Is this normal? What the @#$ is normal, anyway?

Four of the last 5 sessions and 10 of the last 12 have been losers. I'm down more in the last 5, 10 and 20 sessions than ever before, going back 2 1/2 years.

I wonder if I am counting accurately, that I am adding negative cards to the count and subtracting the positive ones. I wonder if I have lost the count, or that it cannot POSSIBLY be this high.

It feels like, every time I believe the count to be in my favor, I start with a ten, the dealer does likewise, I draw a second card of four or five while the dealer squirrels another ten under the one he already has. I expect to see more tens as the hand plays out, but they end up on my fourteen, or under the dealer's first-card 10.

For all the busting I do, the count STAYS high, I believe, so that I'm out there again, with five or six units. There was a time when I would DROOL over a positive count, but lately it's the kiss of death. Regardless of the details, and my selective memory, the bankroll, or lack thereof, provides all the evidence needed. Something is wrong.

Or is it? Have I just been lucky?

I can do all the practicing that I do, at home, alone, but there's no way to simulate playing conditions. I refuse to blame the idiot to my right for taking my 6 or not taking my 10, but still, that guy is not sitting at my kitchen table while I try to figure this out. No way they are going to give me the discard pile so that I can verify my count after a bad shoe. I have a session bankroll going in and one coming out. A is less than B, so whatever happened, however I recall it, it's another loser.

This is supposed to be fun. The saying goes that a bad day on the golf course is better than a good day at work. But I don't leave work any day of the week having paid them more than they paid me. I'm thinking golf is a better hobby, and let me tell you, I REALLY suck at golf.

So cheer me up. It's not this bad. You've seen it worse. At least you got free drinks and meals. It takes your mind off the fools at your job or in your family. It's an indoor garage so your car won't be covered in snow when you leave to go home.

Give me something.

Even if you are counting perfectly, you have maybe a 1 or 2% advantage over the house if you are playing and betting it correctly? That's a pretty thin edge and easily overcome in the short term by bad luck and sub-optimal choices. 5 sessions or 12 sessions or even 25 sessions is nothing.

Also, counting cards to try and make a living or even add to your current income is not supposed to be easy or fun. If it was easy and fun, everyone would do it. It's difficult and it's work.

Keep at it and take the ups and downs (which in the long run the ups should be more than the downs if you are doing it right) or stop doing it and find something else.


ZCore13

Quote: racquet

Four of the last 5 sessions and 10 of the last 12 have been losers. I'm down more in the last 5, 10 and 20 sessions than ever before, going back 2 1/2 years.

I wonder if I am counting accurately, that I am adding negative cards to the count and subtracting the positive ones. I wonder if I have lost the count, or that it cannot POSSIBLY be this high.

If I were you, I'd debug your play. Play against a software blackjack trainer for a few days and verify that your strategy is still working properly, that you haven't had some sort of memory breakdown where you think you're doing the right thing but actually aren't.

If your strategy is correct, then chalk it up to variance. I played a blackjack session once at the Mirage where I pushed over a dozen hands in a row -- even ones where I hit several times. Naturally, the first hand after that long streak of pushes was a loser.

Practice blackjack by yourself with a deck of cards. When you get to the end of the deck you will see if you're counting correctly.

Quote: racquet

...Give me something.

You need to give us something. EVERYTHING you want is easily quantifiable.

How many hours have you played?
What's your average hands per hour?
What's the house edge you typically play?
What's your spread?

If you provide those I can tell you where your EV should be +/- your SD's and you can see just where you fall. Do also recall, in the short run, almost anything can happen. My teammate and I lost for months straight while both playing blackjack... It's a pretty mad game and it's GOOD that you're questioning things. Now do the real research and find your answers.

Next, re-evaluate your game. Is there anywhere you're losing EV? Do you ever lose the count (how often)? Have you tested yourself with your deck estimation? How many indexes do you know 100% and use? Do you come off the top for extra $ too often? Do you frequently play in to more negative counts because you want to see if it'll turn around? You must be honest with yourself with your numbers, and then you will find the real truth. Optimize your game the best you can, run your numbers, and after that you must have faith in math (funny to be an engineer/math person and say have faith) =). The math is right, so IF something is "statistically off" then it's your game and you need to look at every little piece of it to get it where it needs to be.