Help needed with card counting.

Hi guys and gals,

When I started gambling I was a blackjack player. I used basic strategy. Then, when my favorite casino started switching over to CSMs I started looking for another game. That's when I got into playing craps. I have had a pretty fun and profitable few years playing craps. Now I am getting the itch for blackjack again. Mostly because I don't like playing on tables with like 15 people and being cramped up. When I started playing craps I learned everything I could about the game. I am trying to do the same with blackjack.

Part of my new adventure into blackjack is finding ways go increase my odds of winning. Two things that I have come across so far that can increase my chances are basic strategy and card counting. I have been practicing high/lo and have gotten pretty good at keeping the count. However, I have found that there is more to it than keeping the count and converting to a true count. There are other charts that teach you when to deviate from basic strategy. You also need to use the correct bet spread to beat the rules and amount of decks you are playing against. This leads me to my questions.

What do I need to learn besides just keeping the count and playing with basic strategy?

Where can I find all the other charts that tell you when to deviate from basic strategy and what are they called?

How do you determine your bet spread when playing in accordance with the count?

Do you use the same deviation charts and rules regardless of which counting method you use?

One thing I am really confused about is it seams it would be really easy for the casino to tell your counting. The reason I say this is because your always going to have more st risk when the count is good and next to nothing when it's bad. I don't see a way to comoflage this. What can be done about this?

Is there anything else that needs to be learned that I left out?

I want to give this my best shot like I did with craps. However, the information seams a little harder to obtain than it was for craps. At least for me. Maybe I just need pointed in the right direction then most will come together and make sense. I appreciate you guys taking the time to read this and offer your suggestions.

Thank you,
Rocky

Hey Rocky,

I'll answer some of your more straight up questions, but do know that in order to sum up all this information in one place for anyone who wants it I created 3 articles that are on this site that will answer all of your questions and more... you just might have to read and re-read them a couple times to make sure you get everything out of them =).

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: grimreaper1014

What do I need to learn besides just keeping the count and playing with basic strategy?

Bankroll management, Risk of Ruin, calculating EV, identifying heat, dealing with heat, avoiding heat, different basic strategy pending H17/S17, Illustrious 18, scavenger plays... and probably a couple more things I'm forgetting =).

Quote: grimreaper1014

How do you determine your bet spread when playing in accordance with the count?

Well, this mostly depends on your bankroll and your Risk of Ruin (RoR). This is more explained in the articles, but basically for your set bankroll you can determine what your "max bet" is that will give you a comfortable RoR so you won't go broke... Then when you know your min bet and your top bet you can structure the True Counts in between as you see fit to get to your top bet and to try to get the most out that you can while having an advantage.

Quote: grimreaper1014

Do you use the same deviation charts and rules regardless of which counting method you use?

There are some differences pending the different counting systems. If you're already practicing Hi/Low I personally would recommend sticking to that for now. Once you've mastered it and know the full math behind it (Playing Efficiency, Betting Correlation, and Insurance Correlation) you can later decide if you think the small gains that come from more complex systems is worth it for you or not. The counting system you make the least amount of mistakes with is the right counting system for you. I personally have used Hi/Low for over a decade and always recommend it to new counters. With Hi/Low you'll have the Illustrious 18 (I18) which are the top 18 most profitable deviations to make while counting... Taking insurance at TC +3 against a dealers ace is worth HALF of the entire I18 list. Once you have those MASTERED, you can move on to more and more deviations if you'd like. There are tons and tons, but they don't always come up that often so that's why some counters stick to the I18 and don't bother learning more, though if you're going to get serious about counting I would encourage you to learn a few more. Counting, like most other things in life, you get out of it what you put in to it.

Quote: grimreaper1014

One thing I am really confused about is it seams it would be really easy for the casino to tell your counting. The reason I say this is because your always going to have more st risk when the count is good and next to nothing when it's bad. I don't see a way to comoflage this. What can be done about this?

You'd think so, but a I've had pit bosses in the last couple years tell me no one can count a 6 or 8 deck shoe. You'd be astonished with the ignorance of some casinos. That's not to say other casinos won't pick you off, but there are indicators that you want to work on hiding... In the articles I discuss camouflage and other techniques (such as short sessions and rotating casinos if you can). If you can't and you have one place to play by your house then usually this results in a bit of a softer bet spread and playing down to TC -1 or TC -2, betting a bit more off the top if you were betting hard at the end of the previous shoe, etc, etc. These are the things that will enable you to camp out for hours at your local shop and count.

Trust me, everything you need to know to have a winning and efficient game is in these 3 articles... You just might want to read and then re-read them to make sure you soak it all up! Feel free to comment on the articles or PM me if you have any follow up questions. =)

Hi Romes,

Thank you so much for your response. I really appreciate you taking the time to reply in such detail. This is great stuff. This will be a great article for others who want to learn as well. I am going to read through everything. I will post any questions that I have. I will also document everything here as I get better at this. I think it will be a great way to help others in my situation. Once again thanks a bunch for your help.

No worries, and hopefully you find the information useful =)... If you do become a competent card counter, I would just ask that one day you pass your knowledge on to someone else that's starting down the path you're walking now. I'm not saying give away AP plays or anything, just that as I had some people/websites/books give me the knowledge I have today in the future be sure to pay it forward!

I 100% agree. That's the way I operate as well. I wish there was more people out there like that. What actually got me started down this path was helping others ;)

Quote: Romes

No worries, and hopefully you find the information useful =)... If you do become a competent card counter, I would just ask that one day you pass your knowledge on to someone else that's starting down the path you're walking now. I'm not saying give away AP plays or anything, just that as I had some people/websites/books give me the knowledge I have today in the future be sure to pay it forward!

