calculating probability of not busting on a hit
November 4th, 2016 at 6:20:44 PM
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Say I'm dealt a 7 and a 5, I choose to hit. I know how to calculate the chances of that hit being 21, but how would I find the probability of not busting i.e. calculate the probability of getting 21 or less?
November 4th, 2016 at 8:47:42 PM
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If you know how to calculate the chances of getting a 9, then you know how to calculate the chances of getting an 8,7,6,5,4,3,2 or A, right?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
November 4th, 2016 at 11:25:02 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsIf you know how to calculate the chances of getting a 9, then you know how to calculate the chances of getting an 8,7,6,5,4,3,2 or A, right?
I will add to this advice that if you know the probability of getting a 10 is p, then you also know the chance of getting a card other than a 10 is 1 - p. That should speed things up :p.
November 5th, 2016 at 12:50:14 PM
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Are you talking about multiple hits or just one hit? One hit is simple. Multiple hits, not so simple.
November 5th, 2016 at 4:45:34 PM
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It's pretty simple. 4/13 you bust, 9/13 you don't.
November 5th, 2016 at 6:24:26 PM
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Bust rate for hard 16 = 61.5%
15 = 58.6%
14= 55%
13= 50.82%
12= 46.13%
To calculate, a little complicated .
15 = 58.6%
14= 55%
13= 50.82%
12= 46.13%
To calculate, a little complicated .
November 5th, 2016 at 7:05:40 PM
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Ok, go to blackjackinfo.com, search for " The most common myth in blackjack " read thru the article, go to the comments, find the answer from Kent Smith, about how to calculate the bust rates for all the hard hands.
November 6th, 2016 at 6:42:00 AM
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Your chance of busting with one hit card and a total of 12 is 30.7%. There are only 4 cards that will bust you, T, J, Q and K.
November 7th, 2016 at 6:14:00 AM
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@RS Yes, I'd like to expand it to that, maybe I was dealt 2 2's or something and already know I'll hit at least twice. Any ideas on how to go about doing that?
Thanks for the replies everyone! As a side note I'm not looking for percentages as much as the process of how to get there.
Thanks for the replies everyone! As a side note I'm not looking for percentages as much as the process of how to get there.
November 7th, 2016 at 7:42:47 AM
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check out: gambling simplicity . com
it should give you all the help you need and if you send me a email i'll give you a free copy of my book
get in touch with me at gamblingsimplicity@gmail . com
i'm happy to help
November 7th, 2016 at 5:58:52 PM
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So, you have 9,7 hard 16 , 5/13 will give you 17- 21, 8/13 will bust you.
You have 9,6 hard 15, 2-6 ( 5/13) will give you 17 -21, 7/13 ( 7,8,9,10, J, q,K) will bust you. Then there is Ace, then you have hard 16. You repeat the culculation of hard 16 .
If this is what you want to know, then look up the web site I refer to you earlier. Ken Smith can explain it better.
You have 9,6 hard 15, 2-6 ( 5/13) will give you 17 -21, 7/13 ( 7,8,9,10, J, q,K) will bust you. Then there is Ace, then you have hard 16. You repeat the culculation of hard 16 .
If this is what you want to know, then look up the web site I refer to you earlier. Ken Smith can explain it better.
