Steeper Ramp?

I recall a thread where the idea was presented of increasing the betting ramp earlier in a positive count, since the house edge was low enough to justify it, and the increased frequency of a lower count meant there would be more opportunity to bet a larger amount with an advantage. But I can't find the thread, and this suggestion was buried in it somewhere, not as part of the original subject. I know this is covered elsewhere, and in my business RTFM is the usual response for asking the same question over and over, but nevertheless...

Assume 6D, S17, DAS, Double any 2, Split to 4 hands, no RSA, Late surrender. The Wizard calculator says that's a .35361% house edge.

In this game, my ramp is as follows:
<-2=0
-2 through +1 = 1 unit
+2 = 2 units
+3 = 4 units
+4 = 6 units
+5 = 7 units
+6 = 9 units
> +6 = 11 units (although I have either never seen +6 or lacked the nerve to put out that much)
This is at a $10 table, where 1 unit = $10.
Assuming a +.5% advantage per positive increase in count, +1 is a slightly positive position.
Does it make sense to go 2 units at +1 instead of +2?
And to have a steeper jump at +3?

Also, I thought I saw, once, a table of true count frequency - in 100 hands, you will see -2 or less so many times, -1 or less so many, up to +6 which you see once every 99 times, and so on. With such a table, I could do it myself, plugging in a ramp of my choice to see the results. I recall it might be in Wong's Professional Blackjack, but there are so many tables... so many.

Most players typically place their max bet around +4.

TC frequency will depend on # decks played and penetration.

I'd purchase CVCX, would help immensely with sims and figuring out your hourly EV, optimal bet ramp, risk, etc.

Hey racquet... You're probably referring to when I responded to either your or someone else when posting their game/spread. Most people don't realize that True Count +3 is the most valuable True Count to the player because it's the most bang or your buck. It's the best average of actual advantage with frequency seen.

Also, with what you've posted here I would again suggest you up your bet earlier too. The game you have is a good game. On any game where the house edge is less than .5% you can up your bet at TC +1. It will help smooth your ramp and you will capitalize on the small amount of EV you can bring in by betting more even at that point.

I would also recommend if you're very serious to purchase software to help you firm your numbers 100%. Personally I have spreadsheets that take the average number of hands and average 75% penetration and usually that's a good starting point for me (I've compared them to the software sims and they're very close, and usually estimate low which is good in my opinion - because you should do slightly better =p).

That being said, I'm showing with your game/spread above an hourly of $9.25... I'm also assuming you wong out to anything less than TC -1 and have $10 units.

If we were to re-work your spread as to take advantage of the advantage you do carry at TC +1, have your biggest jump in spread at TC +3, and optimize your spread to have your big bet out by TC +4 (though like RS said, a lot of ppl have it out at TC +4, but if you're playing at a limited number of places then you might want to back it off to TC +5 for longevity)... like so:

TC < -1 = 0
TC -1 = 1
TC 0 = 1
TC +1 = 2
TC +2 = 4
TC +3 = 7
TC >= +4 = 9

For that spread I'm showing an hourly of $13.30... With the same assumptions as above.

You're gaining about (an additional) 16 cents per hand at TC +1 by betting 2 units on it. Small, but after 1,000,000 hands you'll have played roughly 110,000 hands at TC +1, which would equate to an additional $17,600. Again, this is for the assumption of $10 units.

So simply by re-working your spread (when and how much) we've increased your hourly EV by 43%! It pays to play with yourself... I mean your numbers =).

Romes,

Exactly what I remember and expected. Much appreciated.

So you'd never go above 9 units, regardless of the count? I imagine +5 and higher is such a rare event that it's not worth worrying about, and <-2 is the time to take that phone call or bathroom break.

I recall a spreadsheet I had seen somewhere and copied that had a column for count, another with the number of hands out of 100 you could expect to see that count, and a column for amount bet. Varying the entries in that column would tell you, for whatever ramp, your expected return per 100 hands over the range of true counts you would see. I recall the number of hands per true count range looked like a bell curve - you will see a lot of -1, 0, and +1 counts, and fewer occurrences on either side of those. I had it, but I lost it. Was it in one of your A to Z articles? If not, what software would you recommend for a newly serious AP? It's gotta be easy to operate - I keep losing consciousness and hitting my head on the desk trying to work my way through Wong's 100 Tables and Five appendices.