I consider Romes the "King of Paying it Forward" when it comes to blackjack AP's. Serious kudos for putting the time in to those articles Romes...they are quite valuable to even recreational players that want to understand the nuts and bolts behind card counting blackjack. Now I need your help getting better at NL Texas Hold'em...but you already knew that ;-).

Quote: Paradigm

I consider Romes the "King of Paying it Forward" when it comes to blackjack AP's. Serious kudos for putting the time in to those articles Romes...they are quite valuable to even recreational players that want to understand the nuts and bolts behind card counting blackjack. Now I need your help getting better at NL Texas Hold'em...but you already knew that ;-).

Haha, thanks Paradigm. I do sincerely appreciate the kind words. NL Hold'em classes start at $1,000/hour! Kidding of course. I've taught a few people to play NL Texas Hold'em and my other specialty - Omaha. It's a very exhaustive process as you can get a good base line for things but a TON of the experience comes from just playing hands and hands and oh by the way more hands and having an experienced player talk you though the hands so you can understand their thought process and see why they do the things they do. The hands and hands makes that "training" last a while =p.

My favorite way to give lessons is to do basically what we did... Get a group of newbies and a couple experienced players together with some cash and just play. The only difference, just like in our game, if you asked me why I did something instead of being quiet or not telling I pretty much shared my thought process on most hands with the table =).

Only downside to my OCD is when Mr. Wizard wouldn't "100%" confirm the read I had on his hands/cards, though I still feel 95%+ that I was correct on my reads on him. Smart on him (in a normal game) not to give that info up, but for our fun game, I'd rather share =D.

Someday we'll make this happen...been watching some "Grinder Pros" make vlogs recently on YouTube...seems to be a new to me thing, maybe it has been going on for a while. Interesting stuff as it is a lot of what they are thinking at the time. I am sure quality of their play varies greatly, but still entertaining and picking up some stuff. All seem to get banned from filming at the table by about episode 3 ;-)...then it is just the talk through as they re-live hands.

Time is my problem...I think I could get at least somewhat better were it not for things like my CPA business getting in the way...oh and some table game distribution duties (but since the starting skill point is pretty low ;-), not sure that "getting better" is saying much). I do enjoy the game, but feel safer at limit which is a far different game for sure. NL tournaments are fun for me as well, but it has been a while.

If we get a group together in Vegas again, that would be fun...lessons at $100 per buy in, haha. For the record, I came away up $30 even after the re-buy...what is that saying, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every so often"!!

Quote: Paradigm

...If we get a group together in Vegas again, that would be fun...lessons at $100 per buy in, haha. For the record, I came away up $30 even after the re-buy...what is that saying, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every so often"!!

Hah, well if we do here's a tip upfront: Play "big ball poker."

Small Ball Poker: What pro's want to play. That means we keep the pot sizes smaller because we believe over a larger number of hands our skill advantage will overcome.

Big Ball Poker: Coin flip the hell out of us. If you have AK and I even TELL you that I have like J-J, just shove all in on me. A pro doesn't want to "gamble" a 50/50 with someone they think they have a skill advantage over. They'd rather play small ball poker (see above) and keep the pots small to now allow the "beginner" to get lucky in 1 pot for all the money. Variance is the friend of a newbie/beginner against a pro... So play big ball poker and shove all in on us more. Trust me, as long as you don't run in to the trap of a big hand you'll get pro's to fold a lot of strong hands that they'd otherwise beat you out of small/medium pots with. In the short run, this would help enable any beginner to beat any pro in any given hand.

Think of it this way - If a beginner plays tight, the pro can pick him apart and bluff pots off him until the big hand when the pro has the nuts. If the beginner shoves all in LITERALLY EVERY HAND, the pro will wait until they have a solid advantage, thus folding the majority of the time. When any beginner is in doubt with poker, they should always error on the side of aggression because it gives them 2 ways to win. The opponent could fold the best hand, or call and the beginner could outdraw them. By always calling you only leave yourself one way to win... you gotta have the nuts.

Part of what needs to be learned is how to handle "heat" and keeping your play disguised in a real casino. This will come through experience and patience. Start small to build your confidence.

Quote: Romes

Big Ball Poker: Coin flip the hell out of us. If you have AK and I even TELL you that I have like J-J, just shove all in on me.

First calculator I found on google says ak is a 43% underdog to jj. Is the reason to shove because of the chance you think I have qq, kk, or aa?

Quote: Romes

A pro doesn't want to "gamble" a 50/50 with someone they think they have a skill advantage over.

Maybe not a 50/50, but I'm sure they would love to be on the right side of 56/43.

Quote: TomG

First calculator I found on google says ak is a 43% underdog to jj. Is the reason to shove because of the chance you think I have qq, kk, or aa?



Maybe not a 50/50, but I'm sure they would love to be on the right side of 56/43.

Those are the correct numbers... but it's not about that. If I'm a pro, and I know I'm better than you... Why would I stuff my money in with 56/43? Why not play more hands and just kill you slowly with lower variance? Variance is the enemy of the pro and the blessing to the newbie. Pro's will fear the variance because they could lose to the amateur in 1 hand that way where as if they play it out over the course of a few hours the amateur has virtually zero chance of winning.

RE: Anyone can get lucky in 1 hand... but luck won't save you in "the long run" or if we play many more hands, basically. Show me someone that's bad that I could beat 99/100 times. Why would I want to give him a 1 hand shot at beating me for all the money when I know this guy has zero chance if we just keep playing out more hands and I find better spots (such as trapping with a made hand, etc)? Honestly, if I knew someone was terrible, and they announced they had AK and I had JJ in a tournament for big money and we were down to heads up... I'd fold the JJ. If I knew he was bad then I'd much rather get my money in for the "big tournament winnings" in a better spot crushing the amateur.