Current Game Plan
September 1st, 2016 at 10:24:31 PM
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Hello forum, I just wanted to get some thoughts on this game for my local. Just a little background first since I am new to the forum. I have been playing blackjack for 5 years and learned how to count cards maybe four years ago. Being using the Hi-Lo and for the longest time just played basic strategy no indices (besides insurance) betting red chips with maybe 1-10 spread just for fun more than anything. Last July I had a $2,000 bankroll and decided to throw all caution to the wind and decided to unload one month at one of the local casinos (different from the one I will be going to now) with a spread of $25 - $500. I had a shit hot month and made $20,000. I was putting in a decent amount of hours (20+ hours a week). Anyway long story short I used $15,000 or so of the $22,000 bankroll to pay off some debts, buy some junk and pay for me and my wife's honeymoon to London. I continued to play with the extremely high RoR with the remaining $7,000 and lost it in 2 trips (which I figured would most likely happen soon). I have taken a year off now from playing live (still been practicing on CVBJ) and am ready to get back at it. I have a $5,000 bankroll now and would like to play now at a much more tolerable level. Here are the rules of the game I will be playing and the bet ramp I am considering.
Hi-Lo using the Sweet 16 for indices (splitting 10's really gets their panties in a bunch) 6 Deck (75%-80% pen) H17 DAS RSA DAT No Surrender $5-$100 spread. I will Wong out as much as possible at TC -2. (I can't see doing it at -1 because there is only 1 or 2 games open under $25 min.) Is the RoR at this level at least near 10% and the EV better than laughable ($15 an hour+). Do you expect much heat on a ramp like this on a $5 min 6 deck game at a small joint that does have $25 min $1,000 max DD games?
Hi-Lo using the Sweet 16 for indices (splitting 10's really gets their panties in a bunch) 6 Deck (75%-80% pen) H17 DAS RSA DAT No Surrender $5-$100 spread. I will Wong out as much as possible at TC -2. (I can't see doing it at -1 because there is only 1 or 2 games open under $25 min.) Is the RoR at this level at least near 10% and the EV better than laughable ($15 an hour+). Do you expect much heat on a ramp like this on a $5 min 6 deck game at a small joint that does have $25 min $1,000 max DD games?
| TC | Wager |
|---|---|
| -2 | $0 |
| -1 | $5 |
| +1 | $10 |
| +2 | $30 |
| +3 | $60 |
| +4 | $100 |
September 6th, 2016 at 11:28:42 AM
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Hey corkster, and welcome to the forums.
Seems as though you've been on the roller coaster ride, but at least it left you on a high =P. Quite the adventure and lesson I'm sure. I've got a few things to comment on from what you've said, feel free to consider and revise, or tell me to shove off =).
1) So I have the House Edge for the rules above as .57%... Yet I see you upping your bet at TC +1 to $10. Is this for ramping cover because you don't want to jump at TC +2? Given (on average) each TC is worth ~.5% to the player, at TC +1 you're still gambling with "almost" no house (or player) edge. All this bet does is 2 things. One, it will up your variance... and two, it will slightly lose you a bit more money than just continuing to bet $5 until TC +1.5 or 2 (if you like using whole numbers, like I do too).
2) Your biggest jump in spread is from TC +3 to TC +4. Ideally your biggest jump in spread should be from TC +2 to TC +3. Why you ask? Because of the hand frequencies. TC +3 is that special mix of player advantage and how frequently you see it. TC +3 is the most important TC to the player in this game. Thus, I would recommend your biggest hike at TC +3 to have "most" of your big bet out, if you're going to in fact have your BB out by TC +4.
3) How's the tolerance at this casino? I assume the casino you want to employ this spread on is not the same casino you previously spread $25-$500? I also presume you got a bit of heat at that casino? If you didn't get heat, then this spread should also be fine I'd think... Otherwise, just note that $5-$100 is a fairly aggressive spread. If you're looking to smash and grab then you're fine. However if you're looking to log 20+ hours per week at this place, I would think that this will get you noticed (eventually) even at the $5 tables.
