Specific Odds Questions

Hi all,

I'm writing a quick simulator of my betting strategies/progressions and realized one of my main assumptions was wrong. This is impacting the simulation because my betting pattern is based on the number of hands I've won in a row.

The issue is that I was assuming that in a game with a 0.4% house edge, the casino would win 50.2% and i would win 49.8% of all hands. Of course, this is absurd - further research has shown the player apparently wins something like 42% of hands, pushes 8%, and the casino wins 49%. Obviously the house edge is so much smaller than 7% (49-42) because the player can double/split advantageously (plus blackjacks). I feel rather dumb for not seeing that at first. :)

The reason this is so important for my simulator is because I found I was hitting significantly high bets more often than i do in practice - I deduced this was a result of winning decisions being set to 49.8%, as opposed to 42%. (Much harder to win X number of hands in a row at 42 than 49, of course.)

What I'd love to get, but have been unable to attain through standard online searching, is the following:

% hands where there is no double/split. Then, of these, % hands player wins, % hands player pushes, % hands player loses
% hands where there is a double. Then, of these, % hands player wins, % hands player pushes, % hands player loses
% hands where there is a split. Then, of these, % hands player wins, % hands player pushes, % hands player loses
% hands where there is a player blackjack. Then of these, %hands player wins, % hands player pushes

The percents on the left would all have to add to 100% going down. The percents on the right would add to 100% going across.

I'm assuming the following rules:

Surrender
3-2
6 deck
stay soft 17
split aces once
double any two

Does anyone have access to this data? It would be enormously helpful. I'd love to share my simulator once complete...

Thanks!

On WOO there is a chart that shows how frequently you win/lose different amounts. It's not broken up into splits and doubles, but an outcome from -8 to +8, since you can split up to 4 hands and double all 4. That should be enough to get you on the right path. Note: Betting systems don't work, but you'll find that out soon enough.

Thank you - will check it out. And ha, well aware that betting systems don't work, and expected value is always negative. That's not what I'm attempting to simulate.

I'm trying to quantify how various bet progressions and end-session strategies translate into winning session percentage and standard deviation of results. It's about figuring out the right balance of my risk-tolerance for losing sessions, average bets (for comp expectations), and expected value of my winning sessions.

Thanks again for the nudge in the right direction.

Re: average bet for comp purposes -- this is typically going to be quite innacurate unless you're constantly betting the same amount or constantly varying your bets. But if you flat bet $5 most of the time and then rarely vary it aggressively to a few hundred.....the boss might put you down for a few hundred or for $5.

Agree re: the inaccuracy of the average bet, and it can be maddening. Still, I find it directionally correct in most cases - or at least correct enough to consistently get the same level of offer.

My bets do vary quite a bit, but with a sense of consistency.