Have I been 'overestimating' my EV?

First off, for the people that i haven't pissed off yet, hopefully you will be able to help me on this matter. And for the people who i have pissed off, to be fair, you guys have been a little too sensitive and attacked me or my credentials first for me to get 'cocky' or 'arrogant' in my replies as i tend to not take criticism that lightly, especially unwarranted 'criticism'.

So here is my dilemma. I think my main problem has been i have been 'overestimating' my EV. I've been using the archived sims in CVCX because the parameters are pretty much the same or at least i thought it was. Only recently I found out it has 'split to 4 hands' whereas the games i play can only split to 3 times. I also feel like the archived sims are a bit bugged out on the wonging aspect such as when you select 'play 2 hands at 0' the win rate is higher than when you put 'play 2 hands' at 1 even though my bets are the same with backcounting selected at +1. I started to run my own sims a month or so back and i found out my EV is much less about 50% less than the archived sim. I then started to think to myself something is wrong here, either my sim is wrong or the archived sim is way off.

Surely not being able to split to a 4th hand doesnt warrant a 50% decrease in EV. Hopefully the people who i havent pissed off enough in this thread can chime in about this because the sims i ran by myself are much more close to my actual winnings. The EV in the sim i ran is about 23k and im at 20k whereas the archived sim has me at about 50k.

If anyone else wants to check the results for themselves and hopefully straighten all of this out and possibly confirm my suspicion, i would be very thankful. Over the past 650 hours I have used for the most part a pure wonging attack at +1 betting 2x25, 2x50 at +2, 2x100 at +3, 2x150 at +4, and 2x200 at +5. I also have used and most currently use 2x50 at +1, 2x100 at +2, 2x150 at +3, 2x200 at +4, and 2x250 at +5. Regarding heads up play i would wong out aggressively at -1 and play either 1x15 or 1x25 off the top depending on the table minimums. The rules I play are all S17, DAS, and LS with about a 75%-80% avg pen. Sometimes i play 90% pen sometimes 75, on average it's been around 80% and i play 6 and 8 deck games. Im also using the standard of 100/rds an hour.

Quote: ZenKinG

First off, for the people that i haven't pissed off yet, hopefully you will be able to help me on this matter. And for the people who i have pissed off, to be fair, you guys have been a little too sensitive and attacked me or my credentials first for me to get 'cocky' or 'arrogant' in my replies as i tend to not take criticism that lightly, especially unwarranted 'criticism'.

So here is my dilemma. I think my main problem has been i have been 'overestimating' my EV. I've been using the archived sims in CVCX because the parameters are pretty much the same or at least i thought it was. Only recently I found out it has 'split to 4 hands' whereas the games i play can only split to 3 times. I also feel like the archived sims are a bit bugged out on the wonging aspect such as when you select 'play 2 hands at 0' the win rate is higher than when you put 'play 2 hands' at 1 even though my bets are the same with backcounting selected at +1. I started to run my own sims a month or so back and i found out my EV is much less about 50% less than the archived sim. I then started to think to myself something is wrong here, either my sim is wrong or the archived sim is way off.

Surely not being able to split to a 4th hand doesnt warrant a 50% decrease in EV. Hopefully the people who i havent pissed off enough in this thread can chime in about this because the sims i ran by myself are much more close to my actual winnings. The EV in the sim i ran is about 23k and im at 20k whereas the archived sim has me at about 50k.

If anyone else wants to check the results for themselves and hopefully straighten all of this out and possibly confirm my suspicion, i would be very thankful. Over the past 650 hours I have used for the most part a pure wonging attack at +1 betting 2x25, 2x50 at +2, 2x100 at +3, 2x150 at +4, and 2x200 at +5. I also have used and most currently use 2x50 at +1, 2x100 at +2, 2x150 at +3, 2x200 at +4, and 2x250 at +5. Regarding heads up play i would wong out aggressively at -1 and play either 1x15 or 1x25 off the top depending on the table minimums. The rules I play are all S17, DAS, and LS with about a 75%-80% avg pen. Sometimes i play 90% pen sometimes 75, on average it's been around 80% and i play 6 and 8 deck games.

