EV with +2 count wonging

What is the EV if you wong in at +2 and leave if the TC drops below +1 in a shoe game with 80% penetration?
The rules I have mind are the standard ones for a vegas shoe game.

On average, how many hands per 100 dealt will you have a TC of +2 or higher in a shoe game with 80% penetration?



Best regards
Chris

Hey Chris,

What you're looking for is the True Count Frequency of TC +2. Simply google "Blackjack True Count Frequencies" and you should be able to dig around and find something that will give you the percentages (per 100 hands) for TC -8 through TC +8... at least that's what I did a long time ago.

Next, be sure to recognize that your TC frequencies will change pending penetration (for the better the deeper the PEN gets). Likewise they will get worse the lower the PEN gets.

After that, you need to have a hard set value of the house edge, and a hard set value of your bet at TC +2. For this you'll need to have your spread/ramp defined. If you're looking for an hourly EV, then you'll want to plug in your FULL spread and sum up the Gain Per Hand on TC +2 through TC +8 (or whatever the highest point you record is).

I show you how to set this up and calculate your EV in my first (of 3) articles on A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack. I give a generic 75% PEN, show my spread, and show how to calculate my hourly EV given that I was wonging out at anything less than TC -1. I think it has just about all of the information you're looking for. I implore you though to read all 3 articles and then reread them! There's a ton of info that I'm sure you'll find useful in them and you can follow up by commenting on them, finding the A-Z Thread in the Blackjack section, or even private messaging me:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

edit: Also note, the A-Z thread has links on like page 6 or 7 to Google Docs where you can download your own spreadsheet and play with the numbers as you see fit for your games/spreads.

This is exactly what I need as I am new to card counting and are trying to understand it at a deeper level. I will take a dive into your articles this weekend!

Your help is really appreciated Romes!


Best regards
Chris