Romes,

Oops. Found it in your A-Z series. Like I said... RTFM!

Quote: racquet

Romes,

Exactly what I remember and expected. Much appreciated.

Glad you found the info useful!

Quote: racquet

So you'd never go above 9 units, regardless of the count? I imagine +5 and higher is such a rare event that it's not worth worrying about, and <-2 is the time to take that phone call or bathroom break...

Oh I definitely would spread past 9 units =P... I just took the assumption that was your "big bet" because that's what your spread currently is set up to.

If you're playing a shoe game, I'd get your spread up to about 14-15 units if heat wise will allow. Here's an example of how I'd spread from 1-15 ($10-$150):

TC < -1 = 0
TC -1 = 1
TC 0 = 1
TC +1 = 3
TC +2 = 5
TC +3 = 9
TC +4 = 12
TC >=+5 = 15

Now for THIS spread, I'm showing an hourly EV of ~$21... A bit better than $9.50, huh? =). Don't forget to make sure your bankroll and RoR considerations are taken in to account before jumping spreads to make more EV!

Also, I'll reiterate this in this thread too... Don't be afraid to play with different levels. You might be able to make the same $20/hour in EV at the $25 tables, with potentially a better game and a smaller spread! Spreading 1-8 on a $25 table with the SAME rules (0=25, 1=50, 2=100, 3=150, 4+=200) would net you ~$29/hour, and get you better comps. However this is ALL subject to your place, heat, etc. Some places don't give a S$%T about the red chip tables but hawk the $25 min tables, so take all of that in to consideration.

Just like the article(s) suggest... Play with it ;-).

I've always played at the lowest level tables, and never, ever, felt any heat. But I do know that a $150 bet at a $10 table would draw attention, not to mention the focus of all the other players. Geesh. Split those 9's against a dealer 6, draw a 2 on the first one, double it, get a 3, and then another 9 on the other 9, split those and suddenly there's $450 out there. I'm comin' to be with you, Elizabeth!

I do imagine that the $25 table draws more attention, simply because the $5 and $10 tables don't. They have to be watching somebody.

My biggest change is going to be, I think, jumping my bet to 2 units at +1, and increasing the slope of the line from there. But I think $90 is going to be my top end, also because it avoids any "Black Action!" calls. But yes, I will play with it. Thanks.

Quote: racquet

...My biggest change is going to be, I think, jumping my bet to 2 units at +1, and increasing the slope of the line from there. But I think $90 is going to be my top end, also because it avoids any "Black Action!" calls. But yes, I will play with it. Thanks.

When starting out at my local casino I found myself in the same hole of $100 bet = "Checks play!" callout. So I played with it and started spreading to 2 hands keeping them under $100... Never got checks play called out on me for 2 hands of $90 =).

Also, the reason I suggested the $25 game is you're right, they "might" watch those games more, however, the advantage you would hold with the EV you're looking for is you could play a SMALLER spread at the $25 tables. $100 black action call is at 10-1 essentially. On the $25 tables the equivalent would be $250 bet, but I think in the post above I figured you could get MORE EV with an 8-1 spread ($200 top bet)... but this has to be within your bankroll/RoR requirements.

Lastly, don't give casinos too much credit. Would it blow to get the boot from your local casino? YES... Would it blow WORSE if for the next 5 years you could have been making DOUBLE the amount of EV because they're completely clueless but you were just afraid to bet a bit more? In my opinion, that would be far worse. Remember, you're not doing anything illegal. Play the game how you want to play it =).

At my place the $10 tables are the lowest ones, so an occasional spread to 2 hands is not likely - unless you're playing two spots all the time. If you wong out with a phone call or restroom break, you lose the second spot to someone who's waiting to play. Only fair, which is what I think when I am the guy waiting his turn.

My bankroll won't support the inevitable bad patch at a $25 minimum. The worst thing would be to be scared off the top end - where the potential reward is the greatest - for lack of money: on hand or in the nest egg.

It's not a job or an income stream - it's for enjoyment and the satisfaction of knowing I am beating them. For all the fun and excitement, there's a lot of disappointment just under the surface at the casino, with everyone having a story about how much they won, and how much they gave back. I'm not expecting to win all the time, but given enough of a sample size, I am confident that I will come out ahead in the long term, and I eat and drink for free. So yes, it WOULD blow worse to get the boot.