Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 5th, 2016 at 7:40:48 PM permalink
I was curious if anyone had any idea of the odds against either or both of these two incidents. They both happened in Vegas in 1988.

#1. Sluts-o-Fun, single deck. I get dealt 20 (soft and hard) six times in a row. I lose all six hands. I then get dealt a hard 12 six times in a row. Playing normal basic strategy, I win all six hands. The two streaks happen consecutively, that is, twelve total hands in a row.

#2. Horsepoo downtown, single deck. My final hand is A23456 of hearts, for 21. Assuming I would have played normal basic strategy, the cards would have had to come out in one of only a few particular orders--for instance, if my first three cards were A,2,6, I wouldn't have hit again; if they were A,x, or x,A, I would have doubled against some upcards; if the dealer was showing a 9, 10, or A, I would have been hitting a combo like A,3,4 when I wouldn't otherwise have.

I think #1 is relatively easy to calculate, but #2 might be, because of all the contingencies, very hard to figure. Have at it!!!
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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September 5th, 2016 at 7:49:52 PM permalink
Reminds me of ace of spades.... That's some streak in example one
No longer hiring, donít ask because I wonít hire you either
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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September 5th, 2016 at 10:41:56 PM permalink
Re: #2. Why did you hit soft 20, if you would have stood on other soft hands?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
BlueEagle
BlueEagle
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September 5th, 2016 at 10:54:00 PM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

#2. Horsepoo downtown, single deck. My final hand is A23456 of hearts, for 21.


The cards were dealt in that order? I was confused as well as to why you would take another card after A234. Anyway, I imagine the odds are pretty high against being dealt A23456 of the same suit.

Edited to add:
I'm guessing you were dealt either A2 or A3, hit and got either 2 or 3, hit and got 6, hit and got 4, hit and got 5.

So I infer you are asking for the odds of being dealt A23456 of the same suit in any order while adhering to basic strategy.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 5th, 2016 at 11:33:28 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Re: #2. Why did you hit soft 20, if you would have stood on other soft hands?



Never did. The hand wasn't in that exact order. My last hit--which it would have to be, if you think about it--was either the 5 or the 6.

I vaguely remember starting with something like a hard 6, then hitting to 12, 16, and 21, but I'm not sure...anyway, there are other ways that hand could be reached.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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September 5th, 2016 at 11:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Never did. The hand wasn't in that exact order. My last hit--which it would have to be, if you think about it--was either the 5 or the 6.

I vaguely remember starting with something like a hard 6, then hitting to 12, 16, and 21, but I'm not sure...anyway, there are other ways that hand could be reached.



Ah. I misunderstood what you wrote, thinking you meant they came in that order (the usual way people list hands on here, actually ). Yes,.the 5 or 6 would have to come last. And hitting it in order made sense, except the soft 20. Even that would make sense if you were going for the 6 card bonus sidebet somebody just came out with (I forget the name).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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September 6th, 2016 at 12:03:07 AM permalink
Okay, here is my walk down memory lane:

Cheap casino.... low limit BJ. I think it was that casino that was built over a flood drainage channel. Name escapes me. (Heck, these days the memory of what I had for breakfast escapes my overtaxed brain cells).

I had hard 18, Dealer had 20. Don't ask me how I knew dealer had 20, I just knew it. I wanted an additional card because somehow I knew it was a 3. Don't ask me how ..... Finally dealer announces Hitting Hard 18 and pauses to give time for Floor Person to materialize behind her. FP okays it and yep, it is indeed a 3, so my 21 did beat the dealer's 20.

Fast forward to today: I doubt I could even remember how to drive to the local Seminole casino, much less remember how to count on my fingers.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 6th, 2016 at 12:32:31 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Okay, here is my walk down memory lane:

Cheap casino.... low limit BJ. I think it was that casino that was built over a flood drainage channel. Name escapes me. (Heck, these days the memory of what I had for breakfast escapes my overtaxed brain cells).

I had hard 18, Dealer had 20. Don't ask me how I knew dealer had 20, I just knew it. I wanted an additional card because somehow I knew it was a 3. Don't ask me how ..... Finally dealer announces Hitting Hard 18 and pauses to give time for Floor Person to materialize behind her. FP okays it and yep, it is indeed a 3, so my 21 did beat the dealer's 20.

Fast forward to today: I doubt I could even remember how to drive to the local Seminole casino, much less remember how to count on my fingers.



I have a similar memory. I was sitting third base at a full table. I had a $100 bet out, a hard 17, and the dealer had an Ace showing. I just KNEW I was going to lose if I stood, so when it was my turn, I took a hit. It was a face card, and I busted with a hard 27. The dealer turned over a 4 in the hole, hit with a 10 (which would have busted him if I hadn't taken a hit), and then a 6, making 21 and wiping out the table. The other players stared at me in disbelief. One got up from her chair and...

I woke the following morning in the desert fifteen miles north of town, stripped naked, with "LOSER" spray-painted on my chest and the Ace of Spades shoved up my butt. Moral: never play third base at a table full of little old ladies!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 6th, 2016 at 1:49:24 AM permalink
Memory really is unreliable. As sure as we're sure, we're not accurate often.
I am a robot.

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