You are definitely overestimating how many threads you need talking about this.

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From my understanding you have been a member of various BJ forums for a while. You must have seen this "Moving to Vegas to AP" story multiple times before( It's like deja vu). I just don't get it, it's puzzling. You seem well written and intelligent. So, how could you not know what direction this was heading, especially given your overall demeanor? ZenKinG "for the people that i haven't pissed off yet." <<< You knew from day 1 that would happen.

It's as if you wanted to create and direct this entire episode into something provocative just so you could make counterarguments and show off or something. Who knows? But, something is rotten in the state of WOV. If not, why are you acting like a ________? Do you have a condition or something we are unaware of?
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Lets assume you and everything is on the up and up, that's just who you are and you just can't help yourself.
Getting cocky, arrogant ,egotistical was and is very counterproductive for YOU.
Just look at all the time and effort you and others have wasted on snarky comments and BS (that you yourself causally incited, seemingly on purpose). I get that you didn't come here for a cheerleading squad and it's all just a bunch of words on a forum, but you are turning off people who could possibility help you.

Your attitude could affect you outside the forum and cost you potential EV.

For example: Let's say something good came up in Vegas, or even in your neck of the woods. Something where there was enough to go around, extra help was needed or just something I wasn't interested in at the time. I certainly wouldn't want to contact someone with your attitude. I would much rather do something with someone else even if they were much less knowledgeable and skilled than someone with your overall demeanor.

Quote: ZenKinG

...Im also using the standard of 100/rds an hour.

Ironically I just posted basically this (overestimating EV) on your response in the 650 hours thread =P.

I'd find it hard pressed to believe you get 100/rds an hour all the time. Not saying it's not possible or that good professionals don't get it, but there's ALWAYS the BS at the casino to deal with... Drunk idiots stopping the game, food/bathroom breaks, walking away in a negative count doesn't give you all the negative hands at a 0 bet unless you watch them, etc, etc, etc. There are so many factors that you almost have to build in a 'buffer' of expectation for mistakes/overestimation. I do this for myself and with my team, and surprise surprise we hit EV more often then not, accounting for these un-predicted mistakes/overestimations.

You should be able to double check yourself with simple math EV +/- SD's, at least for a rough estimate. All you need is AvgAdv, AvgBet, and NumRounds you've played.

EV(x hands) = (AvgBet * x)*(AvgAdv)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x)*OriginalSD...... where OriginalSD = 1.1*AvgBet..... 3SD = 3*SD(x hands).

So what's your:
1) Average Advantage (AvgAdv)
2) Avgerage Bet (AvgBet)
3) Number of Rounds (x hands)


EDIT: Just saw in the Moving Out Thread that your latest simulations are showing you 4SD down. I hope you realize by now this isn't "bad luck" as that's mathematically impossible. You're not playing right, estimating right, or something is wrong. Math doesn't lie. Instead of fighting it you should accept it and look for the holes in your game before your ship sinks entirely.

Quote: Romes

Ironically I just posted basically this (overestimating EV) on your response in the 650 hours thread =P.

I'd find it hard pressed to believe you get 100/rds an hour all the time. Not saying it's not possible or that good professionals don't get it, but there's ALWAYS the BS at the casino to deal with... Drunk idiots stopping the game, food/bathroom breaks, walking away in a negative count doesn't give you all the negative hands at a 0 bet unless you watch them, etc, etc, etc. There are so many factors that you almost have to build in a 'buffer' of expectation for mistakes/overestimation. I do this for myself and with my team, and surprise surprise we hit EV more often then not, accounting for these un-predicted mistakes/overestimations.

You should be able to double check yourself with simple math EV +/- SD's, at least for a rough estimate. All you need is AvgAdv, AvgBet, and NumRounds you've played.

