TC is worth more than .5%. For someone starting out this is stuff way over their head so it's clearly a better idea to get them to a point of having a solid winning game rather than splitting hairs over pennies and "SCORE" to confuse them.