Double deck penetration

I have made a little over $15,000 this summer playing blackjack (counting cards using Uston APC) in Wendover, NV, which is about a 2 hour drive from me.

Recently, I got banned from their casino when I tried upping my bet spread
from $25-200 to $100-800. Unfortunate, because they offered a single deck
game, good rules, and average-to-excellent penetration, depending on the
shift.

My next move is to attempt to take on Vegas. I made an exploratory trip to
the Aria a few days ago, and found that they deal a double-deck game with
decent/good rules, and they don't blink an eye at the bigger action unlike
the smaller casinos in Wendover. The rules at the Aria were exactly as advertised on the most recent wizard of vegas blackjack survey and the game at the Wynn also looks like it may be beatable.

The only worry I have is about penetration. They are giving about 60-65%penetration by my estimate. I made a couple thousand dollars during my exploratory trip, but I cut it short and came home early because I wasn't 100% sure the game was beatable. I did not seem to be getting very much heat at all, even with that 1-8 spread, which makes me think that the Ariadoesn't think the game can be beaten at that penetration.

Anyone out there that knows the answer to this question? Perhaps you've written some sim software that can do it, or you've had the same question and already figured out the answer... In general, what kind of penetration do I need in a double deck game for it to be beatable? What kind of edge could I expect with 60% penetration, betting 1-8?

Dude u need to buy CVCX. 60% pen 1-8 on a dd if you're spreading 25-200 is probably worth around $50 an hour. whats your bankroll? what risk can you tolerate?

Bankroll is $20k/$40k depending on whether or not I'm going with a partner. I can tolerate a really relatively high risk of ruin, Im fine with around 20%. And I would be spreading $100-800 in vegas.

So about CVCX... this software can answer the question I'm asking? I will definitely buy it if I know its going to be useful.

Don't underestimate Ted Whiting, the head surveillance guy at Aria.

It's beatable for a good hourly rate especially if it is a stand 17 game. A 100 to 800 spread will attract attention
, so camping out is not an option really. It's probably a 200 an hour ev game, but your ror is really high on a 20k bankroll.

Good luck

lol!!

20k isn't enough to spread to $800. 40k is closer but still like double Kelly.

Im aware of the relatively high RoR... I dont need a 1-2% RoR though, as I said I am comfortable with a higher risk/higher reward game.

Quote: kid

Im aware of the relatively high RoR... I dont need a 1-2% RoR though, as I said I am comfortable with a higher risk/higher reward game.

But why? 25-200 or even 50-400 is going to lower it quite a bit whiless providing a decent profit.

1-6 spread ($100-$600) should lessen the heat, lower your variance, and still keep a pretty high hourly.

Yes, 60% penetration games can still definitely be beat.

You definitely need to purchase CVCX... For the prices you're playing it's not even a minimum bet and you can answer pretty much every single question about a specific blackjack game possible... You can put in different penetration, spreads, counts, etc, etc, and see exactly what your win rate, N0, etc, etc, are.

1-8 spread at DD $25 - $200 is not going to last long at most strip properties. Open for at least $75, sometimes $50, sometimes $100. 1-6 spread will get you more longevity. Playing $100 - $800 is pushing it. $100 - $600 is better but still will get you noticed. And if you really want to flame out play S17 with these spreads.

All I'm saying is look at the long term. If you play CET or MGM/Mirage and get backed off you'll be restricted at all sister properties. Don't kill the golden goose.