EV(x hands) = (AvgBet * x)*(AvgAdv)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x)*OriginalSD...... where OriginalSD = 1.1*AvgBet..... 3SD = 3*SD(x hands).

So what's your:
1) Average Advantage (AvgAdv)
2) Avgerage Bet (AvgBet)
3) Number of Rounds (x hands)


EDIT: Just saw in the Moving Out Thread that your latest simulations are showing you 4SD down. I hope you realize by now this isn't "bad luck" as that's mathematically impossible. You're not playing right, estimating right, or something is wrong. Math doesn't lie. Instead of fighting it you should accept it and look for the holes in your game before your ship sinks entirely.

Romes you completely misquoted me from the other thread. I said i was 4SD for this recent 2 hours trip. LOL. Geez if i was 4 SD down after 650 hours, id be jumping off the nearest bridge. The point is does the EV sound about right for a 2x25-2x200 and a 2x50-2x250 spread in a S17, DAS, LS game coming in at +1 and out at 0? I say this because I think all this time I have been overestimating it by using the archived sims, which seem to be bugged out. When I ran my own sim the results came pretty close to my actual results in live play. I used the 2x25 - 2x200 as that seems to be a good average of what i've betted all this time. Let's just assume it's been 100 rds/ an hour as I think that's fairly conservative since I also play heads up no mid shoe entry games at about 200 rd/hr i would say and the bet spread for that is 1x25 - 2x 2x200 on average over these 650 hours. Im up 20,200 according to my logs and the EV from the sim is pretty close to that. But when I use the archived sims, it is much higher i dont know why and am asking for someone to confirm my suspicions that i have been overestimating my EV with the archived sims in CVCX cause those archived sims has my EV at about 45k-50k with the same 100 rds/hour and rule set.

Quote: ZenKinG

Romes you completely misquoted me from the other thread. I said i was 4SD for this recent 2 hours trip. LOL. Geez if i was 4 SD down after 650 hours, id be jumping off the nearest bridge. The point is does the EV sound about right for a 2x25-2x200 and a 2x50-2x250 spread in a S17, DAS, LS game coming in at +1 and out at 0? I say this because I think all this time I have been overestimating it by using the archived sims, which seem to be bugged out. When I ran my own sim the results came pretty close to my actual results in live play. I used the 2x25 - 2x200 as that seems to be a good average of what i've betted all this time. Let's just assume it's been 100 rds/ an hour as I think that's fairly conservative since I also play heads up no mid shoe entry games at about 200 rd/hr i would say and the bet spread for that is 1x25 - 2x 2x200 on average over these 650 hours. Im up 20,200 according to my logs and the EV from the sim is pretty close to that. But when I use the archived sims, it is much higher i dont know why and am asking for someone to confirm my suspicions that i have been overestimating my EV with the archived sims in CVCX cause those archived sims has my EV at about 45k-50k with the same 100 rds/hour and rule set.

Methinks you've been underestimating your variance and ROR

Based on slightly different rules but betting at TC as you say, I'm guessing for every 100 hands seen you would play 71 and make $65. If you think you've seen 650*100 = 65k hands, then your expected profit would be 42.5k. I have no idea whether the different rules you quote make that much difference from the UK rules I used.

I guess let me just ask it like this because my sims are not matching the archived sims and for some reason the 6 deck is way off. The 8 deck looks somewhat correct though, idk what i did wrong.

Wonging in at +1
+1 2x50
+2 2x100
+3 2x150
+4 2x200
+5 2x250

S17, DAS, LS 80% pen

What's my EV per hour?

I guess let me just ask it like this because my sims are not matching the archived sims and for some reason the 6 deck is way off. The 8 deck looks somewhat correct though, idk what i did wrong.

Wonging in at +1
+1 2x50
+2 2x100
+3 2x150
+4 2x200
+5 2x250

S17, DAS, LS 80% pen / Wong Halves Full Indices

What's my EV per hour?