4) I'll run some more numbers in a minute, just taking a quick look at the "old" (and yes mostly outdated) 100 big bet rule. If your BB is $100, then by the old standard you'd need a $10,000 bankroll. In my experiences though with SIM's/etc you usually actually need a little bit less than the 100 big bets though.
So let's run some math. Your N0 is probably 'around' 50,000 hands. If you have an average advantage of 1.5%, and an average bet (according to the spread below) of 13.70 (assuming sitting out/etc at < TC -1) then we can calculate your standard deviations to determine bankroll sizing as well. Kind of a reverse engineering way of getting your bankroll requirements, but it's simple math that can be done right now and no need of a SIM (though if you want to be a serious counter then I'd suggest getting simulation software).
OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 13.7 = 15.76
EV(x hands) = (AvgBet*x)*(AvgAdv)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD
EV(50,000) = (13.7*50,000)*(.015) = 10,275
SD(50,000) = Sqrt(50,000) * 15.76 = $3,524.04 ... 3SD = $10,572.12
So you can easily replicate this and spot check 5k hands, 10k hands, 25k hands, 100k hands, etc... See (with 99% mathematical certainty) what's the most you could ever be down...
EV(1,000) = $206
SD(1,000) = $498 ...3SD = $1,495... so the most you could be down at this point is $206 - $1,495 = -$1,289
EV(5,000) = $1,027
SD(5,000) = $1,114 ...3SD = $3,342... so the most you could be down at this point is $1,027 - $3,342 = -$2,315
EV(10,000) = $2,055
SD(10,000) = $1,576 ...3SD = $4,728... so the most you could be down at this point is $2,055 - $4,728 = -$2,673
EV(25,000) = $5,138
SD(25,000) = $2,492 ...3SD = $7,476... so the most you could be down at this point is $5,138 - $7,476 = -$2,337
...See the pattern? At just about ANY point in your journey to N0 (the long run) the most you could be down will be about $2500. This is with 99% mathematical certainty. Thus, if you have a $2600 bankroll you should be carrying a <1% RoR... At a $5k bankroll you should easily be around .5% RoR.
The numbers above were based on this spread:
TC < -1 = 0
TC -1 = $5
TC 0 = $5
TC +1 = $5
TC +2 = $20
TC +3 = $50
TC +4 = $75
TC +5 = $100
I also took a look at making TC +3 $60 then TC +4 = max ($100)... The difference in EV/hour was about $1, so I think this spread will attract less heat too... and it focuses your largest jump in spread around TC +3. I give example spread sheets that you can play with in the first article (I think the google doc spreadsheets are linked in the A-Z thread on these forums on like page 6). Do note that either way, this is a pretty aggressive spread for a $5 game. If a PB notices you going from $5 to $100 then back to $5 you might indeed get some heat. I talk a bit more about this and handling it in the articles as well.
I talk a lot about this in my 3rd article, mostly in the Q/A section. If you haven't checked them out, I'd suggest taking a peek at them:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/
Seems as though you've been on the roller coaster ride, but at least it left you on a high =P. Quite the adventure and lesson I'm sure. I've got a few things to comment on from what you've said, feel free to consider and revise, or tell me to shove off =).
1) So I have the House Edge for the rules above as .57%... Yet I see you upping your bet at TC +1 to $10. Is this for ramping cover because you don't want to jump at TC +2? Given (on average) each TC is worth ~.5% to the player, at TC +1 you're still gambling with "almost" no house (or player) edge. All this bet does is 2 things. One, it will up your variance... and two, it will slightly lose you a bit more money than just continuing to bet $5 until TC +1.5 or 2 (if you like using whole numbers, like I do too).
2) Your biggest jump in spread is from TC +3 to TC +4. Ideally your biggest jump in spread should be from TC +2 to TC +3. Why you ask? Because of the hand frequencies. TC +3 is that special mix of player advantage and how frequently you see it. TC +3 is the most important TC to the player in this game. Thus, I would recommend your biggest hike at TC +3 to have "most" of your big bet out, if you're going to in fact have your BB out by TC +4.
3) How's the tolerance at this casino? I assume the casino you want to employ this spread on is not the same casino you previously spread $25-$500? I also presume you got a bit of heat at that casino? If you didn't get heat, then this spread should also be fine I'd think... Otherwise, just note that $5-$100 is a fairly aggressive spread. If you're looking to smash and grab then you're fine. However if you're looking to log 20+ hours per week at this place, I would think that this will get you noticed (eventually) even at the $5 tables.
4) I'll run some more numbers in a minute, just taking a quick look at the "old" (and yes mostly outdated) 100 big bet rule. If your BB is $100, then by the old standard you'd need a $10,000 bankroll. In my experiences though with SIM's/etc you usually actually need a little bit less than the 100 big bets though.
So let's run some math. Your N0 is probably 'around' 50,000 hands. If you have an average advantage of 1.5%, and an average bet (according to the spread below) of 13.70 (assuming sitting out/etc at < TC -1) then we can calculate your standard deviations to determine bankroll sizing as well. Kind of a reverse engineering way of getting your bankroll requirements, but it's simple math that can be done right now and no need of a SIM (though if you want to be a serious counter then I'd suggest getting simulation software).
OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 13.7 = 15.76
EV(x hands) = (AvgBet*x)*(AvgAdv)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD
EV(50,000) = (13.7*50,000)*(.015) = 10,275
SD(50,000) = Sqrt(50,000) * 15.76 = $3,524.04 ... 3SD = $10,572.12
So you can easily replicate this and spot check 5k hands, 10k hands, 25k hands, 100k hands, etc... See (with 99% mathematical certainty) what's the most you could ever be down...
EV(1,000) = $206
SD(1,000) = $498 ...3SD = $1,495... so the most you could be down at this point is $206 - $1,495 = -$1,289
EV(5,000) = $1,027
SD(5,000) = $1,114 ...3SD = $3,342... so the most you could be down at this point is $1,027 - $3,342 = -$2,315
EV(10,000) = $2,055
SD(10,000) = $1,576 ...3SD = $4,728... so the most you could be down at this point is $2,055 - $4,728 = -$2,673
EV(25,000) = $5,138
SD(25,000) = $2,492 ...3SD = $7,476... so the most you could be down at this point is $5,138 - $7,476 = -$2,337
...See the pattern? At just about ANY point in your journey to N0 (the long run) the most you could be down will be about $2500. This is with 99% mathematical certainty. Thus, if you have a $2600 bankroll you should be carrying a <1% RoR... At a $5k bankroll you should easily be around .5% RoR.
The numbers above were based on this spread:
TC < -1 = 0
TC -1 = $5
TC 0 = $5
TC +1 = $5
TC +2 = $20
TC +3 = $50
TC +4 = $75
TC +5 = $100
I also took a look at making TC +3 $60 then TC +4 = max ($100)... The difference in EV/hour was about $1, so I think this spread will attract less heat too... and it focuses your largest jump in spread around TC +3. I give example spread sheets that you can play with in the first article (I think the google doc spreadsheets are linked in the A-Z thread on these forums on like page 6). Do note that either way, this is a pretty aggressive spread for a $5 game. If a PB notices you going from $5 to $100 then back to $5 you might indeed get some heat. I talk a bit more about this and handling it in the articles as well.
I talk a lot about this in my 3rd article, mostly in the Q/A section. If you haven't checked them out, I'd suggest taking a peek at them:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
September 6th, 2016 at 12:36:36 PM
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Hi,corkster, and welcome! Congrats on the casino paying for your honeymoon. Smart move in so many ways....
I'm not a counter. But I wonder whether it would help with potential heat if your top was $95. A lot of counting threads mention $100 as a trigger threshold. Just curious, Romes and others, whether there's any good reason to do that, or whether it's a significant amount to not win at the top of a ramp, given how seldom the deck is that skewed.
I'm not a counter. But I wonder whether it would help with potential heat if your top was $95. A lot of counting threads mention $100 as a trigger threshold. Just curious, Romes and others, whether there's any good reason to do that, or whether it's a significant amount to not win at the top of a ramp, given how seldom the deck is that skewed.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:44:49 PM
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First of all, congrats on your earlier win. You extracted most of the money, which is a good thing. Now a cold splash of reality:
1. You were very lucky, not just in your results but in your not getting any kind of heat, or at least not being backed off. You mention that it was a small casino, so your win should have drawn a lot of attention (and for all you know, it did, after the fact).
2. 1-20 unit spreads and a bankroll of 50 max bets are things we'd all like to be able to accomplish, but in reality, such a spread draws inevitable heat unless the suits in the pit are all lobotomized baboons (which can't be ruled out, of course). And your BR, without running the numbers, seems much too small to me. You need to be insulated against those horrible sessions when you go minus thirty big bets. Such disasters WILL happen, and sooner rather than later.
3. Your EV depends on the parameters of the count you are using, but given that your biggest bet, $100, will be returning between $1 and $2 when you make it (depending on how often that is), that $15/hr figure seems like a practical maximum.
So feel free to take the plunge, but I would expect either heat or that bad boy, variance, to bring you to a screeching halt. Hope I'm wrong.
1. You were very lucky, not just in your results but in your not getting any kind of heat, or at least not being backed off. You mention that it was a small casino, so your win should have drawn a lot of attention (and for all you know, it did, after the fact).
2. 1-20 unit spreads and a bankroll of 50 max bets are things we'd all like to be able to accomplish, but in reality, such a spread draws inevitable heat unless the suits in the pit are all lobotomized baboons (which can't be ruled out, of course). And your BR, without running the numbers, seems much too small to me. You need to be insulated against those horrible sessions when you go minus thirty big bets. Such disasters WILL happen, and sooner rather than later.
3. Your EV depends on the parameters of the count you are using, but given that your biggest bet, $100, will be returning between $1 and $2 when you make it (depending on how often that is), that $15/hr figure seems like a practical maximum.
So feel free to take the plunge, but I would expect either heat or that bad boy, variance, to bring you to a screeching halt. Hope I'm wrong.
September 6th, 2016 at 1:46:11 PM
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Yes babs, that is a threshold at some places. Even in my articles I point out that one local shop calls out "checks play" at $100... but they don't if I bet 2 hands of $90. This is one way I bet $180 while not getting called out for betting over $100.
I would also agree with making your spread up to $90... 95 would result in funky blackjack payouts that while you could get more you have to pay more attention to not get shorted and overall in general I think slows the game down as most dealers will stop and recount 2-3 times to make sure they pay you correctly.
I would also agree with making your spread up to $90... 95 would result in funky blackjack payouts that while you could get more you have to pay more attention to not get shorted and overall in general I think slows the game down as most dealers will stop and recount 2-3 times to make sure they pay you correctly.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
September 29th, 2016 at 4:49:59 AM
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I appreciate the hard work and feedback sorry it took so long to get back to you guys i have been super busy. I will take all the information into consideration.
September 29th, 2016 at 6:22:51 AM
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No worries. Just glad it didn't fall on def ears =P. Don't be afraid to post follow up questions here, on the articles, or PM me if you want.Quote: corkster719I appreciate the hard work and feedback sorry it took so long to get back to you guys i have been super busy. I will take all the information into consideration.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
November 6th, 2016 at 6:40:47 PM
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Seems like a decent plan. You should probably incorporate some $25 min play as well in order to get lucrative heads up play, but this will require aggressive wonging. Your plan looks to be around full kelly, which is a wild ride. Best of luck. Playing with 50 max bets is aggressive, but with smaller bankrolls you almost have to be aggressive in order to get a decent win rate. This is ok if you can afford to lose this 5k. With all due deference to the mod, a top bet of $95 is a bad idea. You want to bet mono colour units and bet in as high denomination units as possible. This will speed up the game. More rounds per hour is more money for you.
